Stats
Stats
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May 18th, 2014 at 5:54:40 AM permalink
I have read alot of soxfans posts on this site and others and he is so far a winning player yet to succumb to the long run. I read somewhere that for him to become a losing player he would need to lose his initial bankroll of a few thousand units plus 10s of thousands of units profit from over the years.
I believe his system is known as 'sure win' which he has modified and is available to read on other sites.

Has anyone run tests on this strategy to find the avg amount of hands that will be played before the 'long run' strikes and major losses occur?
GWAE
GWAE
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May 18th, 2014 at 6:10:44 AM permalink
here is a thread about this that went on way to long

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/questions-and-answers/gambling/18140-what-is-the-long-run/
Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed. I AM NOT PART OF GWAE RADIO SHOW
GWAE
GWAE
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May 18th, 2014 at 6:13:59 AM permalink
oh and you can not start a thread about soxfan without saying hey hey
Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed. I AM NOT PART OF GWAE RADIO SHOW
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
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May 18th, 2014 at 6:17:21 AM permalink
my thoughts

*self reported success does not interest me.

*I am confident myself *no* betting system is worth a damn

*evidence to the contrary would *not* be someone who is beating the odds

*evidence to the contrary would *certainly not* be someone who is self-reporting same
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
AxiomOfChoice
AxiomOfChoice
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May 18th, 2014 at 9:07:34 AM permalink
Quote: Stats

I have read alot of soxfans posts on this site and others and he is so far a winning player yet to succumb to the long run. I read somewhere that for him to become a losing player he would need to lose his initial bankroll of a few thousand units plus 10s of thousands of units profit from over the years.
I believe his system is known as 'sure win' which he has modified and is available to read on other sites.

Has anyone run tests on this strategy to find the avg amount of hands that will be played before the 'long run' strikes and major losses occur?



Yeah that's a good point. Anyone who claims to be a winning player clearly is. Everyone tells the truth on the internet.
soxfan
soxfan
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May 18th, 2014 at 9:15:22 PM permalink
I don't use the surewin style, and I've just been very lucky in the shorts term, hey hey.
" Life is a well of joy; but where the rabble drinks too, all wells are poisoned!" Nietzsche
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
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May 18th, 2014 at 11:00:11 PM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

my thoughts

*self reported success does not interest me.

*I am confident myself *no* betting system is worth a damn

*evidence to the contrary would *not* be someone who is beating the odds

*evidence to the contrary would *certainly not* be someone who is self-reporting same

MY thoughts exactly (I think) I just love when people come and tell us how much they won on their system (system is a dirty word) Like I'm just going to believe them. I love the, I saw 20 bankers last night. SURE YOU DID. I think, I would be willing to give a small bounty for anyone that can prove they were playing during a 20 event run on a 50/50 type bet. IE: 20 players, bankers,20 blacks, 20 reds, evens odds, etc

My thought are NOT directed at Soxfa>N< edit wrong key again how does this keep happening.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
Wizardofvegasux
Wizardofvegasux
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May 18th, 2014 at 11:50:33 PM permalink
Quote: Stats

I have read alot of soxfans posts on this site and others and he is so far a winning player yet to succumb to the long run. I read somewhere that for him to become a losing player he would need to lose his initial bankroll of a few thousand units plus 10s of thousands of units profit from over the years.
I believe his system is known as 'sure win' which he has modified and is available to read on other sites.

Has anyone run tests on this strategy to find the avg amount of hands that will be played before the 'long run' strikes and major losses occur?



Why the hell did my account get restricted??
I didnt break any rules!
Older members get away with murder and I get restricted for asking a simple question!
1BB
1BB
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May 19th, 2014 at 12:50:03 AM permalink
Quote: Wizardofvegasux

Why the hell did my account get restricted??
I didnt break any rules!
Older members get away with murder and I get restricted for asking a simple question!



Are saying that you are Stats? If so, it looks like a mistake and I hope you'll be forgiven for starting the second account. Others have been. If you are not Stats or I missed something then disregard.
Many people, especially ignorant people, want to punish you for speaking the truth. - Mahatma Ghandi
tringlomane
tringlomane
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May 19th, 2014 at 1:25:15 AM permalink
Quote: 1BB

Are saying that you are Stats? If so, it looks like a mistake and I hope you'll be forgiven for starting the second account. Others have been. If you are not Stats or I missed something then disregard.



Yeah I am interested on how this turns out. I didn't understand the original suspension/block etc. It's not explained on the Suspension List either.
Ibeatyouraces
Ibeatyouraces
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May 19th, 2014 at 1:27:37 AM permalink
deleted
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
tringlomane
tringlomane
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May 19th, 2014 at 1:51:28 AM permalink
Quote: Ibeatyouraces

Apparently, multiple accounts.

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/info/rules/5288-suspension-list/#post71165



Yeah, I should have read that too. Oops. Why do people make multiple accounts if they don't typically cause problems? I just don't get it.
Ibeatyouraces
Ibeatyouraces
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May 19th, 2014 at 5:23:02 AM permalink
deleted
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
beachbumbabs
beachbumbabs
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May 19th, 2014 at 5:39:13 AM permalink
Wizardofvegasux has been banned, nuclear option, for multiple accounts (4).
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
Ibeatyouraces
Ibeatyouraces
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May 19th, 2014 at 5:40:12 AM permalink
deleted
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
Notquiteright
Notquiteright
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May 19th, 2014 at 6:24:13 AM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs

Wizardofvegasux has been banned, nuclear option, for multiple accounts (4).



This is not correct, I know walkinshaw30t and Bmayo319 in the real world and have likely logged in from the same wifi on occassions as I live in the same resort apartments.
Is this against the rules?
I am not fussed about my nuking as my interest in gambling is minute, though the other 2 will be pissed off about their restrictions.
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
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May 19th, 2014 at 6:29:56 AM permalink
Quote: Notquiteright

This is not correct, I know walkinshaw30t and Bmayo319 in the real world and have likely logged in from the same wifi on occassions as I live in the same resort apartments.
Is this against the rules?
I am not fussed about my nuking as my interest in gambling is minute, though the other 2 will be pissed off about their restrictions.

Wizardofvegasux Should be enough for a ban.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
beachbumbabs
beachbumbabs
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May 19th, 2014 at 7:59:06 AM permalink
Quote: Notquiteright

This is not correct, I know walkinshaw30t and Bmayo319 in the real world and have likely logged in from the same wifi on occassions as I live in the same resort apartments.
Is this against the rules?
I am not fussed about my nuking as my interest in gambling is minute, though the other 2 will be pissed off about their restrictions.



Notquite,

The ban for WoVux followed on the ban (not by me) of 3 other duplicate accounts, where he made it clear he was Stats reincarnated to complain. I am not sure what led to the original 3 accounts nuking, but will inquire.

However, if this is your "first" post today, how would you have previously logged in from the same wifi on occasion if you're not a duplicated account? Let's fix this in all directions as necessary.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
kewlj
kewlj
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May 19th, 2014 at 8:45:04 AM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs

Notquite,

The ban for WoVux followed on the ban (not by me) of 3 other duplicate accounts, where he made it clear he was Stats reincarnated to complain. I am not sure what led to the original 3 accounts nuking, but will inquire.

However, if this is your "first" post today, how would you have previously logged in from the same wifi on occasion if you're not a duplicated account? Let's fix this in all directions as necessary.



This is all funny stuff to me (probably not so much to the mods). A guy's first post, continuing the discussion of someone who just moments before was nuked. Precious! :)

Just out of curiosity, what if there were two legit members living in the same household? I live with two people, who are both involved in have have an interest in gambling. What if one of them had an interest and wanted to participate? Wouldn't my account and his look to the mods like multiple accounts? Both my house mates don't have an interest in participating on message boards (although one does read some times, but he is really just being nosey) so this isn't an actual event, just hypothetical.
teliot
teliot
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May 19th, 2014 at 9:13:34 AM permalink
I ran some Monte-Carlo simulations to help address this question, since words don't seem to help.

The following picture shows 20 simulated baccarat players who play Player each hand over the course of 10,000 hands. The red lines correspond to the mean result, and +2, +1, -1, -2 standard deviations. You can observe N_0 as the point at which the +1 SD line crosses the X-axis. We see that even after 10k hands, there are 3 players who are still ahead.

Climate Casino: https://climatecasino.net/climate-casino/
AxiomOfChoice
AxiomOfChoice
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May 19th, 2014 at 10:01:29 AM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs

Notquite,

The ban for WoVux followed on the ban (not by me) of 3 other duplicate accounts, where he made it clear he was Stats reincarnated to complain. I am not sure what led to the original 3 accounts nuking, but will inquire.

However, if this is your "first" post today, how would you have previously logged in from the same wifi on occasion if you're not a duplicated account? Let's fix this in all directions as necessary.



I think NotquiteRight is Stats (again).

Stats/WoVSux/NotQuiteRight is saying that the other two accounts are people who live in the same apartment complex as he does.

I'm not sure if he is telling the truth or not, but I know that, for example, my building has a service called WebPass which only services apartment buildings. They install it in the building, and it is a shared line for all the units in the building that sign up for it, so they would all have the same external IP. So, it's definitely possible.

Honestly, IP matching is not a great way to detect duplicate accounts. IP addresses are not unique.
beachbumbabs
beachbumbabs
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May 19th, 2014 at 10:08:50 AM permalink
Quote: AxiomOfChoice

I think NotquiteRight is Stats (again).

Stats/WoVSux/NotQuiteRight is saying that the other two accounts are people who live in the same apartment complex as he does.

I'm not sure if he is telling the truth or not, but I know that, for example, my building has a service called WebPass which only services apartment buildings. They install it in the building, and it is a shared line for all the units in the building that sign up for it, so they would all have the same external IP. So, it's definitely possible.

Honestly, IP matching is not a great way to detect duplicate accounts. IP addresses are not unique.



I agree, AoC; I'm not sure we've gotten to the bottom of this yet, but I came in on the tail end of this, so want to defer to the other mods on the initial ban.

I think NQR is Stats again, too, but have no verification beyond what he's said so far, so I didn't ban him when I saw this, pending untangling what's happening with all of it.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
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