NFL early scoring safties
Quote: paisielloAre 10 games a large enough sample size to have any reasonable confidence in the 5% rate? What is the rate for all NFL regular season games?
I can tell you in in the 2713 games I've recorded from week 1 of 2000 through week 4 of 2010 (when I got tired of the tedious data entry), 5.1% of games had a safety.
To answer your question, no, 10 games are not a large enough sample size, especially for something that doesn't happen often.
Quote: WizardI can tell you in in the 2713 games I've recorded from week 1 of 2000 through week 4 of 2010 (when I got tired of the tedious data entry), 5.1% of games had a safety.
To answer your question, no, 10 games are not a large enough sample size, especially for something that doesn't happen often.
A bigger question is do you know how often the losing team get a non-intentional safety? Twice in one day has to be unusual.
Quote: AZDuffmanA bigger question is do you know how often the losing team get a non-intentional safety?
No. My data doesn't indicate the reason for the safety.
Quote: WizardI'm having doubts about betting this "no safety" this Super Bowl. I've lost more than I care to say betting the "no safety" lately. They happened in two out of the last three Super Bowls. Still, in my data from 2000 to 2009, they occurred in 5% of games only.
At least two more safeties again this week. Yeah, I wouldn't blame you for steering away from the "no safety" bet on the next Super Bowl.
