AP Question-What would you do?
You sit down and play. Two and a half hours later you've played 6200 games (4 cycles) and you still haven't hit the 5-spot. You are $610 stuck. The meter is at $303. You weigh your options in deciding what to do.
1. Quit the play and quit gambling forever. No one makes money gambling except the people that sell the books.
2. Quit the play and go find another play. You got your butt kicked playing keno but you will make it up playing video poker or live poker.
3. Keep playing.
4. None of the above
Which option would you choose? I'll give my answer tomorrow.
Its like the Lions share. My last trip, I simply put in 21 bucks, 7 three buck bets. Had an incredible 20 min run having hundreds of chances at the jackpot.
Lost my 21, time to move on.
This game is reported as a slight positive expectation game, still hasn't hit. Hope to play it in a few months, probably just dump 21 into it again.
If its a good play then 1. Quit the play and quit gambling forever. minus "No one makes money gambling except the people that sell the books." because if you cant handle losing 600 bucks on a 5 spot you are in the wrong business.Quote: mickeycrimmYou stumble upon a stand alone five-spot keno progressive early one morning. It's a 50 cent game. The meter is at $210. The 3 of 5 pays 5 for 1. The 4 of 5 pays 32 for1. You do the math. The game has a 19.33% drop between top line hits. The frequency of the top line hit is 1551. So the average cost per cycle is $150. On turbo speed the game plays at 40 GPM (2400 games per hour). The meter runs at 3%.
You sit down and play. Two and a half hours later you've played 6200 games (4 cycles) and you still haven't hit the 5-spot. You are $610 stuck. The meter is at $303. You weigh your options in deciding what to do.
1. Quit the play and quit gambling forever. No one makes money gambling except the people that sell the books.
2. Quit the play and go find another play. You got your butt kicked playing keno but you will make it up playing video poker or live poker.
3. Keep playing.
4. None of the above
Which option would you choose? I'll give my answer tomorrow.
Its a five spot. Nothing like lion share odds.Quote: terapinedI would walk away. Even with a slight positive expectation game, can still lose your shirt.
Its like the Lions share. My last trip, I simply put in 21 bucks, 7 three buck bets. Had an incredible 20 min run having hundreds of chances at the jackpot.
Lost my 21, time to move on.
This game is reported as a slight positive expectation game, still hasn't hit. Hope to play it in a few months, probably just dump 21 into it again.
Players keep playing at negative EV games... this Keno Machine is being described as if it were plus EV ... but the "expectation" never materializes so its either illusory or some calculation is off.Quote: RSIf the math is right you keep playing.
At some point the decision will be made by the bankroll.... should the player make an informed decision before reaching that point?
Quote: terapinedI would walk away. Even with a slight positive expectation game, can still lose your shirt.
The problem with many positive expectation games is precisely that you need to hit the very unlikely jackpot to achieve said positive expectation. That's where you lose your shirt, skrt, purse, arm and leg ;)
That said, I've often wondered what the return of the most favorable VP games, such as 10/7 Double Bonus, would be if the toyal were not considered. IN the case of Loose Deuces, in particular the very favorable game at the D, I suppose the question would apply to both without the royal and the 4 deuces payoff (this machine pays off 2,500 coins).
Quote: NareedThe problem with many positive expectation games is precisely that you need to hit the very unlikely jackpot to achieve said positive expectation. That's where you lose your shirt, skrt, purse, arm and leg ;)
That said, I've often wondered what the return of the most favorable VP games, such as 10/7 Double Bonus, would be if the toyal were not considered. IN the case of Loose Deuces, in particular the very favorable game at the D, I suppose the question would apply to both without the royal and the 4 deuces payoff (this machine pays off 2,500 coins).
It's easy.
You look at the payout returns, find the total return, and subtract the return given from event X. Looking at 10/7 DB:
https://wizardofodds.com/games/video-poker/strategy/a-1-b-51-c-1-d-0-d-1-d-1-d-3-d-5-d-7-d-10-d-50-d-80-d-160-d-50-d-800/
The return on the royal is 1.665%. The overall return on the game is +0.1725%.
The return without hitting a royal is 100.1725% - 1.665%. 1.4925% House Edge, and return is 98.5075.
If you're properly bankrolled and the play is worth it (dollars per hour), then go ahead and play.
Being properly bankrolled is the tough part. I don't think many people (here) are properly bankrolled to pound away at the Lion's Share game. You run great risk being under bankrolled, even if you're playing a +EV game, due to the high variance.
Quote: FleaStiffPlayers keep playing at negative EV games... this Keno Machine is being described as if it were plus EV ... but the "expectation" never materializes so its either illusory or some calculation is off.
At some point the decision will be made by the bankroll.... should the player make an informed decision before reaching that point?
In the long run, the expectation will materialize.
Are there free drinks?
AND
Play on
What economist was it who said in the long run we are all dead?Quote: RSIn the long run, the expectation will materialize.
100% pay = 0.19337*1550.5686=299.83+
JP EV is $303/$299.83=1.01057+
This is for $1 denom, but can be considered as "units". So if one puts in $1 per game (2 units) the above holds true.
In regards to OP tossing in $3100, and being -$610 (do I read that correct? or do you mean -$305) chasing $303 does not look like +EV to your bankroll, but is certainly fresh meat for a noob.
Quote: FleaStiffWhat economist was it who said in the long run we are all dead?
Not sure who said that, but sounds like a negative view.
The post I was referring to, it seems like you're saying not to play the game because it "isn't working".
John Maynard Keynes. In 1923. And he is, in fact, dead. So there.Quote: FleaStiffWhat economist was it who said in the long run we are all dead?
It's not how you take it when you are winning. That's an easy thing to do. It's how you take it when you are losing. Do you have the heart to fight your way through the losing streaks? Do you have faith in what you are doing? Do you believe in yourself? These are questions that I struggled through in my early days in the gambling world.
I'll give my answer tomorrow when I'm sober.
Quote: mickeycrimmYou stumble upon a stand alone five-spot keno progressive early one morning. It's a 50 cent game. The meter is at $210. The 3 of 5 pays 5 for 1. The 4 of 5 pays 32 for1. You do the math. The game has a 19.33% drop between top line hits. The frequency of the top line hit is 1551. So the average cost per cycle is $150. On turbo speed the game plays at 40 GPM (2400 games per hour). The meter runs at 3%.
You sit down and play. Two and a half hours later you've played 6200 games (4 cycles) and you still haven't hit the 5-spot. You are $610 stuck. The meter is at $303. You weigh your options in deciding what to do.
1. Quit the play and quit gambling forever. No one makes money gambling except the people that sell the books.
2. Quit the play and go find another play. You got your butt kicked playing keno but you will make it up playing video poker or live poker.
3. Keep playing.
4. None of the above
Which option would you choose? I'll give my answer tomorrow.
Assuming that you still have the bankroll to keep playing, you keep playing, unless you know of a better play elsewhere.
This also assumes that you know for a fact that the game is fair.
If the % and hourly is real good you continue. If not and its marginal, you can say F it and go chase some tail and booze.Quote: AxiomOfChoiceAssuming that you still have the bankroll to keep playing, you keep playing, unless you know of a better play elsewhere.
This also assumes that you know for a fact that the game is fair.
Quote: Mission146Keep Calm AND Play on
And that is exactly what I do, Mission. I might be muttering some cuss words when it happens but I don't quit until I achieve my objective. If it was a play when I sat down on it, then it is a play until I hit the 5-spot. In the early days I would think all kinds weird stuff (the game is gaffed, I'm being cheated) when I went into a losing streak, but not anymore. Getting stretched out on a play is just part of AP life. It happens all the time. I expect to make a profit when I sit down on a play like I described and I usually do. But not every time. Sometimes I get my butt kicked. But through the long haul of it everything averages out and I make a decent earn.
Through hundreds of these 5-spot progressive plays my record is 8200 games, about 5.3 cycles. I actually feel kind of lucky that that is my record. On the flip side I've hit the 5-spot on the first game once. Twice I've done it in 4 games. I've hit it in 7 games a few times.
Axiom, Axel, Buzzard, and a few others are right on the mark. But Mission's answer is short and sweet, clear and concise. Play on, baby. We're gonna play until we hit the damn thing.
Quote: FaceYou left out some crucially important information...Are there free drinks?
Yes, but I do the drinking thing bass akwards. I can get all the free drinks I want when I'm on a machine but I only drink coffee when I'm working. If one sip of booze touches my lips I'm not gonna work anymore. I'm headed to the bar where I can jaw jack with the other ten fools on the stools, make passes at any hot chicks that come along. ...and generally make a fool out of my drunk ass. But work and drink at the same time? That's totally out of the question for me.
Quote: 98ClubsPartial analysis: 3/5 + 4/5 hits total 0.80663. (1-0.80663)=0.19337. 80C5/20C5=1550.5686
100% pay = 0.19337*1550.5686=299.83+
JP EV is $303/$299.83=1.01057+
This is for $1 denom, but can be considered as "units". So if one puts in $1 per game (2 units) the above holds true.
In regards to OP tossing in $3100, and being -$610 (do I read that correct? or do you mean -$305) chasing $303 does not look like +EV to your bankroll, but is certainly fresh meat for a noob.
In the OP I was pretty clear that it is a 50 cent bet. At $210 it is a 10.7% advantage with the meter thrown in.
Quote: RSIt's easy.
You look at the payout returns, find the total return, and subtract the return given from event X. Looking at 10/7 DB:
https://wizardofodds.com/games/video-poker/strategy/a-1-b-51-c-1-d-0-d-1-d-1-d-3-d-5-d-7-d-10-d-50-d-80-d-160-d-50-d-800/
The return on the royal is 1.665%. The overall return on the game is +0.1725%.
The return without hitting a royal is 100.1725% - 1.665%. 1.4925% House Edge, and return is 98.5075.
In other words if you don't hit the jackpot you'll likely lose money.
If so, then this answers the question "why would casinos place +EV games on the floor?" Also why plunking down $20 or $100 doesn't mean you'll win money (which is actually the same thing).
Often I wonder whether machines with a nominally lower return would be better to play considering higher payoffs for lesser hands. I'm sure they won't be, but the doubt strikes me now and then.
Quote: NareedIf so, then this answers the question "why would casinos place +EV games on the floor?".
In the old days not even IGT knew the theoretical payback of the game. They would invent a video poker payscale then pay people to play the game. They would take a look at the hold after so many hands had been played to determine the payback of the game. It was actually video poker pros that taught the casinos-and the manufacturers- about the theoretical payback of their games.
Quote: NareedIf so, then this answers the question "why would casinos place +EV games on the floor?".
Some casinos bought into the theory that no one can play computer perfect strategy, hence they thought they could put a game like FPDW on the floor and still make a profit. A classic example of this would be Duke's Casino, a little dive joint across the street from John Ascuaga's Nugget in Sparks. Five California doctors owned the joint. In order to boost their business they put in a lot of full pay games with promotions and advertised heavily.
Doug Reul was the first to arrive. He crushed them on quarter five-play FPDW with a double royal promotion. After they got rid of him he told Al and me about it. So Al and I went in and crushed them. After they got rid of us we told a lot of people about it. Duke's got crushed some more.
All Duke's ever got was pro action. Ploppies didn't go to the joint. Duke's is now a parking lot.
Quote: mickeycrimmYes, but I do the drinking thing bass akwards. I can get all the free drinks I want when I'm on a machine but I only drink coffee when I'm working. If one sip of booze touches my lips I'm not gonna work anymore. I'm headed to the bar where I can jaw jack with the other ten fools on the stools, make passes at any hot chicks that come along. ...and generally make a fool out of my drunk ass. But work and drink at the same time? That's totally out of the question for me.
Understood. Admittedly it's still hard for me to look at it as "a job", despite the fact I don't question any of the APs here that they conduct it as one. I suppose my first reaction is to look at it as "just hitting a button", which of course I would want to get hammered while doing. I always forget the part of having to search and do math to find that productive button.
Quote: NareedIn other words if you don't hit the jackpot you'll likely lose money.
If so, then this answers the question "why would casinos place +EV games on the floor?" Also why plunking down $20 or $100 doesn't mean you'll win money (which is actually the same thing).
Often I wonder whether machines with a nominally lower return would be better to play considering higher payoffs for lesser hands. I'm sure they won't be, but the doubt strikes me now and then.
This doesn't make sense. It doesn't matter to the casino if most people win money or lose money; all that matters is the the total amount of money won or lost. If one person wins $1000 and 9 people lose $100 each, the casino does not make money. So, it's doesn't matter if you will probably win or probably lose; what matters is your expectation.
Quote: mickeycrimmAll Duke's ever got was pro action. Ploppies didn't go to the joint. Duke's is now a parking lot.
When I first went to Vegas I gravitated to VP rather quickly. It was easy to understand and I figured I could play it well. I was half-right. I could lpay it well enough. That is, I understood quickly not to hold cards to give me good but non-paying hands. But I did not know the strategies.
I dind't know the pay tables varied, either. I knew different games had different pays, yes. But I figured deuces wild at, say Excalibur was the same as at Harrah's. It was only when I began to read WoO that I understood differenetly.
The thing is most newbies may have a good feel for strategy and play well enough without consulting anyone. But if they don't know the difference between a 98% and a 101.7% pay table, they'll play anything. That's why you can see people playing regular DB next to a bank of full pay DB.
BTW though I use now the Wizard's own simple strategy for full pay DW, I tend to screw up a little from time to time. Once I held suited Q,A. I remember because I hit a natural royal. But it was the wrong hold (now ask me if I care <w>)
Quote: NareedBTW though I use now the Wizard's own simple strategy for full pay DW, I tend to screw up a little from time to time. Once I held suited Q,A. I remember because I hit a natural royal. But it was the wrong hold (now ask me if I care <w>)
I once held a pair of tens, hit the draw button, and at the same time seen that I had the Ace-Queen-Ten of Hearts in the hand. To late. Here came the King-Ten of Hearts. Now I may not have hit the royal had I made the correct hold, since I probably wouldn't have hit the draw button at the same fraction of a second. But I was sure pissed at the time.
Quote: mickeycrimm5.3 cycles is not my record to achieve an objective. I have another keno play where the frequency is 344 to snap the meter off. My record on that game is 2580 games, about 7.5 cycles. But my all time record, in 18 years of banging on machines, is 4400 games between quads playing 9/6 Jacks at the Golden Nugget in Laughlin, about 10.4 cycles. Does anyone know what the odds are on that occurring?
According to the Wizard, the probability of quads in 9/6 JoB is 0.002355. So the probability of not getting quads is 1 - 0.002355 = 0.997645. So the probability of not getting quads in any particular 4400 games is 0.997645 ^ 4400 = 0.000031227 = about 1 in 32,000.
That isn't really that bad, especially considering it's your worst result ever, and you have played a lot. Your odds of getting a royal on your first hand of a session are worse than that (has that ever happened to you? You mentioned that you have hit the jackpot in keno on your first game twice ...)
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceAccording to the Wizard, the probability of quads in 9/6 JoB is 0.002355. So the probability of not getting quads is 1 - 0.002355 = 0.997645. So the probability of not getting quads in any particular 4400 games is 0.997645 ^ 4400 = 0.000031227 = about 1 in 32,000.
That isn't really that bad, especially considering it's your worst result ever, and you have played a lot. Your odds of getting a royal on your first hand of a session are worse than that (has that ever happened to you? You mentioned that you have hit the jackpot in keno on your first game twice ...)
Thanks for the answer, Axiom. Actually, through hundreds of plays I hit the solid five (frequency is 1551) once on the first game. And that happened just a couple of months ago. I did it in 4 games twice. I've never hit a royal on the first game. The most unusual occurrence at video poker I was playing straight through Flush Attack on a promotion at the Pioneer in Laughlin. I hit two diamond royals an hour apart on the same machine. Then a couple of hours later I hit a club royal on a different machine.
Quote: vetsenA little over 1 in 33,100 starting on a single particular hand. At any time over the course of your career? That's a much tougher question, and we'd of course need to know how many hands you've played.
I couldn't tell you exactly how many hands of video poker I've played but it is certainly several million. In some stretches I would play video poker 6 hours a day, about 900 games per hour, for as long as 180 straight days.
Quote: mickeycrimmBut I was sure pissed at the time.
I can understand that. Particularly if you were playing higher than nickels (and it's hard not to).
From time to time I'll make bad holds for a very unlikely big payoff. Typically when I'm down to the last of my buy-in and either hoping for a one-time miracle, or am tired and just want to lose or win and go to bed. I once held a lone Qh and got a wild royal. I won and went to bed. Most times I just waste the 25 cents.
Quote: mickeycrimmMy longest royal drought was 250,000 games where the frequency was 45,000.
That is a mere 1-in-258 occurrence.
Of course, you don't hit that many royals in your lifetime, so this is still a once-in-a-lifetime kind of drought (since every royal starts a new streak...)
Quote: mickeycrimmI Just got home from the bar. I'm drunker than three billy goats. I read all your answers. There are some very good answers, and there are some very bad answers. The very good answers come from the experienced AP's. Those who have never lived the experience of losing on a play when you held an advantage, well, you don't have much experience in the spot. The losing plays, even when you held the advantage, are part of an AP's life.
It's not how you take it when you are winning. That's an easy thing to do. It's how you take it when you are losing. Do you have the heart to fight your way through the losing streaks? Do you have faith in what you are doing? Do you believe in yourself? These are questions that I struggled through in my early days in the gambling world.
I'll give my answer tomorrow when I'm sober.
I lost $700 today playing my standard mediocre counting game (mediocre due to the rules available, not due to my skill :) ). But I'm confident I was playing with an edge.
I'll go back next and get them. But for me, "next time" is probably more than a month away.
Quote: mickeycrimmYes, but I do the drinking thing bass akwards. I can get all the free drinks I want when I'm on a machine but I only drink coffee when I'm working. If one sip of booze touches my lips I'm not gonna work anymore. I'm headed to the bar where I can jaw jack with the other ten fools on the stools, make passes at any hot chicks that come along. ...and generally make a fool out of my drunk ass. But work and drink at the same time? That's totally out of the question for me.
For someone who clearly enjoys the booze, I admire the way you can stay away from it while you're on a play! If I ever had designs of going full-time AP, this would be one reason to think twice. I enjoy partying it up, and it's tough to NOT do so while in a casino with free drinks.
