Ultimate x question
Quote: jeffwarren75Not sure if I played this correct- Had 5x on all hands got dealt 22278 of clubs in a deuces wild game for a dealt straight flush which if I kept it would be 5x each straight flush and 12 x each hand on the next hand- After a couple responses ill post what I did and the results
If I calculated right, and assuming a 25/15/9/4/4/3 pay table, if you threw out the 78, there are 1081 possible hands:
46 (the remaining 2 and any of the other 46 cards) Four Deuces = 9200 (and 2x)
40 (AT, AJ, AQ, AK, KT, KJ, KQ, QT, QJ, JT, of each suit) Wild Royal = 1000 (and 2x)
66 (sh, sd, sc, hd, hc, dc of any of the 10 ranks besides 2,7,8 + 7sh 7sd 7hd 8sh 8sd 8hd) Five Of A Kind = 990 (and 3x)
112 (A3,A4,A5,34,35,36,37,45,46,47,48,56,57,58,59,67,68,69,6T,78,79,7T,7J,89,8T,8J,8Q,9T,9J,9Q,9K = 31 pairs x 4 suits - 37,47,48,57,58,67,68,78,79,7T,7J,89,8T,8J clubs) Straight Flush = 1008 (and 12x)
I think the remaining 817 are all Four Of A Kind = 3268 (and 7x)
Expected value for five hands = 71.535 with 6.867x mean multiplier (34.335x "total multiplier")
Keeping the SFs = 45 with 12x multiplier
You gain 26.535 by drawing, but lose 25.675x in combined multipliers - but assuming the expected hand value is < 1, I think you're slightly better off by holding the deuces and tossing the 78.
Got to love that.Quote: jeffwarren75After a couple responses ill post what I did and the results
Do you have a pic or do we just have to take your word for it?
Are you the same Jeff Warren that Bob Dancer wrote about?Quote: jeffwarren75Not sure if I played this correct- Had 5x on all hands got dealt 22278 of clubs in a deuces wild game for a dealt straight flush which if I kept it would be 5x each straight flush and 12 x each hand on the next hand- After a couple responses ill post what I did and the results
Quote: AxelWolfDo you have a pic or do we just have to take your word for it?
Lol. I'm going to make sure I always bring my camera from now on in case anything exciting happens. Nothing gets by you axel, without a pic? ;)
Quote: DraculaLol. I'm going to make sure I always bring my camera from now on in case anything exciting happens. Nothing gets by you axel, without a pic? ;)
Yeah, I don't really think whether it actually happened is that relevant anyway, is it?
Quote: FinsRuleYeah, I don't really think whether it actually happened is that relevant anyway, is it?
I think it would maybe warrant a pic now, that he has made a "to be continued". If he said it all in one post, I could give him the benefit of the doubt. Lol. Jk, makes no difference to me.
Quote: jeffwarren75Not sure if I played this correct- Had 5x on all hands got dealt 22278 of clubs in a deuces wild game for a dealt straight flush which if I kept it would be 5x each straight flush and 12 x each hand on the next hand- After a couple responses ill post what I did and the results
If I can read tells - and I don't think I can actually can, it's obvious what play the OP made. Since he said, "what I did and the results" it means he did not keep the SF. Why would he say "and the results" if he kept the SF, we know what they are.
So based on this - he most definitely dumped the SF.
Quote: FinsRuleIf I can read tells - and I don't think I can actually can, it's obvious what play the OP made. Since he said, "what I did and the results" it means he did not keep the SF. Why would he say "and the results" if he kept the SF, we know what they are.
So based on this - he most definitely dumped the SF.
Now I feel like to much is on the line. I can see why he requests pics. Lol
Not sure why he cant just say what he held and what he got up front? Is he afraid of criticism? Will he change his story after the fact?
I seem to remember something like this once before.
A guy asked all the "proper strategy people" what they would hold on a particular hand. of course everyone fall's for it and tell him the correct hold . Example 2 aces vs 3 to a royal. We tell him the ACES at that point he calls us all fools because he got 2 royals by dumping the Aces.
Quote: AxelWolfAs far as the answer to the question it does not matter at all, I agree.
Not sure why he cant just say what he held and what he got up front? Is he afraid of criticism? Will he change his story after the fact?
I seem to remember something like this once before.
A guy asked all the "proper strategy people" what they would hold on a particular hand. of course everyone fall's for it and tell him the correct hold . Example 2 aces vs 3 to a royal. We tell him the ACES at that point he calls us all fools because he got 2 royals by dumping the Aces.
With JB never publishing the Ultimate X Deuces strategy, I dunno if anyone makes a big deal over which play he makes. It might be paytable dependent, which he never gave us to begin with.
Quote: tringlomaneWith JB never publishing the Ultimate X Deuces strategy, I dunno if anyone makes a big deal over which play he makes. It might be paytable dependent, which he never gave us to begin with.
We've definitely crossed the threshold for picture verification...
Would you toss a FH with 3 aces on DB or DDB if the denom was quite large, and you had a multiplier? How much EV do you want to give up for a safe return? But with that said, what is the point where it's "close enough" that either way is right, so now it's just the difference between do you want the guarantee, or do you want the EV?
Quote: djatcThought about this..... if you're vulturing multipliers can't you give up a huge amount of EV and still be up? I don't know how to quantify the advantage but even a 2x on ten play must be f'ing huge. If that were the case, now the problem is do you keep the sure thing, or play according to EV?
Would you toss a FH with 3 aces on DB or DDB if the denom was quite large, and you had a multiplier? How much EV do you want to give up for a safe return? But with that said, what is the point where it's "close enough" that either way is right, so now it's just the difference between do you want the guarantee, or do you want the EV?
Quantifying the advantage is simple, at least, if one assumes Optimal Strategy:
If a game is 8/6 JoB, for example, then the return (assuming Optimal Strategy) is .983927 per hand without a multiplier, so if you have one hand with a 2x multiplier:
((.983927 * 9) + (.983927 * 2))/10 = 1.0823197
Which translates to an advantage of 8.23197%, assuming Optimal Strategy.
If one plays sub-Optimally, then it becomes difficult to quantify what the return is, even with the extra multipliers, without knowing what specific mistakes the person will make. For example, when vulturing any Bonus Variant, I typically just play Optimal JoB strategy because I don't see the time utility in learning Optimal Strategy for all of the bonus variants when I'm still probably only going to play a few hundred hands of them in the course of my entire life, and then, still at a huge overall advantage.
I think it was a Bob Dancer article where he discussed a guy who saw a positive Progressive (or something to that effect) and then went home and spent hours analyzing all of the Optimal Strategy exceptions based on the new Royal pay rather than just sitting there and playing the game based on typical Optimal strategy in which he'd have still been at a huge advantage. It may not have been a Dancer article, but I'm 95% sure it was. Anyway, the entire article was basically about there not being a ton of utility in doing that.
Further, in my case, I know a few of the more serious Bonus deviations on more frequently occurring hands, but default to Optimal JoB when I don't know what else to do.
To the bottom part, I think Wizard would advocate playing for the best EV, although there are some situations in which I, personally, would just lock up the win. In the specific scenario you mentioned, however, I'd probably be inclined to keep just the three Aces in Double Double Bonus, but not in Double Bonus, though it is the correct decision in either.
In Double Bonus, it's a much closer call than in DDB, in DDB, it's not even close. Besides, you're getting paid on all of the 3OaKs, at worst, anyway.
One might want to consider hand-pays before making a decision on close calls. Lets forget about that for nowQuote: djatcThought about this..... if you're vulturing multipliers can't you give up a huge amount of EV and still be up? I don't know how to quantify the advantage but even a 2x on ten play must be f'ing huge. If that were the case, now the problem is do you keep the sure thing, or play according to EV?
Would you toss a FH with 3 aces on DB or DDB if the denom was quite large, and you had a multiplier? How much EV do you want to give up for a safe return? But with that said, what is the point where it's "close enough" that either way is right, so now it's just the difference between do you want the guarantee, or do you want the EV?
A good example of a tough call might be something like this: Nice multiplier and nice denomination DW game you get dealt 2ws 2wc 2wh AH KH lets say the proper hold for this payable is to go for the 4 ducks. OUCH!
Quote: AxelWolfOne might want to consider hand-pays before making a decision on close calls. Lets forget about that for now
A good example of a tough call might be something like this: Nice multiplier and nice denomination DW game you get dealt 2ws 2wc 2wh AH KH lets say the proper hold for this payable is to go for the 4 ducks. OUCH!
Loose Deuces for Ultimate X? Either way, if it were the right hold to go for the Four Deuces, I would do that without hesitation, the worst you can do on each hand is 4OaK...but there are very few paytables where that is the right hold, you typically just take the Wild Royal.
Quote: tringlomaneYeah as Don shows, it's close when the SF pays 9 for 1. But if he is playing the 96.77% base paytable where the SF pays 13 for 1, you definitely need to hold the SF. Probably should hold on to it with the 97.58% base paytable too (SF 10 for 1).
The 20/12/10 paytable would be a 5-hand EV gain of 20.212, but again, with a loss of 25.625 in multipliers. I agree; in this case, keep the SF.
Quote: Mission146Loose Deuces for Ultimate X? Either way, if it were the right hold to go for the Four Deuces, I would do that without hesitation, the worst you can do on each hand is 4OaK...but there are very few paytables where that is the right hold, you typically just take the Wild Royal.
That game would be sick with Ultimate X on top of it. I have seen wild-card Ultimate X only for Deuces Wild, Bonus Deuces, and Joker Wild so far. But I have seen Ultimate X with Triple Double Bonus, which would also be variance hell. Sadly, it's the best quarter-level game at Horseshoe Hammond (9/6 paytable), but of course you have to bet 30 quarters a hand to play the game "properly"...bleh.
Quote: djatcYou know what I've never considered this but I guess you might break wild royals if it only pays 20 if you have 3 deuces, but I'm not absolutely sure. I've only played DW games where you always keep a wild royal with 3 deuces.
In standard DW it's not very close. 3 Deuces is only worth about 15. And I think in most "Bonus Deuces" games, the wild royal is always 25.
Now if you were playing ultimate X, yeah it might be close. I'll save the math on that for now.
Quote: tringlomaneIn standard DW it's not very close. 3 Deuces is only worth about 15. And I think in most "Bonus Deuces" games, the wild royal is always 25.
Now if you were playing ultimate X, yeah it might be close. I'll save the math on that for now.
when I vulture, if I get dealt a wild royal with 3 deuces I am tossing the WR. I don't know if the math says that is what you are supposed to do but I would assume with the multipliers on the board the play is still very strong.
Quote: GWAEwhen I vulture, if I get dealt a wild royal with 3 deuces I am tossing the WR. I don't know if the math says that is what you are supposed to do but I would assume with the multipliers on the board the play is still very strong.
The play is still very strong, but that is the wrong decision for most DW Variants, even those in which Four Deuces pays 200-For-1 and the Wild Royal pays 20-FOR-1, and the decision is NOT close. You're not even getting 75% of the hand value of the pat Wild Royal with Three Deuces keeping the three Deuces. It's honestly just a really bad play on most Deuces paytables.
The play is still strong with the multipliers on the board, obviously, because you've already won the hand and you have multipliers. The worst result for any individual hand is 4OaK. Another thing to consider, depending on the denomination (consider quarters or dollars) the Four Deuces might result in a little tax paperwork for you if it does hit, so you lose a little bit of that value which is already inferior to keeping the Wild Royal.
Quote: GWAEwhen I vulture, if I get dealt a wild royal with 3 deuces I am tossing the WR. I don't know if the math says that is what you are supposed to do but I would assume with the multipliers on the board the play is still very strong.
If you are betting 10, the possibility of multipliers on the next hand changes your strategy, but, if you're just betting 5 and vulturing, then the correct strategy is the same as a regular game, regardless of multipliers.
Quote: GWAEI am not saying I am correct. If I hold the WE at 20 credits I am only going to get 1300 or so credits depending on multipliers. I personally would prefer to go for the 4 deuces. The shot at a few grand outweighs the guaranteed few hundred. If I were playing the game to play instead of vulturing then I may think differently.
Couple thousand that you have to pay 25% taxes on, and unless your total deductions (including a gambling losses deduction that only counts to equal the amount of your claimed wins) end up being greater than the Standard Deduction, you'd be sacrificing direct cash value. In other words, if the standard deduction still ends up being the greater of the two, then you essentially cannot deduct gambling losses from that win and it will count as income that you cannot do anything to mitigate.
It's up to you to play it the way you want to, but even if I were in the mood to take a shot, I certainly would pick a better opportunity than making a play that has less than 75% of the value of keeping the dealt hand.
Quote: GWAEwhen I vulture, if I get dealt a wild royal with 3 deuces I am tossing the WR. I don't know if the math says that is what you are supposed to do but I would assume with the multipliers on the board the play is still very strong.
I don't know of any game where you toss a WR. If you played 10 play $1 you'll get a taxable at 125 credits per hand but not for 100. Getting the 4th deuce is something like 1/47 and if not on the next hand then the one after at 1/46. Now if that equals more then the wild royal, sure it makes sense, or if you want to forego a small taxable for a chance at a big one. Since I don't mind getting a sure shot at a small taxable I'll take it and throw any EV calculations out the window if the gain is minsucle. Also consider the utility of money.
Quote: djatcI don't know of any game where you toss a WR. .
Only a high enough progressive meter on 4 Deuces could possibly change the hold.
Quote: djatcI don't know of any game where you toss a WR. If you played 10 play $1 you'll get a taxable at 125 credits per hand but not for 100. Getting the 4th deuce is something like 1/47 and if not on the next hand then the one after at 1/46. Now if that equals more then the wild royal, sure it makes sense, or if you want to forego a small taxable for a chance at a big one. Since I don't mind getting a sure shot at a small taxable I'll take it and throw any EV calculations out the window if the gain is minsucle. Also consider the utility of money.
101.6% Loose Deuces to name one, that's why I replied to Axelwolf's post that way. The decision to keep the three deuces is better by 1.86309 units, so the decision to keep the WR only has a value of 93.06449854% that of just keeping the Three Deuces.
In addition to the fact that the Four Deuces pays substantially more, so does the 5OaK on the 101.6% (and other) paytables, and on the ones where the 5OaK is not better than straight-up DW, the SF is often better.
They just don't make LDW for UX, at least, not that I have ever seen.
Quote: Mission146101.6% Loose Deuces to name one, that's why I replied to Axelwolf's post that way. The decision to keep the three deuces is better by 1.86309 units, so the decision to keep the WR only has a value of 93.06449854% that of just keeping the Three Deuces.
In addition to the fact that the Four Deuces pays substantially more, so does the 5OaK on the 101.6% (and other) paytables, and on the ones where the 5OaK is not better than straight-up DW, the SF is often better.
They just don't make LDW for UX, at least, not that I have ever seen.
One interesting fact about 101.6% Loose Deuces is it's even positive when you are shortcoining, 100.6% I think.
Quote: djatcI don't know of any game where you toss a WR.
Harrah's Las Vegas (and other casinos; including my closest casino to my home) have a few. For some reason, 50/100 Play Poker with STP has an option where the royal flush on deuces only is 5600 credits. So you'll toss a Wild Royal with one deuce in this case. Why they offer this is beyond me...but it does make the 98.91% Deuces paytable 99.96% after the extra royal and the STP bet, but I have never seen this paytable in person. I have heard it may exist at the Isle of Capri in Lake Charles, LA. One of my local casinos offers the "Colorado Deuces" paytable for pennies (96.77% before adjustments) with this as well making the game around 97.8% after the 5600 Royal and the STP bet.
How fast is that machine anyways? Do you get Mailers/comps /rooms/from playing it?Quote: Mission146101.6% Loose Deuces to name one, that's why I replied to Axelwolf's post that way. The decision to keep the three deuces is better by 1.86309 units, so the decision to keep the WR only has a value of 93.06449854% that of just keeping the Three Deuces.
In addition to the fact that the Four Deuces pays substantially more, so does the 5OaK on the 101.6% (and other) paytables, and on the ones where the 5OaK is not better than straight-up DW, the SF is often better.
They just don't make LDW for UX, at least, not that I have ever seen.
Quote: AxelWolfHow fast is that machine anyways? Do you get Mailers/comps /rooms/from playing it?
Dunno about comps, but considering it's a nickel coindropper, probably not worth talking about. I did have fun with it when I played it in 2011 though. My last trip to downtown someone was already on it and my g/f was in a mood, so I had to pass. A few minutes later, I watched the 200 for 1 hit on Sigma Derby...Yikes!
I was not talking for myself. I was wondering if it was worth it for someone who is Downtown anyways messing around during slow times, someone looking to get free rooms and weekly mailers.Quote: tringlomaneDunno about comps, but considering it's a nickel coindropper, probably not worth talking about. I did have fun with it when I played it in 2011 though. My last trip to downtown someone was already on it and my g/f was in a mood, so I had to pass. A few minutes later, I watched the 200 for 1 hit on Sigma Derby...Yikes!
Quote: AxelWolfI was not talking for myself. I was wondering if it was worth it for someone who is Downtown anyways messing around during slow times, someone looking to get free rooms and weekly mailers.
Oh, in that case, no idea. I do know there is a slot for a players card available, but it's so old it was a separate entity to the machine...lol
Quote: AxelWolfHow fast is that machine anyways? Do you get Mailers/comps /rooms/from playing it?
It's pretty slow, you have to use the buttons as it has no touch screen feature. I can't speak for comps just from playing it as I also played some Jokers and a little bit of Craps on my December visit. The liked me well enough to offer me $5 Free Play, $5 Match Play and buy-one get-one rooms for as many nights as I wanted, which I used on my most recent trip. If any part of your stay is comped, you pay no resort fee, so I essentially got a quite good room for $11/night + tax as my rate on the night I paid was $22 and my second night free.
You do know they have a Double Bonus for quarters that starts at 100.17% and is a Progressive? That would be a good game to hit to supplement the Loose Deuces action if one is playing in the hopes of getting comps.
Honestly, though, I don't think it takes a whole lot to get offers there. My first Vegas visit, despite the fact that I was staying there the entire time, considering all games, I couldn't have been good for more than $2,000-$2,500 coin-in.
