Discovery Channel Sep 10 Wed nite 3 new ganbling shows.

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September 8th, 2014 at 6:06:57 PM permalink

Looks like all new stuff, but nothing will
be there that we don't know already.
Should be good for a laugh or two.

http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/2014/09/02/discovery-to-air-all-in-all-night-three-poker-themed-specials-on-wednesday-september-10/298850/

"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."

MrV

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September 8th, 2014 at 6:43:35 PM permalink

Quote: EvenBob
Looks like all new stuff, but nothing will
be there that we don't know already.
Should be good for a laugh or two.

"Curmudgeon finally reveals his roulette system."

"What, me worry?"

terapined

terapined

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September 10th, 2014 at 11:04:14 AM permalink

Just a reminder.
Discovery channel tonight.
3 brand new shows, 3 solid hours on the subject of gambling.
8pm to 11pm
Get out the popcorn:-)

Its just a forum. Nothing here to get obsessed about.

Ayecarumba

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September 10th, 2014 at 12:25:32 PM permalink

Quote: beachbumbabs
The one called "Casino Secrets" might be the one Mike and Mission are in, shot in April. IDK for sure.

Any confirmation of Mike and Mission's appearance?

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci

wudged

wudged

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September 10th, 2014 at 12:41:02 PM permalink

Quote: Ayecarumba
Any confirmation of Mike and Mission's appearance?

Was there another thread somewhere that discussed them being on a TV show?

Riva

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September 10th, 2014 at 12:48:50 PM permalink

They're currently filming a documentary down at my place. It's title is "Secrets of Charitable Gaming." It will run for about 90 seconds so, I'll tell you its content and save you the time.....take ties in blackjack and shave payouts on everything else by 30%, don't allow odds or don't comes. Provide free popcorn and charge $5 for a 16-ounce beer! :)

Dieter
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Dieter

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September 10th, 2014 at 1:43:46 PM permalink

Quote: Riva
charge $5 for a 16-ounce beer!

And I thought your 25:1 roulette was bold...

May the cards fall in your favor.

Riva

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September 10th, 2014 at 1:58:32 PM permalink

Quote: Dieter
And I thought your 25:1 roulette was bold...

But it's Bud and Miller light!

Actually, and most event sponsors don't know this but, it's more profitable to sell can beer than it is to sell draft. The beer costs exactly the same per-ounce and, you don't have the 20-30% over-pour that you do with draft. And like gaming, you can get more transactions in per-hour selling can beer versus draft. The only way to make draft to be more profitable than cans is to eliminate the spoilage and accelerate the transaction time. Check out this website and you'll see what I mean> http://bottomsupbeer.com/

FleaStiff

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September 10th, 2014 at 3:29:30 PM permalink

Quote: terapined
Was cruising the net and saw that Discovery channel will be premiering 3 gambling shows Wed Sep 10

Thanks. Whatever re-runs or not; drek or not.... its a heck of a lot better to discover this now than tomorrow, when I'd have to go searching for 3:00am repeats or whatever. Now....where can I find a bar that will tune the TV to the Discovery channel for me?

Dieter
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Dieter

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September 10th, 2014 at 3:34:03 PM permalink

Quote: Riva
Check out this website and you'll see what I mean> http://bottomsupbeer.com/

BottomsUp system cuts into your profits by requiring special cups.

TurboTap uses standard cups, and fills from the top, but faster and with less spillage than standard taps. It's not an automatic measuring system, however, so spillage is still a possibility... but should get much less foamover, and be able to pour around 95%+ of the keg, IIRC.

May the cards fall in your favor.

terapined

terapined

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September 10th, 2014 at 3:55:31 PM permalink

Quote: FleaStiff
Thanks. Whatever re-runs or not; drek or not.... its a heck of a lot better to discover this now than tomorrow, when I'd have to go searching for 3:00am repeats or whatever. Now....where can I find a bar that will tune the TV to the Discovery channel for me?

My understanding is the 3 hrs tonight are brand new shows. That said, probably rehash info we already know.
11 pm will also have a gambling show but those are re-runs of another gambling show. I think "Beating Vegas"
A nice tip to the bartender should help. Also need multiple TV's in the bar so sports fanatics can still watch sports.
Sound may be an issue though.

Its just a forum. Nothing here to get obsessed about.

EvenBob

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September 10th, 2014 at 4:43:33 PM permalink

Quote: terapined
My understanding is the 3 hrs tonight are brand new shows. That said, probably rehash info we already know.
.

I'm betting I learn not one new thing
tonight. I want to see if they actually
say casinos give comps to lure you back
so you can lose more.

"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."

Wizard
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September 10th, 2014 at 5:04:47 PM permalink

Quote: beachbumbabs
The one called "Casino Secrets" might be the one Mike and Mission are in, shot in April. IDK for sure.

I almost forgot about that. I'll record all three shows and give my comments later.

Quote: EvenBob
I'm betting I learn not one new thing
tonight. I want to see if they actually
say casinos give comps to lure you back
so you can lose more.

That's obvious. Doesn't need to be said.

"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)

onenickelmiracle

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September 10th, 2014 at 5:45:32 PM permalink

First episode I've seen before. Think it's on Youtube in one form or another.

I am a robot.

EvenBob

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September 10th, 2014 at 6:01:31 PM permalink

1st one is for newbies, makes John Patrick
look like a genius. Play the slots near the
entrance, you're sure to win. lol.

"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."

onenickelmiracle

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September 10th, 2014 at 6:18:45 PM permalink

The casino design aspect is mostly voodoo in my opinion. If all this really worked, the casino wouldn't need to ever change the games, diminish comps, etc. They have logical reasons to believe their tricks work, but have no way of knowing they do, or how well. At ten, it's a new episode, but the first two were repeats.

I am a robot.

Wizard
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September 10th, 2014 at 8:47:04 PM permalink

Quote: onenickelmiracle
First episode I've seen before. Think it's on Youtube in one form or another.

I could take until the first commercial break only.

"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)

beachbumbabs

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September 10th, 2014 at 10:01:41 PM permalink

Quote: Wizard
I could take until the first commercial break only.

Yeah, pretty bad. Did not see any sign of you or Mission.

If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.

kewlj

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September 10th, 2014 at 10:31:37 PM permalink

I stumbled onto the first show in the last few minutes of the 8 o'clock hour, which was the final few minutes of the show. I then did watch most of the second show. I say 'stumbled', because despite this thread, which I didn't read, I wasn't aware of the shows and just happened to be channel surfing after catching up on the news of the day. I guess, it is my fault for missing this thread, as the first couple words of the title which is all I see in the recent posts section, didn't seem like something worth pursuing. lol Despite visiting this site several times a day, I only have limited time and my first priority is reading through any blackjack type material for info that could benefit me and second priority is maybe posting a comment or thought from my own experiences that I hope can benefit others. It is only on those occasions that I have too much time, that I read the other type threads and comment on things like current news ect.

Anyway, as I said, missed most of the first show. Hope to catch it sometime in the future, despite comments that it wasn't anything new. Second show, "casino secrets", seemed familiar to me. If you all weren't saying this was a new show, I would have thought I had seen it before. Maybe it was because the content of the show wasn't really anything new to me. It was worth the watch, just didn't really learn anything new. I didn't watch the poker show as I am not a poker player and it didn't seem relevant to me.

onenickelmiracle

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September 10th, 2014 at 10:48:39 PM permalink

If they made a show on dirty secrets of the casinos people would watch, but they never have made one. Suppose they won't feel like talking anymore and primarily shooting scenes from the street won't be sexy. I still want to know what's up with South Points cell phone interceptor.

I am a robot.

onenickelmiracle

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September 10th, 2014 at 10:54:20 PM permalink

If they made a show on dirty secrets of the casinos people would watch, but they never have made one. Suppose people won't feel like talking anymore and primarily shooting scenes from the street won't be sexy. I still want to know what's up with South Points cell phone interceptor and some other things I probably can't think of.

It was funny how the slot cheats said they didn't feel bad about taking the money because the slots weren't fair and ripped people off. Naturally they get decades and nobody I'm aware of saw prison stealing the slot paybacks of the casinos with the master key.

I am a robot.

Zcore13

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September 10th, 2014 at 10:56:16 PM permalink

Poker Underground was horrible. How does that even get on TV?

ZCore13

I am an employee of a Casino. Former Table Games Director,, current Pit Supervisor. All the personal opinions I post are my own and do not represent the opinions of the Casino or Tribe that I work for.

EvenBob

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September 11th, 2014 at 12:36:51 AM permalink

It was all crap, it was 'new' to Discovery, but
those shows have been around for years.
The first two, anyway. Whenever a casino
gives complete access, it's going to be sugar
coated pablum.

"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."

rainman

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September 11th, 2014 at 12:40:53 AM permalink

The poker show was painful to watch. Absolutely ridiculous!

nickolay411

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September 11th, 2014 at 1:19:03 AM permalink

Quote: rainman
The poker show was painful to watch. Absolutely ridiculous!

This is a pretty good interview with Molly Bloom, the woman who ran the underground poker games in LA

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IYvTktW2-2k

djatc

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September 11th, 2014 at 2:12:57 AM permalink

Well I was a bit worried as nowadays information flows freely, so I thought actual advantage plays were being disclosed (lots of snitches) but hearing all your thoughts on the shows makes me relieved. Sometimes a smart aspiring AP can piece together information from one place to another to crack the code.

"Man Babes" #AxelFabulous

Deucekies

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September 11th, 2014 at 2:27:22 AM permalink

The poker special cracked me up with how fake it was.

"These secret underground poker games have no problem with us bringing our cameras in!" And did you notice that all three games used the same chips? Coincidence?

Casinos are not your friends, they want your money. But so does Disneyland. And there is no chance in hell that you will go to Disneyland and come back with more money than you went with. - AxelWolf and Mickeycrimm

FleaStiff

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September 11th, 2014 at 2:38:28 AM permalink

Quote: EvenBob
Whenever a casino gives complete access, it's going to be sugar coated pablum.

Sure. Casinos want to avoid black eyes. So they run public relations stuff. Its sort of like renting the "location" out for the shoot but also renting their logo out for it. Their lawyers are going to want to read the script before anything airs.

I think it might be better if some of this gambling related stuff was filmed before a blue screen or something of generic casino activity. Or perhaps the way in which all those newscasts from Baghdad were filmed: on the roof of the hotel with the tops of pool side cabanas visible because it looked like a "middle east scene".

When you come right down to it, what can a casino really do but a bland public relations bit.

As to words like 'underground' ... if its shot using flood lights and camera dollies, it ain't gonna be no underground stuff. If you get full and complete sentences and audio that is louder than background noises, its not "underground". Often cops get a warrant to plant an audio bug but get nothing but unintelligible gibberish. Yet, that never seems to happen to these underground film crews.

Its like that radio station that adopted "pirate radio" as their slogan. The station was fully licensed and broadcasting only on its assigned frequency... nothing "pirate" about it. Just PR hooey for the station's new "image" in the marketplace.

odiousgambit

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September 11th, 2014 at 3:24:43 AM permalink

worst moment I saw might have been the statement after showing about free odds [paraphrasing] " now *you* have the edge playing craps!"

next worst:

in BJ: skip counting cards, just observe a table where everyone is losing and avoid a table where everyone is winning [at least they gave their reasoning* and didn't claim "now you have the edge!" ]

presumably the cheering table used up a bunch of aces and 10s while the glum table saw a bunch of small cards

the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: �Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!� She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder

FleaStiff

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September 11th, 2014 at 4:59:10 AM permalink

And the cheering table that used up the 10 value cards is like a slot machine that is now in a new pay cycle because it senses it has taken in enough money to re-set itself.

djatc

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September 11th, 2014 at 5:03:54 AM permalink

I always spin myself around 5 times before playing a slot machine because it confuses the machine into thinking different people have come by and passed on it, to make the payout higher. Also I make non-paying holds on video poker to let the machine think I am a sucker and change the RNG to my favor. Sometimes I also order a beer when I don't drink to make the cocktail waitress send a page out to the slot manager to loosen the machines since I'll probably give it right back because I'll be drunk.

"Man Babes" #AxelFabulous

strictlyAP

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September 11th, 2014 at 5:06:18 AM permalink

ive heard that the second option works

in florida I watched a guy back in the day discard part of a dealt straight flush because he said he changed the cards-
he wasnt sweating it though because it was old bingo machines and the geanie popped up on the redeal and gave him the straight flush anyway

The bet will not be paid- not now not ever

Ayecarumba

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September 11th, 2014 at 8:31:38 AM permalink

I thought the infomertial about security at the Aria, with access designed to force guests through "choke points" in order to get clear scans of their faces was interesting.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci

Wizard
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September 11th, 2014 at 8:40:56 AM permalink

I managed to finish watching the first show without puking, and still have the other two recorded.

There was a decent treatment of card counting but it ended with the conclusion that if you don't want to learn to count cards then "play at the cold tables." That effect would be extremely thin. He could have just as well said, play at the table where you can see lots of small cards, which would have had a much better correlation to value in the next hand, but still very small. Meanwhile, never was it said to avoid 6-5 blackjack.

It took about 25% of the show to build up to "take the odds" in craps and they treated it like it was some big secret.

I can't comment on what they're doing at the Taj Majal, but everything they said about slot placement is contrary to what I've observed in my slot survey and been told by slot managers here in Vegas. The advice about playing the machine with the bigger jackpot, all other things being equal, I would flatly disagree with, if the goal is to maximize return.

The part about horse racing I found interesting and don't know about it to comment, but would be interested in the comments of the serious horse bettors on the forum, if they caught the show.

"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)

Boz

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September 11th, 2014 at 8:47:44 AM permalink

I DVR'd them but let me guess, Anthony Curtis managed to get on at least one of them.

Wizard
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September 11th, 2014 at 8:50:34 AM permalink

Quote: Boz
I DVR'd them but let me guess, Anthony Curtis managed to get on at least one of them.

I saw the last few minutes of the second show, and yes, he was.

"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)

kewlj

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September 11th, 2014 at 9:04:52 AM permalink

Quote: Wizard

There was a decent treatment of card counting but it ended with the conclusion that if you don't want to learn to count cards then "play at the cold tables." That effect would be extremely thin.

One of the players that I network with regularly, uses a variation of this cold table theory. He wong's into a table where one or two players exit mid-shoe, figuring that small cards have just come out. His logic is that small cards came out causing the dealer to make his stiff hands rather than break. In my experience, seeing the dealer draw 4-6's to his stiff hands several times in a row to make 20's and 21 CAN be the type of thing that will drive players from the table. BUT so can the dealer drawing blackjacks and 2-card 20's several times in a row, which could result in a negative count. To just assume the small card thing is asinine and I see no advantage to that and have repeatedly told him so. But he continues to apply his flawed logic.

Discovery's website says it has no plans to re-run the shows at this time, but I hope to catch that first one sometime, based on your review.

terapined

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September 11th, 2014 at 9:15:10 AM permalink

Quote: Wizard

The part about horse racing I found interesting and don't know about it to comment, but would be interested in the comments of the serious horse bettors on the forum, if they caught the show.

No mention of the huge rake around 18 per cent which is a monster drawback to betting horses.
I will look at class, jockey and trainer win percentage but the biggie wasn't even mentioned, Beyer speed figures.
You allways look at the speed figures 1st.
To me, length of past races is very important. Huge difference in say 6 furlongs as opposed to 1 1/2 mile.
Trainers are allways moving horses to shorter or longer races which makes handicapping difficult to figure out.

This is all from somebody (me) that just dabbles in horse racing.

Its just a forum. Nothing here to get obsessed about.

4ofaKind

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September 11th, 2014 at 9:16:56 AM permalink

Quote: Wizard
The part about horse racing I found interesting and don't know about it to comment, but would be interested in the comments of the serious horse bettors on the forum, if they caught the show.

Owned several thoroughbreds in New York for years. Some of the handicapping tips they mentioned might be worthy of a quick glance, but that's about it. The Racing Form might be useful when looking at high end horses in high end races. Other then that it makes a good absorbent for dogs to piss and shit on. When it comes to horse racing inside info is second to none. Usually 8 to 10 horses in daily average races. Better chance of a win when compared to roulette.

Personally, I stopped watching before the first show even finished. I found it to be completely ridiculous, and seemed like a show being sponsored by the casinos trying to lure suckers in.

Artemis

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September 11th, 2014 at 9:35:04 AM permalink

Quote: Wizard
I managed to finish watching the first show without puking, and still have the other two recorded.

There was a decent treatment of card counting but it ended with the conclusion that if you don't want to learn to count cards then "play at the cold tables." That effect would be extremely thin. He could have just as well said, play at the table where you can see lots of small cards, which would have had a much better correlation to value in the next hand, but still very small. Meanwhile, never was it said to avoid 6-5 blackjack.

It took about 25% of the show to build up to "take the odds" in craps and they treated it like it was some big secret.

I can't comment on what they're doing at the Taj Majal, but everything they said about slot placement is contrary to what I've observed in my slot survey and been told by slot managers here in Vegas. The advice about playing the machine with the bigger jackpot, all other things being equal, I would flatly disagree with, if the goal is to maximize return.

The part about horse racing I found interesting and don't know about it to comment, but would be interested in the comments of the serious horse bettors on the forum, if they caught the show.

As to craps... Is the game of craps really beatable? I want to know more about the craps experts (Charles "Charlie" Rando & Erica Lindgren) in the show. I googled and found nothing except for this funny Youtube, "Stanford Wong, Dice Expert vs Kim Lee Craps Challenge".

I'm OK with Corps which pick and choose clienteles. Both insurance companies and casinos have the right to pick and choose customers. They may keep profitable ones and kicked out the rest. But, I'm not OK with a casino supervisor who says counting cards... is like stealing food from a buffet (a foodlifting offense), or video-taping a movie in a cinema (a piracy offense).

Wizard
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September 11th, 2014 at 11:34:10 AM permalink

By the way, I was a little skeptical about the claim that the best way to turn $30 into $1000 was betting a single number in roulette. I thought perhaps parlaying wins in craps, betting full odds, would be better. However, based on some rough calculations, I think roulette would still be better. With 5x odds it would be close, but I wouldn't call that a standard craps rule.

However, I can offer a better way. Bet $28 on a single number, which will get you to $1,010. If that fails, you still have $2 you can hopefully parlay up to $1000.

On another topic, I liked the comment regarding roulette that, "Only in casinos is 0 not an even number." One of these days somebody should take it to Gaming if he bets on even and loses to a zero. I'm not saying the player should win, but it would make for a good story. I could picture math books being submitted as evidence.

"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)

Deucekies

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September 11th, 2014 at 11:59:24 AM permalink

Quote: Wizard

On another topic, I liked the comment regarding roulette that, "Only in casinos is 0 not an even number." One of these days somebody should take it to Gaming if he bets on even and loses to a zero. I'm not saying the player should win, but it would make for a good story. I could picture math books being submitted as evidence.

It would be interesting, but surely the official rules on file with Gaming, if not a casino's internal controls, define "even" as not including zero, yeah?

Casinos are not your friends, they want your money. But so does Disneyland. And there is no chance in hell that you will go to Disneyland and come back with more money than you went with. - AxelWolf and Mickeycrimm

mustangsally

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September 11th, 2014 at 12:19:05 PM permalink

Quote: Wizard
However, I can offer a better way. Bet $28 on a single number, which will get you to $1,010. If that fails, you still have $2 you can hopefully parlay up to $1000.

The best way might be
the way shown by SN Ethier to be using don't pass with lay odds (best = highest prob of success)
I have not challenged that paper yet but have it close to me

This (your way) is called Bold Play shown to the world by the duo of

Dubins and Savage

"Dubins and Savage wrote a book that appeared in 1965 titled How to Gamble if You Must"

It was also in the Beatles' "Help" movie too if you watch closely at the end of the British version
John was a math guy too (number 9, number 9, number 9 ...)

Lester Dubins (April 27, 1920 � February 11, 2010) was an American mathematician noted primarily for his research in probability theory.

=============================================
Sally shows using Excel
the probability of hitting $1000 before ruin (Bet $28 on a single number) = (when p=1/38) = 0.02801776

BruceZ shows this too
He wrote some R code for me

pdoub = function(br,goal,max_bet,pwin,odds,thresh,prob=1) {
  if (br < 1 | prob < thresh) return(0)
  bet = ceiling((goal-br)/odds)   # bet needed to reach goal
  limit = min(br,max_bet)         # limit = max bet possible
  if ( bet < limit )
    pwin + (1-pwin)*pdoubb(br-bet,goal,max_bet,pwin,odds,thresh,prob*(1-pwin)) 
  else 
    pwin*pdoubb(br+odds*limit,goal,max_bet,pwin,odds,thresh,prob*pwin) + (1-pwin)*pdoubb(br-limit,goal,max_bet,pwin,odds,thresh,prob*(1-pwin)) 
}
require(compiler)
pdoubb = cmpfun(pdoub)

p <- pdoubb(30,1000,200,1/38,35,0.0000000001)
p

results
> p
[1] 0.02801776

higher than just bet all $30 at 1/38 = 0.0263

I doubt any one player could feel that difference between the two methods

I thinks if betting $27 first,
then even money bets to exactly hit the $1000 target would do even better, as one should know going past the target removes points
That would leave to bet Bold with $975 at 18/38 = abouts 0.966599621 in US

1/38 * 0.966599621 = 0.02543683213157894736842105263158
Plus $3 Bold play for 1/38 on a loss = abouts 0.002662643 =
0.02809947513157894736842105263158

(maybe easier to create the matrix and solve using Q*T or (I-S)^-1*T)

Sally now tired

I Heart Vi Hart

Deucekies

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September 11th, 2014 at 12:54:06 PM permalink

The best way to turn $30 into $1000 is to buy $30 in ones, then paint them green. Now with the $750 in greens you have, martingale $50 units until you get to $1000. It's 100% guaranteed to win.

Casinos are not your friends, they want your money. But so does Disneyland. And there is no chance in hell that you will go to Disneyland and come back with more money than you went with. - AxelWolf and Mickeycrimm

Wizard
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Joined: Oct 14, 2009

September 11th, 2014 at 1:57:25 PM permalink

Quote: mustangsally
The best way might be
the way shown by SN Ethier to be using don't pass with lay odds (best = highest prob of success)
I have not challenged that paper yet but have it close to me

I thought of that, but dismissed it because when laying odds you risk a lot to win a little. You'd have to go through more steps to get to $1,000, exposing more money to the house edge.

Then again, I could be wrong.

I'm teetering on whether this is a good use of my time or not.

As long as you did that roulette program, perhaps you'd care to do it?

"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)

aceofspades

aceofspades

Threads: 366
Posts: 6506

Joined: Apr 4, 2012

September 11th, 2014 at 2:30:10 PM permalink

I wonder when the Speed Count Secrets episode will air :)
(Not trying to start any fights - just bringing the LULZ)

onenickelmiracle