Presidential betting
Quote: RigondeauxMost of them are left/liberal, and I'd guess maybe 10% of that group will vote for Hillary. Some would vote Trump over Hillary, given no other choice. She really offers them absolutely nothing. ... I think it's almost impossible for someone who knows a lot about politics (and who is not an elite, or linked to elites) to believe that Hillary is good for the country.
Really? Why? I am "left/liberal" and I feel like I find myself mostly agreeing with you in these politics threads, but I strongly disagree with you on this. I am voting for her and it is a pretty easy decision.
Maybe I fail the stipulation of "knowing a lot" but I don't think I would. I definitely pass the stipulation of not being an "elite."
Hillary is a nerd with actual plans, and people don't always like those plans, but there is an intended goal there and some ideas of what could be done.
It sounds like your friends are less liberal and more eff-the-system, or outside the box as you say, if they can't see how Hillary is more compelling than Trump.
Quote: bigfoot66Does this imply a 1.2% chance of Stein or Johnson winning (seems awfully high), or is the reason that the sum is <100% a reflection of the house edge?
Update: the price to back either is currently
Clinton -200 (66.7%)
Trump +205 (32.8%)
I believe that even though this only adds to 99.5%, you can't arbitrage it even if you knew with literal certainty it would be one of those two, because the commission you pay on winning bets is too high.
There's not a meaningful market on anything else. There are a few other candidates being offered at less than 1000:1 with a two-way market: Johnson, Sanders, Biden, Ryan.
Quote: WizardofnothingHow can a reputable book offer Bernie sanders at 33-1 and Paul Ryan when it's. Not possible they win - 100million to 1 wouldn't even be a fair line
Not sure these are the right odds, but Hillarys health makes it an option I'm assuming.
This thread shows up on the 'home' page of the forums as a 'recent thread' but not in the expanded list of 'recent threads'. What am I missing?
<edit> I see it was started in the off-topic section, but I thought it worked just the other way around ?
Quote: bbbI will take Hillary over 50% for 200. Anybody want the under? Your side would include 50.0. Mine starts at 50.1
Quote: MaxPenI will take the other side of that as well as DRich's. Anyone else? I'm willing to put up to 200 more on the under.
Just post back to confirm.
National poll has Hillary at 49.7%, trending up. Gonna be a close one. Wanna buy out your bet now? :)
Quote: beachbumbabsNational poll has Hillary at 49.7%, trending up. Gonna be a close one. Wanna buy out your bet now? :)
MaxPen has certified scientifical polls showing that Trump is leading with 117% of the vote. He is also ahead in the polls for King of Albania and Commissioner of the Australian Rugby Association.
Of course, if Hillary wins, it's ipso facto proof that the election was rigged, so all bets are null and void. Imagine if football bets worked that way. You bet the money line, getting +400 (about the price you should get on Trump), and if your team loses, the other side obviously cheated, so you get your bet back!
Quote: JoeshlabotnikMaxPen has certified scientifical polls showing that Trump is leading with 117% of the vote. He is also ahead in the polls for King of Albania and Commissioner of the Australian Rugby Association.
Of course, if Hillary wins, it's ipso facto proof that the election was rigged, so all bets are null and void. Imagine if football bets worked that way. You bet the money line, getting +400 (about the price you should get on Trump), and if your team loses, the other side obviously cheated, so you get your bet back!
Sounds like the Borgata case.
Quote: WizardofnothingHow can a reputable book offer Bernie sanders at 33-1 and Paul Ryan when it's. Not possible they win - 100million to 1 wouldn't even be a fair line
It still is possible they win. Long shot, but possible.
Trump wins Florida, North Carolina, Ohio and gets one Elector in Maine. Evan Mullins wins Utah, and Bernie Sanders wins Vermont in a write in campaign.
No one gets 270 and it goes to the House where anyone can get elected.
There are after all some big similarities.
Elitism
Corruption
Illegal Immigration (FYI...on CNN and MSNBC the term is no longer allowed. You must say, "Undocumented immigrants.")
A feeling of loss of national identity.
The left behind, and people sick and tired of the phony political correctness.
Quote: KeyserAs I recall, the betting lines had the Brexit stay vote at 85% the day before the vote took place. Perhaps, they're that far off on Trump too? (Unlikely, but possible.)
There are after all some big similarities.
Elitism
Corruption
Illegal Immigration (FYI...on CNN and MSNBC the term is no longer allowed. You must say, "Undocumented immigrants.")
A feeling of loss of national identity.
And people sick and tired of the phony political correctness.
Electing Trump and exiting the EU would do nothing to solve elitism and corruption in either country.
Trump would actually do nothing about illegal immigration (as his proposals are wildly impractical), and the Brexit vote would only, presumably, help to stop LEGAL immigration into the UK.
If anybody in either country feels a loss of national identity, they need to eat a Chicago dog or some bangers and mash.
Acting towards and talking about people in decent fashion is what many rednecks on both sides of the pond call "political correctness." I agree that the people who can't be bothered to speak or act decently are sick and tired of being told that they are berks, wankers, jerks, and assholes. Even though that's what they are. That's why they love Trump over here, and voted Brexit for the sole purpose of racial hatred over there.
Quote: billryanIt still is possible they win. Long shot, but possible.
Trump wins Florida, North Carolina, Ohio and gets one Elector in Maine. Evan Mullins wins Utah, and Bernie Sanders wins Vermont in a write in campaign.
No one gets 270 and it goes to the House where anyone can get elected.
In that scenario, wouldn't the House go all Trump? I mean, yeah, it's the newly elected House that would be voting, but it's highly unlikely that the Republicans won't retain control of it.
Are you assuming in your scenario that Trump also gets the redneck flyover states that he's expected to win anyway?
Maybe the House, not liking Trump, Ryan, Bush, Rubio, or any other prominent Republican, would elect Bob Dylan.
Quote: JoeshlabotnikIn that scenario, wouldn't the House go all Trump? I mean, yeah, it's the newly elected House that would be voting, but it's highly unlikely that the Republicans won't retain control of it.
Are you assuming in your scenario that Trump also gets the redneck flyover states that he's expected to win anyway?
Maybe the House, not liking Trump, Ryan, Bush, Rubio, or any other prominent Republican, would elect Bob Dylan.
In Bill's scenario, the election MIGHT NOT go to the House. Remember, there are NO CONSTITUTIONAL OR LEGAL REQUIREMENTS THAT AN ELECTOR CAST HIS/HER BALLOT AS PLEDGED. So if either major candidate got close to 270, which could happen under Bill's proposition, enormous pressure would be brought to bear on electors to switch.
A decade ago I worked for a Member of Congress and still have some contacts there that I trust. As of a week ago the expectation was that the GOP would emerge with a 6-10 seat majority, and some in the GOP camp have either said they would not vote for Trump or called on him to leave the ticket. So if the election were to go to the House, the outcome would be anything but cut and dried.
And by the way, if you can find a wager out there on whether Paul Ryan will be speaker once the House finishes organizing in January, and you can find anything longer than even money odds, it might be worth your while to plunk down a few dollars...
1) I believe it's the current House that votes, the newly elected one hasn't been sworn in yet.
2) Its not a straight member to member vote. It's the Congressmen from each state meet and choose one candidate. Each state gets one vote. First to 26 wins. 25-25 and I have no idea what's next. Republicans control more states, but they can select Ryan, Trump or a favorite son. Vermont could select Sanders, for example. Say a state has twenty members Twelve Republican, eight Democrats.
The Republicans split six Trump, six Ryan. The Democrats vote Clinton.One group of Republicans has to compromise.
In this situation, I can see Ryan getting the nod, although I'd give it a less than one percent chance of getting there.
Point 1, though, is off in that it is the new House that would vote. The electoral college results are not officially counted (even though the electors met weeks earlier) by the House of Reps until after Jan 3, when the new House takes its seat. If no candidate reaches 270 at that point, the election then goes to the House.
Quote: iamnomadYeah, you are right in pt. 2 about the procedures that would be used.
Point 1, though, is off in that it is the new House that would vote. The electoral college results are not officially counted (even though the electors met weeks earlier) by the House of Reps until after Jan 3, when the new House takes its seat. If no candidate reaches 270 at that point, the election then goes to the House.
Ok, I wasn't certain. The new house should have less Republicans in it.
Quote: billryanI don't believe any Elector would be unfaithful to the point of electing a President.
I do. Absolutely.
Quote: beachbumbabsLet the record show that I paid the Wizard $50 last week after losing the Christie nominee bet from earlier in this thread . We had both forgotten about it until I went looking for my other bet with MaxPen.
Never bet on really fat people unless it's an eating contest.
Quote: DRichSounds good to me. I have Hillary over 50% of the popular vote for $100. I'm sure you are the favorite now but I expect Trump to fall off.
Congratulations to MaxPen. I owe him $100 because Hillary got less than 50% of the popular vote. A PM has been sent to settle up.
Quote: JoeshlabotnikNever bet on really fat people unless it's an eating contest.
Fat people don't do well in eating contests
Just look at the Nathans hot dog 4th of July contest
Nobody fat ever wins. The fats show up, eat some and lose
Quote: AyecarumbaYou have action. Good luck to America. It is going to be a rough 4 years either way.
I hereby take my victory lap on this bet :)
Congratulations to you bigfoot66! Whodda thunk it! It was fun to watch the election "experts" meltdown. Arrangements for payment are coming via PM. Please acknowledge here when it is settled.Quote: bigfoot66I hereby take my victory lap on this bet :)
Quote: AyecarumbaCongratulations to you bigfoot66! Whodda thunk it! It was fun to watch the election "experts" meltdown. Arrangements for payment are coming via PM. Please acknowledge here when it is settled.
I wanted to publicly state that Ayecarumba could not have been more of a gentleman in handling this. He paid promptly by my preferred method and offered his sincere congratulations. Thank you!
Quote: beachbumbabs: bbb
I will take Hillary over 50% for 200. Anybody want the under? Your side would include 50.0. Mine starts at 50.1
Quote: MaxPen
I will take the other side of that as well as DRich's. Anyone else? I'm willing to put up to 200 more on the under.
Just post back to confirm. :)
I have made arrangements to pay MaxPen by his preferred method.
Quote: IbeatyouracesWhat basically happened on Tuesdays was that the American public gave a huge FU and two giant middle fingers to Hollywood and Washington D.C.
correction
1/2 the American Public when looking at the popular vote
Maybe down to a quarter when only 1/2 the people actually vote
Trump got 59 million. 240 million in the US over 18
Quote: beachbumbabsI have made arrangements to pay MaxPen by his preferred method.
BBB you seem to be a great payer. You are always posting about your payments. Sounds like someine may be a mark here ;-)
Quote: GWAEBBB you seem to be a great payer. You are always posting about your payments. Sounds like someine may be a mark here ;-)
Don't be fooled. BBB has collected plenty too.
Not sure how to quote and old link, so I will copy and paste.Quote: WizardHere are the Betfair odds, as of 7/24/16, converted to the American format:
Clinton -227 (69.4%)
Trump +242 (29.4%)
Wizard
Administrator
Joined:Oct 14, 2009Threads: 876Posts: 15186April 24th, 2015 at 11:04:48 AMpermalink
Quote: petroglyph
I'll take twenty [dollars] that says she doesn't win the general, if you would be willing to take bets that small?
I accept! Please remind me, win or lose, about about the bet after the election. I'm very likely to forget about it.
Quote: GWAEBBB you seem to be a great payer. You are always posting about your payments. Sounds like someine may be a mark here ;-)
I had undersood, from before I joined the forum, that a bet made in a thread required public resolution, so that's all I'm doing. Protocol seems to be that the loser does this so the winner isn't appearing to gloat. I bet Wizard and MaxPen earlier in the thread, I lost both bets, I acknowledged payment in the same thread.
Quote: beachbumbabsI had undersood, from before I joined the forum, that a bet made in a thread required public resolution, so that's all I'm doing. Protocol seems to be that the loser does this so the winner isn't appearing to gloat. I bet Wizard and MaxPen earlier in the thread, I lost both bets, I acknowledged payment in the same thread.
I was just poking fun, sorry if it sounded otherwise.
