My fellow APs help me analyze this situation.
As an AP, I believe one of the most dangerous things is thinking you're making a +EV play when you're making a -EV play. I have been extremely cautious of this in the past and always try to analyze and stay realistic. I try not to let things like ego or pride get in the way of realistic EV assessment.
I have decided that my play was +EV and that decisions are based on a few assumptions. Due to the end result (-$600) I feel like there is a good chance at least one of those assumptions are wrong.
The story began when I walked out of the poker room after a small profit. I saw a slot machine (5 lines x 4 reels, 40 pay lines total, min bet/line 1c) that has a minor progressive of ~$35 and major progressive of ~$465. Major progressive must pay by $500 and minor by $50 Looks like this. I've only been in the casino for a few months but I knew $35/$465 was rare and it's once in a long time chance that I would see one like that. Now I just have to determine if it's profitable.
I put in $10 to test the rate that the progressive goes up. Both the major and minor goes up $0.01 for every $2 wagered. This means (if possible) to get the major progressive to $500, $35*200=$7000 has to be wagered.
According to this site, the casino I'm going to has a approx 90% return. Assume, the jackpot is random within the interval [$465,$500], $3500 has to be wagered to earn a $482.5 jackpot. Assume a 90% return, $350 will be lost to earn a $482.5 jackpot. Seems like a good deal. And that's not even counting the minor jackpot.
Welllllll, things didn't turn out good at all. I put in $600 and wagered $2400 (I know because the jackpots went up by $12 each) before they were all gone. This is a 75% return!! Significantly off from the 90%. I had to leave right after I hit the minor jackpot at $47 and lost it (my bus was here). I had to leave, reluctantly leaving a $25/$477 machine. Even if I didn't have to leave, I'd still wonder if i should continue due to a good chance of this actually being a -EV bet.
As I was playing and losing my $600 I looked around and see other people playing the exact same game with shit progressives like $35/$300. I guess to a small extent it did reassure me that I might be doing the right thing. But then again, they are suckers and I'm an AP. My standards are measured with EV, so just because I'm doing better than someone else doesn't mean it's +EV.
If all my assumptions and calculations were correct, I should have lost on average $350 and wagered an average of $3500 and received a $482.5 major progressive and a $42.5 minor progressive, For a profit of $225.
Perhaps indeed I made a +EV play but was screwed by variance. But I get a feeling that something is probably wrong here, so I will now list out my assumptions, and my concerns/comments about them.
#1 I made the right calculations (If my other assumptions are correct).
My calculations are right up there ^ . If there's anything wrong definitely let me know. Seems fine though, and easy and straightforward.
#2 The machine is fair
I highly doubt this is the issue. But nonetheless this is an assumption.
#3 The progressive is randomly determined in the interval [$250,500] and will pay off once a bet makes it go over the pre-determined number.
This is perhaps one of the most important assumptions I've made. And if it is wrong, it would be very costly.
There are 3 possibilities I can think of for a progressive like this to work:
1: The progressive is randomly selected in the uniform interval [$250,500] and will pay off once a bet makes it go over the pre-determined number.
2: The progressive happens with a fixed chance on each individual spin and will only pay off if it hits. If it's at $500 and has not been paid off yet, then it would pay off.
3: The progressive will pay off once it reaches a certain point in [$250,500] but it is NOT randomly selected. It may be weighed or even mandated towards certain values.
My calculations are based on assuming 1.
Now let me do emphasize 1 and 2 has huge differences in terms of EV. If you have the data for the slot machine and look at the stat distributions, a good chunk of payoffs for possibility 2 will be at exactly $500 whereas almost none of the payoffs for 1 will be at $500.
If it is indeed 2, then most likely game game is -EV due to progressives having a very small chance to hit and only will be forced to payout at $500. This would make it almost mandatory for you to wager $7000 and lose $700 for that $500+$50 progressive.
And I do have suspicions for 3 because of the minor jackpot hitting at $47 in the interval [$35-50], which is quite unlikely, coupled with the major jackpot not hitting from [$465-477] of [$465-500]. The chance of both happening is less than 15%, assuming 1.
#4 The payout is 90%
In the end, I think what screwed me over the most is my payout being 75%. And what bothered me even more is I played minimum bet (40 x 1c) to reduce variance. What bothered me the most is that I seemed to have hit everything. I have hit the "bonus free spin feature" at least 5 times. And when I hit big I get like 50-100x bet. Nonetheless, even when I win big it wasn't enough to cover or get anywhere close to covering the previous losses. Think video poker, If after a session you're at 97% return and you feel ripped off, ask yourself if you had any royal flushes. If not, missing that big payout accounts for the 2% you're missing. Well, here in my case I've hit just about everything and still only at 75%, that's what the scary thing is.
So what's going on? Hmm, maybe the site I got the info from lied? I highly doubt it (it seems reputable), and it's consistent with the general consensus "Slots are between 90% to 95% payout"
Maybe video poker is having a significant impact on the payout? The 90% is for all electronic machines. This includes video poker, keno etc. I acknowledge video poker may have dragged the average up, but I doubt it's any significant. Reason #1 is that the pay tables here are shit and therefore are very unattractive to APs. As a result most people who play are suckers and probably have less than 90% return because of bad play. Secondly, keno, having very bad return should balance out any higher return from video poker.
Maybe I should count the progressive pay into the payout? I assumed a loss of 10% to gain the $482.5 progressive but I did not count the progressive itself. If I count it, it will definitely drop the payout. By how much? It should be calculable based on the actual progressive method used in #3
Method 1 from #3: Wager $125*200=25,000 for a $375 progressive, wager $12.5*200=2500 for a $37.5 progressive, wager $25000 for total of $750 of progressives reduces payout by 3% if the progressive is not counted as part of the payout.
Method 2 from #3: Depends on the frequency set for hitting the progressive. In a standard scenario (progressive almost never hits itself, must be force paid at $500/50), Wager $250*200=50000 for a $500 progressive, Wager $25*200=5000 for a $50 progressive, Wager $50000 for a total of $1000 of progressives reduces payout by 2%
Method 3 from #3: Depends on where the set point is biased to but on average should be the same as method 1. Reduces payout by 3%.
So regardless of the progressive method at worse I should be looking at a 87% return but instead I'm looking at a 75% return.
Alright fellow APs and mathematicians. I've said everything I know about the situation. Ended up, with a $600 loss, even hitting the $482.5 progressive would not be enough to cover the loss. Would someone shed me the light? At this point, I'd be happy if I knew I was making +EV play but just got unlucky, and I'd also be happy if I knew what I did wrong so that I learn a lesson (But seriously $600 is too much to pay for a lesson).
Wizard's (Correct) Method:
https://wizardofodds.com/games/slots/mystery-jackpot/
The Mission146 Method:
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/slots/11115-nice-little-jackpot-on-a-wongable-slot-from-wms/5/#post176877
Keep an eye out, however, for the ones where coin-in (rather than win) pushes the Progressive. Assumptions are easier to make about the return on those, and you also know EXACTLY how much coin-in it would take to Lock up the Jackpot.
And more details: I don't immediately see where your math is wrong under the 90% assumption, but the wiz's page above makes it clear you were not in clear +EV territory yet.
Also, and more concerning, I think its quite possible the mystery slot you were on was set to 75%, but others in the casino were set to 90+, and everything averages out for the house. In that case, you were nowhere near +EV.
Don't worry, it feels like a lot of money now, but in 5-10 years that will be a drop in the bucket.
Quote:There are 3 possibilities I can think of for a progressive like this to work:
1: The progressive is randomly in the interval [$250,500] and will pay off once a bet makes it go over the pre-determined number.
2: The progressive happens with a fixed chance on each individual spin and will only pay off if it hits. If it's at $500 and has not been paid off yet, then it would pay off.
3: The progressive will pay off once it reaches a certain point in [$250,500] but it is NOT randomly selected. It may be weighed or even mandated towards certain values.
My opinion is that if the small meter is more than $5 away from the max it probably isn't worth considering at all. That is just a general assumption on the must hit machines and not anything specific to the game you were playing.
Quote: onenickelmiracleDepending on the casino and your history there, you could get a good portion back in future slot play, food, and rooms. I'd prefer a machine not so obvious to anyone who can read, but it wasn't so bad depending on the player's club mail in a couple months. Being able to see these pots through with time and money has a lot to do with these calculations too. If you peter out too early, you're defeating the original purpose. This is something for you personally to be concerned with, you have to be able to schmooze people to get the good machines quite often and there's lots of competion. I've rarely seen these $480 pots myself, if ever?, and never unattended.
How do I do that? I'd love to get some compensation for this devastating loss
By using a player's card and going back to collect the free play you are awarded in the mail. You could have even asked for another food comp that day, if time wasn't a factor for you, and many places would give it.Quote: NeutrinoHow do I do that? I'd love to get some compensation for this devastating loss
Quote: onenickelmiracleBy using a player's card and going back to collect the free play you are awarded in the mail. You could have even asked for another food comp that day, if time wasn't a factor for you, and many places would give it.
I did use a player's card. Got like ~450 rewards credits (This is CET) which is worth about... $2 lol
You can ask for food comps? Ask who?
I know as a fact the one i encountered is based on the amount bet. $0.01 increase per $2 wagered.
Quote: Neutrino
I put in $10 to test the rate that the progressive goes up. Both the major and minor goes up $0.01 for every $2 wagered. This means (if possible) to get the major progressive to $500, $35*200=$7000 has to be wagered.
Okay, this is the first thing that should tell you something: If you have to put in $7,000 coin in order to guarantee the Progressive, even assuming Base Pays (not counting the Progressive at all) of 90%...which would be extremely generous...it means you essentially are expected to lose up to $700 to lock up $500. If you couple this with the fact that your Variance is going to be friggin' nasty unless you are betting the minimum, or something close to it, you're really not in good shape here.
Quote:According to this site, the casino I'm going to has a approx 90% return. Assume, the jackpot is random within the interval [$465,$500], $3500 has to be wagered to earn a $482.5 jackpot. Assume a 90% return, $350 will be lost to earn a $482.5 jackpot. Seems like a good deal. And that's not even counting the minor jackpot.
The numbers reported by the ACG probably are going to include Video Poker and higher denomination slots (possibly), again, Base Pays of 90% ARE NOT what I would assume for the machine that you were on. Secondly, if the jackpot is triggered by some random mechanism, rather than being determined by the machine at the time the last jackpot was hit, hitting the jackpot randomly could theoretically become less likely the closer you get to the must-hit point. Again, you had the right idea, just too many assumptions.
Quote:Welllllll, things didn't turn out good at all. I put in $600 and wagered $2400 (I know because the jackpots went up by $12 each) before they were all gone. This is a 75% return!! Significantly off from the 90%. I had to leave right after I hit the minor jackpot at $47 and lost it (my bus was here). I had to leave, reluctantly leaving a $25/$477 machine. Even if I didn't have to leave, I'd still wonder if i should continue due to a good chance of this actually being a -EV bet.
Again, we've established that you may not have been in a positive situation to begin with, besides, how much were you betting per spin? If you assume x% is wrapped up in Free Games and other good hits (make x% whatever you want) then the higher you bet, the more you will tend to swing from the mean one way or the other.
Quote:As I was playing and losing my $600 I looked around and see other people playing the exact same game with shit progressives like $35/$300. I guess to a small extent it did reassure me that I might be doing the right thing. But then again, they are suckers and I'm an AP. My standards are measured with EV, so just because I'm doing better than someone else doesn't mean it's +EV.
If all my assumptions and calculations were correct, I should have lost on average $350 and wagered an average of $3500 and received a $482.5 major progressive and a $42.5 minor progressive, For a profit of $225.
Too many assumptions.
Quote:#1 I made the right calculations (If my other assumptions are correct).
Your assumptions were too aggressive, and included things you should not assume. I'd tend to assume an 80-88% return w/o the Progressives and nothing else, depending on the State.
Quote:#2 The machine is fair
Safe assumption, regardless of the ER, 75% actual return is not actually ridiculously low for a slot session, especially a short one with relatively high bets.
Quote:#3 The progressive is randomly determined in the interval [$250,500] and will pay off once a bet makes it go over the pre-determined number.
This is perhaps one of the most important assumptions I've made. And if it is wrong, it would be very costly.
I tend to believe that, but would not assume it. I just assume a base pay and figure how much coin-in until it must-hit. What $$$ amount am I trading for what $$$ amount. Further, it reduces hourly profit expectation, but if you don't want the nasty Variance, bet Max Lines but minimum credits.
Quote:1: The progressive is randomly in the interval [$250,500] and will pay off once a bet makes it go over the pre-determined number.
2: The progressive happens with a fixed chance on each individual spin and will only pay off if it hits. If it's at $500 and has not been paid off yet, then it would pay off.
3: The progressive will pay off once it reaches a certain point in [$250,500] but it is NOT randomly selected. It may be weighed or even mandated towards certain values.
It could be any of those things, which is a good reason to assume nothing.
Again, it could be that there is some kind of random trigger that becomes less likely to hit the higher the jackpot goes.
Quote:#4 The payout is 90%
In the end, I think what screwed me over the most is my payout being 75%. And what bothered me even more is I played minimum bet (40 x 1c) to reduce variance. What bothered me the most is that I seemed to have hit everything. I have hit the "bonus free spin feature" at least 5 times. And when I hit big I get like 50-100x bet. Nonetheless, even when I win big it wasn't enough to cover or get anywhere close to covering the previous losses. Think video poker, If after a session you're at 97% return and you feel ripped off, ask yourself if you had any royal flushes. If not, missing that big payout accounts for the 2% you're missing. Well, here in my case I've hit just about everything and still only at 75%, that's what the scary thing is.
Oh, you did play the minimum. Yikes! That's pretty ugly, but again, not completely unheard of. You probably just didn't hit free games or higher pays at the expected quip, or maybe you hit Free Games at the right quip, but they didn't meet the expected value. With such a wide range of possible results, it's not like Video Poker where you can say, "What would my return be for 1,000 hands assuming I don't hit the Royal?" You can come up with a general range, standard deviations, things of that nature. On this, you can't, we have no idea how Base Pays are distributed.
Quote:So what's going on? Hmm, maybe the site I got the info from lied? I highly doubt it (it seems reputable), and it's consistent with the general consensus "Slots are between 90% to 95% payout"
Again, the numbers usually include Video Poker.
Quote:Maybe video poker is having a significant impact on the payout? The 90% is for all electronic machines. This includes video poker, keno etc. I acknowledge video poker may have dragged the average up, but I doubt it's any significant. Reason #1 is that the pay tables here are shit and therefore are very unattractive to APs. As a result most people who play are suckers and probably have less than 90% return because of bad play. Secondly, keno, having very bad return should balance out any higher return from video poker.
There's no maybe about that, Video Poker definitely pulls it up, you can decide what is 'significant.' I don't know why Video Keno should have a very bad return, most Video Keno games return 88-92%. Video Keno, then, would stay pretty consistent with the average.
Rule of thumb: The fancier the slot (or licensed theme) the worse the Base Pays. This is not a licensed theme, but it is a fancier and flashier slot than many others.
Quote:Maybe I should count the progressive pay into the payout? I assumed a loss of 10% to gain the $482.5 progressive but I did not count the progressive itself. If I count it, it will definitely drop the payout. By how much? It should be calculable based on the actual progressive method used in #3
Simpler is better, your 90% assumption was simply too high.
Quote:So regardless of the progressive method at worse I should be looking at a 87% return but instead I'm looking at a 75% return.
Small sample size for the plethora of possibilities of slot play. On VP, if you hit a Royal in that sample size (6,000 hands), it's meaningless, and if you don't, it's meaningless.
Quote:Alright fellow APs and mathematicians. I've said everything I know about the situation. Ended up, with a $600 loss, even hitting the $482.5 progressive would not be enough to cover the loss. Would someone shed me the light? At this point, I'd be happy if I knew I was making +EV play but just got unlucky, and I'd also be happy if I knew what I did wrong so that I learn a lesson (But seriously $600 is too much to pay for a lesson).
You were making a -EV play, and still, probably got a little unlucky.
If you assume a 10% loss and the worst case scenario of the Progressive not hitting until $500:
The greatest expected Base loss you want is the $500 itself, so you would bet $5,000 and lose $500 but win $500, thus, 5000/2 = 2500 movements of the meter which is $5,000 total wager.
The assumption is simple and safe(r).
Could still run badly, could play a HUGE linked VP Progressive at 105% and not be the one to hit it. Could a lot of things. That's slots AP.
Here's a fun example
There was a machine with Bonus Games one time where the Bonus meant that you MUST hit one of the Progressives. I went with the safest assumption, I assumed that the Base Return (prior to the Bonus Game) was 75%, I assumed that ONLY the smallest Progressive would hit and then I watched other people play that game and got a Bonus Games rate of about 1:90 based on watching 4,950 spins.
Okay, straight dollar bet on this game, so you bet $90, you lose $22.50 of that, so any bottom Progressive greater than $22.50 is good, right?
I played it safer than that, I wouldn't go after it unless the bottom Progressive was greater than $30. I continued to keep stats about how often I was hitting the Free Games during this time...1:90 turned into 1:100, turned into 1:120, turned into 1:140....
By the time the 10,000th spin came around (including the 5,000 I watched free) I had only hit the stupid Bonus Games fifteen times!!! By doubling the sample size, 1 in 90 became 1 in 142.86!!!
So, even if my somewhat Conservative base assumption of 75% were to hold, I'd bet $142.86 and lose $35.72 playing for any Progressive that was better than $30...no wonder I kept losing!
Factoring in my non-base pays only, my assumption of 75% was reasonably close to my actual result of...and the machines are gone so this is just to the best of my memory...72.5 or 73.5%. The problem was that the Bonus Game simply didn't hit as often as I thought, nothing more or less, and that was based on actual data.
And, that's kind of how slot AP goes, but there are people much better at it than me. For me, you make assumptions and hope you're right, try to make conservative assumptions, and even the things that you, 'know' often end up being wrong.
But, you adjust. Only saw that stupid Progressive above $35.72 once, though, and still lost a $20 playing until I hit it...
Quote: DRich
My opinion is that if the small meter is more than $5 away from the max it probably isn't worth considering at all. That is just a general assumption on the must hit machines and not anything specific to the game you were playing.
I find that a bit too Conservative, but I don't know that I'd play anything more than $12 away, regardless of the Minor value...unless it was only $1.20 away.
Some WMS are by coin-in and some are by wins. I'm not sure off hand how much difference it makes but both methods have pros and cons situationally.
Quote: onenickelmiracleBy using a player's card and going back to collect the free play you are awarded in the mail. You could have even asked for another food comp that day, if time wasn't a factor for you, and many places would give it.
Shoot, at my (most) local casino, he automatically earned himself a free room with the first 1K coin-in, as well as a $.50 buffet if he did it on the right day. On other days, he'd have earned $0.01 comp dollars for every $1.00 coin-in being at the lowest tier.
Oh yeah, they like them some slots players. That's another cool thing about Slots/VK/VP AP, you can generate some seriously good offers...especially if a casino has no way of differentiating that you are playing VP rather than slots.
Quote: NeutrinoGuys I noticed a significant problem with the link to wizard's charts. https://wizardofodds.com/games/slots/mystery-jackpot/ is for WMS, I don't know what it stands for but he said it's based on the amount won not bet.
I know as a fact the one i encountered is based on the amount bet. $0.01 increase per $2 wagered.
My long post still addresses that.
Quote: NeutrinoThanks for the long post mission. So what's a base payout % that I should assume for a machine like this?
No problem!
You can't really assume anything, but I tend to assume 75-80%.
If I figure I am going to lose 20% of all base coin-in and it must hit by $500, then I am looking at $500/.2 = $2,500 coin in. Given the meter movement of $0.005 per dollar, the meter will move 2500 * .005 = $12.50 worth, or 1,250 times based on that coin-in. Thus, if I even want to assume a Base Pay of 80%, disregarding Progressives, then I want the Major meter at $500 - $12.50 = $487.50, at worst.
Quote: Neutrinodang, 75%-80%. I wish I could test it. A while ago I tested one of the slots on Bovada in freeplay mode over 12 hours of autoplay and found the return to be about 95%. And partially because of that I thought 90% was pretty conservative. I wish i could test the slot in question but there's no freeplay in the casino -.-
Testing Bovada isn't going to be at all relevant to a Brick & Mortar casino. Slot machines can be delivered to the customer much cheap via the Internet, less $$$ costs on the game itself, less overhead, no free coffee, you're flushing your own toilet (and not the casino's)...
Long story short, the fact that it hardly costs an on-line agency anything is reflected in the returns, often.
Except Bovada's Video Keno, it sucks worse than most Brick & Mortars and would be illegal in at least one State!
Let's Reverse Engineer the Problem
Okay, let's say you have a must-hit that starts at $200 and must hit by $500. One of your earlier assumptions was based on the mean between the current Progressive point and the must-hit point, so let's do that: $350.
That's going to be 15,000 meter movements at a cost of $30,000...and at that point, under the assumption, you are expected to hit the $350.
350/30000 = 1.17%
Okay, so you have a 1.17% Progressive return based on the average point at which it is to hit, under this assumption, the same holds true for the Minor, so (rounding back down, as appropriate) you are at 2.33% return just off of those.
If you assume 2.33% on a Base 90%, then you'd be talking about a penny machine returning 92.33%, not to mention the value (0.5% * 2 = 1%) of the meter increase itself, so now you're talking about 93.33%.
Two words: Doubt it.
The first thing is that I just don't think the return works this way because I would believe that more of the return percentage is going to be wrapped up in the must hits. Again, I lack the knowledge to say precisely what the mechanism is...but whatever it is...I don't think it involves the mean between the starting point and the must-hit point in anyway whatsoever. I think that (starting from the base point) one can be expected to hit it before it gets to the must-hit point, however, I think there is a different mechanism at play which means it is not expected to hit at that mean point, but is worth a greater percentage of the return.
Alternatively, it could be expected to hit before the mean point, more often than we are giving it credit for, and is worth a greater percentage of the return.
It's hard to say, but even if you were to tell me, "Yes, 80% is correct, and the overall return with Progressives and Meter Increase is 83.33%," I'd be less than shocked.
When we look at the overall published returns for games, even if Video Poker is played significantly less than other games, you have to look at how powerful Video Poker can be on the overall return percentage.
Just for the heck of it, let's say that $4,000 gets wagered on a slot machine that returns 86%, overall, and that $4,000 runs at exactly the Expected Return. At the same time, let's say for every 4k played on slots, 1k gets played on Video Poker, and the VP game returns 98% overall and we run at the expected return exactly.
Okay, so our overall return in this sample is (4000 * .86) + (1000 * .98) = $4,420
So, the return is 4,420/5000 = 88.4%, which is 2.84% better than our theoretical slot game based on Video Poker accounting for only 20% of the total action.
Point being, it doesn't take a whole lot of 96%+ action to make up for sub-90% action and end up with overall returns of ~90%. I'd also be curious as to how Free Play factors into all of this, is it still considered, "Coin-in," or do the results of it make up part of the return without there being actual coin-in?
Trying to figure out the extent of your disadvantage is a waste of time, when you have small amounts of money you should be looking for high edge low variance opportunities. Just know that you fired it off in a bad way, console yourself that your ev wasn't -600, and be glad that you didn't win to reinforce some bad habits.
Playing games where the odds aren't transparent with a small edge and a large risk relative to bankroll is a great way to get broke many times over. It's pretty much all these low level slot hustlers do.
Quote: sodawaterI am asking nicely, can you please stop starting threads?
Just block him and the threads. That's what I had to do with all of the craps DI crap.
Nicely would have been a private message. I can't see how you consider it nice to basically publicly say their threads are useless. Really I think it was a good thread anyways.Quote: sodawaterI am asking nicely, can you please stop starting threads?
Quote: onenickelmiracleNicely would have been a private message. I can't see how you consider it nice to basically publicly say their threads are useless. Really I think it was a good thread anyways.
Agreed on both points. I didn't feel like I should contribute because he was only asking for APs inputs...
Quote: onenickelmiracleNicely would have been a private message. I can't see how you consider it nice to basically publicly say their threads are useless. Really I think it was a good thread anyways.
Nicely because it's more than likely this guy is just trolling, anyway.
Quote: FinsRuleJust block him and the threads. That's what I had to do with all of the craps DI crap.
It should be possible to block threads started by a member automatically, like posts. But it's not.
Quote: tongniThis is probably one of his better threads. If they were all of this quality, I wouldn't complain. They are usually horrible though.
The first post in this thread is 1500 words of mostly nonsense.
The minor represents 1.5% (37.5/2500)
The major reoresents 1.5% (375/25000)
So your estimate of line pays should have been 87%.
Coming in at $35 the payback for the minor would be 42.5/1500 = 2.833%.
87 + 2.833 = 89.833%
On top of it you got stretched out on the minor.
Coming in at $465 the payback on the major would be 482.5/3500 = 13.7857%.
87 + 13.7857% = 100.7857%.
My general rule of thumb is 110% or I don't play. Another trap you got into was time constraint. In effect you turned yourself into a ploppie and left about a 108% play for someone else. Even if a short term play goes tits on you the cheapest way out is to continue until you achieve your objective.
Quote: sodawaterI am asking nicely, can you please stop starting threads?
I'm going to step in and defend this thread, as I really don't see what's wrong with it.
I'm not suggesting that the OP's assumptions were good, but there are theoretical situations (per WoO) where he would have been at an advantage given those Progressive points, it's just that I doubt any of them were actually the case. Either way, the thread serves to spark a conversation about these machines, and the loss, in my opinion, provides a good cautionary tale about making too many assumptions about these type of machines.
Superficially, when you look at a machine that's going to take $300 in Progressive increases to make the must-hit, and you've already got $265 of that taken care of for you, then 265/300 = 88.333-%, so it's almost understandable for a person to assume a possible advantage when he/she sees that almost 90% of the work has already been done for them.
That's part of the draw of these machines once they eclipse that halfway point, it looks like things are good for the player when they are not. Why anyone plays the Progressives before that point; (which some must do or they'd never get there) I can't even begin to hope to explain.
Quote: sodawaterThe first post in this thread is 1500 words of mostly nonsense.
Don't agree. I appreciate that the OP outlined his thought process and calcs and then asked for feedback so he can learn from his mistakes. Along the way I think many can learn from the feedback that was presented, including myself.
WOW! GET OUT OF MY HEAD...........I was going to say all of the the same things.Quote: tongniTitle is misleading, as you'd actually have to be playing with an advantage occasionally to be an AP. That said, if 600 is a big loss for you you really shouldn't be playing a progressive slot like this, and it's really a disaster to play without the time or money to see it through. I doubt you will get back more than a small fraction in free play.
Trying to figure out the extent of your disadvantage is a waste of time, when you have small amounts of money you should be looking for high edge low variance opportunities. Just know that you fired it off in a bad way, console yourself that your ev wasn't -600, and be glad that you didn't win to reinforce some bad habits.
Playing games where the odds aren't transparent with a small edge and a large risk relative to bankroll is a great way to get broke many times over. It's pretty much all these low level slot hustlers do.
Quote: Mission146I'm going to step in and defend this thread, as I really don't see what's wrong with it.
I'm not suggesting that the OP's assumptions were good, but there are theoretical situations (per WoO) where he would have been at an advantage given those Progressive points, it's just that I doubt any of them were actually the case. Either way, the thread serves to spark a conversation about these machines, and the loss, in my opinion, provides a good cautionary tale about making too many assumptions about these type of machines.
Superficially, when you look at a machine that's going to take $300 in Progressive increases to make the must-hit, and you've already got $265 of that taken care of for you, then 265/300 = 88.333-%, so it's almost understandable for a person to assume a possible advantage when he/she sees that almost 90% of the work has already been done for them.
That's part of the draw of these machines once they eclipse that halfway point, it looks like things are good for the player when they are not. Why anyone plays the Progressives before that point; (which some must do or they'd never get there) I can't even begin to hope to explain.
I think you were touching on it earlier but I am confused about the payback percentage. Lets say a state has a rule where the % can not be below 90%. Is that including the progressive? or can you assume that the base play of the game is 90% plus whatever you calculate the current progressive at?
I would assume they can add the base progressive amount to the game if they wanted to. IE 88% without progressive 2% meter added to be 90%Quote: GWAEI think you were touching on it earlier but I am confused about the payback percentage. Lets say a state has a rule where the % can not be below 90%. Is that including the progressive? or can you assume that the base play of the game is 90% plus whatever you calculate the current progressive at?
Quote: Mission146I find that a bit too Conservative, but I don't know that I'd play anything more than $12 away, regardless of the Minor value...unless it was only $1.20 away.
I was referring to the minor jackpot needing to be a minimum of $5 away before I would even look at it and try and do the calculations in my head.
Even worst is trying to justify it.Quote: Neutrino
As an AP, I believe one of the most dangerous things is thinking you're making a +EV play when you're making a -EV play. I have been extremely cautious of this in the past and always try to analyze and stay realistic. I try not to let things like ego or pride get in the way of realistic EV assessment.
I find it strange that, you have to TRY not to let ego or pride get in the way of realistic EV assessment. I'm not sure if i can even explain what I mean by that. Ego or pride should never even be a part of Slot/VP/ table games AP. I can understand how poker might have Ego and pride rear its ugly head. How can slots get to your ego or pride? The fact that you had to mention this is baffling to me. When you win on a slot have you or do you flex your muscles at the slot and yell, FU slot I kicked your ass?
Quote: jeffwarren75Nothing wrong with the thread- it just amazes me that people think they have an ap play when the dont
Why don't they stick to the real AP plays, like stealing from other AP's, right?
Quote: AxelWolfWhen you win on a slot have you or do you flex your muscles at the slot and yell, FU slot I kicked your ass?
I thought this was standard operating procedure.
Quote: AxelWolfWhen you win on a slot have you or do you flex your muscles at the slot and yell, FU slot I kicked your ass?
Every time!
Sorry can't help OP in calculating slot progressives....but on the topic, I saw a guy yesterday vulture an Ult X machine. Said vulture spends 5 minutes trying to get these wrinkly assed $1 bills into the machine. THEN he looks through each of the games and denominations. Nothing. He goes to the machine right next to it, and eventually finds a 2x multiplier for the next hand....on the 2nd line of a 10-line machine. Instead of just playing 1 credit on the bottom two lines, he clicks it to 1 credit for 3 lines...then 4 then 5 lines....he pulls out more money to put in the machine. Im really confused now. He puts $5 more dollars into the machine....and ends up playing 1 credit on 10 lines ($1 machine)....didn't see what he held, but he must have lost on each of the lines. The dude gave me this arrogant look, like, "I know what I'm doing don't look at me," feeling proud of himself because he "successfully" vultured an Ult X machine, yet failed in just about every way possible.
Quote: jeffwarren75Nothing wrong with the thread- it just amazes me that people think they have an ap play when the dont
It doesn't amaze me, it's an easy mistake to make. If you're going to AP slots (VP and VK discluded as being about nothing but the Math) there's going to be a little trial-and-error involved. Also, without knowing the probability of event x, you take a sample and hope that the sample isn't too far skewed, always ready to adjust your expectations if it is.
Quote: AxelWolfI would assume they can add the base progressive amount to the game if they wanted to. IE 88% without progressive 2% meter added to be 90%
That's correct.
