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tringlomane
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July 7th, 2013 at 9:44:30 PM permalink
Quote: Bhappy

Wizard, I know you are a gaming expert. However, it seems that days of EPROM chips are gone. I have read numerous places that all the PAR sheets are pre-loaded on new machines. During set up phase they just pick one. A casino with 3,000-4,000 machines would have hell of a time securely storing all those chips.



Yeah, it depends on how "new" the machine is. In Revel's case, it's pretty likely they could be remotely changed since they are the "new kid on the block". Server-supported slots are legal in New Jersey, and "copied" Nevada standards over this. Minimum 4 minutes of idle time for any slot machine change.

http://www.lexisnexis.com/hottopics/njcode/

New Jersey Administrative Code § 13:69E-1.28V Server supported system technical standards

(r) Prior to implementing any change to a server supported slot machine the following must occur:

1. For at least four minutes prior to implementing any change, the slot machine will be required to be in idle mode, with no errors or tilt conditions, no play and no credits on the machine; and

2. During implementation of the change, the slot machine on which the game is offered must be disabled and rendered unplayable for at least 60 seconds. During that time, a conspicuous message stating that the game configuration is being changed must be continuously displayed either on the slot machine's video screen or in another manner approved by the Division.
Wizard
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July 7th, 2013 at 9:56:09 PM permalink
Here are the results for a 400-unit bankroll and a 95% Double Diamond game. You may wish to compare this to my table for an 85% game and 90% game.


Goal Avg win Prob success
200 116.15 34.76%
210 116.91 33.69%
220 117.56 32.68%
230 118.11 31.72%
240 118.57 30.81%
250 118.93 29.94%
260 119.20 29.11%
270 119.41 28.31%
280 119.55 27.55%
290 119.61 26.80%
300 119.61 26.09%
310 119.55 25.39%
320 119.45 24.72%
330 119.30 24.08%
340 119.11 23.47%
350 118.89 22.90%
360 118.65 22.36%
370 118.36 21.84%
380 118.06 21.35%
390 117.73 20.88%
400 117.37 20.43%


So, the optimal goal is 300 units with an expected win of 119.61 units. At $200 a bet that is an expected win of $23,922.

Stay tuned for the 98% game.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
tringlomane
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July 7th, 2013 at 10:05:58 PM permalink
LOL for the umpteenth time, Revel.
kvitlekh
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July 7th, 2013 at 10:50:31 PM permalink
How can you tell what the return of a reel slot is?its not like they have paytables as in vp...
AlanMendelson
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July 7th, 2013 at 10:53:23 PM permalink
Quote: kvitlekh

How can you tell what the return of a reel slot is?its not like they have paytables as in vp...



You, the consumer/gambler can't tell. the return is, as you already know, in the number of virtual stops. While the reels (video or physical) are random, it is the number of "virtual stops" that determines the payback.
tringlomane
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July 8th, 2013 at 12:00:12 AM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

You, the consumer/gambler can't tell. the return is, as you already know, in the number of virtual stops. While the reels (video or physical) are random, it is the number of "virtual stops" that determines the payback.



Can't tell exactly without significant data collection. But many gamblers (~80% in this example) can sense the difference between an 85% and a 98% machine even after 40 spins.

http://www.nh.gov/gsc/calendar/documents/20091117_harrigan_dixon.pdf (page 25)

And the 98% game is probably testing Mike's computer(s) (as it mathematically should), or he called it an ~early night.
fivespot
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July 8th, 2013 at 12:42:22 AM permalink
Quote: tringlomane

Can't tell exactly without significant data collection. But many gamblers (~80% in this example) can sense the difference between an 85% and a 98% machine even after 40 spins.

http://www.nh.gov/gsc/calendar/documents/20091117_harrigan_dixon.pdf (page 25)


This would be a fascinating result if true, but I don't believe it; it seems impossible. Looking at the source material, it appears that Harrigan and Dixon (2009) are misinterpreting Haw (2008). They write:
Quote:

However, given the wide variation in payback percentage (85% vs. 98%) of the different
versions of the games approved in Ontario, it is not beyond the realm of possibility that
an experienced player could discriminate between a loose machine (i.e., a 98% version)
and a machine with a much lower payback percentage (i.e., an 85% version). Indeed Haw
(2008) showed in a laboratory setting that a subset of his participants were sensitive to
payback percentage – after sampling two machines for 40 spins each, 80% of this
subsample chose to gamble on the machine with the higher payback percentage.


But if you read the cited paper, his experiment involved two identical simulated slot machines. He was examining whether participants' choice of machines was related to the payback they had received during earlier practice, not the theoretical payback rate. In other words, unsurprisingly, some of his participants chose the machine they'd gotten lucky on before, and few sought out the machine where they'd been less lucky.

This says nothing about whether participants can distinguish a 85% machine from a 98% machine. I would lay heavy odds that if confronted with an unfamiliar slot machine and allowed to play 40 spins, even an experienced slot player could not determine whether the theo was 85% or 98% with, say, more than 60% accuracy. I'd be surprised if they could manage 55%. For an undergrad who may have never touched a slot machine, like Haw's participants, I'd take the under on 53%.
fivespot
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July 8th, 2013 at 12:59:49 AM permalink
Quote: camapl

Wizard, I am curious about your method and that of any of the others who run simulations. Do you write a program? If so, what programming language do you use and why?


This is a very easy simulation to write; you don't need to code any of the details about video poker, just the relative likelihood of different outcomes, and those are already provided to you by Wizard's site or by any standard VP software. If you're interested in brushing the rust off your coding skills, I'd encourage you to write it as an exercise.

Any language will work fine. If pressed for a recommendation, I tend to suggest Python for beginners as it combines ease of learning, conceptual simplicity, and enough power to not be limiting as you gain experience. I seem to recall Wizard uses C or C++, which is better for performance, but this particular application doesn't require high performance.
tringlomane
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July 8th, 2013 at 2:18:34 AM permalink
Quote: fivespot

This would be a fascinating result if true, but I don't believe it; it seems impossible. Looking at the source material, it appears that Harrigan and Dixon (2009) are misinterpreting Haw (2008). They write:

But if you read the cited paper, his experiment involved two identical simulated slot machines. He was examining whether participants' choice of machines was related to the payback they had received during earlier practice, not the theoretical payback rate. In other words, unsurprisingly, some of his participants chose the machine they'd gotten lucky on before, and few sought out the machine where they'd been less lucky.

This says nothing about whether participants can distinguish a 85% machine from a 98% machine. I would lay heavy odds that if confronted with an unfamiliar slot machine and allowed to play 40 spins, even an experienced slot player could not determine whether the theo was 85% or 98% with, say, more than 60% accuracy. I'd be surprised if they could manage 55%. For an undergrad who may have never touched a slot machine, like Haw's participants, I'd take the under on 53%.



Considering the data written in cited paper, you're definitely right that it isn't comparing an 85% and 98% machine. They say 80% of the participants moved to the "better paying machine" in their test phase, but the overall payback between their data between the units was within 1%, so yeah, I struggle to believe that wasn't just pure luck. And I definitely misread Harrigan/Dixon to begin with :(, they definitely didn't claim the cited paper tested an 85% vs. a 98% machine, they just claimed that 80% of subjects picked the better machine that they experienced in that study (but with the tiny actual payback differences of < 1%, I also struggle to believe this result is significant).

This all reminds me why reading academic papers, especially when you have "had a few", is usually a bad idea. If they tested them like I incorrectly claimed they did with a wide payback difference (85% vs. 98%), I take over 60% would pick the right one with even 40 spins. It would probably be a close race though as you are right, 40 spins isn't very much. But I sense the version differences quite strongly myself by having WMS/IGT games for free on my PC (closer to 98%) and playing the exact same games in the casino for small amounts of money (closer to 85%).

Very good catch though; academic papers love to cram so much into so little. Mistakes/misinterpretations/poor reading comprehension are pretty easy to do, and minor errors will often will slide by any peer review.
teliot
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July 8th, 2013 at 2:34:00 AM permalink
Quote: camapl

Wizard, I am curious about your method and that of any of the others who run simulations. Do you write a program? If so, what programming language do you use and why? If not, do you utilize some sort of packaged software? Do any of the VP analyzer packages out there include a simulator? If so, does it lend itself to this type of analysis or does it provide some different functionality?

I was hoping someone might be interested in analyzing certain VP games WRT this promotion as a comparison to the JOB and DDB already done. Any takers?


I wrote my code in C on an Ubuntu Linux platform, all code custom from the bottom up. You wont find off-the-shelf software that does loss rebate analysis. I am not interested in analyzing any other vp specific to this promo, sorry.
Climate Casino: https://climatecasino.net/climate-casino/
LossRebate
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July 8th, 2013 at 2:58:27 AM permalink
Quote: camapl


Wizard, I am curious about your method and that of any of the others who run simulations. Do you write a program? If so, what programming language do you use and why?



Jeez, this is one of the simplest programming problems an AP could tackle. A single-purpose program would be 40 lines of C code, and would run millions of trials per minute. Add some code to loop and to format output in CSV so you can open the results as a spreadsheet, and you are still looking at an hour of work.

This is really trivial compared to VP or BJ analyzers.
dipce
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July 8th, 2013 at 3:34:44 AM permalink
this promotion does not have the goal of making money in the short run. The goal of the promotion is to gain a customer base from which they will make money in the long run. The problem is that Borgata provides too good of an experience for the gambler. Revel will in fact gain some customers. But they will lose money every month from September 2013 to June 2014.

Quote: AlanMendelson

Is there anyone who would care to respond to my post about how much money the Revel will make from this promotion? Or maybe it's a question for CasinoBoss ??

"I have never seen a situation so dismal that a policeman couldn't make it worse." Brendan Behan
Pokeraddict
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July 8th, 2013 at 6:16:53 AM permalink
http://www.uspoker.com/blog/players-accuse-revel-of-not-honoring-100000-loss-rebate-promotion/4647/

Here is my article on the Revel loss rebate debacle. The Revel media relations department referred me to someone that never responded. I gave them six days from first contact to reply before going to press so Revel had ample opportunity to give their side.

I am sure some here will find items I left out but this article is for those that do not have this 700-post thread as their reference. If Revel responds I will update the article or publish a follow up.
dipce
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July 8th, 2013 at 6:50:51 AM permalink
nice article. Congratulations!!

Quote: Pokeraddict

http://www.uspoker.com/blog/players-accuse-revel-of-not-honoring-100000-loss-rebate-promotion/4647/

Here is my article on the Revel loss rebate debacle. The Revel media relations department referred me to someone that never responded. I gave them six days from first contact to reply before going to press so Revel had ample opportunity to give their side.

I am sure some here will find items I left out but this article is for those that do not have this 700-post thread as their reference. If Revel responds I will update the article or publish a follow up.

"I have never seen a situation so dismal that a policeman couldn't make it worse." Brendan Behan
LossRebate
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July 8th, 2013 at 7:14:17 AM permalink
Quote: Pokeraddict

http://www.uspoker.com/blog/players-accuse-revel-of-not-honoring-100000-loss-rebate-promotion/4647/

Here is my article on the Revel loss rebate debacle.



Did you look at the terms of the promotion? Isn't this filed with the DGE?
boymimbo
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July 8th, 2013 at 7:17:46 AM permalink
I've thought about this promotion and where Revel went wrong.

Clearly, the promotion was to target folks who drive to AC or live in the AC area who are regulars. The fact that they have to come back and use 1/20th of their freeplay every week targets locals. The goal was to get them to switch from whatever AC casino that they were playing at to Revel.

Someone at Revel must have realized that blowback of offerring a $100,000 limit on the rebate and anyone with a calculator could figure the expected value of the player advantage to an AP using their most advantageous games. Casinos are very knowlegeable that APs exist. Nevertheless, they went ahead with the promotion and devised a list of players who would be excluded from the promotion if they showed up. They may have gotten the list from a consultant who has worked at other AC casinos or bought the list from the casinos themselves. I don't have a problem with Revel banning less than 100 known APs from taking advantage of a promotion and they probably have the T&Cs in their promotion to withdraw the promotions from certain players at certain times.

That said, the Revel got way too greedy in this one. A $10,000 limit would have been more appropriate. A $4,000 PA over 20 weeks would have been an acceptable loss for AP and would have dissuaded non-locals from flying in and taking advantage of the promotion. $500 FP every week is certainly doable and when they take into the account travel/food/hotel revenue from the customer it would have been worthwhile to the clients (locals / drive in population) to play.

The Revel also was wrong to let the players on the list play and then cancel them from the promotion. Likely however they will be forced to honor the freeplay for those who played and lost, advantage players or not, and the gaming board I think will side with the players. Revel will have to honor those losses as part of the promotion, but they certainly have the right to take the promotion away from a subset of players.

Revel should have also taken the eligibility for the promotion from certain machines. The easiest way would be to slap signs on the machines not earning the promotion (provided that their computer system could handle it). This would include the high limit VP and Ultimate X machines.

Revelcould have also limited the loss limit for each day to $10,000 or $5,000 making players come in each day to lose the amount.

They should have targeted another promotion to whales with personal offers available only to them.

There are alot of people who monitor this board who have just shown up now to comment. Revel is reading this as I suspect all of the casinos are. Most APs are probably reading this too.

The end result of this is that when I visit AC, I will walk inside Revel and never bet a dime. My play will be going to CZR and Borgata.
----- You want the truth! You can't handle the truth!
Feanor
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July 8th, 2013 at 11:03:12 AM permalink
Kate Zernike is the writer for the Times who put out the article on this promotion. I just sent her an email (easy to do online) asking for her to do a follow-up on the controversy surrounding revocations. I think anyone with a stake in this should do the same. Bad publicity in US Poker is one thing. Bad publicity in the NY Times is quite another.
AlanMendelson
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July 8th, 2013 at 11:48:22 AM permalink
Quote: dipce

this promotion does not have the goal of making money in the short run. The goal of the promotion is to gain a customer base from which they will make money in the long run. The problem is that Borgata provides too good of an experience for the gambler. Revel will in fact gain some customers. But they will lose money every month from September 2013 to June 2014.



Thank you for responding.

I don't think the Revel is going to lose money on the promotion. I can't think of any way that a casino giving free play based on losses can lose anything.

Now, I am not defending Revel as far as telling some players they will not get their free play after losing. That's wrong. They should have blocked players in advance.
Bhappy
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July 8th, 2013 at 11:51:34 AM permalink
Quote: LossRebate

Quote: camapl


Wizard, I am curious about your method and that of any of the others who run simulations. Do you write a program? If so, what programming language do you use and why?



Jeez, this is one of the simplest programming problems an AP could tackle. A single-purpose program would be 40 lines of C code, and would run millions of trials per minute. Add some code to loop and to format output in CSV so you can open the results as a spreadsheet, and you are still looking at an hour of work.

This is really trivial compared to VP or BJ analyzers.



does it consist of Monte Carlo simulation?
Wizard
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July 8th, 2013 at 12:38:50 PM permalink
Here are the results for a 400-unit bankroll and a 98% Double Diamond game. You may wish to compare this to my table for an 85%, 90%, and 95% games.


Goal Avg win Prob success
300 167.04 38.13%
310 168.30 37.41%
320 169.45 36.69%
330 170.54 36.01%
340 171.56 35.35%
350 172.49 34.73%
360 173.35 34.12%
370 174.16 33.54%
380 174.91 32.98%
390 175.58 32.44%
400 176.22 31.92%
410 176.83 31.43%
420 177.35 30.94%
430 177.84 30.48%
440 178.29 30.04%
450 178.71 29.61%
460 179.09 29.19%
470 179.44 28.78%
480 179.74 28.38%
490 180.01 28.00%
500 180.26 27.63%
510 180.48 27.27%
520 180.70 26.91%
530 180.86 26.57%
540 181.00 26.23%
550 181.12 25.90%
560 181.22 25.58%
570 181.30 25.26%
580 181.36 24.95%
590 181.40 24.65%
600 181.43 24.36%
610 181.47 24.07%
620 181.44 23.79%
630 181.42 23.51%
640 181.37 23.23%
650 181.31 22.96%
660 181.24 22.70%
670 181.15 22.43%
680 181.03 22.17%
690 180.90 21.92%
700 180.76 21.66%


So, the optimal goal is 610 units with an expected win of 181.47 units. At $200 a bet that is an expected win of $36,294.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
Wizard
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July 8th, 2013 at 12:46:49 PM permalink
Quote: Pokeraddict

http://www.uspoker.com/blog/players-accuse-revel-of-not-honoring-100000-loss-rebate-promotion/4647/.



Good article! Thanks for drawing more attention on the Revel reneging on the deal. They have a legitimate reason with card pullers but I hope the players who lost clean will fight back.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
DJTeddyBear
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July 8th, 2013 at 12:52:08 PM permalink
I thought card pulling no longer worked...
I invented a few casino games. Info: http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ ————————————————————————————————————— Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
tringlomane
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July 8th, 2013 at 12:56:59 PM permalink
Quote: Bhappy

Quote: LossRebate

Quote: camapl


Wizard, I am curious about your method and that of any of the others who run simulations. Do you write a program? If so, what programming language do you use and why?



Jeez, this is one of the simplest programming problems an AP could tackle. A single-purpose program would be 40 lines of C code, and would run millions of trials per minute. Add some code to loop and to format output in CSV so you can open the results as a spreadsheet, and you are still looking at an hour of work.

This is really trivial compared to VP or BJ analyzers.



does it consist of Monte Carlo simulation?



This is what my trivial video poker simulator does. I get the expected frequencies and payouts of winning hands from the WOO site, and then let code's RNG go to work to simulate how many ever hands or until I go broke, etc.
AlanMendelson
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July 8th, 2013 at 1:10:47 PM permalink
Card pulling does not work on modern machines.

You have to step back and think why some players had their cards revoked and were made ineligible for the rebates.

Consider all statements made on the Internet as... Internet statements.

I'm not defending this casino, but I am just suggesting that everyone take a step back.
dipce
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July 8th, 2013 at 1:19:33 PM permalink
the promotion is not only about refunding slot losses, which they may or not do. I have it in writing that "promotional free slot play will not be included in the calculation to determine actual loss." But they may do something a little different. Beyond that they are matching AC casino slot offers, and they could lose money doing this!

Quote: AlanMendelson

Thank you for responding.

I don't think the Revel is going to lose money on the promotion. I can't think of any way that a casino giving free play based on losses can lose anything.

Now, I am not defending Revel as far as telling some players they will not get their free play after losing. That's wrong. They should have blocked players in advance.

"I have never seen a situation so dismal that a policeman couldn't make it worse." Brendan Behan
DRich
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July 8th, 2013 at 1:44:12 PM permalink
Quote: DJTeddyBear

I thought card pulling no longer worked...



Card pulling no longer works during the middle of a game on most systems. The difference with Ultimate X is that the current game is over, and the multiplier is applied to the next game. Card pulling definitely works in this scenario on all of the systems that I am aware of.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
AlanMendelson
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July 8th, 2013 at 1:48:14 PM permalink
Do you really think that casinos lose money on the line item of gaming?

They lose money when they have a lot of debt, when they have high costs for infrastructure and for construction projects, and for entertainment... but do they lose money on machines and on tables?

I guess there is the exception when some high roller comes in and gets lucky at very high limits. But otherwise, does a casino really worry about video poker at $25 or craps or slots?

And when someone goes to a casino and hits Megabucks, it's not the casino that pays -- it's IGT that pays.

(Blackjack is not included.)
AlanMendelson
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July 8th, 2013 at 1:49:15 PM permalink
Quote: DRich

Card pulling no longer works during the middle of a game on most systems. The difference with Ultimate X is that the current game is over, and the multiplier is applied to the next game. Card pulling definitely works in this scenario on all of the systems that I am aware of.



This makes sense.
Twirdman
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July 8th, 2013 at 2:22:02 PM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

Thank you for responding.

I don't think the Revel is going to lose money on the promotion. I can't think of any way that a casino giving free play based on losses can lose anything.

Now, I am not defending Revel as far as telling some players they will not get their free play after losing. That's wrong. They should have blocked players in advance.



Its real easy to see how a casino can lose money on a loss rebate program. Aside from the obvious math already state consider this scenerio you have 2 players at baccarat each bets 100,000 one on player one on banker. One wins other one loses. If they refunded money of loser he just grinds it out on a machine and say gets 98% of it back. So you won 2000 from him and lost 100,000 from other guy less commision if banker wins. The problem is your seeing it as a bonus on losing and you don't want to lose so it seems silly but you have to realize you do get to keep winnings. In gambling you want to win but you also need to make sure you never lose to much, and since you will have days of loses getting money back on those is really useful.
Nareed
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July 8th, 2013 at 3:03:26 PM permalink
Quote: Twirdman

So you won 2000 from him and lost 100,000 from other guy less commision if banker wins.



Or maybe $4,000 if there's a rare tie ;)

Seriously, it's not unusual for business to have money-losing promotions in order to lure potential customers. What is unusual is the amount Revel is willing to rebate. They may be betting even locals won't be able to make the 20 return visits to use up the free play. Not as a manes to make money, but to ameliorate their losses.

Usually, too, casinos don't gamble.

The $100,000.- limit may be a bit of a publicity stunt. How many gamblers can afford it? And how many of those can recoup the loss with the free-play rebate over 20 weeks? But the number should look good on billboards and fliers. Certainly it will draw attention. Kind fo like the defunt 1,000X on craps the Riviera did. But then that did die.
Donald Trump is a fucking criminal
tringlomane
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July 8th, 2013 at 3:10:46 PM permalink
Quote: Nareed

How many gamblers can afford it? And how many of those can recoup the loss with the free-play rebate over 20 weeks?



Probably enough to put Revel into a heap of hurt if they would have freely reimbursed the losses in free play as originally outlined in promo.
Mission146
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July 8th, 2013 at 3:33:12 PM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson



I'm not defending this casino, but I am just suggesting that everyone take a step back.



I personally talked to someone from the casino that said it would be all slots and VP games that they had as of that moment, specifically asked about $25 VP, and I was told yes. It is not the case. The statement was a lie.

That's all I need to know about them. Everything else could be false and it would change my opinion on them zero.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
Bhappy
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July 8th, 2013 at 3:36:06 PM permalink
Quote: Mission146

I personally talked to someone from the casino that said it would be all slots and VP games that they had as of that moment, specifically asked about $25 VP, and I was told yes. It is not the case. The statement was a lie.



come on mission, we have talked about that in detail. Let us not make mountain out of a mole-hill. If you had received that response from higher up in food chain e.g. Slot Director, you have right to whine.
Mission146
Mission146
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July 8th, 2013 at 3:40:39 PM permalink
Quote: Bhappy

come on mission, we have talked about that in detail. Let us not make mountain out of a mole-hill. If you had received that response from higher up in food chain e.g. Slot Director, you have right to whine.



If you are in customer service, you speak for that business, from top to bottom. Besides, she also went and asked my question to someone else, it could have been the slot director for all I know. I've wanted to talk to a slot director before and I can't because the slot director is, "On the floor." I've never had a problem talking to a slot director/supervisor anywhere else if that is the person I asked to speak to. They've had to call me back, on occasion, but I've never been flatly told that I can't talk to that person.

So, there you go, that's as up in the food chain as I was going to get. I wanted to speak to a slot director, both times I called.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
Bhappy
Bhappy
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July 8th, 2013 at 3:43:14 PM permalink
Quote: Mission146


So, there you go, that's as up in the food chain as I was going to get. I wanted to speak to a slot director, both times I called.



Still, you are trying to make something out of nothing.
fubster
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July 8th, 2013 at 3:47:12 PM permalink
Quote: Bhappy

Still, you are trying to make something out of nothing.


That's a really childish way of looking at the situation.
MississippiLady
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July 8th, 2013 at 3:48:50 PM permalink
This entire thread should be deleted for the good of America.
Mission146
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July 8th, 2013 at 3:54:14 PM permalink
You are certainly entitled to that opinion, BHappy, and for the record I rather enjoy you and your posts, but neither of us is going to sway the opinion of the other on this issue.

Perhaps I have my bar set too high for the expectations I have for the customer service representatives employed by a business, but there have been many businesses that have exceeded my admittedly high expectations and even more that have met them.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
Aahz
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July 8th, 2013 at 4:02:08 PM permalink
Quote: Twirdman

Its real easy to see how a casino can lose money on a loss rebate program. Aside from the obvious math already state consider this scenerio you have 2 players at baccarat each bets 100,000 one on player one on banker. One wins other one loses. If they refunded money of loser he just grinds it out on a machine and say gets 98% of it back. So you won 2000 from him and lost 100,000 from other guy less commision if banker wins.



Which may explain why a casino that only allows two people to be customers would be a bad idea.

It doesn't matter how much Revel loses to the player in your example, there are thousands of other customers losing money all over the rest of the casino to make up for it.

Has ANY casino, ANYWHERE, ever gone broke because of a single player? A single team? 100 players?
pokerface
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July 8th, 2013 at 4:16:58 PM permalink
Quote: Aahz


Has ANY casino, ANYWHERE, ever gone broke because of a single player? A single team? 100 players?



I think the answer is definitely YES in the case of Revel.
Revel will go broke because of a single team, the Revel management team.
winning streaks come and go, losing streak never ends.
Nareed
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July 8th, 2013 at 4:19:37 PM permalink
Quote: Aahz

Has ANY casino, ANYWHERE, ever gone broke because of a single player? A single team? 100 players?



In the original Mission: Impossible! series, a casino does just that :)

Of course, it was a very small casino. And the team cheated (for a good cause).
Donald Trump is a fucking criminal
ShiftyRicky
ShiftyRicky
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July 8th, 2013 at 4:57:19 PM permalink
Quote: Pokeraddict

http://www.uspoker.com/blog/players-accuse-revel-of-not-honoring-100000-loss-rebate-promotion/4647/




Great article!!!
"Does the sign outside still say Casino?...okay then"
Frogger
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July 8th, 2013 at 5:17:28 PM permalink
Quote: Aahz


Has ANY casino, ANYWHERE, ever gone broke because of a single player? A single team? 100 players?



Data in Star Trek TNG
7star4now
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July 8th, 2013 at 5:30:53 PM permalink
I've been reading the accounts here from those who obviously have a personal vested interest in this promo which in my opinion provide valuable first hand information as to the pitfalls involved for the purposes of this forum.

What I don't get is the "content" of the poster "Bhappy" who sounds eerily similar to a poster on the TA forum ("UK....") who continues to shill for Revel sans his original motivational pretext that Revel was a "non-smoking" casino.

Newsflashes for "Bhappy" /"UK":

1.Revel is a SMOKING casino
2. The reason Howard Hughes has not shown at your poker games is because he is dead
3. In a decade, Revel will STILL be a SMOKING casino (or a $2billion boarded up ghost casino) and Howard will still be dead.
WRX
WRX
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July 8th, 2013 at 6:52:50 PM permalink
Quote: Aahz

Has ANY casino, ANYWHERE, ever gone broke because of a single player? A single team? 100 players?



Yes. Dieppe, France, 1974, to Al Francesco and Bill Erb.
camapl
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July 8th, 2013 at 7:05:26 PM permalink
Quote: fivespot

This is a very easy simulation to write; you don't need to code any of the details about video poker, just the relative likelihood of different outcomes, and those are already provided to you by Wizard's site or by any standard VP software. If you're interested in brushing the rust off your coding skills, I'd encourage you to write it as an exercise.

Any language will work fine. If pressed for a recommendation, I tend to suggest Python for beginners as it combines ease of learning, conceptual simplicity, and enough power to not be limiting as you gain experience. I seem to recall Wizard uses C or C++, which is better for performance, but this particular application doesn't require high performance.



fivespot, thanks for the info and the suggestion! I will look into Python. I think I needed a nudge, and you did just that. I appreciate the vote of confidence!

Quote: teliot

I wrote my code in C on an Ubuntu Linux platform, all code custom from the bottom up. You wont find off-the-shelf software that does loss rebate analysis. I am not interested in analyzing any other vp specific to this promo, sorry.



Fair enough! Given your aptitude and the simplicity of this exercise, I don't blame you. Cheers!

Quote: LossRebate

Jeez, this is one of the simplest programming problems an AP could tackle. A single-purpose program would be 40 lines of C code, and would run millions of trials per minute. Add some code to loop and to format output in CSV so you can open the results as a spreadsheet, and you are still looking at an hour of work.

This is really trivial compared to VP or BJ analyzers.



Got it! Would it be safe to assume that similar analysis for slots and keno would be just as simple? Just a matter of defining the various outcomes (that we would find in a combinatorial analysis of the return and/or ROR)?

Quote: tringlomane

This is what my trivial video poker simulator does. I get the expected frequencies and payouts of winning hands from the WOO site, and then let code's RNG go to work to simulate how many ever hands or until I go broke, etc.



Sounds pretty simple. Thanks for the input tringlomane! As I said above, I will look into Python. Down the line, I suspect I will have a need for a language that is more efficient with more difficult analyses. Is the necessary software relatively easy to find and affordable? Also, are there versions that run well in Windows, and do they retain most of their efficiencies? I realize programmers tend to use Unix/Linux - just wondering if PC's lose that much functionality... Thanks!
Expectation is the root of all heartache.
fubster
fubster
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July 8th, 2013 at 7:08:21 PM permalink
Quote: Frogger

Data in Star Trek TNG


To be fair, Data didn't break the casino, he merely won enough to buy it.
camapl
camapl
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July 8th, 2013 at 7:28:41 PM permalink
Quote: Aahz

Has ANY casino, ANYWHERE, ever gone broke because of a single player? A single team? 100 players?



Sure, if you consider a gaming table's owner committing suicide...

The Suicide Table, Virginia City, NV
Expectation is the root of all heartache.
MississippiLady
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July 8th, 2013 at 7:34:25 PM permalink


Data hittin' those Craps tables...
Bhappy
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July 8th, 2013 at 7:41:06 PM permalink
Quote: Mission146

You are certainly entitled to that opinion, BHappy, and for the record I rather enjoy you and your posts, but neither of us is going to sway the opinion of the other on this issue.

Perhaps I have my bar set too high for the expectations I have for the customer service representatives employed by a business, but there have been many businesses that have exceeded my admittedly high expectations and even more that have met them.



Thank you Mission. I am sure you have valid reasons to dislike Revel. However, if you latch on to petty responses given by $10/hr employee or her supervisior @ $15/hr, you are trivializing your reasons.
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