cwwbjr
cwwbjr
Joined: May 9, 2014
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May 9th, 2014 at 4:46:38 AM permalink
Hi Michael,
Your math skills are amazing . I'm not good at math.
I've played blackjack 67 times in the last 2 years at $5, $10, and $25 tables averaging 5 hours per trip broken into 2 to 3 sessions / trip at 2 deck, 6 deck, and CSM's at 3/2 and 6/5 tables. I follow your recommended basic strategy for H,S, Sp, DD with the exception I don't ever hit 16 nor split 88 against dealer A or 10.
I've made a profit of $1850 during this time and made $10,000 profit in the previous 10 years.
I keep records of all my wins and losses.
Life is short.
What is considered the "the Long run" when commenting that blackjack cannot be beaten in the " long run"?
Best Regards!
GWAE
GWAE
Joined: Sep 20, 2013
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May 9th, 2014 at 4:59:01 AM permalink
I bet Bob is foaming at the mouth wanting to jump in on this thread.

that is only 335 hours of playing. There are people on this board who have done that amount of play in 2014 alone.
Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed. I AM NOT PART OF GWAE RADIO SHOW
mickeycrimm
mickeycrimm
Joined: Jul 13, 2013
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May 9th, 2014 at 5:21:11 AM permalink
Quote: GWAE

I bet Bob is foaming at the mouth wanting to jump in on this thread.

that is only 335 hours of playing. There are people on this board who have done that amount of play in 2014 alone.



The long run is a thin edge play that you have to grind on forever to suck a low wage out of. To hell with that.
"Quit trying your luck and start trying your skill." Mickey Crimm
treetopbuddy
treetopbuddy
Joined: Jan 12, 2013
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May 9th, 2014 at 5:50:57 AM permalink
Apparently everybody loses in the long run. So, if your losing, you are in the long run. If you are winning, you are in the short run.
Each day is better than the next
GWAE
GWAE
Joined: Sep 20, 2013
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May 9th, 2014 at 5:58:56 AM permalink
Quote: treetopbuddy

Apparently everybody loses in the long run. So, if your losing, you are in the long run. If you are winning, you are in the short run.



lmao, thanks for making me laugh at work. Now people know that I am not working.
Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed. I AM NOT PART OF GWAE RADIO SHOW
mickeycrimm
mickeycrimm
Joined: Jul 13, 2013
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May 9th, 2014 at 6:57:39 AM permalink
Quote: treetopbuddy

Apparently everybody loses in the long run. So, if your losing, you are in the long run. If you are winning, you are in the short run.



I agree. Anyone who gambles against me loses in the long run. But every once in a while they experiece some short term luck.
"Quit trying your luck and start trying your skill." Mickey Crimm
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
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May 9th, 2014 at 7:22:32 AM permalink
Quote: cwwbjr

What is considered the "the Long run" when commenting that blackjack cannot be beaten in the " long run"?



This is one of the most frequent questions I get. You truly arrive at the long run after an infinite number of hands. However, for practical purposes, you can get very close with a big finite number. "How big is big?" you might ask. There is no simple answer. It is like asking how many grains of sand do you need to form a pile of sand. It can be said that the more you play the closer to the "long run" you will get, but you will never fully arrive there. As with many things in life, there is not an absolute answer. It is a matter of the shade of the grey.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
teliot
teliot
Joined: Oct 19, 2009
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May 9th, 2014 at 7:44:00 AM permalink
A good measure of "the long run" is called N_0. It gives the number of hands for the house to have an 84.1% chance (1 SD) of being ahead of you. This value is (SD/EV)^2, so for the typical blackjack player (playing with a h/a of about 1%), a reasonable value for the SD is about 1.15, so this makes N_0 = (1.15/.01)^2 = 13225 hands.

In general the "long run" is measured as a probability of the casino being ahead of you after a given number of hands. Obviously, as the number of hands goes to infinity, this probability goes to 1. But that's meaningless information. Hence, N_0.
www.advancedadvantageplay.com
mustangsally
mustangsally
Joined: Mar 29, 2011
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May 9th, 2014 at 8:03:08 AM permalink
Quote: teliot

(SD/EV)^2

this is easily extended to include the z-score
(Z*SD/EV)^2
This concept in math = Standard Score
"The number of standard deviations from the mean is also called the "Standard Score", "sigma" or "z-score"."
http://www.mathsisfun.com/data/standard-normal-distribution.html

your example is Z=1 (or could be -1)
I think my table is correct for a few z-scores and probabilities
-1	0.841344746
-2 0.977249868
-3 0.998650102
-4 0.999968329
-5 0.999999713

(one needs to do the math for the number of trials)
-1	13,225.0
-2 52,900.0
-3 119,025.0
-4 211,600.0
-5 330,625.0

and with a .005 edge (instead of the example of .01) I show
-1	52,900.0
-2 211,600.0
-3 476,100.0
-4 846,400.0
-5 1,322,500.0


looks like it keeps taking more trials to have a larger confidence of being further into the long run
Sally
I Heart Vi Hart
teliot
teliot
Joined: Oct 19, 2009
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May 9th, 2014 at 8:29:22 AM permalink
Quote: mustangsally

this is easily extended to include the z-score (Z*SD/EV)^2

Z*(SD/EV)^2 (typo? - I think this is what you meant).

Thanks for filling in the gaps in my post 8-) The values of N_0 are extraordinary for the basic strategy blackjack player. That's why players can think they have the edge for a long time. These values are similar to baccarat rolling chip programs, which is why baccarat players are similarly deceived. But by far, the largest values of N_0 are for pass line craps players taking full odds. Hence endless pointless arguments about DI.
www.advancedadvantageplay.com

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