hot/cold slot theory
I agree, if machines were hot or cold, it would have nothing to do with any type of AI or whatever however I have seen machines that went on abnormally long winning spells and yes, abnormally long losing ones as well.
Can a person for hour after hour get lucky and keep hitting at exactly the right time to trigger more and more wins --- or--- is the machine hot vs. cold?
I have my own theory which I believe is grounded in sound mathematical properties (coming admittedly from someone who is not a mathematician.)
So, here goes. Feel free to debunk me. This is my opinion. (Please debunk me in a nice manner :)
Every symbol in a slot has a weighted denominational value. Lets take cherries vs. sevens.
So, lets say, at a $2 max spin, three cherries is a fifty cent win and three sevens is a $5 win.
Clearly, the sevens are worth ten times more than the cherries and clearly, they are almost certainly going to appear ten times less than the cherries (or at least have some mathematical relationship to how they appear differently.)
If that is the case, then the RNG is not 100% random. It must over the course of longevity, spit out ten times more cherries than sevens. It's just the short term spitting out of the random numbers that is in question and there may be long spells, more than say 10:1 where the sevens are not generated.
And then, suddenly, as the long-term odds of this random number generation come closer to correct probability, the sevens suddenly start being generated in a cluster.
You still have to depress the slot button at the right moment, but if lots of random sevens are being generated, there is a better chance for you to get the winning combinations.
This is why you sometimes see the bonus round symbols suddenly dropping spin after spin until suddenly you hit all three for a bonus round.
It doesn't mean you cant get a bonus round or winning sevens on the first spin. It's still random, but the machines have "hot" streaks due to the randomness of the generator and the clustering of certain more valuable symbols that suddenly get generated.
I'm not saying the RNG is making an intelligent choice to suddenly "go hot" but that it is performing a function of its programming to spit out numbers(symbols) at the correct ratio to justify the weighted payouts on a given slot.
Anyway, that's my theory!
Use flipping a coin as an example. If you get heads three times in a row doesn't mean you will be getting more tails in the future to make up for it. If after those three flips you flip it another million times you would expect an average of 500k heads and 500k tails. You would not expect more tails. Therefore after a million and three spins the percentages are: 50.0003% Heads and 49.9997% Tails
A typical reel slot machine has about a 7% hold so although those patterns you see matter, they will have almost zero effect and you will still be losing almost 7%.
Quote: DRichSorry, but you clearly don't understand the probabilities and statistics behind it.
Use flipping a coin as an example. If you get heads three times in a row doesn't mean you will be getting more tails in the future to make up for it. If after those three flips you flip it another million times you would expect an average of 500k heads and 500k tails. You would not expect more tails. Therefore after a million and three spins the percentages are: 50.0003% Heads and 49.9997% Tails
A typical reel slot machine has about a 7% hold so although those patterns you see matter, they will have almost zero effect and you will still be losing almost 7%.
I don't disagree with the hold or that hot and cold machines based on my theory is an AP'able matter.
I was addressing hot and cold swings on slots. The hold would still occur, naturally.
I think it is irresponsible of you to even say a typical reel slot will hold 7%, because many readers may have available locally will hold 12% or more. This being a public forum, you're placing a dangerous belief in people's heads with people very well playing slots vastly underestimating their odds.
It would be like saying typically you can drink six beers without getting a DUI and some 90 pound lady drives head on into traffic. You've mentioned some manufacturers wanting slots at 80%, so shouldn't be so plain implying things are so simple as typically holding 7%.
Slots are opaque, but if you're walking blind, you're not going to keep grabbing what feels like a rod when you're looking for a door knob. Maybe it was a door knob, but you're better off looking for what you think is what you're looking for.
You know so much about slots, what they're set at, where they're set at, go play a game you know for a fact has a really bad hold for 8 hours, then play the same game for 8 hours you know is set to the manufacturer's best setting and then tell me if they felt the same. Yeah maybe you won't need a million spins, might as well play two machines while you're at it. I'm sure you'll do great on all 4 machines. You should probably just bet max.
When you write things like you do, people are going to translate it wrong. You're going to think you're telling them they can win or lose on any slot, but what they're going to hear is they can win on any slot every time and if they didn't, it was just bad luck, not even accounting for the fact they never stood a chance. They'll try for 24 hours in a row not even questioning the fact even trying was foolish. People out there are going to play hundreds of hours of slots, and they're not going to most likely be playing at 140%, but they could right. Probably only Neo then he'll stick his hand through the slot machine and hit megabucks. Who even wants to reach the slot return anyways? People are just trying to guess a machine with a slightly higher return and not want to feel cheated as if they played the house machine with the worst odds in the place.
Quote: darkoz
Anyway, that's my theory!
If you have never seen a par sheet, it might be an education. Try to find one. If I recall, the Wizard may have some posted on the other site. I'm not going to look right now, instead I'll let you look. Time for my nap.
Quote: onenickelmiracleThere is no way to tell if a slot machine Is typical. Around here the slots even with max bets of $10-$50 will hold more than you describe at 7%. Not reel slots, but they have been pegged.
I think it is irresponsible of you to even say a typical reel slot will hold 7%, because many readers may have available locally will hold 12% or more. This being a public forum, you're placing a dangerous belief in people's heads with people very well playing slots vastly underestimating their odds.
Of course you can't tell what is typical but if you go around the U,S, and play all of the Reel slots I would think 7% would be a reasonable estimate. Now if you went around and played all the Video slots I would put that number closer to 10%.
Quote: onenickelmiracle
You know so much about slots, what they're set at, where they're set at, go play a game you know for a fact has a really bad hold for 8 hours, then play the same game for 8 hours you know is set to the manufacturer's best setting and then tell me if they felt the same. Yeah maybe you won't need a million spins, might as well play two machines while you're at it. I'm sure you'll do great on all 4 machines. You should probably just bet max.
I have analyzed millions of spins on video slots so I probably know more than most people.
If a time traveler came here from 2006, you don't think he would notice anything playing the same slots he did in his time while in our time? He wouldn't be suspicious at all or feel unlucky? Say he plays two four hour sessions for 5 days in a packed casino with people playing all around him. He plays 40,000 spins on reel slots, indirectly observes 20 people around him also playing, which becomes 800,000 spins. Of course mostly seeing or hearing those closer to him, but many of the people tell everyone when they win, and tell him about their losses to that point accurately. Of course he can't determine the hold to a hundredth of a percent, but can make a judgement whether A) slots haven't changed, B) changed a little, C) changed a lot, or D) have gotten better a little or a lot. Of course maybe he knows statistics and probabilities and maybe he doesn't. I just can't believe he would say D and people would probably suggest B or C when he complains about bad luck and dead spells. You get the point.
I'll ask one more question. If a large casino had 9 banks of 40 reel slots. One bank from 2000, 2002, 2004, 2006, 2008, 2010, 2012, 2014, 2016, are you telling me the players wouldn't gravitate to the older banks thinking they paid better and be disappointed if they chose to play the more modern settings because they were available with open seats?
Quote: onenickelmiracleDr. Rich
His name is DR. ich.
ROTFLMAO.... Do they pay you so say that nonsense ? If I could average 9% I would be in slot heaven.Quote: DRich
A typical reel slot machine has about a 7% hold so although those patterns you see matter, they will have almost zero effect and you will still be losing almost 7%.
Other than that.....
anyone not taking Drich's advice about slots is an idiot. He generally knows what he's talking about.
Quote: onenickelmiracleDr. Rich, I've played at good casinos and bad casinos. Back when Soaring Eagle has Certified Hot machines the experience was night and day. Was meeting the slot fanatics website group and there were a lot of happy campers. The casino got rid of the loose slots program and all you ever see is complainers now. Most of the casinos I ever gambled with slots, I would say they're all bad. None of them have a majority of reel slots anymore, because they're just hopeless. As stupid as a slot machine really is with any setting, they're really stupid the farther from 100% you get. Plus with video slots money goes faster more than the numbers might predict because you lose all the marvels of nice wins and happy bonuses, time goes faster.
If a time traveler came here from 2006, you don't think he would notice anything playing the same slots he did in his time while in our time? He wouldn't be suspicious at all or feel unlucky? Say he plays two four hour sessions for 5 days in a packed casino with people playing all around him. He plays 40,000 spins on reel slots, indirectly observes 20 people around him also playing, which becomes 800,000 spins. Of course mostly seeing or hearing those closer to him, but many of the people tell everyone when they win, and tell him about their losses to that point accurately. Of course he can't determine the hold to a hundredth of a percent, but can make a judgement whether A) slots haven't changed, B) changed a little, C) changed a lot, or D) have gotten better a little or a lot. Of course maybe he knows statistics and probabilities and maybe he doesn't. I just can't believe he would say D and people would probably suggest B or C when he complains about bad luck and dead spells. You get the point.
I'll ask one more question. If a large casino had 9 banks of 40 reel slots. One bank from 2000, 2002, 2004, 2006, 2008, 2010, 2012, 2014, 2016, are you telling me the players wouldn't gravitate to the older banks thinking they paid better and be disappointed if they chose to play the more modern settings because they were available with open seats?
I played a lot of slots late 90s thru about 2004. Then was mostly in a no gambling situation until 2013. So i really relate to the time machine comments you made.
Then; Mostly nickel dime quarter: pennies were just coming in the latter part of that. I rarely played more than $2 a spin, usually around 1-1.5 . Wins were MUCH bigger, in the $200 range, not unusual to get a 400-500, several machines paid 800-1000 for a good bonus round. Just about any win, though, paid your bet back at a minimum.
Now, lots more wins, but partials. Lots of times you "win", but only 10-50% of your total bet. And games make a big hoorah about paying 10x your bet now; big wins like I mention above are very rare. I think it's a whole marketing change, devaluing wins as far as they think the public will tolerate and still feel like the slot's worth playing.
There's been a corresponding removal of the good pay cycles and/or the good machines. Mystical Unicorn was one that paid much bigger then than now. Penguin Pays, Dolphin pays, other Aristocrat been revised. Whodunnit, Winning Bid, good early wms videos, gone. Think it had a lot to do with changing denoms from nickel to penny, and from, 9-15 lines, even 20, to now 30-50 standard. All got diluted. Oh, well.
On our earlier casino trips (we started going in 2004 or so), the winning nights were dominated by slot wins. I can't remember a decent table win back then. More recently, none of the winning nights are from slot play...
I guess I am a "better" table player but the slot results have definitely been worse. Who knows why. Random? Changes to the game pay tables?
That's what I got mad about. 7%, but if you think it isn't 7%, don't trust your lying eyes and keep on playing essentially.Quote: AxelWolfROTFLMAO.... Do they pay you so say that nonsense ? If I could average 9% I would be in slot heaven.
Other than that.....
anyone not taking Drich's advice about slots is an idiot. He generally knows what he's talking about.
Slots do have a pattern between returns. They take more or less of your money. If you're suspicious you're seeing a tell, your suspicion alone is good enough reason to never play if losing more makes you displeased. Newer machines might be better at hiding it. I always was pretty sure a reduction in scatter frequency, wild frequency and mystery features was how it's often done. Depends on the game. Yes you cannot tell the return at all just based on these, but good enough to guess it is either worse or better. I don't think I'm ignorant but I am suspicious. Expecting less is the norm in casinos, so assuming you're getting less isn't a bad conclusion.
Older games with less complexity were probably more obvious and why they're gone. People expected things in certain frequencies and gave up on them. Some people probably never came back either.
Frog Prince try finding the prince paying 100x when you see this slot. He went from uncommon to rare long ago, but I guess I need a prescription. When people hear they can't notice a machine was tightened, they'll continue playing thinking they'll still win like before. Nobody can bs talking about how much the odds change, so it stays vague.
The Wizards advice is the advice I try to take, don't play slots, so none of this really matters to me. Casinos are greedy and can't be trusted is what I believe. They don't tell you the return on a slot because they want people to still play it if it has to be changed.
But then again I haven't hit a top pay on these things so maybe 3-8% of the return is locked up in the huge payouts.
Quote: djatcBut then again I haven't hit a top pay on these things so maybe 3-8% of the return is locked up in the huge payouts.
What about that hit on "Max Action"? Lol
And just because probabilities of wins are weighted doesn't mean they aren't random.
Quote: AxelWolfROTFLMAO.... Do they pay you so say that nonsense ? If I could average 9% I would be in slot heaven.
Other than that.....
anyone not taking Drich's advice about slots is an idiot. He generally knows what he's talking about.
My child, you just need an education. Limit your mechanical reel slot play to the high limit room and the $1 3 reel machines like Blazing 7's. You will be below 7%. Avoid video slots at all costs unless you know of an AP situation. Your typical video slots on the strip are set about 13% with the big progressives games 2-3% higher.
Mathematicians can tear their hair out over RNG's not being purely random but casino owners know that they are random enough. Casinos make money by providing bells, whistles, drinks and other distractions and entertainments; they don't make money by sitting on slot machines and pressing secret buttons.
A roulette wheel is set for 5.26 percent hold... no matter how "hot" it is or how 'hot' people think it is once THEY approach the wheel and Lady Luck presses a secret button on their behalf. Its pretty much the same thing for slots. Random is random.
I thought it was obvious we were talking about penny slots. Obviously higer denomination have a better payback on avrage but not allways. The highest denomination I ever played was probably set to the state min (not this state).Quote: DRichMy child, you just need an education. Limit your mechanical reel slot play to the high limit room and the $1 3 reel machines like Blazing 7's. You will be below 7%. Avoid video slots at all costs unless you know of an AP situation. Your typical video slots on the strip are set about 13% with the big progressives games 2-3% higher.
Assuming we were talking about all slots.
You know you can't always find what you you need to play in the high limit room. Or perhaps certain denominations are excluded from the promo. (Blazing sevens might be the worst game for a particular promo) They like to watch the high limit room more and thata not always good for an AP. Also if the machines are set at a higher % it might affect the Theo. What's your experience with that situation? A person might not want taxables every 5 minutes slowing down your play or again attracting a bunch of attention to you play.
FYI it doesn't. Make sense that they have penny machine's where you can bet lage amounts of money yet the paybacks suck.
What do you think the payback in on something like a 5 or 10 cent denomination older IGT video reel slot where you can bet 12+ a spin.
Quote: AxelWolfI thought it was obvious we were talking about penny slots. .
What do you think the payback in on something like a 5 or 10 cent denomination older IGT video reel slot where you can bet 12+ a spin.
Sorry, I didn't see any reference to penny slots. You will notice in my post that I was talking about Reel slots and not Video slots.
I would guess you are looking around 8% on the older nickel slots with that big of a bet. In the old days we used to set dollar machines around 4%, quarters 6%, and nickels 8%.
Quote: AxelWolf
Assuming we were talking about all slots.
You know you can't always find what you you need to play in the high limit room. Or perhaps certain denominations are excluded from the promo. (Blazing sevens might be the worst game for a particular promo) They like to watch the high limit room more and thata not always good for an AP. Also if the machines are set at a higher % it might affect the Theo. What's your experience with that situation? A person might not want taxables every 5 minutes slowing down your play or again attracting a bunch of attention to you play.
The OP didn't mention anything about AP, your situation is clearly different. If I ever see you sitting playing a game because you are expecting a "hot streak", I will throw your drink in your face and take your AP card away.
Quote: darkozI don't disagree with the hold or that hot and cold machines based on my theory is an AP'able matter.
I was addressing hot and cold swings on slots. The hold would still occur, naturally.
Your original post says two things that say, or at least imply, otherwise.
Quote: darkozClearly, the sevens are worth ten times more than the cherries and clearly, they are almost certainly going to appear ten times less than the cherries (or at least have some mathematical relationship to how they appear differently.)
If that is the case, then the RNG is not 100% random. It must over the course of longevity, spit out ten times more cherries than sevens.
A "100% random" RNG would be very likely to "spit out ten times more cherries than sevens." Replace the RNG with a "fair" 10-sided die; nine sides have cherries, and the tenth has a seven. If you roll it, say, one thousand times, how many sevens are you expected to get?
Quote: darkozI'm not saying the RNG is making an intelligent choice to suddenly "go hot" but that it is performing a function of its programming to spit out numbers(symbols) at the correct ratio to justify the weighted payouts on a given slot.
The "function of its programming" is to attempt to generate a sequence of results that correspond to the probability of each result occurring each time. Hot and cold streaks "should" happen, but it doesn't mean that they necessarily will - or that this information is particularly useful to a gambler in any way. A streak is never "due to happen at any moment."
For Nevada, per the Gaming Control Board Gaming Revenue Report for the 12 months ending on the last day of June 2016, statewide penny slots held 10.04%. How good of a deal you get depends on where you are at.
The Carson Valley area held 7.23%
Downtown Vegas, 11.34%
The Strip, 11.55%
North Las Vegas, 9.49%
Laughlin, 11.06%
The Boulder Strip, 9.58%
Mesquite, 9.58%
South Shore Lake Tahoe, 11.20%
Elko County, 6.87%
Wendover, 6.42%
Reno, 7.33%
Sparks, 6.42%
North Shore Lake Tahoe, 7.71%
