Stock Picks
January 31st, 2014 at 8:33:53 AM
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I'm going to step out here a bit (I say this since I believe that there are a lot of GOOG supporters) and say that GOOG, which is presently trading at around 5 X's revenue has topped in terms of that metric. I believe that it goes no higher and therefore believe that it will now underperform most other issues on a going forward basis. The price may increase, but the sales multiple will contract and as sales growth slows, the stock price will languish. Not unlike what MSFT and INTC amongst others have experienced.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
January 31st, 2014 at 10:18:12 AM
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Newmont Mining (NEM) is down more than 10% today, now approaching 21 from the wrong direction. (The high was above 72 in late 2011.)
I'm not even sure what the problem was with the earnings report. The gold mining sector is incredibly unloved.
I'm not even sure what the problem was with the earnings report. The gold mining sector is incredibly unloved.
"Scientists tell us that the fastest animal on earth, with a top speed of 120 feet per second, is a cow that has been dropped out of a helicopter."
January 31st, 2014 at 10:29:01 AM
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Quote: gpac1377Newmont Mining (NEM) is down more than 10% today, now approaching 21 from the wrong direction. (The high was above 72 in late 2011.)
I'm not even sure what the problem was with the earnings report. The gold mining sector is incredibly unloved.
gpac1377, sorry to be negative here. But I see in NEM a company for which analysts are forecasting no growth for the next 5 years while it is currently trading in excess of 1X's revenues and for whom over the near term the analysts are calling for declining sales and net income. All of that topped off with a less than stellar balance sheet. I couldn't be a fan of this company. All in my opinion.........
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
January 31st, 2014 at 11:00:29 AM
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Quote: steeldcogpac1377, sorry to be negative here. But I see in NEM a company for which analysts are forecasting no growth for the next 5 years while it is currently trading in excess of 1X's revenues and for whom over the near term the analysts are calling for declining sales and net income. All of that topped off with a less than stellar balance sheet. I couldn't be a fan of this company. All in my opinion.........
Thanks. I'm not suggesting that Newmont is the best company in the sector, but I was using today's carnage as an example of the overall negative sentiment.
Forward projections are heavily dependent on the expected price of gold, and Wall Street analysts are very negative on gold, generally expecting lower prices as I've noticed. That's where I differ.
"Scientists tell us that the fastest animal on earth, with a top speed of 120 feet per second, is a cow that has been dropped out of a helicopter."
January 31st, 2014 at 12:04:41 PM
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ntek (aligh's company) is up 20% today?!
psem is down to $8.38 :(
psem is down to $8.38 :(
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice).
Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
January 31st, 2014 at 12:08:30 PM
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Quote: 100xOddsntek (aligh's company) is up 20% today?!
psem is down to $8.38 :(
Just curious, how do you know it's ahigh's company? It's in California. I thought he was in Vegas.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
January 31st, 2014 at 12:17:05 PM
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Sorry to hear but the market has sucked lately..........
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
January 31st, 2014 at 12:54:14 PM
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Quote: steeldcoJust curious, how do you know it's ahigh's company? It's in California. I thought he was in Vegas.
I asked him.... and the company also put out a press release when they hired him....
January 31st, 2014 at 1:14:08 PM
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Quote: 100xOddsntek (aligh's company) is up 20% today?!
psem is down to $8.38 :(
ntek ended the day +25%?!?!
psem ended the day @ $8.28 :(
yeah, I own both
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice).
Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
February 1st, 2014 at 8:38:59 AM
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Quote: steeldcoSo maybe the stock market action of yesterday, and again today, are the beginnings of the market correction that I had suspected, and had prepared for by raising cash. I wish no ill will and would be almost as happy if it doesn't happen, but I still believe that it will.
I'll give my basic argument. The Wall Street consensus is that stocks are "not expensive," based on current levels of corporate profits and interest rates. But corporate profits are unprecedented and unsustainable. And interest rates are suppressed, most notably by quantitative easing.
A return to normalized levels would require substantially lower stock prices.
But I can't suggest with any confidence that the market has topped. Here's a chart back to mid-2006 showing regional ETF performance:
That's SPY for the USA (red line), VGK for Europe (purple), and VWO for the emerging markets (green). Notice the spectacular green line rebound in 2009. Eventually of course it exhausted, but then moved sideways for several months before resuming the uptrend. If the USA (red line) does something similar, it could consolidate for awhile before pushing toward 2000 on the S&P 500 later this year. (I view that as a risk since I'm positioned defensively.)
Now let's zoom in more recently, since January 2013:
The emerging markets have been thwacked. They're also more reasonably priced based on CAPE ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyclically_adjusted_price-to-earnings_ratio ) valuations. That's where I would hunt for stocks now. Yesterday I was buying Brazil, where riots have become an everyday occurrence. The main ETF for Brazil (EWZ) is down 50% since 2011. I'd say a lot of bad expectations are already factored in to the price.
"Scientists tell us that the fastest animal on earth, with a top speed of 120 feet per second, is a cow that has been dropped out of a helicopter."
February 1st, 2014 at 8:50:02 AM
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Quote: gpac1377Thanks. I'm not suggesting that Newmont is the best company in the sector, but I was using today's carnage as an example of the overall negative sentiment.
Forward projections are heavily dependent on the expected price of gold, and Wall Street analysts are very negative on gold, generally expecting lower prices as I've noticed. That's where I differ.
gpac1377, it was only an opinion of mine. I am wrong a lot..........and since I am neither long or short, I certainly wish you luck.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
February 1st, 2014 at 8:52:33 AM
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Thanks gpac1377. To simply state my fears......rising interest rates and slower income growth. I continue to wait for 1,675 on the S&P 500 to re-assess my position.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
February 1st, 2014 at 9:16:41 AM
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Quote: steeldcogpac1377, it was only an opinion of mine.
Thanks again for your perspective. Wall Street generally agrees with you on Newmont, so I'm the one with the oddball opinion.
I'm totally a non-professional investor, but we've all been forced into the deep end of the pool by the elimination of yields on low-risk investment options.
"Scientists tell us that the fastest animal on earth, with a top speed of 120 feet per second, is a cow that has been dropped out of a helicopter."
February 1st, 2014 at 9:36:31 AM
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Quote: gpac1377Thanks again for your perspective. Wall Street generally agrees with you on Newmont, so I'm the one with the oddball opinion.
I'm totally a non-professional investor, but we've all been forced into the deep end of the pool by the elimination of yields on low-risk investment options.
gpac1377, thru out most of my years......certainly since the mid 1990s, my strategy has been to chase long term large gains. I seem to have been able to do that so I stick with it and I don't (probably because it's just not exciting enough) even consider low risk investments. It just happens to be my MO and doesn't mean that other investment options are necessarily worse.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
February 1st, 2014 at 9:48:23 AM
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Quote: steeldcomy strategy has been to chase long term large gains. I seem to have been able to do that so I stick with it and I don't (probably because it's just not exciting enough) even consider low risk investments.
I'm inhibited by my risk tolerance. I wouldn't be able to sleep at night if I invested my entire portfolio aggressively.
"Scientists tell us that the fastest animal on earth, with a top speed of 120 feet per second, is a cow that has been dropped out of a helicopter."
February 1st, 2014 at 9:53:15 AM
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Understood. You absolutely need to be able to sleep. When I tried day-trading for a while, I needed tooth picks to keep my eyelids propped open......not a good experience.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
February 8th, 2014 at 5:06:24 AM
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Below is my monthly recap of how the stock picks selected by my stock screener have performed. There is a common thread for November, December, and January, in that SodaStream was selected in each of those months. SodaStream has bombed and pulled down the numbers. Despite that, it seems that the screener has performed pretty well.
| Screen Run of 09/09/13: | |||||
| $ Invested | $ Gain | % Gain | Annualized | ||
| As of 02/08/14 | S&P | $1,653.08 | $143.94 | 8.71% | 20.62% |
| As of 02/08/14 | Stock Screen Group | $3,966.82 | $417.71 | 10.53% | 24.94% |
| Screen Run of 10/09/13: | |||||
| $ Invested | $ Gain | % Gain | Annualized | ||
| As of 02/08/14 | S&P | $1,656.40 | $140.62 | 8.49% | 25.05% |
| As of 02/08/14 | Stock Screen Group | $1,235.33 | $84.25 | 6.82% | 20.12% |
| Screen Run of 11/09/13: | |||||
| $ Invested | $ Gain | % Gain | Annualized | ||
| As of 02/08/14 | S&P | $1,770.61 | $26.41 | 1.49% | 5.90% |
| As of 02/08/14 | Stock Screen Group | $726.58 | $51.82 | 7.13% | 28.21% |
| Screen Run of 12/07/13: | |||||
| $ Invested | $ Gain | % Gain | Annualized | ||
| As of 02/08/14 | S&P | $1,805.09 | -$8.07 | -0.45% | -2.64% |
| As of 02/08/14 | Stock Screen Group | $141.70 | -$11.84 | -8.36% | -49.32% |
| Screen Run of 01/10/14: | |||||
| $ Invested | $ Gain | % Gain | Annualized | ||
| As of 02/08/14 | S&P | $1,842.37 | -$45.35 | -2.46% | -31.65% |
| As of 02/08/14 | Stock Screen Group | $1,233.47 | -$76.57 | -6.21% | -79.81% |
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
February 8th, 2014 at 5:16:20 AM
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Recap of stocks actually purchased:
Issues currently held:
Realized Gains or Losses:
Issues currently held:
| Symbol | Time & Price | Price | Price Paid | Gain | % Gain | Annualized Gain |
| SVA | 2/8/2014 | 6.17 | 3.72 | $5,259.50 | 65.69% | 80.74% |
| SIMG | 2/8/2014 | 5.86 | 4.61 | $1,867.00 | 26.97% | 24.73% |
| CKSW | 2/8/2014 | 9.35 | 8.04 | $1,302.00 | 16.18% | 11.47% |
| Total | $8,428.50 | 36.68% | ||||
Realized Gains or Losses:
| Symbol | Time & Price | Price | Shares | Mkt Value | Price Paid | Cost | Gain & % Gain | % Gain | Annualized Gain |
| Purchased | 9/23/2012 | ||||||||
| OPTR | 10/23/2013 | $12.78 | 571 | $7,297.38 | $14.00 | $7,994.00 | ($704.62) | -8.71% | -7.94% |
| Purchased | 7/3/2013 | ||||||||
| CCIH | 12/6/2013 | $8.74 | 2,025 | $17,698.50 | $3.95 | $7,998.75 | $9,699.75 | 121.27% | 279.84% |
| $15,992.75 | $8,995.13 | ||||||||
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
February 8th, 2014 at 7:26:19 AM
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The below are the results of this month's stock screen run. However, I will continue to wait on further declines before I jump back in with anything. I continue to believe that 1,675 is on the horizon for the S&P 500 and I will wait until then to re-assess.
| Symbol | Name | Purchase | Current | Change | % Change |
| ACAT | Arctic Cat Inc. | $44.40 | $44.40 | $0.00 | 0.00% |
| AIRM | Air Methods Corpo | $52.30 | $52.30 | $0.00 | 0.00% |
| AOS | A.O. Smith Corpor | $46.76 | $46.76 | $0.00 | 0.00% |
| APEI | American Public E | $42.31 | $42.31 | $0.00 | 0.00% |
| BABY | Natus Medical Inc | $24.21 | $24.21 | $0.00 | 0.00% |
| BLT | Blount Internatio | $12.48 | $12.48 | $0.00 | 0.00% |
| BRS | Bristow Group Inc | $65.56 | $65.56 | $0.00 | 0.00% |
| CAB | Cabela's Inc Clas | $69.51 | $69.51 | $0.00 | 0.00% |
| CEMI | Chembio Diagnosti | $3.44 | $3.44 | $0.00 | 0.00% |
| CIEN | Ciena Corporation | $22.73 | $22.73 | $0.00 | 0.00% |
| CLNE | Clean Energy Fuel | $9.69 | $9.69 | $0.00 | 0.00% |
| CONE | CyrusOne Inc | $20.65 | $20.65 | $0.00 | 0.00% |
| CSRE | CSR plc | $44.30 | $44.30 | $0.00 | 0.00% |
| CVU | CPI Aerostructure | $13.71 | $13.71 | $0.00 | 0.00% |
| CYT | Cytec Industries | $90.64 | $90.64 | $0.00 | 0.00% |
| DSW | DSW Inc. Common S | $37.52 | $37.52 | $0.00 | 0.00% |
| ECHO | Echo Global Logis | $17.23 | $17.23 | $0.00 | 0.00% |
| EXLS | ExlService Holdin | $25.45 | $25.45 | $0.00 | 0.00% |
| FC | Franklin Covey Co | $19.26 | $19.26 | $0.00 | 0.00% |
| FCX | Freeport-McMoRan | $32.35 | $32.35 | $0.00 | 0.00% |
| FET | Forum Energy Tech | $26.10 | $26.10 | $0.00 | 0.00% |
| FOXF | Fox Factory Holdi | $15.90 | $15.90 | $0.00 | 0.00% |
| FRAN | Francesca's Holdi | $18.98 | $18.98 | $0.00 | 0.00% |
| G | Genpact Limited C | $14.28 | $14.28 | $0.00 | 0.00% |
| GCO | Genesco Inc. Comm | $71.34 | $71.34 | $0.00 | 0.00% |
| HCCI | Heritage-Crystal | $16.20 | $16.20 | $0.00 | 0.00% |
| HDS | HD Supply Holding | $21.72 | $21.72 | $0.00 | 0.00% |
| INFN | Infinera Corporat | $8.51 | $8.51 | $0.00 | 0.00% |
| IO | Ion Geophysical C | $2.94 | $2.94 | $0.00 | 0.00% |
| ISSI | Integrated Silico | $11.23 | $11.23 | $0.00 | 0.00% |
| LF | Leapfrog Enterpri | $7.15 | $7.15 | $0.00 | 0.00% |
| LKQ | LKQ Corporation | $28.09 | $28.09 | $0.00 | 0.00% |
| LRCX | Lam Research Corp | $51.85 | $51.85 | $0.00 | 0.00% |
| LRN | K12 Inc Common St | $20.53 | $20.53 | $0.00 | 0.00% |
| MED | MEDIFAST INC Comm | $26.67 | $26.67 | $0.00 | 0.00% |
| MEI | Methode Electroni | $31.58 | $31.58 | $0.00 | 0.00% |
| MEOH | Methanex Corporat | $60.65 | $60.65 | $0.00 | 0.00% |
| MG | Mistras Group Inc | $22.99 | $22.99 | $0.00 | 0.00% |
| MNTX | Manitex Internati | $13.91 | $13.91 | $0.00 | 0.00% |
| NPTN | NeoPhotonics Corp | $7.07 | $7.07 | $0.00 | 0.00% |
| OIS | Oil States Intern | $96.77 | $96.77 | $0.00 | 0.00% |
| OVTI | OmniVision Techno | $15.05 | $15.05 | $0.00 | 0.00% |
| OXM | Oxford Industries | $73.20 | $73.20 | $0.00 | 0.00% |
| PFMT | Performant Financ | $7.76 | $7.76 | $0.00 | 0.00% |
| POWR | PowerSecure Inter | $19.42 | $19.42 | $0.00 | 0.00% |
| REGI | Renewable Energy | $10.34 | $10.34 | $0.00 | 0.00% |
| SODA | SodaStream Intern | $37.57 | $37.57 | $0.00 | 0.00% |
| SREV | ServiceSource Int | $7.49 | $7.49 | $0.00 | 0.00% |
| TAX | JTH Holding Inc. | $26.05 | $26.05 | $0.00 | 0.00% |
| TRS | TriMas Corporatio | $34.56 | $34.56 | $0.00 | 0.00% |
| TSCO | Tractor Supply Co | $66.52 | $66.52 | $0.00 | 0.00% |
| TWI | Titan Internation | $16.84 | $16.84 | $0.00 | 0.00% |
| XXIA | Ixia | $12.79 | $12.79 | $0.00 | 0.00% |
| ZUMZ | Zumiez Inc. | $21.84 | $21.84 | $0.00 | 0.00% |
| $1,618.39 | $1,618.39 | $0.00 | 0.00% | ||
| Annualized Return | #DIV/0! | ||||
| ^GSPC | S&P 500 | $1,797.02 | $1,797.02 | $0.00 | 0.00% |
| Annualized Return | #DIV/0! | ||||
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
February 16th, 2014 at 12:35:24 PM
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It has been since December that I last commented on the 3 remaining stock picks that I had posted here and continue to hold. See table below.
Although I have had a generally negative view of the market and have liquidated a good many issues, I continue to hold SVA since I do believe that it will be just huge. It has not disappointed to date and I believe that it is just scratching the surface.
SIMG is a continued hold since it is, in my belief, so tremendously undervalued.
CKSW had been a bit of a dog since I had originally picked it here, but has started to wake up. Still in the early innings on this one.
Although I have had a generally negative view of the market and have liquidated a good many issues, I continue to hold SVA since I do believe that it will be just huge. It has not disappointed to date and I believe that it is just scratching the surface.
SIMG is a continued hold since it is, in my belief, so tremendously undervalued.
CKSW had been a bit of a dog since I had originally picked it here, but has started to wake up. Still in the early innings on this one.
| Symbol | Time & Price | Price | Price Paid | Gain | % Gain | Annualized Gain |
| SVA | 2/16/14 | 6.66 | 3.72 | $6,313.00 | 78.85% | 94.37% |
| SIMG | 2/16/14 | 5.86 | 4.61 | $1,867.00 | 26.97% | 24.24% |
| CKSW | 2/16/14 | 10.13 | 8.04 | $2,082.00 | 25.87% | 18.05% |
| Total | $10,262.00 | 44.66% | ||||
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
February 19th, 2014 at 9:02:14 AM
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Quote: steeldcoI exited CCIH today as I stated that I would. Unfortunately, I'm feeling some seller's remorse, particularly since it has continued up.
In any case, it's done and below are the results of the 2 picks that I had posted and sold.
Symbol Time & Price Price Shares Mkt Value Price Paid Cost Gain & % Gain % Gain Annualized Gain Purchased 9/23/2012 OPTR 23-Oct $12.78 571 $7,297.38 $14.00 $7,994.00 ($704.62) -8.71% -7.94% Purchased 7/3/2013 CCIH 6-Dec $8.74 2,025 $17,698.50 $3.95 $7,998.75 $9,699.75 121.27% 279.84% $15,992.75 $8,995.13
Wow....have I become remorseful...as I write this CCIH is trading at $20. All because I thought that I could time the market.....terrible.
Gonna take a few minutes and go look up directions on hari kari.........
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
February 19th, 2014 at 5:31:57 PM
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Quote: steeldcoWow....have I become remorseful...as I write this CCIH is trading at $20. All because I thought that I could time the market.....terrible.
Gonna take a few minutes and go look up directions on hari kari.........
It looks like you bought at 4, sold at 9, and now it's above 21.
That's brutal. I'm usually able to accept my bad decisions, but it irritates me when I miss an opportunity because of tax considerations. For example, I own Cia Siderurgica (SID), a huge Brazilian steel producer, which rebounded nicely in December. Around Christmas, I was itching to exit, but opted to wait for the calendar to roll over so I could defer the gain to a later tax year.
On the first morning of trading in January, I was ready and alert to sell, but SID gapped down at the open, and it was all downhill from there. Here's the chart:
The orange line is year-end. It was good until then :(
"Scientists tell us that the fastest animal on earth, with a top speed of 120 feet per second, is a cow that has been dropped out of a helicopter."
February 19th, 2014 at 7:13:47 PM
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Back on December 6, I said:
HELE was at 49.35, now it's at 62.54. I wish I can take my own advice sometime. Then again, my other pick, XXIA was at $13.07 and now it's at $12.73 unfortunately, XXIA is the one I own. Pthth!Quote: s2dbakerOne of my long term picks is bouncing like a dead cat today, XXIA. Had I bought it when I recommended it, I'd still be losing a buttload of money. Another one that I don't own, HELE is also rising today. Fortunately, HELE has been on a steady rise for the last three months or even longer. I like HELE.
Someday, joor goin' to see the name of Googie Gomez in lights and joor goin' to say to joorself, "Was that her?" and then joor goin' to answer to joorself, "That was her!" But you know somethin' mister? I was always her yuss nobody knows it! - Googie Gomez
February 20th, 2014 at 2:16:49 AM
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Quote: gpac1377It looks like you bought at 4, sold at 9, and now it's above 21.
That's brutal. I'm usually able to accept my bad decisions, but it irritates me when I miss an opportunity because of tax considerations.
gpac1377, yep. You had to remind me of my many tax related bad decisions? Rubbing salt in the wounds? I have so, so many of those.........
Sorry about SID. Are you still holding?
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
February 20th, 2014 at 3:10:03 AM
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gpac1377, I took a quick look at SID and I find it interesting. Awfully undervalued, in my opinion. If I wasn't concerned about the general state of the market, I think that I would be buying it.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
February 20th, 2014 at 5:47:26 AM
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Quote: steeldcogpac1377, I took a quick look at SID and I find it interesting. Awfully undervalued, in my opinion. If I wasn't concerned about the general state of the market, I think that I would be buying it.
I do continue to own SID, although I sold down the majority of my position from August through October, then no further activity until late January when I added at about 4.75 (just above the current price).
I'm a bad stock picker, especially in "exotic" countries, so I tend to focus on themes. Right now I believe investors are very complacent about inflation, so I like companies with exposure to basic materials/energy, and emerging markets are cheap based on valuation measures such as CAPE.
My worry about SID is further downside potential because the rebound from the July low was so huge. I suspect there may be better opportunities elsewhere in Brazil and other emerging countries.
"Scientists tell us that the fastest animal on earth, with a top speed of 120 feet per second, is a cow that has been dropped out of a helicopter."
February 20th, 2014 at 6:13:30 AM
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gpac1377, thanks. My expectations continue to be for a correction. As little as a week ago, I kind of pegged it at an S&P of 1,675. I now believe that it will go lower. Just under 1,600 and my guess is between now and the end of April. I'm a patient guy so I'll wait. Insofar as the stock picking is concerned, may I make a suggestion? I publish a run of stock picks here, from a screen that I do once a month. If you take that group of selections and narrow it down to a few that you can reasonably expect high sales growth from then I believe that you will end up with some huge winners. A couple of losers too, but the winners will easily make up for the couple of losers. If you can be patient. Just my 2 cents worth.........
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
February 20th, 2014 at 7:46:40 AM
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Quote: steeldcoI publish a run of stock picks here, from a screen that I do once a month.
Yes thanks, I'm following along. At the moment, I don't own anything from your list, which means your list will probably outperform strongly :)
"Scientists tell us that the fastest animal on earth, with a top speed of 120 feet per second, is a cow that has been dropped out of a helicopter."
February 20th, 2014 at 8:37:57 AM
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OK. Good Luck! BTW, the more I look at SID, the more I like it.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
February 20th, 2014 at 9:41:41 AM
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Quote: gpac1377Yes thanks, I'm following along. At the moment, I don't own anything from your list, which means your list will probably outperform strongly :)
Hey gpac1377, sometimes I'm a bit scatter brained, so bear with me. I just want to stress and reiterate that if you find one on my list that has high sales growth (not profit growth)....sales...... then you will probably have a winner. I'm a big believer in sales growth covering up for a lot of sins.....if all of the other metrics hold.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
February 20th, 2014 at 4:51:51 PM
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Quote: steeldcoI'm a big believer in sales growth covering up for a lot of sins.....if all of the other metrics hold.
I guess you could say I'm testing the other side of the coin because many of my holdings have sales that are either collapsing or non-existent.
The broad sales numbers for the US market don't excite me. Here's an article assessing valuation:
http://www.fticonsulting.com/global2/critical-thinking/fti-journal/searching-for-value-equity-market-valuations.aspx
Figure 6 shows four decades of S&P 500 price-to-sales, averaging below 1.0. The current level (source: multpl.com) is 1.65 :(
"Scientists tell us that the fastest animal on earth, with a top speed of 120 feet per second, is a cow that has been dropped out of a helicopter."
February 20th, 2014 at 5:09:19 PM
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I have always bought low and sold high. Not recommending it for everybody, but it seems to work for me.
Shed not for her
the bitter tear
Nor give the heart
to vain regret
Tis but the casket
that lies here,
The gem that filled it
Sparkles yet
February 20th, 2014 at 5:11:59 PM
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Quote: BuzzardI have always bought low and sold high.
Good tip, thanks. I do basically the same thing, with just a couple of changes.
"Scientists tell us that the fastest animal on earth, with a top speed of 120 feet per second, is a cow that has been dropped out of a helicopter."
February 20th, 2014 at 5:18:59 PM
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Quote: gpac1377Good tip, thanks. I do basically the same thing, with just a couple of changes.
I buy usually about a dollar below the high, and sell shortly after the company files for bankruptcy.
"Scientists tell us that the fastest animal on earth, with a top speed of 120 feet per second, is a cow that has been dropped out of a helicopter."
February 21st, 2014 at 2:38:24 AM
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gpac1377, thanks for this. Just kind of confirms my belief that a correction is going to come. However, it also illustrates the fact that the market can go much higher when compared to prior peaks. As I said, I'll re-assess when one happens, or at the end of April.
Also, give me a company, for starters, that is projected to grow sales by at least 17% and I will have ONE solid metric in finding an issue that will yield a very high return. It's not the be all and end all, but it is the foundation.
Also, give me a company, for starters, that is projected to grow sales by at least 17% and I will have ONE solid metric in finding an issue that will yield a very high return. It's not the be all and end all, but it is the foundation.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
February 21st, 2014 at 3:37:55 AM
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Two energy stocks just popped up on my radar. KOG and OAS release earnings early next week. I may bet on an earnings stock price bump. First though, I have to clear out some other positions today, we'll see.
Someday, joor goin' to see the name of Googie Gomez in lights and joor goin' to say to joorself, "Was that her?" and then joor goin' to answer to joorself, "That was her!" But you know somethin' mister? I was always her yuss nobody knows it! - Googie Gomez
February 21st, 2014 at 4:07:52 AM
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I don't like the Balance Sheets of either KOG or OAS. Thanks though.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
February 24th, 2014 at 9:19:55 AM
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I can appreciate that. But then again, both stocks are up over 4% today. (Past results are no guarantee of future performance).Quote: steeldcoI don't like the Balance Sheets of either KOG or OAS. Thanks though.
Someday, joor goin' to see the name of Googie Gomez in lights and joor goin' to say to joorself, "Was that her?" and then joor goin' to answer to joorself, "That was her!" But you know somethin' mister? I was always her yuss nobody knows it! - Googie Gomez
February 24th, 2014 at 11:37:35 AM
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Yep. Saw that. Congrats! Good Luck!
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
February 26th, 2014 at 2:08:45 PM
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The below was just announced today. SVA was discussed in the New England Journal of Medicine........Great News!
BEIJING, Feb. 26, 2014 /PRNewswire/ -- Sinovac Biotech Ltd. (SVA), a leading provider of biopharmaceutical products in China, announced today that Phase III clinical trial results for its proprietary Enterovirus 71 ("EV71") vaccine have been published online in the February 27th issue of The New England Journal of Medicine ("NEJM"). The clinical results showed the efficacy of the vaccine against EV71-associated hand, foot and mouth disease ("HFMD"), or herpangina, was 94.8% among infants and young children and an anti-EV71 neutralizing antibody titer of 1:16 was associated with protection against EV71 associated HFMD or herpangina. As outlined in the NEJM article, Sinovac's vaccine also demonstrated a 100% efficacy rate against EV71-associated hospitalization and against HFMD with neurologic complications, the main cause of fatalities.
The article, entitled "Efficacy, Safety, and Immunogenicity of an Enterovirus 71 Vaccine in China," chronicles the results of the Phase III clinical trial on 10,077 healthy infants and young children in China (6 to 35 months of age) with a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, multicenter trial method. The subjects were randomly assigned in a 1:1 ratio to receive two intramuscular doses of either Sinovac's EV71 vaccine or placebo, 28 days apart. The surveillance period was 12 months. The primary endpoint was the occurrence of EV71-associated HFMD, or herpangina. The results showed the vaccine can provide protection against EV71 associated HFMD in infants and children.
According to the statistics from National Health and Family Planning Commission of China from 2008 to 2013, more than 9 million total cases of HFMD were reported, resulting in around 2,700 reported fatalities in China. According to an epidemiological study for the period of 2008 to 2012, around 80% of the severe cases and over 90% of fatal cases were caused by the enterovirus 71 (or EV71 ) infection.
Fengcai Zhu, M.D., Director of Jiangsu Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, co-principal investigator and lead author, said, "This study showed that the EV71 vaccine provides protection to the infants and young children against EV71-associated HFMD and the vaccine candidate has good safety and immunogenicity profile. HFMD has been an increasingly important public health issue among the young children in Asia-Pacific region, including China, and caused a significant social burden. The successful development of the EV71 vaccine is an exciting achievement by Sinovac, as it will provide an effective tool to protect infants and young children against EV71 associated HFMD, especially at the level of severe cases and potential fatalities."
Mr. Weidong Yin, Chairman, President and CEO commented, "The peer-reviewed publication in NEJM of our Phase III clinical trial results shows that our scientific contribution is acknowledged by the academia. The follow-up research is still ongoing. As there is no commercialized vaccine and no EV71 specific treatment available, there are increasing unmet medical needs. We are pleased to see that our vaccine is able to provide protection to infants and children against the EV71-associated HMFD. Sinovac is well prepared for the commercialization of this much needed vaccine. Once the regulatory approval is granted, we will be able to contribute to the overall control and prevention of this devastating disease."
About EV71 and HFMD
Enterovirus 71, or EV71, causes Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease (or HFMD). More than 90% of the reported cases occur in children under five years old. HFMD is a common and usually mild childhood disease. However, there has been an increase in severe HFMD cases reported associated with neurological symptoms caused by EV71. A growing number of outbreaks of EV71 HFMD have been reported since 1997 across the Asia-Pacific region, including mainland China, Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea, and Taiwan. Outbreaks have been reported in Malaysia (1997), Taiwan (1998, 2000 & 2001), mainland China (1998-2008), Australia (1999) and Singapore (2000) among other areas in the region. No specific treatment for this enterovirus infection and no vaccine are currently available.
In China, HFMD has become a very serious problem, especially in children, given that no vaccine and specific treatment is currently available to protect against this disease. In March 2008, an EV71 outbreak in Fuyang City of China's Anhui Province caused 23 fatalities, and attracted significant attention from the government and medical communities. In May 2008, the Chinese Ministry of Health identified EV71 as a Class C infectious disease according to prevention and control regulations. EV71 outbreaks have increased over the last five years, with more than 1 million cases identified and 500 to 900 reported fatalities each year. According to the statistics from National Health and Family Planning Commission of China from 2008 to 2013, more than 9 million cases of HFMD have been reported, resulting in around 2,700 fatalities.
About Sinovac's EV71 Vaccine
Sinovac Biotech Ltd. commenced research and development for its independently developed EV71 vaccine in 2008. In December of 2009, Sinovac completed pre-clinical research and filed a clinical trial application to China Food and Drug Administration (CFDA) and in December 2010, received CFDA's approval to assess safety and immunogenicity in Phase I and II clinical trials, and to conduct an efficacy study in a Phase III clinical trial. In 2011, Sinovac conducted and completed Phase I and II clinical trials. The results demonstrated that Sinovac's EV71 vaccine has a good safety and immunogenicity profile, which was the basis for the recently concluded Phase III clinical trial for efficacy in the beginning of 2012. The phase I clinical result was published by the peer-reviewed journal Vaccine in March of 2012. The phase II clinical results were published by "The Journal of Infectious Diseases" in 2013. And also in 2013, the results on immunogenicity, safety and lot consistency study in phase III clinical trial were published in "Clinical and Vaccine Immunology."
About Sinovac
Sinovac Biotech Ltd. is a China-based biopharmaceutical company that focuses on the research, development, manufacturing and commercialization of vaccines that protect against human infectious diseases including hepatitis A and B, seasonal influenza, H5N1 pandemic influenza (avian flu), H1N1 influenza (swine flu) and mumps, as well as animal rabies vaccine for canines. The Company recently concluded the phase III clinical trial for enterovirus 71 (against hand, foot and mouth disease) and filed new drug application with China Food & Drug Administration. In 2009, Sinovac was the first company worldwide to receive approval for its H1N1 influenza vaccine, Panflu.1, and has manufactured it for the Chinese Central Government, pursuant to the government-stockpiling program. The Company is also the only supplier of the H5N1 pandemic influenza vaccine to the government-stockpiling program. Sinovac is developing a number of new pipeline vaccines including vaccines for pneumococcal polysaccharides, pneumococcal conjugate, varicella and rubella. Sinovac sells its vaccines mainly in China and exports selected vaccines to Mongolia, Nepal, and the Philippines. Sinovac has also been granted a license to commercialize seasonal flu vaccine in Mexico.
BEIJING, Feb. 26, 2014 /PRNewswire/ -- Sinovac Biotech Ltd. (SVA), a leading provider of biopharmaceutical products in China, announced today that Phase III clinical trial results for its proprietary Enterovirus 71 ("EV71") vaccine have been published online in the February 27th issue of The New England Journal of Medicine ("NEJM"). The clinical results showed the efficacy of the vaccine against EV71-associated hand, foot and mouth disease ("HFMD"), or herpangina, was 94.8% among infants and young children and an anti-EV71 neutralizing antibody titer of 1:16 was associated with protection against EV71 associated HFMD or herpangina. As outlined in the NEJM article, Sinovac's vaccine also demonstrated a 100% efficacy rate against EV71-associated hospitalization and against HFMD with neurologic complications, the main cause of fatalities.
The article, entitled "Efficacy, Safety, and Immunogenicity of an Enterovirus 71 Vaccine in China," chronicles the results of the Phase III clinical trial on 10,077 healthy infants and young children in China (6 to 35 months of age) with a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, multicenter trial method. The subjects were randomly assigned in a 1:1 ratio to receive two intramuscular doses of either Sinovac's EV71 vaccine or placebo, 28 days apart. The surveillance period was 12 months. The primary endpoint was the occurrence of EV71-associated HFMD, or herpangina. The results showed the vaccine can provide protection against EV71 associated HFMD in infants and children.
According to the statistics from National Health and Family Planning Commission of China from 2008 to 2013, more than 9 million total cases of HFMD were reported, resulting in around 2,700 reported fatalities in China. According to an epidemiological study for the period of 2008 to 2012, around 80% of the severe cases and over 90% of fatal cases were caused by the enterovirus 71 (or EV71 ) infection.
Fengcai Zhu, M.D., Director of Jiangsu Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, co-principal investigator and lead author, said, "This study showed that the EV71 vaccine provides protection to the infants and young children against EV71-associated HFMD and the vaccine candidate has good safety and immunogenicity profile. HFMD has been an increasingly important public health issue among the young children in Asia-Pacific region, including China, and caused a significant social burden. The successful development of the EV71 vaccine is an exciting achievement by Sinovac, as it will provide an effective tool to protect infants and young children against EV71 associated HFMD, especially at the level of severe cases and potential fatalities."
Mr. Weidong Yin, Chairman, President and CEO commented, "The peer-reviewed publication in NEJM of our Phase III clinical trial results shows that our scientific contribution is acknowledged by the academia. The follow-up research is still ongoing. As there is no commercialized vaccine and no EV71 specific treatment available, there are increasing unmet medical needs. We are pleased to see that our vaccine is able to provide protection to infants and children against the EV71-associated HMFD. Sinovac is well prepared for the commercialization of this much needed vaccine. Once the regulatory approval is granted, we will be able to contribute to the overall control and prevention of this devastating disease."
About EV71 and HFMD
Enterovirus 71, or EV71, causes Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease (or HFMD). More than 90% of the reported cases occur in children under five years old. HFMD is a common and usually mild childhood disease. However, there has been an increase in severe HFMD cases reported associated with neurological symptoms caused by EV71. A growing number of outbreaks of EV71 HFMD have been reported since 1997 across the Asia-Pacific region, including mainland China, Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea, and Taiwan. Outbreaks have been reported in Malaysia (1997), Taiwan (1998, 2000 & 2001), mainland China (1998-2008), Australia (1999) and Singapore (2000) among other areas in the region. No specific treatment for this enterovirus infection and no vaccine are currently available.
In China, HFMD has become a very serious problem, especially in children, given that no vaccine and specific treatment is currently available to protect against this disease. In March 2008, an EV71 outbreak in Fuyang City of China's Anhui Province caused 23 fatalities, and attracted significant attention from the government and medical communities. In May 2008, the Chinese Ministry of Health identified EV71 as a Class C infectious disease according to prevention and control regulations. EV71 outbreaks have increased over the last five years, with more than 1 million cases identified and 500 to 900 reported fatalities each year. According to the statistics from National Health and Family Planning Commission of China from 2008 to 2013, more than 9 million cases of HFMD have been reported, resulting in around 2,700 fatalities.
About Sinovac's EV71 Vaccine
Sinovac Biotech Ltd. commenced research and development for its independently developed EV71 vaccine in 2008. In December of 2009, Sinovac completed pre-clinical research and filed a clinical trial application to China Food and Drug Administration (CFDA) and in December 2010, received CFDA's approval to assess safety and immunogenicity in Phase I and II clinical trials, and to conduct an efficacy study in a Phase III clinical trial. In 2011, Sinovac conducted and completed Phase I and II clinical trials. The results demonstrated that Sinovac's EV71 vaccine has a good safety and immunogenicity profile, which was the basis for the recently concluded Phase III clinical trial for efficacy in the beginning of 2012. The phase I clinical result was published by the peer-reviewed journal Vaccine in March of 2012. The phase II clinical results were published by "The Journal of Infectious Diseases" in 2013. And also in 2013, the results on immunogenicity, safety and lot consistency study in phase III clinical trial were published in "Clinical and Vaccine Immunology."
About Sinovac
Sinovac Biotech Ltd. is a China-based biopharmaceutical company that focuses on the research, development, manufacturing and commercialization of vaccines that protect against human infectious diseases including hepatitis A and B, seasonal influenza, H5N1 pandemic influenza (avian flu), H1N1 influenza (swine flu) and mumps, as well as animal rabies vaccine for canines. The Company recently concluded the phase III clinical trial for enterovirus 71 (against hand, foot and mouth disease) and filed new drug application with China Food & Drug Administration. In 2009, Sinovac was the first company worldwide to receive approval for its H1N1 influenza vaccine, Panflu.1, and has manufactured it for the Chinese Central Government, pursuant to the government-stockpiling program. The Company is also the only supplier of the H5N1 pandemic influenza vaccine to the government-stockpiling program. Sinovac is developing a number of new pipeline vaccines including vaccines for pneumococcal polysaccharides, pneumococcal conjugate, varicella and rubella. Sinovac sells its vaccines mainly in China and exports selected vaccines to Mongolia, Nepal, and the Philippines. Sinovac has also been granted a license to commercialize seasonal flu vaccine in Mexico.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
March 3rd, 2014 at 8:14:15 AM
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This may be unpopular, but I'm liking Russia a lot this morning.
Prices there were already cheap (based on CAPE & other valuation measures), and today they've been marked down another 10% or so.
Russia maintains a current account surplus, with minimal government debt by current standards, and is rich in natural resources, which I expect to be increasingly significant as world inflation surprises to the upside.
Obviously the immediate political tensions could escalate to the further detriment of prices, but I don't foresee any major adverse consequences for Russia.
To keep it simple, I would buy ETFs focused on Russia. I would buy partial positions in ERUS at the current price of 16.73, and/or RSX at the current 22.43. Then I would add to those positions on any substantial further weakness.
Prices there were already cheap (based on CAPE & other valuation measures), and today they've been marked down another 10% or so.
Russia maintains a current account surplus, with minimal government debt by current standards, and is rich in natural resources, which I expect to be increasingly significant as world inflation surprises to the upside.
Obviously the immediate political tensions could escalate to the further detriment of prices, but I don't foresee any major adverse consequences for Russia.
To keep it simple, I would buy ETFs focused on Russia. I would buy partial positions in ERUS at the current price of 16.73, and/or RSX at the current 22.43. Then I would add to those positions on any substantial further weakness.
"Scientists tell us that the fastest animal on earth, with a top speed of 120 feet per second, is a cow that has been dropped out of a helicopter."
March 3rd, 2014 at 8:45:58 AM
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gpac1377, to follow along with your thought, I very much like YNDX down at this $31-$32 level.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
March 3rd, 2014 at 9:14:26 AM
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Quote: steeldcoI very much like YNDX down at this $31-$32 level.
Thanks, I like that :)
Unfortunately, it's running away from me at the moment. I plan to nibble if it drops back down near 31.75. (I figure if I'm going to "catch a falling knife," I'll at least be disciplined about the price I pay.)
"Scientists tell us that the fastest animal on earth, with a top speed of 120 feet per second, is a cow that has been dropped out of a helicopter."
March 3rd, 2014 at 2:04:10 PM
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Despite my belief that we will be in for a market correction, I viewed YNDX as just being too good to pass up. I am in today with an average price of $32.16
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
March 3rd, 2014 at 2:33:52 PM
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With today's buy, the WOV portfolio picks now stand as:
Prior closed positions:
| Symbol | Time & Price | Price | Price Paid | Gain | % Gain | Annualized Gain |
| CKSW | 04:00pm EST | 9.88 | 8.04 | $1,832.00 | 22.76% | 15.44% |
| SIMG | 04:00pm EST | 5.97 | 4.61 | $2,032.00 | 29.35% | 25.45% |
| SVA | 04:00pm EST | 6.72 | 3.72 | $6,442.00 | 80.46% | 91.78% |
| YNDX | 04:00pm EST | 32.23 | 32.16 | $9.50 | 0.12% | 43.08% |
| Total | $10,315.50 | 33.25% | ||||
Prior closed positions:
| Symbol | Time & Price | Price | Shares | Mkt Value | Price Paid | Cost | Gain & % Gain | % Gain | Annualized Gain |
| Purchased | 9/23/2012 | ||||||||
| OPTR | 23-Oct | $12.78 | 571 | $7,297.38 | $14.00 | $7,994.00 | ($704.62) | -8.71% | -7.94% |
| Purchased | 7/3/2013 | ||||||||
| CCIH | 6-Dec | $8.74 | 2,025 | $17,698.50 | $3.95 | $7,998.75 | $9,699.75 | 121.27% | 279.84% |
| $15,992.75 | $8,995.13 | ||||||||
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
March 3rd, 2014 at 2:45:34 PM
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I got out of OAS and am looking for a few more cents before getting out of KOG. I'm taking my very short term profits and moving on.Quote: steeldcoYep. Saw that. Congrats! Good Luck!
Someday, joor goin' to see the name of Googie Gomez in lights and joor goin' to say to joorself, "Was that her?" and then joor goin' to answer to joorself, "That was her!" But you know somethin' mister? I was always her yuss nobody knows it! - Googie Gomez
March 3rd, 2014 at 2:48:47 PM
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Frankly, I'm glad to hear. Great that you made some coin!
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
March 3rd, 2014 at 3:22:51 PM
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Quote: steeldcoDespite my belief that we will be in for a market correction, I viewed YNDX as just being too good to pass up. I am in today with an average price of $32.16
For the past 3 years, the USA (SPY) is up 40%, while Russia (RSX) is down 45%.
Eastern Europe (ESR) is down over 35%.
There's certainly room for the USA to correct without any further damage to the former Soviet Union.
I'm continuing to wait for a price near 31.75 before purchasing YNDX. (I realize it may be a long wait, lol.)
"Scientists tell us that the fastest animal on earth, with a top speed of 120 feet per second, is a cow that has been dropped out of a helicopter."
March 3rd, 2014 at 4:02:26 PM
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Quote: gpac1377
I'm continuing to wait for a price near 31.75 before purchasing YNDX. (I realize it may be a long wait, lol.)
.............hopefully it'll be an awfully long one. Maybe like 12th. of Never.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
March 4th, 2014 at 2:08:56 PM
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Quote: steeldco.............hopefully it'll be an awfully long one. Maybe like 12th. of Never.
YNDX (which I didn't buy) was up 6.5% today, but the Russian stocks I did buy were up about 4%, so not a complete disaster.
A complete disaster would be something like SunPower (SPWR), which finished near 36 today. In late 2012, I bought it below 5.
Unfortunately I sold at 6 :(
"Scientists tell us that the fastest animal on earth, with a top speed of 120 feet per second, is a cow that has been dropped out of a helicopter."
