Buffett offers $1 billion for perfect NCAA bracket
http://www.ajc.com/news/sports/college-basketball/warrenn-buffett-offers-1-billion-for-perfect-ncaa-/ncwjr/
Quote: bbbbccccFill out a perfect NCAA bracket, win a billion dollars
http://www.ajc.com/news/sports/college-basketball/warrenn-buffett-offers-1-billion-for-perfect-ncaa-/ncwjr/
The odds of filling out a perfect bracket are astronomical
1 in 9,223,372,036,854,775,808
http://www.usatoday.com/story/gameon/2013/03/19/ncaa-tournament-perfect-bracket-odds-quintillion/1999795/?showmenu=true
Quote: BuzzardIs the money in an escrow account ? I don't want to spend time winning this and then not get paid !
It's insured by Berkshire, and Buffett has publicly commented on it. Of all people, I don't think Buffett is the one that would ruin his reputation at the end of his life by refusing to pay it off. The guy is old and knows he can't take it all with him.
Quote: TranscendThe odds of filling out a perfect bracket are astronomical
1 in 9,223,372,036,854,775,808
So you're telling me there's a chance?
Quote: befamous7So you're telling me there's a chance?
There is always a chance....and you may as well enter if you can
Quote: TranscendThe odds of filling out a perfect bracket are astronomical
1 in 9,223,372,036,854,775,808
http://www.usatoday.com/story/gameon/2013/03/19/ncaa-tournament-perfect-bracket-odds-quintillion/1999795/?showmenu=true
That's if you pick blindly though.
If you have a 2/3rds chance of winning every game (more realistic), then you have 1 in 124 billion chance of being perfect.
Quote: tringlomaneThat's if you pick blindly though.
If you have a 2/3rds chance of winning every game (more realistic), then you have 1 in 124 billion chance of being perfect.
True but still rather outrageous chances
Quote: befamous7So you're telling me there's a chance?
funny line from Dumb and Dumber
Quote: thecesspitUS citizens only.... sigh...
I'm happy to put in your picks cesspit... for a small fee...
Quote: TranscendThe odds of filling out a perfect bracket are astronomical
1 in 9,223,372,036,854,775,808
http://www.usatoday.com/story/gameon/2013/03/19/ncaa-tournament-perfect-bracket-odds-quintillion/1999795/?showmenu=true
so whats to prevent someone from filling out 9,223,372,036,854,775,808 entries via automated script?
Quote: 100xOddsso whats to prevent someone from filling out 9,223,372,036,854,775,808 entries via automated script?
Well, it's one entry per household.
But, don't worry, I'm WAY ahead of you. Just buying up some property...
Quote: 100xOddsso whats to prevent someone from filling out 9,223,372,036,854,775,808 entries via automated script?
There is a limit of one entry per household
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceWell, it's one entry per household.
But, don't worry, I'm WAY ahead of you. Just buying up some property...
Yeah, we considered that already this morning in the office...then looked at how long it'd take to enter those values anyways. 106 Million days, at 1 million entries per second.
Quote: thecesspitYeah, we considered that already this morning in the office...then looked at how long it'd take to enter those values anyways. 106 Million days, at 1 million entries per second.
And if you had to print them as well...ouch...lucky to print 1 copy per second. Not to mention postage and all the licking of the envelopes.
Quote:odds of a person with basketball knowledge correctly predicting every game is 1 in 128 billion.
that strikes me as exaggerated ... somebody good might have better chances than that, seems to me
By the way, I am assuming Mr Buffet is not a member here, otherwise I will see you in 3 days for calling him an asshole.
Quote: thecesspitYeah, we considered that already this morning in the office...then looked at how long it'd take to enter those values anyways. 106 Million days, at 1 million entries per second.
even with the processing power of a datacenter and a oc-128 internet connection?
(yeah I might get fired if they catch me, but i'll be $1B richer)
Quote: 100xOddseven with the processing power of a datacenter and a oc-128 internet connection?
(yeah I might get fired if they catch me, but i'll be $1B richer)
It's the size of the pipe and server at the other end you'll have to worry about :)
You auto-generate 100 million entries for each household that each have a different prediction associated. Further assume that that the predictions generated are an expert based system that gives you a 1 in 124 billion chance of guessing right. Therefore, you have a probability of winning:
P = (100million /124,000million)(90million / 100million) = 0.0766%
since 95% of your predictions will not be disqualified for having duplicate addresses.
Now, after you reach the final four you will have a pretty good idea of which household addresses will win based on your predictions. You would then need to enter into negotiations with the owners and offer them a hefty incentive to retroactively lease the address temporarily for a year. Part of the agreement is that they would have to stipulate that they did not enter into any contests in the last few months since there is a remote possibility that someone at the address entered the contest. So you would need a large amount of capital to do this: say $25,000 per household = $100,000.
Finally, I assume that Buffett wouldn't just mail you a check. I assume he would want a lot of paper work filled out and he would do a very detailed background check on you. There is still a good chance that they would discover that you made multiple entries and disqualify you.
Conclusion: Not worth the time and energy to write the code to do this.
My opinion is If it were to ever happen, most of the top ranked seeds would have to win, and then at that point you probably have quite a few brackets all the same and end up splitting the money. Anyway I don't think I'll see a perfect bracket in my lifetime.
Quote: odiousgambitwhat the hell does "perfect" mean, scores too?
No - you just have to pick the winners of the 63 games starting with the Round of 64. If you assume each team has a 50% chance of winning any particular game, the chance of getting all 63 right is 263.
Even if you assume that all four of the #1 seeds will win their first games (since no 16 seed has ever beaten a 1, although at least one came close, and you have to realize that there have only been 116 #1 vs #16 games in the history of the tournament; also, it has happened in the women's tournament, albeit with a bit of an asterisk as the #1 team played without its two top players), that's still 259 possible brackets, or over 576 quadrillion to 1 odds against you.
http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2014/02/03/yahoo-sued-buffett-ncaa/?iid=obinsite
Quote: FinsRuleI imagine no one has a perfect bracket as of now. If there is a handful, I'm sure they won't survive the night.
Espn had 11 million entries and about 16k perfects thru day 1. A couple of those may survive day 2. Duke losing will make it tough though.
Quote: SkittleCar1According to ESPN, there is still a little over 2,000 still in.
How many entries?
Quote: treetopbuddyHow many entries?
See my post 16 seconds earlier...lol
Even though the odds are astronimical and this is mostly a gimmick, someone could win the $1 billion.
I do no think an average person can handle having a $1 billion.
And from an ethical point of view I think is wrong do win such an astronomical amount basically on luck (I accept taht there is some element of skill but it would be mostly luck)
The people who have $1 billion (who are very few) have made it over a long period of time through had work, enterpreunrship, being very clever and some luck on the side. And that $1 billion is usually invested in many companies which employ thousands of people and provide backing to the economy.
I cant imagine if an average person gets suddenly this kind of money, what he will do with them and how good is such a thing for the society as a whole.
Quote: AceTwoI think it is wrong to offer a Prize of $1 billion.
Even though the odds are astronimical and this is mostly a gimmick, someone could win the $1 billion.
I do no think an average person can handle having a $1 billion.
And from an ethical point of view I think is wrong do win such an astronomical amount basically on luck (I accept taht there is some element of skill but it would be mostly luck)
The people who have $1 billion (who are very few) have made it over a long period of time through had work, enterpreunrship, being very clever and some luck on the side. And that $1 billion is usually invested in many companies which employ thousands of people and provide backing to the economy.
I cant imagine if an average person gets suddenly this kind of money, what he will do with them and how good is such a thing for the society as a whole.
If I had a billion dollars I would invest it, so I would be putting it back into the economy :)
If before the final four, or perhaps the finals, they offer to buy you out for a few hundred million, would you say no, or risk it all by staying in?
Quote: AceTwoI think it is wrong to offer a Prize of $1 billion.
Even though the odds are astronimical and this is mostly a gimmick, someone could win the $1 billion.
I do no think an average person can handle having a $1 billion.
And from an ethical point of view I think is wrong do win such an astronomical amount basically on luck (I accept taht there is some element of skill but it would be mostly luck)
The people who have $1 billion (who are very few) have made it over a long period of time through had work, enterpreunrship, being very clever and some luck on the side. And that $1 billion is usually invested in many companies which employ thousands of people and provide backing to the economy.
I cant imagine if an average person gets suddenly this kind of money, what he will do with them and how good is such a thing for the society as a whole.
I'd love to see somebody win the billion……we can then watch the cat self destruct. Love riches to rags stories.
Quote: treetopbuddyI'd love to see somebody win the billion……we can then watch the cat self destruct. Love riches to rags stories.
Maybe something like this:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abraham_Shakespeare
Quote: Dalex64I'm not so sure that it would ever get to that point.
If before the final four, or perhaps the finals, they offer to buy you out for a few hundred million, would you say no, or risk it all by staying in?
You take the few hundred million. Or sell it for half that, and agree if it wins you get an extra 1/3billion.
Quote: bwMaybe something like this:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abraham_Shakespeare
Thanks for making my day a little brighter
Quote: AceTwoI think it is wrong to offer a Prize of $1 billion.
Even though the odds are astronimical and this is mostly a gimmick, someone could win the $1 billion.
I do no think an average person can handle having a $1 billion.
And from an ethical point of view I think is wrong do win such an astronomical amount basically on luck (I accept taht there is some element of skill but it would be mostly luck)
The people who have $1 billion (who are very few) have made it over a long period of time through had work, enterpreunrship, being very clever and some luck on the side. And that $1 billion is usually invested in many companies which employ thousands of people and provide backing to the economy.
I cant imagine if an average person gets suddenly this kind of money, what he will do with them and how good is such a thing for the society as a whole.
It's his billion, he can do whatever he wants with it.
/edited to add:
Everyone who is left has picked Kansas, who at the end of the first half is tied with E. Kentucky.
So, it could be all over at the end of this game.
Quote: bwI wouldn't even need a few hundred million. Give me 10 million and I will be happy.
Give me $1.5 million right now and I will stop working next week.
