The math behind the probabilty/stats...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monte_Carlo_method
Quote: paisielloAll these programs are done using a Monte Carlo simulation of millions or maybe even billions of hands.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monte_Carlo_method
In general, that is not correct. The first step in blackjack analysis is to create a table of dealer probabilities. The first person to do so was Dr. Edward Thorp using an IBM 7090 computer at MIT. There were no personal computers at that time. Thorp used combinatorial analysis and got exact results. One then models various player strategies and calculates the expectation.
False.Quote: paisielloAll these programs are done using a Monte Carlo simulation of millions or maybe even billions of hands.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monte_Carlo_method
Really false. For example, the Mersenne Twister RNG has period of length 2^19937 − 1, which is just a tad more than a billion.Quote: puzzlenut... the results of a billion trials are no more reliable than a few thousand.
Quote: teliotthe Mersenne Twister RNG has period of length 2^19937 − 1, which is just a tad more than a billion.
Very good! I know you can calculate it either way. Which way do you prefer?
In the magazine "Blackjack Forum" a few years ago I chuckled at simulations of a billion trials. The Mersenne Twister had not yet been invented and I knew that they were using the same number sequence over and over again. In the early days of computing some software packages contained random number generators with very short periods. John Von Neumann's "middle of the square" algorithm doesn't work at all.
Thanks, Wizard, for disclosing your method.
I always prefer combinatorial analysis (CA), and that's my first choice for every game. I verify the CA with a simulation. That methodology covers 90%+ of the games I analyze. But, some poker-style games are just too big and I rely on simulation alone.Quote: puzzlenutVery good! I know you can calculate it either way. Which way do you prefer?
There are many outstanding gaming mathematicians who post here.Quote: puzzlenutFor the benefit of surfers, you have just heard from two of the world's most highly respected game analysts.
Quote: teliotThere are many outstanding gaming mathematicians who post here.
I think there are a few bunglers as well. Could you give references?
"Respect youth, for they are the leaders of tomorrow; but if a man has reached forty or fifty and hasn't amounted to anything, he need no longer be respected." - Confucius
Quote: puzzlenutI think there are a few bunglers as well. Could you give references?
"Respect youth, for they are the leaders of tomorrow; but if a man has reached forty or fifty and hasn't amounted to anything, he need no longer be respected." - Confucius
So much for Grandma Moses and the Colonel.
As Buzz said, Grandma Moses at 76; started painting because of arthritis - she couldn't do embroidery any more
Harlan Sanders started Kentucky Fried at 65
Ray Kroc started McDonalds at 52
Raymond Chandler started writing at 51
Julia Child wrote her cookbook at 49, and started filming "The French Chef" at 51
Laura Ingalls Wilder published the first 'Little House on the Prairie' book at 65
I am proud to be a math bungler. I'm learning, but I can tell that doesn't interest you. Don't listen to anything I say. Block me now.
I definitely want to know more about Beachbumbams. Interests? activities? Mathematics aside, she has obvious literary skills. Are we all right now?
Quote: beachbumbabsDoc
While I think he is a great poster, I can't recall him ever answering a math question. Are they in craps threads? That would clearly explain why I would have never seen it.
I'm sort of deciding myself; I get the feeling he's forgotten more than most of us ever knew, but I could be wrong.
I think the question of who has math skills gets a good airing in the 0^0 thread from the other day:
0^0
Anybody who's interested can probably get some kind of impression there.
I'm not in a position to comment on Dorothy; she left before I got here, and I've never had any interaction with her.
Quote: puzzlenutbeachbumbabs: What is your opinion of Dorothy Gale? I understand that she thought highly of her mathematical and programming skills, lorded them over some other member of the forum, provoked a contest, and that eventually both of them were expelled. Is there any truth to that?
Er, Dorothy resigned, and not over anything like that, but over a dispute with HotBlonde over... well... you don't want to know (trust me), but it had nothing to do with math. She's since been reinstated, although she hasn't posted in a while. I don't know where you're getting this.
Quote: beachbumbabsI will add to that list (which I agree with) without excluding anyone else, including the lack of a mention from me (how convoluted is THAT?). Crystal Math, Doc, and miplet are all exceptional, IMHO.
What I mean by this is (I got a question in PM's), from personal experience and observation as a non-math person, I think highly of these folks. There are definitely other people working in threads I don't follow, or who haven't demonstrated their math skills or knowledge in a big way in the short time I've been on here. No offense or ranking among those named or unnamed intended.
(That no positive integers, a, b and c can satisfy the equation a^n+b^n=c^n For n greater then 2. (If n=2 it is the Pythagoras Formula )
Yet Babs always balanced our checking account.
Doc has a PhD in a math-intensive field. He usually doesn't join discussions of gaming math, but he's also not usually wrong when he does.
The first that come to mind that you haven't mentioned are Charles Mousseau (I don't know his I.D. here), JB, CrystalMath and Miplet.Quote: puzzlenutOK, forget Confucius. What I wanted was to know is who the good mathematicians who visit here are. Teliot is in a position to know. I already know about the Wizard, Teliot, and MathExtremist, but I want to know whom to heed and whom to ignore.
Quote: teliotThe first that come to mind that you haven't mentioned are Charles Mousseau (I don't know his I.D. here), JB, CrystalMath and Miplet.
His user name is CRMousseau.
Quote: puzzlenut... but I want to know whom to heed and whom to ignore.
Personally, I don't heed people who like that to stir up fights.
As someone else mentioned, the 0^0 thread would be a good place to start looking to answer that question for yourself.
Quote: puzzlenutWhat is your opinion of Dorothy Gale? I understand that she thought highly of her mathematical and programming skills, lorded them over some other member of the forum, provoked a contest,
You understand this from where? What's your source?
Quote: teliotThere are many outstanding gaming mathematicians who post here.
I didn't know about WoV until the Revel promo. I've been on vpFREE for about 7 years. Someone posted up on vpFREE that there was a thread on the Revel promo here on WoV. That's the first time I visited this site. Before it came to light that Dancer tipped off Revel about the $25 machines he tried to get me to stop my criticism of Revel on vpFREE. He asked me where I was getting my information. I told him from the Revel thread on WoV. He asked me "Do you know any of those guys? They could all be a bunch of yahoos!" I didn't know anyone on here at the time so I couldn't disagree with him. But I've been on here for two months now. If Bob knew much intelligentsia is on this site compared to vpFREE it would probably scare him to death.
Quote: WizardPersonally, I don't heed people who like that to stir up fights.
As someone else mentioned, the 0^0 thread would be a good place to start looking to answer that question for yourself.
Yeah, definitely a good start, but I have personally stayed out of that thread. Didn't get around to looking into it, and by this point, I wouldn't have anything worthy to add to it.
Quote: mickeycrimmI didn't know about WoV until the Revel promo. I've been on vpFREE for about 7 years. Someone posted up on vpFREE that there was a thread on the Revel promo here on WoV. That's the first time I visited this site. Before it came to light that Dancer tipped off Revel about the $25 machines he tried to get me to stop my criticism of Revel on vpFREE. He asked me where I was getting my information. I told him from the Revel thread on WoV. He asked me "Do you know any of those guys? They could all be a bunch of yahoos!" I didn't know anyone on here at the time so I couldn't disagree with him. But I've been on here for two months now. If Bob knew much intelligentsia is on this site compared to vpFREE it would probably scare him to death.
Yeah, we aren't as video poker oriented vpFREE is obviously, but in general, gaming math analysis is really strong here. Also what I personally like is that the stronger math posters here are also some of the nicest on the forum and rarely give off the impression of "I'm better than you." when displaying their math expertise. It's more about just being helpful.
Quote: trin
Quote:Yeah, we aren't as video poker oriented vpFREE is obviously, but in general, gaming math analysis is really strong here. Also what I personally like is that the stronger math posters here are also some of the nicest on the forum and rarely give off the impression of "I'm better than you." when displaying their math expertise. It's more about just being helpful.
This is exactly what is amazing and rewarding about this site, trin; you said it so well! There's such a great mix of huge minds and interesting posters, and no thought goes unchallenged. Yet there is a decency rather than an aloofness or arrogance from those who know what they're talking about, a very genuine interest in educating rather than inflating their egos at others' expense. It's that attitude, even more than the resources, which keeps me engaged.If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
Quote: tringlomaneYeah, definitely a good start, but I have personally stayed out of that thread. Didn't get around to looking into it, and by this point, I wouldn't have anything worthy to add to it.
Yeah, we aren't as video poker oriented vpFREE is obviously, but in general, gaming math analysis is really strong here. Also what I personally like is that the stronger math posters here are also some of the nicest on the forum and rarely give off the impression of "I'm better than you." when displaying their math expertise. It's more about just being helpful.[/q
It's the greatest thing in the world, tringlomane. The thing that I know, on my level, I know that I ain't even close to the level of these mathematicains on Wov. I know it so well. I would say I wish I had that ability. But I dont' have the capability of it. The more time I spend of WoV the more math tricks I learn. I'm 60 years old. I'm spring chicken. Let's go! I want to learn something. Teach me some new tricks, gentlemen.
I could do a much better job if I weren't so ignorant."Quit trying your luck and start trying your skill." Mickey Crimm
