onenickelmiracle
onenickelmiracle
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April 25th, 2014 at 10:22:01 PM permalink
Do people subconsciously choose certain numbers and number ranges over others? If you wanted to guess a number between 500-1000, is there anything known so you can avoid getting stuck in a clump of other guesses. I'm thinking when they're trying to guess unknown facts, they're less likely to use their lucky numbers but accidentally choose certain numbers other people do as well.
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rxwine
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April 25th, 2014 at 10:31:55 PM permalink
I don't know. but it reminds me of stuff I've read for taking tests. Test makers had more b + d answers than a,c and e was the particular advice. Don't know what kind of research was done at the time, or how accurate it was, or if it was accurate at all.
There's no secret. Just know what you're talking about before you open your mouth.
Neutrino
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April 25th, 2014 at 10:33:26 PM permalink
Quote: onenickelmiracle

Do people subconsciously choose certain numbers and number ranges over others? If you wanted to guess a number between 500-1000, is there anything known so you can avoid getting stuck in a clump of other guesses. I'm thinking when they're trying to guess unknown facts, they're less likely to use their lucky numbers but accidentally choose certain numbers other people do as well.



Absolutely. if you ask someone to pick between 1-10, 7 gets picked nearly half the time.

In the english speaking culture anyway... I expect this to be different in other cultures
MangoJ
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April 26th, 2014 at 2:07:29 AM permalink
Quote: Neutrino

if you ask someone to pick between 1-10, 7 gets picked nearly half the time.



Ask someone to pick a number between 11 and 4 (in that order), you get 7 almost every time. Must be some subconscious process, remembering 11 minus 4 is 7, and having performed that calculation a billions of times in the past.
FinsRule
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April 26th, 2014 at 4:31:53 AM permalink
Quote: Neutrino

Absolutely. if you ask someone to pick between 1-10, 7 gets picked nearly half the time.

In the english speaking culture anyway... I expect this to be different in other cultures



Not correct.
FinsRule
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April 26th, 2014 at 4:36:25 AM permalink
I'd think you'd want to gravitate toward either end. I know if you were picking the total score of a sporting contest like the Superbowl, people gravitate toward an average score. You differentiate yourself by picking like 20 or 75.

Maybe it'd be the same for what you are suggesting? If you were to ask 10000 people to name a number between 500--1000, are any picking 500? Might be your best chance of winning...
Neutrino
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April 26th, 2014 at 9:27:46 AM permalink
Quote: FinsRule

Not correct.



your name suggests you're from finland. You're probably unaware of the psychological role of "7" in the american culture.
Vlad3Tetes
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April 26th, 2014 at 9:36:01 AM permalink
When I was a kid, I had a magic set. One of the "pieces" was a card. On this card in small letters it said "Pick a number". In bigger font it had "1 2 3 4".
You would show it to people then say "You're number is 3" most of the time it was right. I suppose something with the visual choice?
teddys
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April 26th, 2014 at 9:59:15 AM permalink
Quote: Neutrino

your name suggests you're from finland. You're probably unaware of the psychological role of "7" in the american culture.

LOL.
"Dice, verily, are armed with goads and driving-hooks, deceiving and tormenting, causing grievous woe." -Rig Veda 10.34.4
michael99000
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April 26th, 2014 at 10:39:20 AM permalink
Quote: Neutrino

your name suggests you're from finland..


This easily falls into my top 3 unintentionally funny WOV posts ever.
geoff
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April 26th, 2014 at 10:48:06 AM permalink
Quote: Neutrino

your name suggests you're from finland. You're probably unaware of the psychological role of "7" in the american culture.



I'm from America and I'm unaware of the psychological role of "7" in American culture.
Paigowdan
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April 26th, 2014 at 10:56:08 AM permalink
It's actually prominent.

Lucky 7, come out 7, 7 you win.

In counter balance 6 is not so lucky; mark of the beast.
Beware of all enterprises that require new clothes - Henry David Thoreau. Like Dealers' uniforms - Dan.
AxelWolf
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April 26th, 2014 at 11:00:43 AM permalink
69 is the most common number in my experience.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
MidwestAP
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April 26th, 2014 at 11:02:09 AM permalink
lucky wolf!
kubikulann
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April 27th, 2014 at 11:59:42 AM permalink
Quote: onenickelmiracle

Do people subconsciously choose certain numbers and number ranges over others? If you wanted to guess a number between 500-1000, is there anything known so you can avoid getting stuck in a clump of other guesses. I'm thinking when they're trying to guess unknown facts, they're less likely to use their lucky numbers but accidentally choose certain numbers other people do as well.

Definitely. That's how I managed to increase my edge at national lotto, simply analysing the patterns of other players' choices - since you have to share if there are more than one winner.

It is well-known that the uninformed human brain is totally lame at grasping elementary probability. Even after training, you still opt for very wrong answers if pressed to respond without computing time.
Those who "guess" are usually picking patterns that LOOK random. With a sufficient number of guessers, those patterns will be extremely significantly overchosen.

7 has three predicaments:
  1. it is relatively central in the usual ranges where you are asked to pick a number.
  2. it is more "random looking" because it is a low prime for which we don't have an easy factoring test (contrary to 2 & 5, 3, 11).
  3. it is prevalent in western culture (maybe oriental too? in China it's 8) as a good luck portent. The reason is unclear. Consider that in early Christianity, as the sum of 3 (divine number) and 4 (earth number) it is supposed to represent the universal, as is 12, their product.
Reperiet qui quaesiverit
onenickelmiracle
onenickelmiracle
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April 27th, 2014 at 3:28:47 PM permalink
Say you ask people to continuously pick numbers from 1-10, we already know their answers cannot be random. Then just to determine their most likely answers in a string. It makes me laugh a little thinking how the process of verbally naming the numbers ultimately may be a different process and outcome than having them verbally announce them. I see an analogy to an atom where you can judge velocity or location, but not both.
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vegas
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April 29th, 2014 at 8:09:53 PM permalink
Quote: FinsRule

I'd think you'd want to gravitate toward either end. I know if you were picking the total score of a sporting contest like the Superbowl, people gravitate toward an average score. You differentiate yourself by picking like 20 or 75.

Maybe it'd be the same for what you are suggesting? If you were to ask 10000 people to name a number between 500--1000, are any picking 500? Might be your best chance of winning...




500 doesn't fall between 500-1000....
50-50-90 Rule: Anytime you have a 50-50 chance of getting something right, there is a 90% probability you'll get it wrong
camapl
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April 29th, 2014 at 9:33:24 PM permalink
Pick a number between 500 and 1000, inclusive.
Expectation is the root of all heartache.
FinsRule
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April 29th, 2014 at 10:18:05 PM permalink
Quote: vegas

500 doesn't fall between 500-1000....



501

I heart Finland
rudeboyoi
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April 29th, 2014 at 10:25:02 PM permalink
If someone says pick a number from 1 to 10, are 1 and 10 hardly ever picked?
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