7craps
7craps
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November 18th, 2018 at 10:26:24 AM permalink
Quote: CyrusV

consider the following analogy. 256 individually numbered balls are placed in a bag. You pick a ball, take a note of it's number and return it to the bag. Repeat the process a further 7 times. How often within 8 attempts will you choose the same ball more than once? Not even a disaster if you do, just a blip ;-)

How is this related to Baccarat?
is that what you are trying to point out?

Your analogy is an experiment WITH replacement (in math lingo)

a Baccarat shoe is an experiment WITHOUT replacement.

still, a fun math problem

I used pari/gp calculator
online is available too
https://pari.math.u-bordeaux.fr/gp.html

I wanted to know the probability of all unique ball numbers drawn.
then we can subtract from 1 to get an answer.
(that skips the chances of more than one number being drawn more than 1 time)

the chance it does NOT happen
(10:13) gp > x=prod(n=1,8,(256-(n-1))/256);
(10:13) gp > x
%2 = 4032627000373125/4503599627370496
(10:13) gp >
(10:13) gp > x=prod(n=1,8,(256-(n-1))/256.);
(10:13) gp > x
%4 = 0.89542306910786462204043800738872960210

that it does happen
(10:13) gp > 1-x
%5 = 0.10457693089213537795956199261127039790


what to do with this knowledge?
how about watch some football

as to the OP
Baccarat is popular because of (the many) superstitions by the majority of those that play it all over the world and the belief - not in luck - but in fate

do we really want to talk about why the #4 is BAD and the #8 is GOOD
Baccarat brings in Billions for the worlds' casinos from a certain 'class of players'
that have already been named
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
djatc
djatc
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November 18th, 2018 at 10:57:40 PM permalink
all the old asian people look like all they do is win so you might have a point
"Man Babes" #AxelFabulous
BlackjackLover
BlackjackLover
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November 18th, 2018 at 11:32:30 PM permalink
Quote: CyrusV

Baccarat is a wonderful game, offering the lowest edge in a casino unless you play BJ perfectly every hand or are counting. When you are able to achieve 30+ consecutive winning sessions inside 6 weeks, turning $2k into over $40k during the process. I can confirm it is more than just a simple guessing game dependant on luck. Luck can be applied to an individual hand, winning 9-8 perhaps.


No, it's just luck. 30+ consecutive winning sessions is nothing. Turing $2K into over $40K isn't impressive. Any moderately lucky people can do it. The thing is, it's impossible to do it consistently because it's just luck. Otherwise, why don't you turn $40K into $800K every 6 weeks? Have you tried doing that?
beachbumbabs
beachbumbabs
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November 19th, 2018 at 12:09:03 AM permalink
You had me at "snigger", Eliza. This new-fangled talk. You do it so well!
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
AlexR
AlexR
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November 19th, 2018 at 12:29:30 AM permalink
While we're resurrecting this thread, I have a question on the topic I've been meaning to ask for a while. The assertion is often made that Asian gamblers generally prefer baccarat because the outcome, being predestined but unknown, is an instrument of fate.

Fair enough, but doesn't the popularity of pai gow, a game of both skill and chance, kind of weaken this argument?
"At gambling, the deadly sin is to mistake bad play for bad luck." —Ian Fleming
CyrusV
CyrusV
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November 19th, 2018 at 5:33:21 AM permalink
Quote: 7craps

How is this related to Baccarat?
I wanted to know the probability of all unique ball numbers drawn.
then we can subtract from 1 to get an answer.
(that skips the chances of more than one number being drawn more than 1 time)



That was kinda my point, the chance of one number being drawn more than once within 8 trials.

Don't really wish to get drawn into to endless back and forth debate with the rest of the comments. You have your opinion and belief, I have mine, they are not going to change. Nothing to be achieved except a waste of energy engaging further, when I could be doing more productive things such as hot stepping to the bank to deposit last nights profit.

Bye for now..
unJon
unJon
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Joined: Jul 1, 2018
November 19th, 2018 at 6:26:29 AM permalink
Quote: 7craps

How is this related to Baccarat?
is that what you are trying to point out?

Your analogy is an experiment WITH replacement (in math lingo)

a Baccarat shoe is an experiment WITHOUT replacement.

still, a fun math problem

I used pari/gp calculator
online is available too
https://pari.math.u-bordeaux.fr/gp.html

I wanted to know the probability of all unique ball numbers drawn.
then we can subtract from 1 to get an answer.
(that skips the chances of more than one number being drawn more than 1 time)

the chance it does NOT happen
(10:13) gp > x=prod(n=1,8,(256-(n-1))/256);
(10:13) gp > x
%2 = 4032627000373125/4503599627370496
(10:13) gp >
(10:13) gp > x=prod(n=1,8,(256-(n-1))/256.);
(10:13) gp > x
%4 = 0.89542306910786462204043800738872960210

that it does happen
(10:13) gp > 1-x
%5 = 0.10457693089213537795956199261127039790


what to do with this knowledge?
how about watch some football

as to the OP
Baccarat is popular because of (the many) superstitions by the majority of those that play it all over the world and the belief - not in luck - but in fate

do we really want to talk about why the #4 is BAD and the #8 is GOOD
Baccarat brings in Billions for the worlds' casinos from a certain 'class of players'
that have already been named



At a guess he runs an 8 step martingale (hence the 1 in 256). And he goes for 8 wins a session (hence the drawing 8 balls).
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
gamerfreak
gamerfreak
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Thanked by
OnceDearBlackjackLover
November 19th, 2018 at 7:20:41 AM permalink
Quote: CyrusV

That was kinda my point, the chance of one number being drawn more than once within 8 trials.

Don't really wish to get drawn into to endless back and forth debate with the rest of the comments. You have your opinion and belief, I have mine, they are not going to change. Nothing to be achieved except a waste of energy engaging further, when I could be doing more productive things such as hot stepping to the bank to deposit last nights profit.

Bye for now..


Math is not an opinion or a belief system.
beachbumbabs
beachbumbabs
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Thanked by
CyrusV
November 19th, 2018 at 8:15:11 AM permalink
Quote: CyrusV

That was kinda my point, the chance of one number being drawn more than once within 8 trials.

Don't really wish to get drawn into to endless back and forth debate with the rest of the comments. You have your opinion and belief, I have mine, they are not going to change. Nothing to be achieved except a waste of energy engaging further, when I could be doing more productive things such as hot stepping to the bank to deposit last nights profit.

Bye for now..



You play in a way you enjoy, and you made money on it. That's gambling entertainment at its best! Enjoy. Sincerely.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
TigerWu
TigerWu
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Joined: May 23, 2016
November 19th, 2018 at 9:49:11 AM permalink
Quote: AlexR

While we're resurrecting this thread, I have a question on the topic I've been meaning to ask for a while. The assertion is often made that Asian gamblers generally prefer baccarat because the outcome, being predestined but unknown, is an instrument of fate.

Fair enough, but doesn't the popularity of pai gow, a game of both skill and chance, kind of weaken this argument?



Pai Gow is not even remotely as popular as Baccarat in Asian countries.
BlackjackLover
BlackjackLover
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Joined: Oct 2, 2018
November 19th, 2018 at 12:24:20 PM permalink
Quote: CyrusV

That was kinda my point, the chance of one number being drawn more than once within 8 trials.

Don't really wish to get drawn into to endless back and forth debate with the rest of the comments. You have your opinion and belief, I have mine, they are not going to change. Nothing to be achieved except a waste of energy engaging further, when I could be doing more productive things such as hot stepping to the bank to deposit last nights profit.

Bye for now..


If you understand probability, you should understand that you just have been lucky. The chance of losing 8 or more than 8 rounds in a row isn't high, but it does happen from time to time. As for your question, it has already been answered. The chance of any number being drawn is equal. Anyway, enjoy your luck while it lasts.
CyrusV
CyrusV
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Joined: Aug 8, 2015
November 23rd, 2018 at 12:46:24 PM permalink
Quote: unJon

At a guess he runs an 8 step martingale (hence the 1 in 256). And he goes for 8 wins a session (hence the drawing 8 balls).

Seriously, please.....

Quote: BlackjackLover

If you understand probability, you should understand that you just have been lucky. The chance of losing 8 or more than 8 rounds in a row isn't high, but it does happen from time to time. As for your question, it has already been answered. The chance of any number being drawn is equal.



I suggest we take Baccarat out of the equation.

Forget this losing 8 rounds in a row, I certainly didn't mention that.

Yes, totally understand the odds of any number being drawn is equal (thanks), which is 1 in 256. I wrongly assumed that the chance of the same number being drawn TWICE inside 8 trials might of had an impact, obviously this isn't the case (diminishing probability?). This is why I value this site.
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