Following odds or luck?

I want to begin by saying I'm an experienced dealer of the midwest! Hooray!

I just did a two year stay in Vegas (Spring Valley area).

I have followed thy Wizard for years and throughout my times dealing and playing in places around the country I have one question.



The odds..the statistics...the basic plays...the better games to play.

What I am asking in a simplified format is how do you know when the odds or advantage in a game may or may not benefit you based on a certain amount of bankroll and/or hands played?

On a bad day I will be stuck dealing a $5 minimum Blackjack table and see some crazy ass shit work. I know basic strategy, I can count, I can do anything of that sort to a proficient level. What I'm wondering is are those statistics and odds in "basic strategy" based off certain amount of hands or long term playing?

At the end of the day it benefits to follow basis strategy, but at what point do you consider "fucking around" and getting lucky?

Because that is what most $5 BJ players are doing!

Anything can work in the short term. Example: playing the lottery is a terrible play, but some people win it.

To answer the question about at what point do you consider "...getting lucky," usually around the 4th beer:)

Doubledown21: You have a tough job! I understand that dealers' uniforms have no pockets. That's how much your employer trusts you! The basic strategy was devised by a mathematical technique known as combinatorial analysis, not by experiment. Whether or not the player has an advantage depends on the count. If you are an honest dealer you cannot influence the count. The player's advantage lies in increasing his bet when the count becomes favorable. Edward Thorp, the inventor of the basic strategy, soon found out that when he did this the dealer would shuffle up. Today's blackjack teams avoid this by playing small and secretly calling to the table a member of the team who is a big spender when the count turns favorable. I'm sure you know all this, but some of the readers might not.

Well I loved your reply, but what I'm essentially referring to is how basic strategy may or may not benefit the short term player. If someone could run some numbers and/or explain this it would be amazing. Not only do I think about it everyday myself, I also get asked. Basic strategy is great, but when do we start rethinking hitting 16's and not doubling on hard 12s based on a chart? It has to be based on a long term number, not quick obviously.

Edit: Yes we do not have pockets haha. I've been at two casinos that allowed fanny packs around the waist for personal items such as smokes, cellphones, etc.

Quote: Doubledown21

What I'm wondering is are those statistics and odds in "basic strategy" based off certain amount of hands or long term playing?

It's based upon all the results possible, so you can say it's more indicative of what wins you the most over the long-term on average. But it's also what will win you the most in short-term sessions as well on average. But in the short-term though variance is a much bigger factor and playing like garbage can still lead to a big win sometimes.

Are there numbers proving that long term strategy will win you the most in a short-term session? There are quite a bit of variances involved so I doubt you could commit to an equation of some sort, but just saying it really doesn't mean a lot to me. Although I would, based of experience and everything else, agree with you.

Basic strategy is a way in which to play to lose the least. It is not about winning, It's about loosing the least possible.

Quote: rainman

Basic strategy is a way in which to play to lose the least. It is not about winning, It's about loosing the least possible.

But when does that come into account for the average small bet, once a year player.

These numbers are ran off of long-term.

Quote: Doubledown21

But when does that come into account for the average small bet, once a year player.

These numbers are ran off of long-term.

It's meaningless to a once a year player. The more a player plays the more playing basic strat or not has an effect on the amount said player loses.