Question for the AP crew

Quote: Hunterhill

Well They have both made made in the 7 figures from gambling,I don`t know how much of that came from roulette.

No exactly validating Kens request for accreditation, I would think.

Quote: Hunterhill

So Ken are you saying that you are a lifetime winning roulette player? I`m not being sarcastic ,I just want to make sure I understand where you`re coming from.
I do know 2 players that have made a small fortune from roulette so i`m just curious.

Hmmm, well ya have to be careful with the wording. Granted, I have answered this ALREADY but I'll try to do so again.

Lifetime? Real close. Why the goofy answer Ken? In the past 5 years of play (est.), I am WAY UP (roulette) but the prior years because of LOTS of losses, probably not up over my 'lifetime' of play BUT I am getting closer as each year passes. Trial and error has helped me close that gap.

Ken

Quote: buzzpaff

No exactly validating Kens request for accreditation, I would think.

You are correct.

Ken

Thanks for your reply.I always keep an open mind ,People that say things are impossible are often overlooking many great opportunities.
Never say Never.

Quote: Hunterhill

Thanks for your reply.I always keep an open mind ,People that say things are impossible are often overlooking many great opportunities.
Never say Never.

Half correct. The other half? People that throw in the towel after only playing/reading/studying/testing/tweaking roulette for a total of 9 hours......those are the folks that overlook the opportunities of roulette. Glad it aint me.

Ken

Since you are still behind lifetime, can you estimate how many hours you have invested in Rouletter, including research, tweaking , playing , etc. If you love roulette, than the money becomes secondary at some point. I am more curious about the hours invested, than the return on the dollar>

Quote: buzzpaff

Since you are still behind lifetime, can you estimate how many hours you have invested in Rouletter, including research, tweaking , playing , etc. If you love roulette, than the money becomes secondary at some point. I am more curious about the hours invested, than the return on the dollar>

WOW, good question....hours? Keep in mind, this is a rough estimate.

I'll say 12 years invested..... 65 hours per week (everything included).

Ken

Quote: mrjjj

WOW, good question....hours? Keep in mind, this is a rough estimate.

I'll say 12 years invested..... 65 hours per week (everything included).

Ken

Over 40,000 hours. A far cry from 9. Thats roulette ONLY, no other casino game.

Ken

Quote: mrjjj

Over 40,000 hours. A far cry from 9. Thats roulette ONLY, no other casino game.

Ken

No one can say you are not dedicated, that's for sure.

I test/play roulette on Christmas.

Just today, I spent over two hours at the printers. I put together my mini-note books which I need for most of my methods. There is LOTS of prep work I do. Lots of reading, I make sure all 'what if' situations are covered for whatever method I happen to be getting ready for etc.

Plus posting on boards, moderating, playing at DublinBet (practice money), I had an appointment last Tuesday with a tax attorney regarding roulette, I am in constant contact (via email) with supervisors at the local casino here, it goes on and on.

Ken

http://thedealerslounge.yuku.com/ <<< This is an interesting board to read. Not alot of postings but fun to check out.


http://krigman.casinocitytimes.com/archives/ <<< Cool articles. I mostly look for the roulette related stuff.

Ken

Quote: mrjjj

Over 40,000 hours. A far cry from 9. Thats roulette ONLY, no other casino game.

That's the equivalent of 20 years at a full-time job: 40 hours/week, 50 weeks/year. At the near-median salary of $50,000/year (for a worker with a bachelor's degree), you would have earned $1,000,000 in that time. In a previous post, you admitted that you were "probably not up over my 'lifetime' of play BUT I am getting closer as each year passes."

Please stop gambling and seek help.

Quote: MathExtremist

Please stop gambling and seek help.

Ken's problem was he never practiced at home, he just
played. Since he started taking it seriously he's killed
the game in the last 5 years. I have no doubt he'll pass
his losses. I'll say this about him, he's the most honest
person I know, if you ask a question, he'll give you an
honest answer.

Quote: MathExtremist

That's the equivalent of 20 years at a full-time job: 40 hours/week, 50 weeks/year. At the near-median salary of $50,000/year (for a worker with a bachelor's degree), you would have earned $1,000,000 in that time. In a previous post, you admitted that you were "probably not up over my 'lifetime' of play BUT I am getting closer as each year passes."

Please stop gambling and seek help.

Always a hater in the crowd. I was asked a question and I answered it. Call it gambling, it is AP, its not AP.....whatever.

I won't apologize for doing 'well' with this game, aint gonna happen, stop waiting for it.

Ken

Quote: mrjjj

Always a hater in the crowd. I was asked a question and I answered it. Call it gambling, it is AP, its not AP.....whatever.

I won't apologize for doing 'well' with this game, aint gonna happen, stop waiting for it.

Ken

I'm not asking for an apology, and I'm not hating anything either. I'm merely suggesting that spending 65 hours per week for 12 years (your numbers) playing and/or thinking about roulette is indicative of a pathological gambling addiction and warrants treatment. But first you have to admit that spending 65 hours per week with roulette is unhealthy. I'm not a therapist, but I do know several of the screens used in this field. Please see:
http://www.stopgamblingnow.com/sogs_print.htm
http://www.stopgamblingnow.com/dsm_iv.htm

Quote: MathExtremist

But first you have to admit that spending 65 hours per week with roulette is unhealthy.

You hear that, Ken? You're doomed. Quit playing, quit
making money. Its your only chance...

Ken is okay. This lady is not.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UpilMTOtC1A

Quote: EvenBob

You hear that, Ken? You're doomed. Quit playing, quit
making money. Its your only chance...

Bob, have you READ what Ken wrote? He has played or studied for FORTY THOUSAND HOURS!!!!!! And even by his own accounts he is likely still down a little. FORTY THOUSAND HOURS!!!! So overall he hasn't made any money. And has spent FORTY THOUSAND HOURS losing. If you started today, did not take ONE SECOND off, you would need to play around FOUR AND A HALF YEARS to get to the point where he is 'almost even'!!!

FORTY THOUSAND HOURS
FORTY THOUSAND HOURS

Quote: SOOPOO

Bob, have you READ what Ken wrote?

The majority of the money was lost in the 7 years he
played before he figured the game out. He's been
doing very well the last 5 years. Its like a guy who
goes to medical school and owes $300K when he
gets out. He hasn't made any money yet, would
your advice to him be to quit and get another
job? Ken is doing fine. learn to live with it.

deleted

Forty thousand hours is about 20 years of full time working. Just saying ...

Have you never heard the expression " a labor of love" ?

AP Craps Play???

Playing Craps yesterday; guy next to me buys in for $800 across ($125 on 4,5,9,10) with ($150 on 6,8).

After I hit 3 box numbers successively; Certain "events" happened at the Craps table and I "KNEW" my next throw would be a "7". I called "OFF" all my bets and hopped the 7's for $5 each with a $5 Horn. I told the guy next to me with $800 on the table that I would either pass the Dice to him or not throw the Dice again unless he called his bets "OFF". He reluctantly called OFF his bets; my next roll was a "7". Pit Boss was very upset!

$800 Across Guy thanked me profusely and gave me a $50 tip.

Does this qualify as an AP play?

deleted

deleted

Quote: jc2286

For the specific case I'm thinking of (which I do weekly), I'm actually able to convert my comps into more cash than I lose at the table in order to earn them... so it's actually a net positive cash flow.

If the financial "edge" depends on comps, I would say the AP designation is not justified. After all, those "blueies" bused in from the retirement home often end the year in the plus column but no one would say those elderly Bingo Daubers are Advantage Players.

I would say an "AP" designation has to go to someone able to overcome the House Edge through some means other than the valuation of comps. Losing a bundle at roulette but drinking a top shelf brand all night long is not an Advantage Play.

" Losing a bundle at roulette but drinking a top shelf brand all night long is not an Advantage Play. "

But it sure sounds like a hell of a lot more fun than counting cards. LOL

Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: mrjjj

"nor am I saying it is easy to consistently see a dealers hole card" >>> WHAT?? This is the first time I have read of this, you're throwing SEEING the hole card in the MIX of blackjack AP? This is what you guys brag about.....this is what you pin your hopes/dreams on?

WOW, I'll stick with roulette.

READ Ken..... Hole carding is a term used in 3 card poker, not blackjack.
Counting is term used for blackjack.

Okay just to clear some things up...hole-carding in Blackjack is a legitimate advantage play employed by many people, it is just not common and the opportunities are rare. Whereas almost every blackjack game out there is susceptible to counting to one degree or another, hole-carding requires a sloppy dealer with some kind of vulnerability. It involves a lot of scouting to find these dealers, and once you find them you have to know the correct strategy to take advantage of the information you have. However, it comes with a huge player edge, and once you have found a favorable situation, you can flat-bet as much as you can afford, so it's much harder to detect (compared to straight counting).

As to the nature of "proof of AP" or whatever this silliness is...first we'd have to agree on what we're "proving."
Hypothesis A) A player using the correct betting and playing strategy can beat theoretically the game of blackjack with card counting.
Hypothesis B) Under real-world conditions, it is possible to beat the game of Blackjack in the long run (i.e., show a net profit over a large enough sample size to make it improbable you were just lucky).
Hypothesis C) There are other advantage play techniques that, under the right conditions, allow you to beat a very small number of casino games in the long run.
Hypothesis D) There are people who support themselves on the income gathered via card counting and these other advantage plays.

Which of the above do you disagree with, Ken? What would be acceptable proof? If you disagree with (A), then there's no use continuing the conversation, it's a mathematical fact.

(D) is essentially unprovable over the internet, because there is no way to verify anything unless you know someone personally, and have known them for a reasonable amount of time (years). No one is going to post their bank account information. Even if they did, it wouldn't prove where the money came from. Gambling winnings would show up as cash deposits, but that money could have come from drug dealing, tips from waiting tables, panhandling, busking, etc.

I could try to prove (B) by posting my gambling spreadsheet (with casino names redacted) showing my meager lifetime win of less than $7,000 since I started counting cards in September. Yet this is meaningless as the same spreadsheet shows a similar win on Craps, over which I acknowledge I have no edge. The sample sizes for each are too small to "prove" anything within a reasonable confidence interval. Even if that weren't true, you'd have to trust I didn't just make up the numbers.

I guess what I'm getting at is the whole discussion is pointless. And here I've just wasted part of my day typing this up.

deleted

Quote: SOOPOO

Bob, have you READ what Ken wrote? He has played or studied for FORTY THOUSAND HOURS!!!!!! And even by his own accounts he is likely still down a little. FORTY THOUSAND HOURS!!!! So overall he hasn't made any money. And has spent FORTY THOUSAND HOURS losing. If you started today, did not take ONE SECOND off, you would need to play around FOUR AND A HALF YEARS to get to the point where he is 'almost even'!!!

FORTY THOUSAND HOURS
FORTY THOUSAND HOURS

"And has spent FORTY THOUSAND HOURS losing" >>> Please watch your wording, thank you. I did not say, 40,000 hours of PLAYING, I said it is the TOTAL of everything roulette related and its funny how I dont get the CREDIT for the last 5 years. Hmmmm



Ken

Quote: MathExtremist

I'm not asking for an apology, and I'm not hating anything either. I'm merely suggesting that spending 65 hours per week for 12 years (your numbers) playing and/or thinking about roulette is indicative of a pathological gambling addiction and warrants treatment. But first you have to admit that spending 65 hours per week with roulette is unhealthy. I'm not a therapist, but I do know several of the screens used in this field. Please see:
http://www.stopgamblingnow.com/sogs_print.htm
http://www.stopgamblingnow.com/dsm_iv.htm

Is this rule the same for everyone? Meaning, lets say there was a member here that counted cards, a real AP (cough) man!!

....but he was spending 65 hours per week doing so, does he also 'need help'?

Ken

Quote: rainman

Ken is okay. This lady is not.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UpilMTOtC1A

I've done threads on this (not here) a couple times.

Ken

Quote: mrjjj

Is this rule the same for everyone? Meaning, lets say there was a member here that counted cards, a real AP (cough) man!!
but he was spending 65 hours per week doing so, does he also 'need help'?

Nice catch, Ken, I totally missed it. 65 hours a week is
nothing for a card counter, shouldn't he be seeing
a therapist for his 'problem' too? Of course not, counting
is accepted, its mainstream. Its only the renegade's
and weirdo roulette players that are whacko.

Quote: AcesAndEights

Okay just to clear some things up...hole-carding in Blackjack is a legitimate advantage play employed by many people, it is just not common and the opportunities are rare. Whereas almost every blackjack game out there is susceptible to counting to one degree or another, hole-carding requires a sloppy dealer with some kind of vulnerability. It involves a lot of scouting to find these dealers, and once you find them you have to know the correct strategy to take advantage of the information you have. However, it comes with a huge player edge, and once you have found a favorable situation, you can flat-bet as much as you can afford, so it's much harder to detect (compared to straight counting).

As to the nature of "proof of AP" or whatever this silliness is...first we'd have to agree on what we're "proving."
Hypothesis A) A player using the correct betting and playing strategy can beat theoretically the game of blackjack with card counting.
Hypothesis B) Under real-world conditions, it is possible to beat the game of Blackjack in the long run (i.e., show a net profit over a large enough sample size to make it improbable you were just lucky).
Hypothesis C) There are other advantage play techniques that, under the right conditions, allow you to beat a very small number of casino games in the long run.
Hypothesis D) There are people who support themselves on the income gathered via card counting and these other advantage plays.

Which of the above do you disagree with, Ken? What would be acceptable proof? If you disagree with (A), then there's no use continuing the conversation, it's a mathematical fact.

(D) is essentially unprovable over the internet, because there is no way to verify anything unless you know someone personally, and have known them for a reasonable amount of time (years). No one is going to post their bank account information. Even if they did, it wouldn't prove where the money came from. Gambling winnings would show up as cash deposits, but that money could have come from drug dealing, tips from waiting tables, panhandling, busking, etc.

I could try to prove (B) by posting my gambling spreadsheet (with casino names redacted) showing my meager lifetime win of less than $7,000 since I started counting cards in September. Yet this is meaningless as the same spreadsheet shows a similar win on Craps, over which I acknowledge I have no edge. The sample sizes for each are too small to "prove" anything within a reasonable confidence interval. Even if that weren't true, you'd have to trust I didn't just make up the numbers.

I guess what I'm getting at is the whole discussion is pointless. And here I've just wasted part of my day typing this up.

Great subject, I will say that. You are missing my point. You have posted regarding......what AP is and the benefits of it, I could careless. My question is, can you SHOW ME PROOF that you do 'well' with AP? Any Joe Smith here can say they are an AP and make a killing off it. At that point, all the non-AP guys are suppose to bow down or something.


Ken

Ken , the mistake was yours. testing you theories in casinos from the git-go instead of simulations or research.
Most people are unaware of this and will discount the last 5 years .

Quote: buzzpaff

Ken , the mistake was yours. testing you theories in casinos from the git-go instead of simulations or research.
Most people are unaware of this and will discount the last 5 years .

Most people *HERE* would 'discount' any profit in the last 5 years regardless. Thats fine. It might seem like I care but honestly, I care about MY numbers, not yours.

Ken

Quote: mrjjj

"And has spent FORTY THOUSAND HOURS losing" >>> Please watch your wording, thank you. I did not say, 40,000 hours of PLAYING, I said it is the TOTAL of everything roulette related and its funny how I dont get the CREDIT for the last 5 years. Hmmmm



Ken

I said you have played OR STUDIED for 40,000 hours.... Geez... please at LEAST be able to read.... (cough)

Quote: Tiltpoul

Casinos treat roulette like Blackjack. There are a LOT of AP's out there on roulette, so determining the HE on roulette is nearly impossible. Each bet on roulette carries a different weight, and an AP uses variations on the wheel and movements to cut that HE to a player advantage. I couldn't possibly begin to understand how an AP gets an advantage on roulette, and the casinos don't want to reward players too much.

Ask any pit boss which table game gets the highest comp ratings for players...

A player advantage in Roulette? Surely, you're joking.

Quote: doubleluck

A player advantage in Roulette? Surely, you're joking.

Precognition? Psychokinesis? Or just enter the casino in a worn, shiny suit and sweat alot? (Croupier).

Quote: SOOPOO

I said you have played OR STUDIED for 40,000 hours.... Geez... please at LEAST be able to read.... (cough)

GEEEEEEEEZ, is that and/or, or just...or? You cant win but I appreciate your effort. 5 hours down, 4 to go? (lol)


Ken

How many members are on this board (active)? I can count on ONE hand the number I am impressed with. The rest.....(lol).......throw the small fish back in.


This is a catch & release board, just sayin.

Ken

Your signature line is longer than your posts........ fortunately.

Quote: doubleluck

A player advantage in Roulette? Surely, you're joking.

One of the great lessons I've learned is that every single person is different. There are some people that can present a logical argument in an attempt to persuade others to their side; most people, though, have no interest in listening to what others have to say. When taken to the extreme, the best thing to do is simply agree...

Read my bio line... that should give you the answer.

Quote: FleaStiff

Your signature line is longer than your posts........ fortunately.

Hey FleaStiff, not to change the subject but do you live on the east coast, near AC?

Ken

Quote: mrjjj

My question is, can you SHOW ME PROOF that you do 'well' with AP? Any Joe Smith here can say they are an AP and make a killing off it.

That was exactly my point. It's impossible, in this forum (or any other internet forum, really), to show that. On to another day, I suppose....

deleted

Quote: Ibeatyouraces

Nobody has to prove they make money as an AP or whatever. Only prove their system/"method" beats an unbeatable game over many millions of plays (not one hour a day, twice a week), which we all know they cannot.

YES......absolutely an AP (cough) guy has to prove he does 'well' with their game of choice.

Ken