Lottery scratch-offs Vs Table Games at a casino.
March 24th, 2010 at 4:39:34 PM
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I did do a search to see about people asking about this.
My girlfriend is convinced Id do better just buying a couple lottery scratch off tickets- I 110% disagreed. Though I think her rational is a couple tickets costs from $2 to $60 and you are done- whereas Casinos are designed to make you stay and play and play and go out the door with zilch.
Now correct me if my math is off here (which is very well codl be because Im only putting a little thought into this)
If I buy a 10 $5 scratch offs with odds of one in 3.23- is that an investment of $50 with an expected return of aprox $15.48 (or a lotto's 'edge' of 70%)
Whereas if I play even a stingy casino game like let it ride and play 10 $5 min. bets with a house edge of 3.5% I get a return of $48.25.
Am I thinking this over correctly?
My girlfriend is convinced Id do better just buying a couple lottery scratch off tickets- I 110% disagreed. Though I think her rational is a couple tickets costs from $2 to $60 and you are done- whereas Casinos are designed to make you stay and play and play and go out the door with zilch.
Now correct me if my math is off here (which is very well codl be because Im only putting a little thought into this)
If I buy a 10 $5 scratch offs with odds of one in 3.23- is that an investment of $50 with an expected return of aprox $15.48 (or a lotto's 'edge' of 70%)
Whereas if I play even a stingy casino game like let it ride and play 10 $5 min. bets with a house edge of 3.5% I get a return of $48.25.
Am I thinking this over correctly?
"Although men flatter themselves with their great actions, they are not so often the result of a great design as of chance." - Francois De La Rochefoucauld
March 24th, 2010 at 5:09:35 PM
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Computing the lotto's edge is a lot more complex than you're suggesting. What is 1 in 3.23? The odds of winning? Winning what? $5? Aren't there prizes that are higher than the purchase price? If not, what's the point?
But that's irrelevant.
Her logic seems good on the surface. Getting a couple lottery scratch off tickets is certainly a lot cheaper than going to a casino, and should satisfy your need for a 'fix'. Except for most people, it won't satisfy the desire to gamble. On the contrary, it actually fuels the desire.
But that's irrelevant.
Her logic seems good on the surface. Getting a couple lottery scratch off tickets is certainly a lot cheaper than going to a casino, and should satisfy your need for a 'fix'. Except for most people, it won't satisfy the desire to gamble. On the contrary, it actually fuels the desire.
I invented a few casino games. Info:
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Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
March 24th, 2010 at 5:25:53 PM
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Lotto scratch off tickets pay closer to 50%. So you'll lose $25.
If you play 10 $5 hands of a game with around a 3% house edge, you will lose an average of $1.50.
As long as you actually leave after 10 hands, the casino is the much better bet. Of course, the casino might be a further drive. If you have to drive 25 miles farther, you're spending another $6 in gas, and losing more time with your girlfriend. So depending on valuable that is, there is your answer.
If you play 10 $5 hands of a game with around a 3% house edge, you will lose an average of $1.50.
As long as you actually leave after 10 hands, the casino is the much better bet. Of course, the casino might be a further drive. If you have to drive 25 miles farther, you're spending another $6 in gas, and losing more time with your girlfriend. So depending on valuable that is, there is your answer.
March 24th, 2010 at 6:27:41 PM
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Full odds and returns are usually on the state or province's web sites. In Ontario, the odds of winning on a typical scratch ticket are between 1:3 and 1:4 with a payback set between 57% for 1$ tickets and 70% for $5-$10 denominations.
The odds of winning means out of all the tickets what your odds are of having a winning ticket. The payback represents the total lottery winnings / total lottery tickets.
The odds of winning means out of all the tickets what your odds are of having a winning ticket. The payback represents the total lottery winnings / total lottery tickets.
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You want the truth! You can't handle the truth!
March 24th, 2010 at 7:12:24 PM
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On the same subject, do you know what the percentage return is on the provincial bingo places? Some of those are pretty fun now with the computerized bingo machines.
"Dice, verily, are armed with goads and driving-hooks, deceiving and tormenting, causing grievous woe." -Rig Veda 10.34.4
March 25th, 2010 at 5:17:58 AM
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it can be quite complicated depending on how many variables you really want to put in place.
let's say someone always spend every nickle of his paycheck and is always broke before the next paycheck. Spending some of it on the lottery instead of booze or [name another vice] is money better spent for such a person. Gambling at a distant Casino, though, is mustering more than is practical and would probably be a bad move.
let's say someone always spend every nickle of his paycheck and is always broke before the next paycheck. Spending some of it on the lottery instead of booze or [name another vice] is money better spent for such a person. Gambling at a distant Casino, though, is mustering more than is practical and would probably be a bad move.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
March 25th, 2010 at 4:34:19 PM
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I suspect your lottery ticket returns money to 30% of the players, but it usually returns 50% of the money played. A very small number of players get jackpots. If you purchase $35 worth of scratch off tickets you will get the probable joy of winning nothing, or winning a enough money to buy some more tickets. There is a very slight chance that you will win a jackpot.
Remember that lotto tickets have such a remote chance of wining, that if you buy one on Tuesday, you have a better chance of being dead by Saturday as you do of winning.
On the other hand if you go to a craps table and play a "pass line" bet with a minimum of $5 a total of 495 times (a good afternoon of gambling) and you take 5X free odds every time, you will have gambled a total of $15,000.
The "expected value" is that you will lose $35. Now expected value is only the most likely outcome. You may win or lose several hundreds of dollars (or in some cases several thousand).
You're lotto tickets limit your exposure and your fun, and will probably net you nothing. Your time at the casino is much riskier, even though the expected value is the same.
Even if your casino had coin tossing as a game, your expected value is that you won't lose any money, but the variance could be significant.
Remember that lotto tickets have such a remote chance of wining, that if you buy one on Tuesday, you have a better chance of being dead by Saturday as you do of winning.
On the other hand if you go to a craps table and play a "pass line" bet with a minimum of $5 a total of 495 times (a good afternoon of gambling) and you take 5X free odds every time, you will have gambled a total of $15,000.
The "expected value" is that you will lose $35. Now expected value is only the most likely outcome. You may win or lose several hundreds of dollars (or in some cases several thousand).
You're lotto tickets limit your exposure and your fun, and will probably net you nothing. Your time at the casino is much riskier, even though the expected value is the same.
Even if your casino had coin tossing as a game, your expected value is that you won't lose any money, but the variance could be significant.
