Stock Picks

Quote: billryan

Quote: steeldco

After a long period of inaction, I am going to sell out the 4 oldest picks made by the stock screen.
Also, I will be (for the first time in my lifetime) adding 5 short candidates.

Here is what is sold:

Symbols	Name	Screen Run Date	# of Shares	Cost	Selling Price	Gain
SYNA	ELEC COMP-SEMIC	6/25/2016	19	$52.22	$56.15	$74.67
IPXL	MED-GENERIC DRG	6/25/2016	34	$29.26	$17.65	-$394.74
NMBL	COMP-STORAGE DEV	6/25/2016	125	$7.99	$12.50	$563.75
OOMA	COMMUNICATIONS COMPONENTS	6/25/2016	124	$8.05	$11.95	$483.60
Total of the 4 Picks				$3,983.97	$4,711.25	$727.28
S&P 500 since 06/25/16				$2,000.54	$2,390.90	$390.36

Here is a recap of the closed positions. Still beating the S&P.

Screen Run Date	Exit Date	Picks Cost	Picks $ Gain (Loss)	Picks % Gain	Annualized Rate	S&P Cost	S&P $ Gain (Loss)	S&P % Gain	Picks Vs. S&P
11/4/2015	4/22/2016	$4,985.56	$640.01	12.84%	27.18%	$2,110.60	-$19.02	-0.90%	13.74%
12/27/2015	5/20/2016	$4,966.27	$84.28	1.70%	4.21%	$2,057.77	-$5.45	-0.26%	1.96%
1/30/2016	6/24/2016	$4,977.37	$1,545.54	31.05%	76.56%	$1,940.24	$97.06	5.00%	26.05%
2/27/2016	7/22/2016	$4,955.49	$728.95	14.71%	36.27%	$1,948.05	$226.98	11.65%	3.06%
3/25/2016	10/7/2016	$4,951.71	-$288.30	-5.82%	-10.69%	$2,035.94	$117.80	5.79%	-11.61%
4/23/2016	11/7/2016	$4,809.06	-$158.47	-3.30%	-5.99%	$2,091.58	-$6.40	-0.31%	-2.99%
5/21/2016	1/13/2017	$4,974.35	-$408.03	-8.20%	-12.46%	$2,052.32	$222.32	10.83%	-19.04%
6/25/2016	5/15/2017	$3,983.97	$727.28	18.26%	20.28%	$2,000.54	$390.36	19.51%	-1.26%
Total Closed		$38,603.78	$2,871.27	7.44%		$16,237.04	$1,023.65	6.30%	1.13%

I'm late to the game, but if I'm reading this right, you have a 7.44% gain,. Is that after commissions and taxes?

Pre-tax with no commissions (not a lot these days anyway). But the S&P comps also have no commission or taxes deducted.

Quote: odiousgambit

I'm going to watch this.

Seems to me the problem with shorting is that you can be right that the outfit is in trouble, yet you have to be right about what's going to happen in a small window of time and just be wrong in your timing.

Of course you can keep shorting and keep shorting - sounds like that can feel like throwing good money after bad, though.

I think this will be interesting. I very rarely short anything. Doing OK so far.

Ok, I'm doing roughly that via Lending Club. 7.53% over last ten months, no commissions.
It's peer to peer lending, $25 at a time. I wouldn't put all my money into it but started with $15,000 and added another $10,000.
Might up it to $50,000. My managed portfolios have not been all that great.

Quote: billryan

Ok, I'm doing roughly that via Lending Club. 7.53% over last ten months, no commissions.
It's peer to peer lending, $25 at a time. I wouldn't put all my money into it but started with $15,000 and added another $10,000.
Might up it to $50,000. My managed portfolios have not been all that great.

Interesting. Thanks for bringing it up billryan. I'll have to take a deeper dive into Lending Club. I believe that I read a bit about it in maybe Forbes?

It's pretty simple. You deposit money, choose how much risk you want to have and they lend out your money in $25 increments. People apply for loans and based on credit worthiness and other factors they are rated A-G., or maybe H. Someone getting a $1,000 loan gets forty $25 micro-loans.
About 85% of my loans are A-B-C and for 36 months. These are the best loans but pay low interest. Between 6.99 and 14%, minus the fees.
D-G gets speculative, but interest rates are well over 25% so there is that. I don't go beyond E and limit that to 2% of the portfolio.
If somebody completely flakes out, the most you can lose is $25 on that loan. A lot of people seem to take out $2500-$5000 loans and pay them back quickly. Perhaps to help build credit.
You can choose your own loans, reading peoples stories or let their computer do it.

An interesting diversion from just stocks, and much better than bank CDs these days.

Quote: billryan

It's pretty simple. You deposit money, choose how much risk you want to have and they lend out your money in $25 increments. People apply for loans and based on credit worthiness and other factors they are rated A-G., or maybe H. Someone getting a $1,000 loan gets forty $25 micro-loans.
About 85% of my loans are A-B-C and for 36 months. These are the best loans but pay low interest. Between 6.99 and 14%, minus the fees.
D-G gets speculative, but interest rates are well over 25% so there is that. I don't go beyond E and limit that to 2% of the portfolio.
If somebody completely flakes out, the most you can lose is $25 on that loan. A lot of people seem to take out $2500-$5000 loans and pay them back quickly. Perhaps to help build credit.
You can choose your own loans, reading peoples stories or let their computer do it.

An interesting diversion from just stocks, and much better than bank CDs these days.

Thanks. I would imagine that rates will slowly be rising.

Perhaps, I don't really pay much attention to it.
This is what I call Ronco Investing. You set it and forget it. I reinvest my payments every month so I don't see anything unless I check the site.

Quote: steeldco

The closed positions and new portfolio look as follows:

Closed Positions (Surprised that the December picks did OK):

Screen Run Date	Exit Date	Picks Cost	Picks $ Gain (Loss)	Picks % Gain	Annualized Rate	S&P Cost	S&P $ Gain (Loss)	S&P % Gain	Picks Vs. S&P
11/4/2015	4/22/2016	$4,985.56	$640.01	12.84%	27.18%	$2,110.60	-$19.02	-0.90%	13.74%
12/27/2015	5/20/2016	$4,966.27	$84.28	1.70%	4.21%	$2,057.77	-$5.45	-0.26%	1.96%

Open Positions as of today:

Symbols	Name	Screen Run Date	# of Shares	Cost	Current Price	Gain as of 05/21/16
NMBL	Nimble Storage Inc	1/30/2016	152	$6.57	$7.18	9.28%
CGNT	Cogentix Medical Inc	1/30/2016	970	$1.03	$0.88	-14.56%
SMCI	Super Micro Computer	1/30/2016	33	$29.78	$25.20	-15.38%
CSII	Cardiovascular Systems	1/30/2016	118	$8.45	$15.29	80.95%
FLDM	Fluidigm Corporation	1/30/2016	149	$6.71	$8.65	28.91%
LCI	Lannett Company	2/27/2016	39	$25.25	$22.50	-10.89%
NVEE	N5 Global	2/27/2016	47	$20.91	$25.55	22.19%
ENT	Global Eagle Entertainment	2/27/2016	111	$8.97	$6.82	-23.97%
SNCR	Synchronoss Technologies	2/27/2016	36	$27.69	$34.96	26.25%
GOGO	GOGO Inc.	2/27/2016	94	$10.59	$9.74	-8.03%
FLML	FLAMEL TECH	3/25/2016	93	$10.74	$9.83	-8.47%
SEDG	SOLAREDGE TECH	3/25/2016	41	$24.24	$19.41	-19.93%
AAOI	APPLIED OPTOELE	3/25/2016	63	$15.79	$9.12	-42.24%
ACOR	ACORDA THERAPT	3/25/2016	38	$25.79	$26.31	2.02%
VRTU	VIRTUSA CORP	3/25/2016	29	$33.94	$32.49	-4.27%
ACLS	AXCELIS TECH	4/23/2016	344	$2.90	$2.42	-16.55%
BLOX	INFOBLOX INC	4/23/2016	65	$15.37	$18.39	19.65%
CRAY	CRAY INC	4/23/2016	25	$39.18	$31.58	-19.40%
INFN	INFINERA CORP	4/23/2016	68	$14.66	$12.35	-15.76%
SIGM	SIGMA DESIGNS	4/23/2016	150	$6.63	$6.91	4.22%
ALQA	ALLIQUA INC	5/21/2016	775	$1.29	$1.29	0.00%
FIT	FITBIT INC	5/21/2016	68	$14.60	$14.60	0.00%
AMRI	ALBANY MOL RSCH	5/21/2016	72	$13.72	$13.72	0.00%
ELMD	ELECTROMED INC	5/21/2016	243	$4.10	$4.10	0.00%
XCRA	XCERRA CORP	5/21/2016	166	$6.01	$6.01	0.00%
	Picks					-0.13%

This will be my last post on this site......but I will leave you with this. The above group of screen picks are up a total of 59.47% since the day that group of picks was posted in May of 2016.

Of the group, CGNT is up 85.44%, CSII is up 280%, NVEE is up 97.27%, AAOI is up 544.84%, ACLS is up 717.24%, amongst others.
THAT's the way you make money. You just need to work at it.

Take care all.

If any of you want to make serious money in the market, look no further than the offshore drilling sector. It is the most undervalued sector right now at a time where the market is so overvalued. Offshore drilling companies are being priced at bankruptcy levels amd a fraction of their book value. This is way oversold. The competition from shale oil and low oil prices and low day rates have contributed to this downfall, but rest assured in the next 2-3 years, the ones who invest now will make a killing.

Offshore drilling accounts for 30% of the worlds oil and oil is not going anywhere. The world needs it and shale wont be able to supply the oncoming demand. Some of these companies such as ESV have strong balance sheets and a good backlog of contracts as well. ESV is my 2-3 year pick and the recovery has already begun. Oil is steadily rising and ESV is picking up more and more contracts. Thank me later.

Quote: steeldco

This will be my last post on this site......but I will leave you with this. The above group of screen picks are up a total of 59.47% since the day that group of picks was posted in May of 2016.

Take care all.

Take care, Steel. I enjoyed following this thread as well as your MLB picks thread. Thank you for sharing your insights with us. You'll be missed.

i thought you guys might enjoy reading this story about a guy who has made big bucks day trading the last 5 years by shorting the volatility indexes

i know many criticize the new york times, but to me, their publication of this story gives it credibility that i would not assume for example if it was published by forbes.

i'm not recommending this by any means

but it was a very interesting read

his linked twitter feed shows his trades. i'm not sure how quickly he posts them after trading. i doubt very quickly.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/28/business/dealbook/vix-trading.html

https://twitter.com/SethCL?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor

interesting to look at the 5 day chart of tvix from yahoo finance. every time it spikes up it comes down. pretty much the same for longer time periods. of course, if there is a very serious event causing world turmoil it won't come down quickly and those short could lose bundles.

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TVIX/