Maverick17
Joined: Mar 4, 2011
• Posts: 321
October 16th, 2017 at 2:23:25 PM permalink
If playing the baccarat variant "commission-free baccarat" with a fortune bonus bet that pays 40-1, what is the standard deviation of the bet?

The 40-1 bet I am speaking of is the one that pays only when the bank wins with a 3 card total of 7, if the player beats the bank, the bet does not pay.
Statistics don't lie, they deceive.
Maverick17
Joined: Mar 4, 2011
• Posts: 321
October 16th, 2017 at 2:24:33 PM permalink
Secondarily, if one were to have played say 350-ish hands and not hit a bonus, how "normal" is that?
Statistics don't lie, they deceive.
CrystalMath
Joined: May 10, 2011
• Posts: 1584
October 16th, 2017 at 2:44:49 PM permalink
I get a standard deviation of 6.08.
You have about 1 in 2913 chance of losing 350 hands.
I heart Crystal Math.
ChesterDog
Joined: Jul 26, 2010
• Posts: 668
October 16th, 2017 at 5:30:18 PM permalink
Quote: CrystalMath

I get a standard deviation of 6.08.
You have about 1 in 2913 chance of losing 350 hands.

Eliot's page's numbers agree with yours.

He gives a SD of 6.0849, and 0.977466 as the probability of losing the bet. And doing 1 / 0.977466^350 gives 2913.