guitarmandp
guitarmandp
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July 12th, 2014 at 2:29:46 AM permalink
I am kicking myself. I was playing the don't pass today and I started with basically $60. I had the most unbelievable winning streak ever. I bet $30 and then put $30 worth of odds and I went an unbelivable winning streak. I was almost at $1,000 and I told myself I was going to leave once I hit $1,000. I was about $20 away from being at $1,000 and then my luck turned and a shooter hit 6 points, next shooter hit 3 points and before I knew it I was cleaned out. Am I the only person this has happened to?
OnceDear
OnceDear
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July 12th, 2014 at 3:10:19 AM permalink
Quote: guitarmandp

...before I knew it I was cleaned out. Am I the only person this has happened to?


certainly not. Setting a target like "I'll leave if/when I'm up to $$$$" Strikes me as a good enough idea, but you cannot be sure that target will be reached, and you can easily find yourself justifying Martingdale tactics when just a few $ away, with disastrous results.
I find one of the biggest risks is floating happily through that target and pushing on for some higher amount, only to end up losing.
Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
1BB
1BB
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July 12th, 2014 at 3:21:32 AM permalink
I don't set monetary goals, opting to play as long as I have an advantage. I have been ahead substantial amounts in the short term many times only to see it disappear. It happens to everyone and I expect it will happen to me again, sooner rather than later. I don't worry about it as I look at the long term.

What you did seems to be fairly common. At what point did you set the $1000 goal? Can you honestly say you would have stopped there? If only you would have set the goal at $980. :-) There's always next time. Don't beat yourself up.
Many people, especially ignorant people, want to punish you for speaking the truth. - Mahatma Ghandi
RS
RS
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July 12th, 2014 at 5:36:49 AM permalink
Better off to set a loss limit. If you're at $980, play until you're at $900 or $1100. If you hit $900, quit. If you hit $1100, reevaluate (ie: play until you're at $1k or $1.2k).
FleaStiff
FleaStiff
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July 12th, 2014 at 6:24:50 AM permalink
Ain't no one who really and truly expects to buy his stocks at the absolute low point and sell at the exact highest point.

You always walk away from the table after your luck had changed and you always leave a bit of your money there.
GWAE
GWAE
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July 12th, 2014 at 6:28:33 AM permalink
Quote: RS

Better off to set a loss limit. If you're at $980, play until you're at $900 or $1100. If you hit $900, quit. If you hit $1100, reevaluate (ie: play until you're at $1k or $1.2k).



I agree here 100%. This is what I do in VP. If I hit something decent like 4 aces I will tell myself I will play down to the nearest $100 or up to the nearest 100. There are times where I will be at 485 and get a 4oak and jump up to 540 so I do the same again. Play to 500 or 600. Even if I plan on playing a little more that day I will take a walk around the casino or go get a drink.
Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed. I AM NOT PART OF GWAE RADIO SHOW
OnceDear
OnceDear
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July 12th, 2014 at 7:30:31 AM permalink
Quote: FleaStiff

Ain't no one who really and truly expects to buy his stocks at the absolute low point and sell at the exact highest point.

You always walk away from the table after your luck had changed and you always leave a bit of your money there.



But the random chance, or luck, at the betting table is not really the same as the buying of Stocks where the future price is driven by supply and demand. The direction of your future luck at the table is unrelated to your past lucky run, except in your perception.
Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
Wanderer
Wanderer
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July 12th, 2014 at 8:17:52 AM permalink
Quote: RS

Better off to set a loss limit. If you're at $980, play until you're at $900 or $1100. If you hit $900, quit. If you hit $1100, reevaluate (ie: play until you're at $1k or $1.2k).



This is what I do. If I am at a win total I am pretty happy with, I may still try to push it further but give myself a limit in case I start sliding back. I am not going to give it back to them.
guitarmandp
guitarmandp
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July 12th, 2014 at 2:31:12 PM permalink
Quote: 1BB

I don't set monetary goals, opting to play as long as I have an advantage. I have been ahead substantial amounts in the short term many times only to see it disappear. It happens to everyone and I expect it will happen to me again, sooner rather than later. I don't worry about it as I look at the long term.

What you did seems to be fairly common. At what point did you set the $1000 goal? Can you honestly say you would have stopped there? If only you would have set the goal at $980. :-) There's always next time. Don't beat yourself up.



I had about $950 in chips in front of me or something close to that. I said I'm stopping after I have $1,000 in front of my rack. The problem is sometimes when your hot you feel indestructible
Beardgoat
Beardgoat
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July 12th, 2014 at 4:49:41 PM permalink
Quote: RS

Better off to set a loss limit. If you're at $980, play until you're at $900 or $1100. If you hit $900, quit. If you hit $1100, reevaluate (ie: play until you're at $1k or $1.2k).



Seems like a lot of people like this strategy... As do I
Venthus
Venthus
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July 12th, 2014 at 5:12:05 PM permalink
I tend to double-hand BJ and, once I hit a win goal (lately, it's been +500 or +1000 with a 1k buy in, playing green/black), I leave once both hands lose.
onenickelmiracle
onenickelmiracle
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July 12th, 2014 at 6:27:39 PM permalink
It's common in one form or another for gamblers.
I am a robot.
skrbornevrymin
skrbornevrymin
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July 12th, 2014 at 6:41:18 PM permalink
Quote: guitarmandp

I am kicking myself. I was playing the don't pass today and I started with basically $60. I had the most unbelievable winning streak ever. I bet $30 and then put $30 worth of odds and I went an unbelivable winning streak. I was almost at $1,000 and I told myself I was going to leave once I hit $1,000. I was about $20 away from being at $1,000 and then my luck turned and a shooter hit 6 points, next shooter hit 3 points and before I knew it I was cleaned out. Am I the only person this has happened to?



This is the problem with a don't pass strategy - one or two hot shooters can wipe you out. The way I prevent this is to only play 1 bet per shooter win or lose. Once in a while I will play 2 points per shooter. It seems to help me from getting wiped out too fast.
Joeman
Joeman
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July 13th, 2014 at 8:31:28 PM permalink
Not at Craps, but I had almost this exact same scenario the first time I played Spanish 21. This must have been 12 or so years ago. I bought in for $100, and went on an incredible run. Once i got up to the $800-$900 mark, I set my goal at $1000. I was eyeballing that yellow chip! I had never taken a yellow chip to the cage.

I had it up to $975 or so, and a couple of times I had a bet out there that would've put me over the $1000 mark if it had won. Then it turned south fast. I couldn't win a hand to save my life. Fortunately, I quit before I lost it all. My thinking was that I almost had it up to $1000, I'm going to make darn sure I leave with some profit. I finally colored up a little over $200.

Very frustrating. BTW, I still have yet to cash one of those yellow chips!
"Dealer has 'rock'... Pay 'paper!'"
Beardgoat
Beardgoat
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July 13th, 2014 at 10:15:28 PM permalink
I almost buy always buy in at any table with $100 whether it be blackjack, craps, roulette, etc.... And I have only once turned it into a yellow chip. I was so freaking proud of myself. I took photos of it. I held it in my hands for a while. I showed all my friends... But about 5 minutes after I cashed it in I was over it haha. The craps streak was quite a run to get that yellow chip and I will never forget that night
guitarmandp
guitarmandp
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July 15th, 2014 at 1:22:50 AM permalink
Quote: Beardgoat

I almost buy always buy in at any table with $100 whether it be blackjack, craps, roulette, etc.... And I have only once turned it into a yellow chip. I was so freaking proud of myself. I took photos of it. I held it in my hands for a while. I showed all my friends... But about 5 minutes after I cashed it in I was over it haha. The craps streak was quite a run to get that yellow chip and I will never forget that night



I've made over $1,000 on one $54 across roll where a shooter rolled for 30 minutes. The funny thing is that you might sit at a craps table for an entire day and not see a roll like that, another day there might be two or three rolls like that during your session.
guitarmandp
guitarmandp
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July 15th, 2014 at 1:26:31 AM permalink
Quote: skrbornevrymin

This is the problem with a don't pass strategy - one or two hot shooters can wipe you out. The way I prevent this is to only play 1 bet per shooter win or lose. Once in a while I will play 2 points per shooter. It seems to help me from getting wiped out too fast.



Here's the flaw with that strategy and I tried that once and I was at a table where everybody was making the first point and then going straight out on the 2nd point. You will see tables like that a lot where people make one point, and then go out. On a table like this you should only be down a little bit unless they've rolled tons of naturals in the come out rolls. Use the 1 bet per shooter strategy on a table like this and you will get crushed.

I do 3 points per shooter.
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