Need Contest Help for Tomorrow! (9/28)

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September 27th, 2014 at 3:44:16 PM permalink

Keep the 415.00 If you keep going all other players must not continue for you to get 1000 wont happen.
not enough upside for that bet.

If you knew exactly how many players were left and it was two or less that would be good. :)

FinsRule

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September 27th, 2014 at 3:53:51 PM permalink

I will know tomorrow around noon how many are eligible. Won't know until after how many bet. If it's 1, 2, or 3 then of course I'll bet. 4 is probably. More than that then I have no idea.

rainman

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September 27th, 2014 at 4:01:50 PM permalink

If just one other continues on you split for 500.00, That's only 85.00 more than quitting right now. keep the 415.00

FinsRule

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September 27th, 2014 at 4:07:11 PM permalink

Right, but I could bet the $415, win $1000 and get the other $250, $333, etc...

Mission146

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September 27th, 2014 at 5:07:04 PM permalink

I'm not even sure if I am understanding this correctly.

What I gather is that you make a $415 bet, and in so doing, you split $1,000 with everyone else who makes a, "Win," bet of $415 regardless of whether or not the bet wins. If the bet wins, you get your share of the $1,000 plus the profits of the $415 bet and the original $415. If you do not bet the $415, you just keep the $415, is that right?

If my understanding is correct, determine what you think the house hold is on that $415 and if $1,000/(Number of players who could bet) is greater than the expected loss on the bet of $415, it would be to your advantage to make the bet.

For example, if we assume a hold of 20%, then 415 * .2 = $83 Expected Loss, 1000/83 = 12.05 (Rounded), so it would be to your advantage to make the bet if there were twelve players or fewer who could bet. I think this would hold unless you can definitively conclude that some people who could bet won't in which case you would just determine how many people you think will bet.

***I don't know where the track is or what the hold should be, so I just threw 20% out for the purpose of an example.

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219

FinsRule

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September 27th, 2014 at 5:41:37 PM permalink

Yeah, you have it figured out correctly.

I wish I would know how many are going to bet. For example, if it's 13, then no one should bet! That means if I bet, I get all 1000. And if it's 12, and all 12 bet, then I'm getting $85 back if I lose, but $415 is a lot of money for me. I've never made a win bet that high before.

If I had to guess, I'd say about 7 made it. And probably one out of the 7 chickens out. But is that one going to be me?

Ayecarumba

Ayecarumba

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September 27th, 2014 at 6:06:54 PM permalink

Do you have a good mount for tomorrows race? If you are reasonably certain you have a winner, then go for it.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci

beachbumbabs

beachbumbabs

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September 27th, 2014 at 6:15:19 PM permalink

Quote: Ayecarumba
Do you have a good mount for tomorrows race? If you are reasonably certain you have a winner, then go for it.

Just what I was going to say. And this seems to be some kind of suicide pool, which means you're kind of betting $415, since you now have the money, but if you lost, you really just lost the $8 you started the parlay with. So, I'd say you should bet if you have a good nag, without worrying about who else is in. Find as sure a thing as you can.

If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.

FinsRule

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September 27th, 2014 at 6:35:11 PM permalink

There are 12 horses and it's a turf sprint for horses that have never won. That's pretty much the definition of a "crapshoot"

rainman

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September 27th, 2014 at 6:51:42 PM permalink

If you keep the 415.00 could you find a better bet to make with it? I think you can.

FinsRule

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September 27th, 2014 at 6:56:45 PM permalink

If I keep it, it goes to my wife.

That's why I'm leaning to letting it ride.

GWAE

GWAE

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September 27th, 2014 at 7:01:41 PM permalink

Quote: FinsRule
If I keep it, it goes to my wife.

That's why I'm leaning to letting it ride.

I think you have your answer there, lol

You said it is a lot of money to you. If that is the case then I personally would just walk and not even look at the results.

Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed. I AM NOT PART OF GWAE RADIO SHOW

rainman

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September 27th, 2014 at 7:01:42 PM permalink

Quote: FinsRule
If I keep it, it goes to my wife.

That's why I'm leaning to letting it ride.

LOL! Well that makes it a no brainier, let it ride!

Mission146

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September 27th, 2014 at 7:12:14 PM permalink

Quote: FinsRule
Yeah, you have it figured out correctly.

I wish I would know how many are going to bet. For example, if it's 13, then no one should bet! That means if I bet, I get all 1000. And if it's 12, and all 12 bet, then I'm getting $85 back if I lose, but $415 is a lot of money for me. I've never made a win bet that high before.

If I had to guess, I'd say about 7 made it. And probably one out of the 7 chickens out. But is that one going to be me?

Again, I don't know what house edge should be assumed, so I can't say twelve or thirteen, or anything, just using 20% as an example.

If you think all seven make it, then let's work backwards:

1000/7 = $142.86

142.86/415 = .344241---So, if you think the House Hold is less than 34.4241%, you should make a win bet.

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219

FinsRule

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September 27th, 2014 at 7:28:14 PM permalink

I think it's 17 or 18%. But i could use the money, so I don't want to just have a 5-10% advantage if I make this bet.

Mission146

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September 27th, 2014 at 7:39:26 PM permalink

Quote: FinsRule
I think it's 17 or 18%. But i could use the money, so I don't want to just have a 5-10% advantage if I make this bet.

In that case, just do 415 * .82 = 340.3

Okay, now you figure out how much you would add (worst case scenario, everyone bets) to that $340.30 and get your total. Let's say there are seven people who CAN bet:

1000/7 = $142.86

Thus, your total expected return is 340.3 + 142.86 = $483.16 if you make that bet, thus your expected return is:

483.16/415 = 1.164241, which reflects an advantage of 16.4241%.

Eight Players would be $125, which is an expected $465.30.

465.30/415 = 1.1212, which reflects an advantage of 12.12%

Nine players would be 111.11 which is 451.41.

451.41/415 = 1.08773% or an 8.773% advantage.

Therefore, you would probably only want to do this with eight, or fewer, people who COULD make the bet if you want an advantage over 10%. The fact that the horse is a crapshoot could also play a factor, unless you really trust the line.

But, honestly, if you could really use the $415, just use your best judgment. As you can see, the formula for determining your % advantage is simple.

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219

FinsRule

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September 27th, 2014 at 7:51:42 PM permalink

Yeah, I get the advantage calculation. My question is more about what the group will do if let's say 12 people are eligible.

If there's 3 eligible, all 3 are going to do it.

But if there's 12, is there a chance only 3 or 4 do it? Are there other examples of this problem in other real world examples?

FinsRule

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September 27th, 2014 at 7:54:09 PM permalink

To be more clear, let's say 100 people are eligible. Obviously, it's silly to bet $415 to give everyone $10. But some are going to take the chance that no one else does it. Maybe that doesn't come into play here, I don't know.

I think what I'm hearing is that I shouldn't count on people not playing when deciding if I want to.

Mission146

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September 27th, 2014 at 8:13:19 PM permalink

Quote: FinsRule
To be more clear, let's say 100 people are eligible. Obviously, it's silly to bet $415 to give everyone $10. But some are going to take the chance that no one else does it. Maybe that doesn't come into play here, I don't know.

I think what I'm hearing is that I shouldn't count on people not playing when deciding if I want to.

Quote: FinsRule
Yeah, I get the advantage calculation. My question is more about what the group will do if let's say 12 people are eligible.

If there's 3 eligible, all 3 are going to do it.

But if there's 12, is there a chance only 3 or 4 do it? Are there other examples of this problem in other real world examples?

I would say that you shouldn't count on anyone not playing, besides, you're getting into Game Theory type stuff when we discuss if there are x number of people who could enter how many people actually WILL enter and things of that nature. I don't know that it's in anyone's capacity to accurately analyze that for this specific occurrence, especially given that we don't know how many people advanced. If you know of anyone else who is doing this and not making the final pick, if their information can reasonably be trusted, then you could consider eliminating them from the people who COULD enter.

I mean, with respect to the game theory type stuff, you've basically said that you're staking a sizable amount of money that you could actually use on this, so I'm uncomfortable even speculating how all of that would play out. I would just figure out how many people COULD enter, figure out how much money you are guaranteed, what your expected return is based on that 18% hold you were talking about, see if you think you have a good horse, calculate your advantage (or disadvantage if a ton of people could enter) and decide what you want to do.

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219

Mission146

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September 27th, 2014 at 8:20:04 PM permalink

Also, if you don't mind splitting some of the guaranteed money regardless of the result, perhaps you can find someone that wants to take some percentage of the action on this bet once you have the specifics on how many entrants there COULD be, if the advantage is a little low for you wanting to risk the $415 - Guaranteed Money = x

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219

FinsRule

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September 28th, 2014 at 8:05:18 AM permalink

The update is that 7 people have advanced.

I'm going to wait to see if there are any scratches, but I'm leaning toward not betting.

beachbumbabs

beachbumbabs

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September 28th, 2014 at 11:43:38 AM permalink

Quote: FinsRule
The update is that 7 people have advanced.

I'm going to wait to see if there are any scratches, but I'm leaning toward not betting.

I'm a big advocate of "follow your gut." Nice parlay win regardless!

If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.

Mission146

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September 29th, 2014 at 3:55:06 PM permalink

Quote: FinsRule
The update is that 7 people have advanced.

I'm going to wait to see if there are any scratches, but I'm leaning toward not betting.

Did you end up not betting?

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219

FinsRule

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September 29th, 2014 at 5:18:09 PM permalink

I actually placed the bet, then canceled when my horse was reluctant to load. He finished off the board. My daughters pick won and my wife's finished 2nd.

5 out of 7 picked, so each received $200. But all lost their bet. So I was pretty much the winner.

They should start up this contest again soon. They run it most weeks and I recommend it.

FinsRule

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September 29th, 2014 at 5:23:46 PM permalink

Thanks for everyones help.

The game theory part is interesting to me. I think the results in this are different than if you had just a random population. Gamblers love to gamble, so you should expect less people to drop out among gamblers.

Thanks again!

GWAE

GWAE

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September 29th, 2014 at 5:24:01 PM permalink

Quote: FinsRule
I actually placed the bet, then canceled when my horse was reluctant to load. He finished off the board. My daughters pick won and my wife's finished 2nd.

5 out of 7 picked, so each received $200. But all lost their bet. So I was pretty much the winner.

They should start up this contest again soon. They run it most weeks and I recommend it.

is this an online thing or a local track that does it?

Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed. I AM NOT PART OF GWAE RADIO SHOW

FinsRule