gamblers near miss fallacy(roulette)

I've noticed that gamblers seem to lose more often to near misses--numbers that were right next to the one bet--than actually hitting.

I've figured out why this is. It's not because of just the obvious - if you bet on a single number, there are two numbers on each side the ball could land on for a near miss - its also because of gamblers mixing of "physical" near miss and "numerical" near miss.

For example, lets say the person bets on 18. Now if the ball lands on 6 or 31, the person will curse (or point out how close they were right) by stating, "damn, right next door. Just one away."

However, if the ball lands in 17 or 19, the person will also state how close they were, "Damn, just one number away. Almost had it."

Hmm, never mind, the ball landed as far away as possible on the wheel from where your choice was.

So, I call this phenomenon, gamblers near miss fallacy.

If you're betting on just one number, then you're always twice as likely to get a near miss.

Quote: Keyser

If you're betting on just one number, then you're always twice as likely to get a near miss.

Four times as likely!

If it falls in the pocket next to your number,
it's always 37 pockets away because of the
odds. With random there's no such thing as
a near miss.