strictlyAP
strictlyAP
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December 9th, 2012 at 6:50:13 PM permalink
was bored this morning and was looking at the wizards picks saw that he took 5 games all dogs

he has been running hot and i was on my way to deleware park so decided to give his pick a whirl with a 500 dollar 5 team parlay

wooo hoooo he goes 5 and -0

i have decided to thank him by offering a 100 dollar freeroll for a contest on his site


any suggestion wiz or mission? im all ears

thanks again
The bet will not be paid- not now not ever
sodawater
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December 9th, 2012 at 6:57:16 PM permalink
deleted
Last edited by: sodawater on Oct 1, 2018
andysif
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December 9th, 2012 at 7:05:40 PM permalink
if all the picks are "random", then the mean should be 50.
but everybody knows that, so they will tend to pick 50*2/3 = 33
but everybody knows that, so they will tend to pick 33*2/3 = 22
but everybody knows that .........
sodawater
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December 9th, 2012 at 7:06:07 PM permalink
deleted
Last edited by: sodawater on Oct 1, 2018
andysif
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December 9th, 2012 at 7:17:19 PM permalink
wouldn't it then become a choice between 0 and 1
sodawater
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December 9th, 2012 at 7:23:00 PM permalink
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Last edited by: sodawater on Oct 1, 2018
JohnnyQ
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December 9th, 2012 at 8:19:00 PM permalink
2 More Cents:

The EVENBOB Roulette System Challenge:

- anyone can pm in their Red or Black sequence
for 5 spins (0 or 00 are do-overs), ie:
R,R,B,R,B,B,B

- 6th & 7th selections are tie breakers

- Wiz goes up to a table at some time
and records the results of 7 spins.

- Winner gets the Money and bragging
rights as the "WOO Roulette System
Challenge Champion"
There's emptiness behind their eyes There's dust in all their hearts They just want to steal us all and take us all apart
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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December 10th, 2012 at 6:01:30 AM permalink
Quote: strictlyAP

was bored this morning and was looking at the wizards picks saw that he took 5 games all dogs

he has been running hot and i was on my way to deleware park so decided to give his pick a whirl with a 500 dollar 5 team parlay

wooo hoooo he goes 5 and -0

i have decided to thank him by offering a 100 dollar freeroll for a contest on his site


any suggestion wiz or mission? im all ears

thanks again



How about saving it for Mike's next charitable adventure? By the way, how much does a 5 team parlay pay, 25-1? Does the ticket become a 4 team parlay if one of the games is a push?
strictlyAP
strictlyAP
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December 10th, 2012 at 6:41:23 AM permalink
no odds are terrible in delaware, its 20-1 and they are 100 max tickets so it has to be 5 seperate tickets,


was counting what i lost by not taking a money line parlay card- does anyone know?
The bet will not be paid- not now not ever
Ayecarumba
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December 10th, 2012 at 9:28:51 AM permalink
Quote: strictlyAP

was bored this morning and was looking at the wizards picks saw that he took 5 games all dogs

he has been running hot and i was on my way to deleware park so decided to give his pick a whirl with a 500 dollar 5 team parlay

wooo hoooo he goes 5 and -0

i have decided to thank him by offering a 100 dollar freeroll for a contest on his site


any suggestion wiz or mission? im all ears

thanks again



How about a "Superbowl Props" prediction contest? The Wizard can pick 10 different Proposition bets for the Superbowl, and one "tie-breaker" (e.g., "Announced Attendance").
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
strictlyAP
strictlyAP
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December 10th, 2012 at 10:40:45 AM permalink
that sounds like fun , any feed back wizard?
The bet will not be paid- not now not ever
Mission146
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December 10th, 2012 at 2:41:16 PM permalink
Quote: strictlyAP

was bored this morning and was looking at the wizards picks saw that he took 5 games all dogs

he has been running hot and i was on my way to deleware park so decided to give his pick a whirl with a 500 dollar 5 team parlay

wooo hoooo he goes 5 and -0

i have decided to thank him by offering a 100 dollar freeroll for a contest on his site


any suggestion wiz or mission? im all ears

thanks again



That's incredibly generous.

I would personally keep it in the site by having a WoV practice games tournament.

How it would work is that you would pick some period of time during which the tournament takes place. The VP paytables can be altered, so that's out, but I think it would work with any other game.

During this timeframe, the player must take a screenshot of his/her highest total and PM/E-Mail you said screenshot which you must also receive during the timeframe. Whoever has the highest number of Credits on his/her screenshot is the winner.

The Kicker

An individual player may only PM/E-Mail ONE screenshot or he/she is eliminated.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
Buzzard
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December 10th, 2012 at 2:47:11 PM permalink
I will take "safety" just to spare the Wiz bad memories !
Shed not for her the bitter tear Nor give the heart to vain regret Tis but the casket that lies here, The gem that filled it Sparkles yet
Wizard
Administrator
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December 10th, 2012 at 4:20:05 PM permalink
Quote: strictlyAP

i have decided to thank him by offering a 100 dollar freeroll for a contest on his site



Thanks! That is very nice of you. If you wish to run your own contest, that is fine. However, I would be very happy to add the $100 to the kitty for the contest of whatever I do.

For the record, my own contribution will be $100 plus I'll match any winnings from GB-II donated to the tax-deductable charity of my choice.

Regarding my picks, I give 95% of the credit to good luck. I'll explain my strategy after the contest. Some of you have evidently figured out the gist of it already, based on some PM's I've received.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
Ayecarumba
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December 10th, 2012 at 4:43:35 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Regarding my picks, I give 95% of the credit to good luck.



That's encouraging. My "contrarian" strategy is in shambles. Like the Arizona Cardinals.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
Buzzard
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December 10th, 2012 at 5:54:48 PM permalink
The WIZ does right in selecting a lot of dogs. You still have to get lucky, but dogs win from 56-58% in NFL.. Think about that.
56 wins for dogs 44 for favorites, how can that be?

EASY. Books try and balance the books, but that is very, very, tuff to do. People like to bet favorites. So with dogs winning more, but with less money bet on them, the books have a better chance of balancing. And they can always lay off a lot of action with a nickle line to big betters, just offering them only one team for that line.

Think about it. How many games are decided on dumb luck, last team to score, turnovers, etc ? Welcome any dissenting or any
enlightening views.
Shed not for her the bitter tear Nor give the heart to vain regret Tis but the casket that lies here, The gem that filled it Sparkles yet
odiousgambit
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December 11th, 2012 at 12:06:24 AM permalink
Quote: Mission146

During this timeframe, the player must take a screenshot of his/her highest total and PM/E-Mail you said screenshot which you must also receive during the timeframe.



I'm thinking there is no time-stamp on these things though. And quite a few folks wouldnt be computer savvy enough to take the steps to post a screenshot
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Mission146
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December 11th, 2012 at 3:35:35 AM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

I'm thinking there is no time-stamp on these things though. And quite a few folks wouldnt be computer savvy enough to take the steps to post a screenshot



We could provide instructions.

The time stamp is in the bottom right of the computer by hitting the, "Print Screen," button. I guess that someone could technically change their system time, but:

1.) If they need to resort to that for $100, more power to them.

AND

2.) They'd still have to log the win on the WoV practice game, so the only thing they could do is get a head start on everyone.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
oscar33
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December 11th, 2012 at 4:51:59 AM permalink
Quote: Buzzard

The WIZ does right in selecting a lot of dogs. You still have to get lucky, but dogs win from 56-58% in NFL.. Think about that.
56 wins for dogs 44 for favorites, how can that be?.



Unfortunately, it cannot be and isn't. Wish it were true. Would make this betting thing a hell of a lot easier.

Oscar
SOOPOO
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December 11th, 2012 at 5:24:31 AM permalink
Quote: Buzzard

The WIZ does right in selecting a lot of dogs. You still have to get lucky, but dogs win from 56-58% in NFL.. Think about that.
56 wins for dogs 44 for favorites, how can that be?

EASY. Books try and balance the books, but that is very, very, tuff to do. People like to bet favorites.



You can't really believe that, Buzz? Time for carotid doppler study? If it was that simple you don't think someone would have noticed and be taking advantage?
Buzzard
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December 11th, 2012 at 7:28:02 AM permalink
Yes they would be. If it were that simple. But do you think I was talking about all games? But there are times when dogs rule.
Usually when the fans really really think they know exactly where their teams are? One example, the end of the season. Having seen 14 games and really really know their shit LOL.

How about this for 8 years. I hate trends, but 8 years ????


2003-2011 All Home Dogs Home Dogs 2+ pts Home Dogs 8+ pts
Weeks 15-17 69-68 (50.4%) 59-52 (53.2%) 17-8 (68.0%)
Shed not for her the bitter tear Nor give the heart to vain regret Tis but the casket that lies here, The gem that filled it Sparkles yet
Buzzard
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December 11th, 2012 at 7:50:01 AM permalink
And This

Since the study looked at games from 2000 through 2008 we figured it might be interesting to see if betting double digit dogs has continued to be profitable over the last three seasons.

Here are the results:

2009: 29-26-2 (52.72%)
2010: 12-10 (54.54%)
2011: 21-13-2 (61.7%)
Shed not for her the bitter tear Nor give the heart to vain regret Tis but the casket that lies here, The gem that filled it Sparkles yet
Buzzard
Buzzard
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December 11th, 2012 at 7:54:04 AM permalink
And for those more inclined to scholarly reports versus my rambling?

http://www.uwyo.edu/aadland/research/nflbets.pdf

Hey, had to be outlandish and still only 3 replies. SIGH
Shed not for her the bitter tear Nor give the heart to vain regret Tis but the casket that lies here, The gem that filled it Sparkles yet
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