October 16th, 2017 at 2:23:25 PM
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If playing the baccarat variant "commission-free baccarat" with a fortune bonus bet that pays 40-1, what is the standard deviation of the bet?

The 40-1 bet I am speaking of is the one that pays only when the bank wins with a 3 card total of 7, if the player beats the bank, the bet does not pay.

The 40-1 bet I am speaking of is the one that pays only when the bank wins with a 3 card total of 7, if the player beats the bank, the bet does not pay.

Statistics don't lie, they deceive.

October 16th, 2017 at 2:24:33 PM
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Secondarily, if one were to have played say 350-ish hands and not hit a bonus, how "normal" is that?

Statistics don't lie, they deceive.

October 16th, 2017 at 2:44:49 PM
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I get a standard deviation of 6.08.

You have about 1 in 2913 chance of losing 350 hands.

You have about 1 in 2913 chance of losing 350 hands.

I heart Crystal Math.

October 16th, 2017 at 5:30:18 PM
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Quote:CrystalMathI get a standard deviation of 6.08.

You have about 1 in 2913 chance of losing 350 hands.

Eliot's page's numbers agree with yours.

He gives a SD of 6.0849, and 0.977466 as the probability of losing the bet. And doing 1 / 0.977466^350 gives 2913.