Still up after 88 casino sessions ...

You did miss something:

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/craps/14979-my-monotonous-70-win/4/#post266690

I had no 'system', this is just the way I played and I was "lucky".

Quote: wroberson

If the reason we win is always luck, why do we bother with all the math and counting?

The question is how much luck.

Quote: AxelWolf

what are you talking about? Did i miss something? I must have missed his original post where he said something like.... I was with 20 hot college girls and "Did you see my thread of how lucky I was? Initial bankroll/buy in of $60, left the table with $130(winning $70). $70 isn't a lot of money, but it sure beats losing. I feel extremely" lucky.

In the post I just seen I was only seeing the following "how lucky I was? Initial bankroll/buy in of $60, left the table with $130(winning $70)."
I guess i should have went back and read the other post. thinking about it now he probably had some system that was working at first then bet big and gave lot a lot back and quit up $70

It was in a different thread, I think. I was just defending him in saying he wasn't being sarcastic. He was flat-betting the DC, one DC bet made after a point was established, if I recall.

Quote: wroberson

If the reason we win is always luck,
why do we bother with all the math and counting?

nasty question
Instead of using 'blue-sky'
values for luck that all gamblers use at most times

Luck, gambling in general,
is easily quantified by starting with

expected value and standard deviation (NO it is NOT!)

many just say Luck is all about EV.
Everyone that plays a negative expectation casino game
always
loses.
No point to go further.

"I always win playing in the short run, because
no one ever plays in the long run"

what is EV?
Huh?
What is variance?
Whaa?
Why are they important?
Why are they are NOT important?

Make bets against a house edge
and you will lose that percentage from all the $$$ you bet.
What is the house edge and why it it important to know it?

blue-sky
Maybe Mr. Blue Sky
one more

Quote: Mission146

It was in a different thread, I think. I was just defending him in saying he wasn't being sarcastic. He was flat-betting the DC, one DC bet made after a point was established, if I recall.

Exactly. About as non-fancy or sophisticated as you can get...Point established, don't come(flat-no odds-wait for outcome-repeat).

Quote: Mission146

It was in a different thread, I think. I was just defending him in saying he wasn't being sarcastic. He was flat-betting the DC, one DC bet made after a point was established, if I recall.

Why are you always defending him? I'm sad and hurt no one ever defends me on this forum. I get no respect for all the hard work I do for this site. I think we will have to meet in person at a casino.

I don't think he was defending me per se', I posted my experience and he put the math to it and my experience wasn't 'out of this world' or anything crazy and he concurred that it was a reasonable(somewhat) possibility that it had actually occurred. I didn't post it to boast-just saying. Didn't I say I was lucky? And I also admitted in that thread that I had been clobbered in the past at the craps table-more than once I might add.

Quote: Alan

Quote: AxelWolf

Why are you always defending him? I'm sad and hurt no one ever defends me on this forum. I get no respect for all the hard work I do for this site. I think we will have to meet in person at a casino.

I don't think he was defending me per se...

I think he was just doing his Ahigh impression. ;)

Quote: Beethoven9th

I think he was just doing his Ahigh impression. ;)

Who the hell is that anyway? Obviously this forum isn't a regular hangout of mine, just something I peek in on every now and then-more so after a gambling experience----wonder why that is..hmmm.

Quote: Alan

Who the hell is that anyway? Obviously this forum isn't a regular hangout of mine, just something I peek in on every now and then-more so after a gambling experience----wonder why that is..hmmm.

I don't know, I wonder why? FYI, I added a link to my previous post.

Holy threads batman...sorry I asked and I don't care who it is now...sorry I asked.

Quote: MathExtremist

It's not compelling at all. What you're experiencing is the right side of the tail.
Here's a little parable coined by Warren Buffett in the Superinvestors of Graham and Doddsville to explain what getting lucky really looks like:

The moral of the story: don't confuse your results with skill or think you've "beaten the math". You're just one of the lucky coin flippers. My advice is to keep your money; don't give it back by betting too large and getting greedy, because your good luck is not sustainable. No good luck ever is -- that's why it's luck.

That's a great story. Reminds me of the high school girls' rugby captain in New Zealand who lost like 90 coin flips in a row...

Never seen that Buffett anecdote before. I REALLY like that guy.

Quote: Alan

Holy threads batman...sorry I asked and I don't care who it is now...sorry I asked.

Now someone tell him about you-know-who.

Quote: 7craps

nasty question
Instead of using 'blue-sky'
values for luck that all gamblers use at most times

Luck, gambling in general,
is easily quantified by starting with

expected value and standard deviation (NO it is NOT!)

many just say Luck is all about EV.
Everyone that plays a negative expectation casino game
always
loses.
No point to go further.

"I always win playing in the short run, because
no one ever plays in the long run"

what is EV?
Huh?
What is variance?
Whaa?
Why are they important?
Why are they are NOT important?

Make bets against a house edge
and you will lose that percentage from all the $$$ you bet.
What is the house edge and why it it important to know it?

blue-sky
Maybe Mr. Blue Sky
one more

So we bother with the math to find
a wager with a low house edge
and a high expected value
so we can bet and achieve luck.

Quote: wroberson

So we bother with the math to find
a wager with a low house edge
and a high expected value
so we can bet and achieve luck.

We bother with the math because we want to understand what the house edge is. The entire field of probability theory was founded by French mathematicians who were trying to answer that question (Pascal and Fermat). We also bother with the math because we want to quantify how lucky we need to be in order to get ahead despite knowing about the house edge.

Quote: someone said this:

That isn't the "long run". Let's put it this way, there are guys who have won $1 million at craps (during longer winning streaks than yours), and they all lost it back.

Anyone who won $1 million playing craps and lost it back is a degenerate gambler, or at least really, really dumb. To not lock up a life-changing amount of money? That person is more interested in the action than in making money. That sort of bettor presses his bets to the max and never is able to end his sessions with either a small loss or small win. It's all or nothing.

That sort of playing does not interest me. I'm not interested in gambling. I'm more interested in being a money manager. I HATE losing and I have no interest in playing a game regularly that drains my money steadily over time. If that happens to me, I'll be out.

Nothing against those who enjoy gambling for the entertainment value or any other reason. It's just not for me as a regular pastime if the negative expectation cannot be overcome.

By the way, I lost 54 units today, which is about the worst I've ever done in one day, and I'm still up 658 units over 90 sessions, meaning I've averaged 7.3 units per session.

I will be out there tomorrow, playing the exact same way, and if I overcome this dip like I have the others that have come up, it will continue to be very interesting.

I'll add this, too ...

Anyone who pounds the table after a painful 7-out --- as if the early 7-out "should not" have come so quickly --- is in denial. Gambling is a form of denial.

Quote: Somebody else said:

I'm not interested in gambling.

That's not the impression I get from your posts.

Quote: Beethoven9th

That's not the impression I get from your posts.

Then we have a different definition of gambling.

Quote: Scoop

Then we have a different definition of gambling.

If you're playing craps, you're gambling.

Quote: Beethoven9th

If you're playing craps, you're gambling.

LOL, sure, of course.

But once I become a net loser, and once it appears that getting into the black is not achievable, then I won't be gambling anymore. I'll find more productive ways to invest my money.

Quote: Scoop

LOL, sure, of course.

But once I become a net loser, and once it appears that getting into the black is not achievable, then I won't be gambling anymore. I'll find more productive ways to invest my money.

I don't think you know what the word "invest" means.

For a recreational player, the house edge is essential: beating it is what makes the game fun. For a professional gambler, an advantage player, the house edge is artificial, something you step outside the game to circumvent.

Those are the only two possibilities. You cannot play inside the game and beat it.

Scoop, I don't understand why you think your system is better then proven math. Why are you better or smarter then some of the smartest guys in the world? Every computer and smart Knowable gaming expert can prove you can't beat the house edge in craps yet no one can prove you can. You are not the chosen one I assure you.

Quote: AxelWolf

Scoop, I don't understand why you think your system is better then proven math. Why are you better or smarter then some of the smartest guys in the world? Every computer and smart Knowable gaming expert can prove you can't beat the house edge in craps yet no one can prove you can. You are not the chosen one I assure you.

First of all, I never said I was The Chosen One. If you took the time to read this entire thread, I acknowledged multiple times about the mathematical reality of craps.

But here's what's interesting about my situation: I have been a net winner after NINETY SESSIONS. And each session averaged about 1.5 hours each. Do the math --- that's a LOT of playing time, even if you're just playing a few bets. We're talking TENS OF THOUSANDS OF ROLLS .... and I am still a NET WINNER.

Sure, some guys can go on a hot streak, winning maybe a few weeks in a row. But show me someone who plays a method systematically, and they're still a net winner MONTHS LATER? That's what I've done.

Talk all you want about math. I have experience. Craps is not played on a computer. Randomly generated numbers are not the same as dice rolling at a real table.

Am I saying math is irrelevant? No. What I AM saying is that I am a net winner after 90 sessions, and no one I know has done that. Please share with me all the net winners you have known after that length of time.

By the way, the betting sequence I use is an up-as-you-lose progression, which I normally abhor, but it happens to have a 92% win rate and when it DOES lose, my average wins more than cover the average occasional loss. THAT'S how I'm able to be ahead after this length of time.

Let me ask you something. How many newbies on this forum tout some new-found system as a winner? Lots, right? But how many have come in here and can show you that they average over 7 units per day after 90 days? No one, is my guess. If I'm wrong, then direct me to that thread.

And it's not like the graph of my winnings has bounced up and down, hovering near the break-even point, and just happens to be slightly ahead. It's ahead 658 units after 90 sessions. It's a graph that steadily goes up.

Of course, none of you know me from Adam, and it's all anonymous in here. But I'm not directing you to any website, and I'm not selling anything.

All I asked in the beginning was a simple question: How many sessions would you say is a reasonable sample size after which you'd say, "Okay, I think you're onto something."

And then all people could do is split hairs, like, "Well, tell me what your bets are," "Tell me how you define a session," "The math is incontrovertible."

Which is fine. I'm not trying to prove anything.

I finally DID get one person's opinion on what a reasonable sample size is, and I am actually approaching that.

Like I said earlier, if I'm still in here several months from now and have moved up safely a few more bet levels as I have already, then that will speak volumes.

Like I said earlier, if I'm still in here several months from now and have moved up safely a few more bet levels as I have already, then that will speak volumes.

It would if it was documented and not just random words.

You've made about 1100 wagers, correct? ("After 88 sessions I'm up to 1082 decisions", post #12.) And someone replied that it would take 45,000 wagers to become significant, I think. Not rolls, but decisions.

By the tone of your postings, I can only surmise that everything you are saying distills down to, "I don't believe I've been this lucky." Hell, I do, and I'm happy for you. About 7 years ago, in AC, I had a 3 day run of "carnival games" that would make anyone blush. Betting green chips, I hit 2 straight flushes at 3 Card. I hit 2 full houses at Let it Ride, including one that started as 3 of a kind in hand. The next morning I got up early to get coffee, stopped at the 3 Card table, and hit back to back 3 of a kinds... and on one of them, the dealer had a lower 3 of a kind! At 4 Card, I hit a straight flush. I hit $1195 on the $5 Wheel of Fortune at Tropicana. I hit $1000 on some crazy $1 slot at Caesars. All in all, in 3 days playing the doofus games, I won almost $10k. Everything I touched turned to money.

Of course this was unsustainable. And it isn't the same pattern you are describing. But it is totally within the realm of probability, within the rules of the mathematics, because it happened. Just like what you've done has happened. NOT the chosen one? Hell, as long as your streak holds, you ARE The Chosen One! Just like I was for 3 days. It was pretty freakin' awesome, by the way.

Chuck " The Pistol " Pistoria was God like one meet at Pimlico. Everyone was asking him for his selections Day after day he was hitting 2 or 3 longshots. His luck lasted the entire 60 day meet. And lost it all the first 30 days at Laurel.Your streak will end at a higher level. Just remember the good times and try and squirrel some of your winnings away. Or at least save bus fare.

Quote: Buzzard

Like I said earlier, if I'm still in here several months from now and have moved up safely a few more bet levels as I have already, then that will speak volumes.

It would if it was documented and not just random words.

And how could I document that to your satisfaction, exactly? Wear a video camera on my head so you can see me play every hand?

Quote: Mosca

You've made about 1100 wagers, correct? ("After 88 sessions I'm up to 1082 decisions", post #12.) And someone replied that it would take 45,000 wagers to become significant, I think. Not rolls, but decisions.

Yes, it was 1,082 decisions BUT by decision I mean the end of my progression. That can happen as quickly as 2 total decisions or it could be as many as 20. I would say the average is about 7. That means I'm up to over 7,500 decisions going by that definition.

Quote: Mosca

By the tone of your postings, I can only surmise that everything you are saying distills down to, "I don't believe I've been this lucky." Hell, I do, and I'm happy for you. About 7 years ago, in AC, I had a 3 day run of "carnival games" that would make anyone blush. Betting green chips, I hit 2 straight flushes at 3 Card. I hit 2 full houses at Let it Ride, including one that started as 3 of a kind in hand. The next morning I got up early to get coffee, stopped at the 3 Card table, and hit back to back 3 of a kinds... and on one of them, the dealer had a lower 3 of a kind! At 4 Card, I hit a straight flush. I hit $1195 on the $5 Wheel of Fortune at Tropicana. I hit $1000 on some crazy $1 slot at Caesars. All in all, in 3 days playing the doofus games, I won almost $10k. Everything I touched turned to money.

Of course this was unsustainable. And it isn't the same pattern you are describing. But it is totally within the realm of probability, within the rules of the mathematics, because it happened. Just like what you've done has happened. NOT the chosen one? Hell, as long as your streak holds, you ARE The Chosen One! Just like I was for 3 days. It was pretty freakin' awesome, by the way.

What a run you had!! As you said, that's very different from what I'm doing. Mine is a systematic grind.

"
What a run you had!! As you said, that's very different from what I'm doing. Mine is a systematic grind. "

So is every other progression DUH !

Quote: Scoop

As you said, that's very different from what I'm doing. Mine is a systematic grind.

I know. But add up all the bets made by all the gamblers in all the games in all the casinos in the world... for years and years and years. Centuries. Millennia. To the beginning of humans gambling. Those are just the actual wagers. Most likely, over all those wagers, over all that time, your results aren't even close to the best ever returned. And given that the actual mathematics that govern those results are good to infinity, I'd suggest that you've been really lucky.

And I'm not one of the math guys here, I just don't believe in magic. I trust the numbers that describe the way the world works.

Quote: Scoop

Yes, it was 1,082 decisions BUT by decision I mean the end of my progression. That can happen as quickly as 2 total decisions or it could be as many as 20. I would say the average is about 7. That means I'm up to over 7,500 decisions going by that definition.

Except some are much larger bets than others. The SD figures you saw from before assume unit bets on the line, not a variable amount bet over a multi-wager "decision" - however you choose to define that. If you're playing a systematic grind, you can compute the chances of winning and losing a single round of your progression, as well as the average win and loss amounts. If you do that, you can compute the standard deviation of your system as opposed to the passline. It sounds like your system has much greater variance, so the 45,000 number is going to be far too low for your method of play. You're still nowhere close to 3SD.

But be honest. Do you really think that by making wagers of differing amounts on the passline, you somehow have the edge?

_____

Quote: outofaces

What you've yet to experience is your catastrophic loss.

There is always the chance he will not hit a big loss until he has doubled or tripled or more his bankroll.
I think he mentioned investment?

More power to him, win, win, win.

Then some time in the near future, he will wonder why he just does not sell his idea.
Too much time it takes to win $$$, want to win more and faster, can win more $$$ by selling my idea.

So he does, a slick DVD and EBook.
One million buyers (give or take)

ME was a buyer and showed his progression over 2 bets to double a proper bankroll only
25% of the time before RUIN.

That means 750,000 just RUINED one Bankroll. Many are pissed off at the OP
so 1 in 750,000 comes after him. (maybe 2 they are really pissed off)

I would not like those odds against me.
I hope OP offers a 100% money back G

Gambling against a house edge going forward is Gambling.
no fine print needed.
No money back guarantee
(unless $$$ means nothing to you and you have boat loads of the stuff)

IMO
OP is still trolling (do not know why)

I have had very long sessions of wins. If you want to have a long session of wins, the easiest way to do it is every time you are up one unit, leave the casino and come back and call it a session.

SCOOP, Sorry in advance for the caps but I don't know how to quote different sections in one post.

Question 1) Axelwolf:Why wont you comment on the CHALLENGE ? You keep saying you may be on to something, as if you believe you might have a system that could be a good system that can beat the casinos. If you didn't make that statement and just asked people how LUCKY you were perhaps things would have went smoother.

First of all, I never said I was The Chosen One.

Axelwolf:YOU JUST IMPLIED IT

But here's what's interesting about my situation: I have been a net winner after NINETY SESSIONS. And each session averaged about 1.5 hours each. Do the math --- that's a LOT of playing time, even if you're just playing a few bets. We're talking TENS OF THOUSANDS OF ROLLS .... and I am still a NET WINNER.
Axelwolf: SO PROVE IT

Axelwolf: YOUR TENS OF THOUSANDS IS BARELY OVER 10 THOUSAND

Sure, some guys can go on a hot streak, winning maybe a few weeks in a row. But show me someone who plays a method systematically, and they're still a net winner MONTHS LATER? That's what I've done.
Axelwolf: ME TO

Am I saying math is irrelevant? No. What I AM saying is that I am a net winner after 90 sessions, and no one I know has done that. Please share with me all the net winners you have known after that length of time.

Axelwolf: ME IM UP 91 SESSIONS IN A ROW AVERAGE IS 2HR'S PER SESSION I'M UP 9 UNITS PER SESSION

By the way, the betting sequence I use is an up-as-you-lose progression
KIND OF LIKE MARTINGALE ? YOU'RE THE FIST TO EVER TRY THAT. YOU MUST BE ON TO SOMETHING

Let me ask you something. How many newbies on this forum tout some new-found system as a winner? Lots, right? But how many have come in here and can show you that they average over 7 units per day after 90 days? No one, is my guess. If I'm wrong, then direct me to that thread.
Axelwolf: I JUST DID

A But I'm not directing you to any website, and I'm not selling anything.
Axelwolf: BECAUSE YOU DON'T HAVE ONE YET

All I asked in the beginning was a simple question: How many sessions would you say is a reasonable sample size after which you'd say, "Okay, I think you're onto something."
Axelwolf:AFTER THE CASINOS GO BROKE

And then all people could do is split hairs, like, "Well, tell me what your bets are,"
Axelwolf: I DOUBT YOU EVEN KNOW

Which is fine. I'm not trying to prove anything.
Axelwolf: BECAUSE YOU CAN'T

I finally DID get one person's opinion on what a reasonable sample size is, and I am actually approaching that.
Axelwolf: NOT EVEN CLOSE

Like I said earlier, if I'm still in here several months from now and have moved up safely a few more bet levels as I have already, then that will speak volumes

Axelwolf: YOU WILL BE ASKED FOR PROOF, THEN TOLD ALL THE SAME THINGS INCLUDING TAKE THE CHALLENGE

This is like the big wheel that keeps on turning. The original poster needs to realize that they are being processed like meat through the WOV "I have a system" meat grinder.

Not that there is anything wrong with that process. But maybe try reading EvenBob's first post on this forum where he says "my buddy always beats roulette."

It's like the kid that gets invited to go to a church get together on a wednesday under the guise that there are "free tacos" only to find out that the tacos really suck and all they want to do is talk about religion.

The original poster is thinking he has something to offer and all the other folks who have been through the meat grinder already are anxiously awaiting their turn to initiate the new poster to the joys of math applied to the long term and that soon the OP's time will come to reckon with the long term effects of said math as it predominates over variance .. eventually.

I suggest that you chart out strategies in computer simulations.

For me, once you look at strategies' effects on your bankroll with actual data, you are going to be able to see that line that represents the house edge. Even with 100x odds, it might take a hundred thousand rolls, but you will be able to make out that two cents per roll line downwards EVENTUALLY.

Do something with a higher edge, and the line is more readily apparent much more quickly.

But it always is visible given enough samples.

What you think is long term is most likely still short term, and the day of reckoning could be just around the corner.

Recognizing luck is not a talent that many people are gifted with. The brain wants to think it was not luck!

Quote: Scoop

Like I said earlier, if I'm still in here several months from now and have moved up safely a few more bet levels as I have already, then that will speak volumes.

No, it won't speak volumes. It will in fact, be totally meaningless.

You'd do well to try to understand why.

Quote: outofaces

What you've yet to experience is your catastrophic loss. So far, you've been winning 100% of the time in 90 sessions by increasing on losses and without bumping up near your bankroll. All seems well, but soon you will get your head handed to you. Since you are increasing your units with losses, you do come out ahead the vast majority of the time, it's just that when your loss comes, and it will come, it will likely be in 1 progression and be catastrophically large and probably wipe out your entire bankroll. You need to run a computer simulation to see the ups and downs, or just wait and experience it for yourself and ignore the warnings.

This is wrong, sorry if I did not explain more clearly. I HAVE experienced "catastrophic" losses using this method of play.

And the reason I put "catastrophic" in quotes is because the biggest losses possible with my system are not catastrophic. They do set me back, but they --- so far, after 90 sessions and 125+ hours of play --- have amounted annoying speed bumps, not bankroll-busting mudslides.

Like I said earlier, my steady win rate so far INCLUDES losses, many of them, sometimes a few in a row.

You guys make it sound like I'm playing a straight Martingale, and that I just haven't hit the worst-case scenario yet. Martingale is idiotic, we all know that. You really think I'd be wasting my time with such nonsense?

Appreciate all the skepticism and feedback. I will continue reporting my results. You'll notice I had one of my worst losses in my last session, something a "troller" probably would not admit.

Okay, then you explain it. Explain why it works, and why it is not just good luck. Use math, if you can, because that is what you will need to defend your answer.

There are ways to be a lifetime winner gambling. I'm not referring to counting, or advantage play; I'm talking about within the game.

Imagine that you place one bet in your life, and it wins. You bet, what is it: 985 units? (I don't want to check back, the real number doesn't matter.) Then you stop. Congratulations! You are a lifetime winner! (In fact, you can go around bragging that you have NEVER lost!)

Now imagine. Extrapolate, imagining that that one wager of 985 units actually consists of over 10,000 minor wagers, all adding up to one wager that won.

Would you say in the first case that there is something strange going on? If not, then why would you think so in the second case? If you made 9999 losing wagers, and lost 985 units, then doubled up on the last one and won, you would have the same result that you have now.

Quote: AxelWolf

IM UP 91 SESSIONS IN A ROW AVERAGE IS 2HR'S PER SESSION I'M UP 9 UNITS PER SESSION

You are? Then you're now free to answer all the questions that have been lobbed at me, such as what you're doing and how you can explain it.

Or were you being sarcastic? Your numbers are so eerily similar to mine, that I can't tell.

The last session of 50 units was a nice "small catastrophe", but not the big one. You're still dodging it. I realize your method is secret and not a Martingale progression, but you are increasing units on losses thinking things have to turn around in your favor. It's quite the opposite, things will get much worse in a very sudden fashion. Keep updating, it's interesting!

Quote: outofaces

The last session of 50 units was a nice "small catastrophe", but not the big one. You're still dodging it. I realize your method is secret and not a Martingale progression, but you are increasing units on losses thinking things have to turn around in your favor. It's quite the opposite, things will get much worse in a very sudden fashion. Keep updating, it's interesting!

For a large catastrophe, I'd have to suffer about 10 of those 50-unit losses in a row. And I'd STILL be ahead, actually. And in order to suffer that 50-unit loss, by the way, I had to lose my progression THREE times in a single session.

My progression breaks down and loses about once every 12-15 times. So having that happen three times in a single session was a big deal, but entirely within the norm of reasonable. Having it happen TEN times in a row, however, is unlikely indeed. Imagine placing a bet that was 12-1 in your FAVOR ... and losing that ten times in a row. Not very likely.

Didn't get to play today and tomorrow is a "maybe," but after that I'll be playing every day this week.

I'll actually be relieved if this thing breaks down like so many are predicting, because honestly, casinos are just sad, lonely places, aren't they? Every time I leave one I feel like I need to be hosed down. It's heartbreaking to see people in there.

Quick story about that: last week I saw a guy I've seen often at this one casino. He looked about 30 years old, always wore a dress shirt and jeans. He bets big and takes losses hard. I once saw him lose $4,000 in about 15 minutes. After the last 7-out, he slammed his fist into the rack and yelled an F-bomb. Just brutal. A couple days later, I saw him buying in for a LOT less.

Fast forward one week later, and I see two guys with badges around their neck like security personnel standing behind him with their hands behind their back. After the next 7-out they introduce themselves and ask him for I.D. They hauled him off! I left the casino about twenty minutes later, and he was sitting on a bench with his head down, cigarette between his fingers, various cops and authorities surrounding him. Three cop cars waited in the valet area. Looked like he might have been waiting for his attorney or something.

Him sitting there was a pretty sad sight. Have no idea what they were after, but it did not look good.

I realize this will not help matters with most of you, but below is a graph from the spreadsheet I'm using to track my results.

Those are my 90 sessions so far. Each circle is a single day's session in dollars won or lost. You can see how steady the upward swing is. However, that long break-even dip was actually pretty frustrating. I nearly gave up during that stretch.

The graph plots my results as if I played the same unit the entire time. I have not done that -- I have been moving up, which presents an even more dramatic-looking graph --- but I thought showing you this one is more representative of how it plays out at a flat unit level.

Are you getting rated for comps, or are you keeping your play on the down-low?

Quote: Scoop

I'll actually be relieved if this thing breaks down like so many are predicting, because honestly, casinos are just sad, lonely places, aren't they? Every time I leave one I feel like I need to be hosed down. It's heartbreaking to see people in there.

Quick story about that: last week I saw a guy I've seen often at this one casino. He looked about 30 years old, always wore a dress shirt and jeans. He bets big and takes losses hard. I once saw him lose $4,000 in about 15 minutes. After the last 7-out, he slammed his fist into the rack and yelled an F-bomb. Just brutal. A couple days later, I saw him buying in for a LOT less.

Fast forward one week later, and I see two guys with badges around their neck like security personnel standing behind him with their hands behind their back. After the next 7-out they introduce themselves and ask him for I.D. They hauled him off! I left the casino about twenty minutes later, and he was sitting on a bench with his head down, cigarette between his fingers, various cops and authorities surrounding him. Three cop cars waited in the valet area. Looked like he might have been waiting for his attorney or something.

Him sitting there was a pretty sad sight. Have no idea what they were after, but it did not look good.

Sounds like embezzlement.

I dunno, Scoop, most players are casual fun seekers like my wife and me. We take a couple bucks, we play, we dine, we get a free room. Maybe we see a show. It's not working, so it's good. I get what you mean, though. It helps to not read too much into it. Folks in casinos are all into doing their own thing, it's not an overly social place, even at the tables people don't like having their concentration broken or their walls penetrated too much beyond "'Scuse me." We just ride the wave, we're not looking for anything deep, just a good gaming experience. Deal me a clean game, not too fast and not too slow... give us a clean room and decent food and we'll be back.

Quote: Thermos

Are you getting rated for comps, or are you keeping your play on the down-low?

Funny you should ask. There are about five casinos in my area. I totally wanted to keep everything on the down-low because I have no interest in comps ... BUT ... at the casino I go to most frequently, they kept after me about it, and I didn't enjoy the increasingly chilly reception I seemed to get from the personnel there because they seemed to take it personally that I wouldn't give in and get rated with their member card or whatever they call it.

So one day I finally gave in. I regret it now, but to hear everyone on this forum tell it, I have nothing to worry about because everyone is so convinced that no one can systematically win long-term at craps, that I would have nothing to worry about in terms of getting banned.

Do you think that's true? I am now buying in for $700 per session, more than double my previous buy-in amount. I really can't tell if they're noticing how steadily I'm winning, but just in case I am spreading my play around to the other area casinos and I am refusing to get rated everywhere else. At my current pace, I'll be buying in at the table for $1,500 and then $3,000 a few months from now --- wouldn't they get suspicious about that?

I'm also trying to get a little visually demonstrative on the times I DO lose so that they take notice, and I'm also not coloring up at the table when I'm done on the days I win.

Not sure if this is something I should be concerned about. I mean, would they really track all my bets and keep track of how much I'm winning session after session ... and would they really walk up to me one day and tell me I can't play anymore because I'm just "too good?" I suppose I could threaten to teach all the regulars there what I'm doing, but I'm sure very few people would want to play this method. Or COULD play this method. It's not very much fun and it takes a lot of discipline. And it gets a bit stressful, too.

Anyway, the whole "down-low" thing is very much on my mind. Sometimes I think they could care less, that they are so convinced no one can win long-term that I have nothing to worry about. And then other times it feels like they're noticing how I steadily accumulate chips while the other players get blown out.

Ack, paranoia! A good problem, I suppose.

The other thing that occurred to me is that even if I WASN'T getting rated, they could still track my play if I was appearing regularly. So maybe it's not a big deal.

Appreciate any advice you have on this ....

Quote: Mosca

Sounds like embezzlement.

I dunno, Scoop, most players are casual fun seekers like my wife and me. We take a couple bucks, we play, we dine, we get a free room. Maybe we see a show. It's not working, so it's good. I get what you mean, though. It helps to not read too much into it. Folks in casinos are all into doing their own thing, it's not an overly social place, even at the tables people don't like having their concentration broken or their walls penetrated too much beyond "'Scuse me." We just ride the wave, we're not looking for anything deep, just a good gaming experience. Deal me a clean game, not too fast and not too slow... give us a clean room and decent food and we'll be back.

Yes, embezzlement occurred to me, too. I actually felt sorry for the guy --- he looked like a nice guy and it was heartbreaking to see how addicted this guy was. He always pressed everything to the max and took it so hard when a 7-out came.

You're totally right about most people not wanting to really socialize at the dice table! I try and make connections, but most are very guarded. It's kinda tense that way. Part of the problem, I think, is that everyone is standing so close to each other, nearly rubbing shoulders, and that's a little awkward. Plus, you can see everyone's chips and how they're doing. You can't ever really joke with someone who's losing.

I do banter with the dealers, though, when I can. But I feel a little self-conscious doing that because I play such a "dumb," unconventional style of play. For instance, I don't take odds on my do-side bets, which everyone assumes is idiotic. Smartest bet in the casino, right? Take as much odds as you can, right? Um, no. For one thing, every time you take odds, your playing a bet whose odds are now AGAINST you. Sure, I realize the "pro-odds" argument, but what I'm doing is working and I care more about profit than playing. I'm not gonna fix what ain't broke.