My fellow APs help me analyze this situation.

Mission I'm still calculating and researching and reading your analysis. So, about video poker, does the bad playing skill of most people factor into reducing the video poker payout? I'm assuming the figures for overall return are based on ACTUAL returns and not theoretical (aka assuming perfect play) returns. Earlier in the same day I saw a guy repeatedly hold 3 Flush over low pair in jacks or better and I thought to myself "this guy should go play slots instead."

Mickey your answer is definitely my favorite here since you're the only one here that agrees with my calculations. Right now I intuitively do believe my calculations are correct although the percent return assumption of 90% is probably off. And what you said about me being a ploppie due to money and time restraints makes a lot of sense! I'll definitely keep in mind those variables from now on.

Quote: sodawater

The first post in this thread is 1500 words of mostly nonsense.

How is it nonsense?

Quote: Neutrino

Mission I'm still calculating and researching and reading your analysis. So, about video poker, does the bad playing skill of most people factor into reducing the video poker payout? I'm assuming the figures for overall return are based on ACTUAL returns and not theoretical (aka assuming perfect play) returns. Earlier in the same day I saw a guy repeatedly hold 3 Flush over low pair in jacks or better and I thought to myself "this guy should go play slots instead."

The first thing that I want to say is that my, 'analysis,' of the must-hits is also assumption based, and the Wizard's analysis would suggest that they be played lower than what I suggest. Thus, my 'analysis,' is not an analysis at all, but rather a preference. If the Wizard and I are discussing the same subject matter, and the Wizard says x, and I say ANYTHING THAT IS NOT EXACTLY X you can bet your bottom dollar that I am wrong.

Except, I do want to make it clear that I have always maintained that these are my preferences, stated my preferences differ from the Wizard's analysis right off the bat, and I do not disagree with Wizard's analysis, my, 'Method,' I will term it, is simply much more Conservative.

Okay, Video Poker, yes, some people suck and that reduces the overall return of a given machine. I was just giving an example of the power with which Video Poker swings slot results. In one of his Videos, Wizard has suggested that poor Video Poker play from an individual would reduce a 98-99% game to something like 95%, which is still MUCH better than most slots. Some people also play Optimal VP, some play more-or-less correct VP, some play pretty good VP...you get the point.

Yes, the figures are based on actual returns, except again, I'm not sure how Free Play is considered in the jurisdiction we are discussing because I don't know what the jurisdiction is. If I did, I'd attempt to look it up, there's occasionally a Gaming Law concerning such matters.

Three to a Royal or just a Flush? Also, three consecutive to the SF is still usually (if not always) wrong, but is still often worth over 75% of the EV of the Low Pair, and can be worth 89.29% if it is 9-10-J, suited. Any three-Royal is obviously better than a low pair.

He probably still has it better than with most slots.

Random 3 unrelated flush

Yeah, I saw something similar when I was in Vegas. Funny thing was, the person was on a JoB Progressive and was making some borderline decisions correctly. Just as I was about to be impressed, the person held a suited 3-5-8...or something like that...over a high card.

Excuse me?

Quote: jeffwarren75

Excuse me?

People probably assume you're the same guy Bob Dancer wrote an article about. Same name almost, Jeffrey Warren Toll I think. Dancer said he had a deal for him to redeem his free play and alleged he was never paid.

Quote: onenickelmiracle

People probably assume you're the same guy Bob Dancer wrote an article about. Same name almost, Jeffrey Warren Toll I think. Dancer said he had a deal for him to redeem his free play and alleged he was never paid.

OUCH! This is something I would like to know more about, I heard the story. Would you like to elaborate Jeff?

You are trying to win $50? Some 20 years you aimed at $3000 with old reels. In another thread, people has been detained over $300 win at BJ, they don't let you shoot, because the dice is too high, while you have $5 on a line. If Putin said "Americans I free you from slavery", this country will seize to exist overnight.

Quote: Neutrino

Mission I'm still calculating and researching and reading your analysis. So, about video poker, does the bad playing skill of most people factor into reducing the video poker payout? I'm assuming the figures for overall return are based on ACTUAL returns and not theoretical (aka assuming perfect play) returns. Earlier in the same day I saw a guy repeatedly hold 3 Flush over low pair in jacks or better and I thought to myself "this guy should go play slots instead."

Mickey your answer is definitely my favorite here since you're the only one here that agrees with my calculations. Right now I intuitively do believe my calculations are correct although the percent return assumption of 90% is probably off. And what you said about me being a ploppie due to money and time restraints makes a lot of sense! I'll definitely keep in mind those variables from now on.



How is it nonsense?

One of the reasons my general rule is 110% on plays like this is if my payback estimate is off by a few points I still have my ass covered.

Quote: Dicenor33

You are trying to win $50? Some 20 years you aimed at $3000 with old reels. In another thread, people has been detained over $300 win at BJ, they don't let you shoot, because the dice is too high, while you have $5 on a line. If Putin said "Americans I free you from slavery", this country will seize to exist overnight.

????

Quote: onenickelmiracle

People probably assume you're the same guy Bob Dancer wrote an article about. Same name almost, Jeffrey Warren Toll I think. Dancer said he had a deal for him to redeem his free play and alleged he was never paid.

The guy posted a jackpot picture of him playing 5 aces poker triple play $10. the same game mentioned in the article.

Is this the same guy who was accused of pullung a fast one on BD? If so I would like to hear his side of the story. I also would like to know who to avoid or not to avoid.

I'm going to go to the casino again tomorrow and check which type of machine it was.

I have a feeling it's not the one listed on wiz's website even though the graphics look similar.

Quote: Neutrino

I'm going to go to the casino again tomorrow and check which type of machine it was.

I have a feeling it's not the one listed on wiz's website even though the graphics look similar.

It looked like a zeus game and they're quite volatile as you saw.

I'm talking about whether it's WMS (the wiz's data is based on WMS) and whether it's even "mystery bonus" since that seems to be a trademark and if it's missing it's not even that then.

Hopefully I can find enough information of it by looking... I have a feeling I can't just ask the casino "hey give me the model of your slot machine"