Risking it all on one spin

Another pretty interesting Cigar Aficionado gambling article....

In 2004 a British gambler by the name of Ashley Revell sold everything he had, did what he could to raise additional funds and eventually cobbled together a total of $135,000. In a highly publicized gambit, 32-year-old Revell flew to Las Vegas, went downtown to the Plaza Hotel & Casino and bet it all on a single spin of the roulette wheel. He wagered on red. Considering the zero and double-zero, he was getting less than even money and was clearly reckless. The ball spun around the wheel, bumped in and out of a few slots and miraculously landed on a red 7. Revell doubled his money, and—much to the chagrin of management at the Plaza—did not make another bet. Instead, he used the money to finance an online poker site, pokerutd.com. It launched in the U.K. (where online poker is legal) and remains in business today.

The Casino Portfolio

If I would be commited to such a stunt, I would have made sure to sell the story high to the media. And of course to lay off in private much of the risk to an insurance company. Then from your earnings regardless the outcome - make your further business.

Quote: MangoJ

If I would be commited to such a stunt, I would have made sure to sell the story high to the media. And of course to lay off in private much of the risk to an insurance company. Then from your earnings regardless the outcome - make your further business.

I remember this stunt, and the media certainly showed up en masse. You suppose he did just that?

However, as the Wizard has pointed out, he should have picked a better bet to make.

I think the bet he made was okay. The further attention you would get from hitting the zero would far outweight the EV loss.

Make the bet at -5% in the casino, but sell it to the insurance company for -10%. Set the break even point well below the losing spin. Then your only business is totry make at least 20% of your stake from selling your "unbelievable winning story". The more desperate you look beforehand "i.e. selling your house, car, college savings, and everything you own but your clothes you are wearing", the more attention you will get, and the higher will be your payment for interviews, story rights etc.

Just keep quiet over the insurance, and you will make some serious money.

Some casinos balked at the notion and there were some last minute media difficulties.

I don't know if he should have bargained for some special rule change or not. He dealt with the house edge as any other player would deal with it.

I think he was slow and hesitant in putting down his chips and quite frankly I don't think he knew how to play the game.

Quote: FleaStiff

... and quite frankly I don't think he knew how to play the game.

If he doesn't know how to play roulette, who has won a higher percentage of bets playing this game?

I'm not sure but if you're "batting 1000" as they say, I'd say you're playing the game just fine.

His main demonstration to the world was actually "this is how you win at roulette folks."

And it does work frequently enough to be worth doing, and any idiot can understand the chances of winning and exactly what's going on.

This wouldn't have worked on baccarat or craps in terms of getting the public engaged in the outcome as people would assume that there was some trick to what he was doing that they didn't understand.

And I think his lack of being a gambling genius was part of the plan to help people identify and be interested in what he was doing.

One more point: I have seen folks do this in life .. whether they are going all in on some company they are trying to start, or whatever. And frankly, most of those people have less chance of success than this guy with their all-in business acumen.

Quote: MangoJ

If I would be commited to such a stunt, I would have made sure to sell the story high to the media. And of course to lay off in private much of the risk to an insurance company. Then from your earnings regardless the outcome - make your further business.

This was greeked in the TV show "Las Vegas." The guy there made the same request, called the media and hired an agent. The agent asked Ed DeLine for a "rebate" on the loss like many whales get, eventually saying the rebate should be a secret 100% since the Monticeto was getting so much business and attention over it they would make many factors of the bet back. Of course DeLine told him to go jump in Lake Mead and of course the guy won (IIRC on that part.)

I think he's kidding himself about it being "much to the chagrin of casino management." That money's his money now, no greener than that of any of the others glad to make up for the casino's little hit.

I remember this...I was on a cruise when this happened and I saw it on a TV by the bar. Seemed like the bet was way more than $135,000, but I guess when that's all you have, that's huge.

In general, don't you have a mathematically "better" chance of winning an -EV game by making one big bet? The idea being that anything can happen in the short term as opposed to making smaller bets and getting grinded down by the house edge.