Fairly evaluating "sucker" bets
September 10th, 2016 at 5:28:52 PM
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Just the other day, I was thinking about high payout "sucker" bets (e.g. ATS & Fire bet in craps) that are berated as horrible bets due to their EV. I believe comparing EV of different bets with radically different payouts is like comparing apples and oranges.
The "All" bet has a payout of 174 to 1 on a win and has a house edge of 7.5%. Superficially, this looks like a much worse bet than the pass line bet (which has a respectable edge of 1.4%). However, winning a pass line bet only doubles my money. I would need to win 7 consecutive pass line bets (with all the winnings) to achieve a payout of 127 to 1. The edge of this "7 consecutive pass line" bet is 9.5% (1 - (244/495)^7 * 128). So, if my objective is to come out of the casino with 100x my money, I'd be better off making an "All" bet than this "7 consecutive pass line" bet.
I realize that odds need to be factored in to this analysis. It almost certainly will restore the pass line bet as the better bet...but, not by as much as the house edge comparison suggests.
By extension, I'd say that single zero roulette is likely the best option for a 1000 to 1 payout. Two consecutive 35-1 wins comes at a 5.3% edge. That being said, single zero roulette is a horrible game if you're looking to double your money. Baccarat, craps, and blackjack are all better options.
I'm not trying to discount EV in the analysis of games of chance. However, I do think some of these high payout bets have gotten a much worse rap than they deserve.
The "All" bet has a payout of 174 to 1 on a win and has a house edge of 7.5%. Superficially, this looks like a much worse bet than the pass line bet (which has a respectable edge of 1.4%). However, winning a pass line bet only doubles my money. I would need to win 7 consecutive pass line bets (with all the winnings) to achieve a payout of 127 to 1. The edge of this "7 consecutive pass line" bet is 9.5% (1 - (244/495)^7 * 128). So, if my objective is to come out of the casino with 100x my money, I'd be better off making an "All" bet than this "7 consecutive pass line" bet.
I realize that odds need to be factored in to this analysis. It almost certainly will restore the pass line bet as the better bet...but, not by as much as the house edge comparison suggests.
By extension, I'd say that single zero roulette is likely the best option for a 1000 to 1 payout. Two consecutive 35-1 wins comes at a 5.3% edge. That being said, single zero roulette is a horrible game if you're looking to double your money. Baccarat, craps, and blackjack are all better options.
I'm not trying to discount EV in the analysis of games of chance. However, I do think some of these high payout bets have gotten a much worse rap than they deserve.
September 10th, 2016 at 5:33:04 PM
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I spoke too fast. 10 consecutive BJ wins on a table with excellent rules is likely better. But, I don't think that detail really changes the essence of my post.
September 10th, 2016 at 11:48:05 PM
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I don't know why the bigger the payout from winning, the more they hold. Table limits on roulette make the 1,000 times multiplier win impossible at many casinos. Limits inside at casinos I remember asking are never more than $100. I always thought it was cool Mountaineer of all casinos took $200, but before I ever bet it, their limit is back to $100 last checked. The Wizard had strategy with a lower edge than roulette playing craps to accomplish $1,000. Depending on table limits, maybe it could be used to win 1,000x if you're starting with $5.
Being kind of inexperienced at craps, I'm kind of afraid of being cheated by the no rolls. When I played at Tropicana, I was kind of skeptical a bet was booked after the dice landed. As soon as my bet booked was said, it was instantaneously seven out. I've always felt like they might have stolen my $60, so I'm skeptical of integrity when a few thousand are bet by someone who doesn't regularly bet so much.
Being kind of inexperienced at craps, I'm kind of afraid of being cheated by the no rolls. When I played at Tropicana, I was kind of skeptical a bet was booked after the dice landed. As soon as my bet booked was said, it was instantaneously seven out. I've always felt like they might have stolen my $60, so I'm skeptical of integrity when a few thousand are bet by someone who doesn't regularly bet so much.
I am a robot.
