100xOdds
100xOdds
Joined: Feb 5, 2012
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January 18th, 2017 at 12:41:11 PM permalink
About 3yrs ago my hot streak started.
I was winning in vp, craps, and poker.
well that ended.

6months ago i was at +$15k.
now I'm down to +$4k. :(

I was planning on going for 7stars this year but changed my mind as the details of doing that became more and more clear.
One of the details was withdrawing $6k more from my bank acct for a total bankroll of $10k for the 1st of 2 trips.

it's not the amount of $ that's the problem. i can easily afford the $6k loss.
it's the fact that the $6k wasnt from my winnings.

Being scared to withdraw $ not from winnings a natural reaction after not being in the negative for 3yrs?
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
speedycrap
speedycrap
Joined: Oct 13, 2013
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January 18th, 2017 at 12:54:31 PM permalink
u need to lay back and release a bit.
monet0412
monet0412
Joined: Feb 18, 2016
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January 18th, 2017 at 1:37:47 PM permalink
I don't understand this "hot streak" mumbo jumbo. Your playing games over 100% return on your coin in. Every year you should be going upwards and onward, eating and sleeping for free. Constant free play to help buffer losses. Did you start playing bad games out of your bankroll range? Too many sports bets or dice adventures? I'm not trying to needle you... much. I just think your not telling the whole story and that "hot "streak" talk sends me a huge red light with alarms going off in my head. Might as well tell me that you were really "lucky" and now your "luck" has run out. I'll say one thing... I don't like CET one bit if that means anything.
monet0412
monet0412
Joined: Feb 18, 2016
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January 18th, 2017 at 1:37:48 PM permalink
Oh just realized you said Craps and Poker... disregard all previous comments.
Ayecarumba
Ayecarumba
Joined: Nov 17, 2009
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January 18th, 2017 at 2:17:27 PM permalink
Quote: 100xOdds

...Being scared to withdraw $ not from winnings a natural reaction after not being in the negative for 3yrs?



Yes. "From Your Winnings" or not, you have lost $11k in six months. That's a sizeable pile of cash for most.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
Romes
Romes
Joined: Jul 22, 2014
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January 18th, 2017 at 2:21:18 PM permalink
Sadly 100xOdds the trend is not going to stop. You're playing against a house advantage. The more and more you get to the long run the more and more you'll get to your real EV, which is a negative number. Every single throw of the dice that negative number gets ever so slightly bigger. It will never be a positive number, and overtime it will reflect your actual value (what's in your pocket - your current still $4k in winnings).

Unfortunately I'm sorry to say you should get used to withdrawing from your bank account if you want to continue playing negative edge games. This is how casinos/gambling works to the non-AP... You can't win.

If you disgust the idea of withdrawing from your bank account, there is only one option: stop playing. Quit now while variance still has you up $4k in gambling and never go back so that you don't have to watch it all disappear as you drift towards inevitability. =(
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
DJTeddyBear
DJTeddyBear
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
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January 18th, 2017 at 5:03:08 PM permalink
When chips are pushed to you, they are not "winnings." They are chip you won.

What I mean is, the $11K you lost was YOUR MONEY, not "winnings."

Subtle? Maybe. But an important distinction.


I'm not saying you should stop playing, or cut back or anything. Just keep things in the proper perspective.
Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁 Note that the same could be said for Religion. I.E. Religion is nothing more than organized superstition. 🤗
100xOdds
100xOdds
Joined: Feb 5, 2012
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December 5th, 2017 at 8:04:48 AM permalink
Quote: 100xOdds

About 3yrs ago my hot streak started.
I was winning in vp, craps, and poker.
well that ended.

6months ago i was at +$15k.
now I'm down to +$4k. :(

I was planning on going for 7stars this year but changed my mind as the details of doing that became more and more clear.
One of the details was withdrawing $6k more from my bank acct for a total bankroll of $10k for the 1st of 2 trips.

it's not the amount of $ that's the problem. i can easily afford the $6k loss.
it's the fact that the $6k wasnt from my winnings.

Being scared to withdraw $ not from winnings a natural reaction after not being in the negative for 3yrs?


Update:
and Lady Variance decided to be nice to me again...

11 months later, im now up +$17k overall.
some from live poker and vulturing but most of that $13k gain was from -EV games.

Once again, I have the bankroll for a 7star run.
but probably NOT going to do it since caesars has pissed me off by continually cutting my comps/free room offers throughout this year (2017).

hell, probably not even going to try for Aspirations Lvl 1 for 2018.
and I have no confidence that even doing a DiaD ($50k coin-in) on Jan 1, 2018 would give me better offers.
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
DRich
DRich
Joined: Jul 6, 2012
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December 5th, 2017 at 9:31:51 AM permalink
Quote: 100xOdds

I have no confidence that even doing a DiaD ($50k coin-in) on Jan 1, 2018 would give me better offers.



I have found the key to be not giving them any play for at least the prior six months before you do your DIAD. As you probably know Caesars still uses ADT calculations for the Month, Six months, and Year. If your six month and one month ADT goes from zero to $50,000 coin in in one day they seem to put you back in the great offers category.
Living longer does not always infer +EV
100xOdds
100xOdds
Joined: Feb 5, 2012
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December 12th, 2017 at 2:59:34 PM permalink
Quote: DRich

I have found the key to be not giving them any play for at least the prior six months before you do your DIAD. As you probably know Caesars still uses ADT calculations for the Month, Six months, and Year. If your six month and one month ADT goes from zero to $50,000 coin in in one day they seem to put you back in the great offers category.


I have $400 in rc. they expire in 6months if I don't earn 1rc.
so not playing for 6months for better comps doesn't make sense.

hm.. what if I earn 1 rc in another casino in another region?
ie: home casino = AC.
goto harrah's philly at month 5 to earn a few RC

my adt in AC is still =$0, right?
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)

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