mrjjj
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June 16th, 2012 at 4:50:11 PM permalink
I thought about this while posting in another thread.

The question is for all the AP guys except for roulette. Do you feel a person can obtain an edge (AP) in roulette?

OR...no way.


Ken
Ibeatyouraces
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June 16th, 2012 at 4:59:32 PM permalink
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CrapsForever
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June 16th, 2012 at 5:00:29 PM permalink
Quote: mrjjj

I thought about this while posting in another thread.

The question is for all the AP guys except for roulette. Do you feel a person can obtain an edge (AP) in roulette?

OR...no way.


Ken



I have met a couple of people who make their living playing Roulette so.....the answer is YES!
Craps is the most "Jekyll and Hyde" casino game ever invented!
buzzpaff
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June 16th, 2012 at 5:02:49 PM permalink
Both those people are confused, so the answer is NO !
mrjjj
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June 16th, 2012 at 5:05:17 PM permalink
Quote: buzzpaff

Both those people are confused, so the answer is NO !




.....but you are an AP guy with other game(s), correct?

Ken
Nareed
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June 16th, 2012 at 5:07:01 PM permalink
Quote: buzzpaff

Both those people are confused, so the answer is NO !



Sorry, Buzz, you're wrong.

Roulette is an AP play for every casino that offers it.

So there :P
Donald Trump is a fucking criminal
Ibeatyouraces
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June 16th, 2012 at 5:28:56 PM permalink
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FleaStiff
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June 16th, 2012 at 5:32:34 PM permalink
Quote: CrapsForever

I have met a couple of people who make their living playing Roulette so.....the answer is YES!


I have met a couple of people who own the Brooklyn Bridge. At least that is what they told me.
CrapsForever
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June 16th, 2012 at 5:40:55 PM permalink
Quote: Ibeatyouraces

AP's play with a distinct mathematical edge over the game they are playing. Getting "lucky" or sustantaining positive variance and winning for a while does not make you an AP. That said, are there people making money off roulette? Maybe. Are they APing it? Doubtful.



Interesting Theory!

Question: If a person is "lucky" playing Roulette twice a week for over a year and lives solely off of the earnings on Roulette, does this qualify him as an AP Player or just lucky?
Craps is the most "Jekyll and Hyde" casino game ever invented!
rainman
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June 16th, 2012 at 5:43:34 PM permalink
Quote: FleaStiff

I have met a couple of people who own the Brooklyn Bridge. At least that is what they told me.



I own that bridge. If your interested in purchasing it I could cut you a deal.
CrapsForever
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June 16th, 2012 at 5:50:44 PM permalink
Anybody can be an "AP" in anything. One of my closest friends was an AP in Carribean Stud Poker for over a year period winning anywhere from $500 - $9,500 PROFIT bi-weekly in casinos all over. I sat next to him on numerous occasions and saw him winning ridiculous money off his normal $500 buy-in. He taught me his entire "system" which is Non-scientific; I NEVER won a $1 playing it.

Some may consider him LUCKY, when you win more than 80% of the time over a year period winning more than an average profit of $2,500 off a $500 buy-in over a year period; I consider you an "AP"!
Craps is the most "Jekyll and Hyde" casino game ever invented!
mrjjj
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June 16th, 2012 at 5:58:01 PM permalink
Quote: CrapsForever

Interesting Theory!

Question: If a person is "lucky" playing Roulette twice a week for over a year and lives solely off of the earnings on Roulette, does this qualify him as an AP Player or just lucky?




I have gone down this road 400 times.

Ken
CrapsForever
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June 16th, 2012 at 6:11:01 PM permalink
Quote: mrjjj

I have gone down this road 400 times.

Ken



Some things are impossible to explain:

*I played Craps at Dover Downs a couple weeks ago and told everyone playing the Pass Line to bet the Any Craps because I throw lots of Horns, nobody listened...the very first time I touched the dice at a casino I had never played in before....I proceeded to throw 4 Ace/Deuces in a row.

**I played Craps at Hollywood Casino in Charles Town, WV a couple weeks ago, I tipped the dealers before throwing the Dice and pleaded that they should not "play" with the dice before sending it back to me. In a 2 hour period, the dice were sent back to the shooter including myself 6 times with the 7's up on the Dice. I called my bets OFF each time....4 times...the 7 came right back on the next throw...the other 2 times...I was the shooter and changed the dice (Pitboss got incensed) before throwing the dice and hitting the point right back.

Don't EVER accept dice from a dealer who "plays" with them and has the 7's facing up before sending it to you to shoot, ALWAYS change the dice. Your bankroll will thank you! I've been tracking this for years....the results are unbelievable!
Craps is the most "Jekyll and Hyde" casino game ever invented!
Ibeatyouraces
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June 16th, 2012 at 6:26:59 PM permalink
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Ibeatyouraces
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June 16th, 2012 at 6:35:35 PM permalink
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CrapsForever
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June 16th, 2012 at 6:52:28 PM permalink
Quote: Ibeatyouraces

I'd like to see him play every day for 6 hours a day and see if he can keep it up.



Why would he need to play everyday for 6 hours when he's making a KILLING playing twice a week for a few hours each session?

AP Players don't kill the golden goose! My close friend who was an AP Caribbean Stud Poker player for over a year only played an average of once every 2 weeks. If I had his "LUCK", I would probably be in a Casino damn near everyday. That's why I am NOT an AP Player. I have ZERO discipline and based on the HORRENDOUS decisions I have made "gambling on fools" on the craps tables the past few weeks; I will NEVER learn the discipline it takes to make a decent living throwing dice.

FYI, I will be back at Hollywood Casino, WV this week. I met a few SMART Craps players there a couple of weeks ago, very impressed with a few people who "think outside the box"!
Craps is the most "Jekyll and Hyde" casino game ever invented!
buzzpaff
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June 16th, 2012 at 7:12:14 PM permalink
Quote: mrjjj

.....but you are an AP guy with other game(s), correct?

Ken




Once again you are confused. NO, I am not ,nor ever have I stated that I was !
buzzpaff
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June 16th, 2012 at 7:13:34 PM permalink
" FYI, I will be back at Hollywood Casino, WV this week. I met a few SMART Craps players there a couple of weeks ago, very impressed with a few people who "think outside the box"! "

And outside their wallets, too !
Ibeatyouraces
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June 16th, 2012 at 7:14:17 PM permalink
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Ibeatyouraces
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June 16th, 2012 at 7:15:38 PM permalink
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CrapsForever
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June 16th, 2012 at 7:32:26 PM permalink
Quote: Ibeatyouraces

You say you don't have your friends "luck" yet you call him an AP. You also said you did what he did at CS and it didn't work. Doesn't that tell you something? Why don't you bet along with your roulette friend also? And people wonder why we are skeptical. Good luck at Hollywood though.

BTW, as an AP, I don't believe in luck.



My Caribbean Stud friend taught 5 of his friends including myself his "system", it takes ridiculous patience and forces you to not believe anything Math based. He bets half his entire bankroll based on "something that is non-scientific" but it works for him almost all the time! I considered him an AP during his year long triumph at the tables due to his tremendous discipline and the fact that all his bets are robotic but he was also a lucky SOB. You don't continue winning a random game like CS without some incredible luck involved.

The Roulette "system" takes ridiculous patience.....I know a person who posted one of the "winning" Roulette "systems" here on the WOV forum in the past few months but they were chastised and the person no longer posts here. if you do a little research and have lots of patience....the answer is right in front of you. I can't play Roulette for more than 20 minutes...I find it boring!

My issue with Craps is not playing enough and not being disciplined enough to not bet on random people. I am trying my best to stop with the ADD and only bet on my rolls; once I can accomplish that....the sky is the limit!
Craps is the most "Jekyll and Hyde" casino game ever invented!
buzzpaff
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June 16th, 2012 at 7:35:43 PM permalink
" My issue with Craps is not playing enough and not being disciplined enough to not bet on random people. I am trying my best to stop with the ADD and only bet on my rolls; once I can accomplish that....the sky is the limit! "

I hope you have someone else pack your parachute !
CrapsForever
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June 16th, 2012 at 7:43:24 PM permalink
Simple exercise to let you know you might be a "good" craps shooter. Write down the total Profit/Loss on solely your rolls in each of your craps sessions over an extended period of time. Now...let's assume you had the discipline to not bet on anybody else's roll during your entire craps sessions. The answer is right there in front of you....
Craps is the most "Jekyll and Hyde" casino game ever invented!
buzzpaff
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June 16th, 2012 at 7:48:37 PM permalink
Quote: CrapsForever

Simple exercise to let you know you might be a "good" craps shooter. Write down the total Profit/Loss on solely your rolls in each of your craps sessions over an extended period of time. Now...let's assume you had the discipline to not bet on anybody else's roll during your entire craps sessions. The answer is right there in front of you....



But some days I set dice properly and some days not. Won't that affect my results ?
Ibeatyouraces
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June 16th, 2012 at 7:50:57 PM permalink
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buzzpaff
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June 16th, 2012 at 7:52:33 PM permalink
" I've been very damn "lucky" on vp, ask Teddys. "

As lucky at teddys has been unlucky on BJ.. Really ??
Ibeatyouraces
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June 16th, 2012 at 7:52:56 PM permalink
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Ibeatyouraces
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June 16th, 2012 at 7:54:29 PM permalink
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CrapsForever
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June 16th, 2012 at 7:55:50 PM permalink
Quote: buzzpaff

But some days I set dice properly and some days not. Won't that affect my results ?



Everybody is different. I'm either HOT or COLD. I can tell when I go cold and I will not touch the dice for the rest of the day on that table. It's IMPOSSIBLE to explain but I usually know when I am going to 7-out so my bets are almost always OFF when I 7-out. I also hop the 7's when I am about to 7-out so I am usually up significantly on my rolls during my craps session. I lose because I bet like a freaking moron on damn near every shooter.

I don't want to hijack this thread so I'll stop now.
Craps is the most "Jekyll and Hyde" casino game ever invented!
CrapsForever
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June 16th, 2012 at 8:04:03 PM permalink
Quote: Ibeatyouraces

If they're rotten rollers, bet against them :)



That does not work for me. Once I start betting...Don't Pass/Pass on other shooters...I get ADD and go CRAZY betting up to $50 on each shooter and my bankroll can't afford that. I just want to be on a table with a few people, hopefully on the same half side of the table (I Hate playing by myself) and bet only on my rolls. I like Casinos that have plenty of craps tables that don't fill up too quickly and stay at $10.

Harrington and Dover Downs were way too packed (Not returning to either). I had great rolls but lost RIDICULOUS money betting on so many fools. Hollywood Casino, WV was a much better environment and I will continue playing there. Once I start winning consistently there....I will no longer post about playing there.. :-)
Craps is the most "Jekyll and Hyde" casino game ever invented!
duckmankilla
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June 16th, 2012 at 8:22:47 PM permalink
Quote: CrapsForever

Everybody is different. I'm either HOT or COLD. I can tell when I go cold and I will not touch the dice for the rest of the day on that table. It's IMPOSSIBLE to explain but I usually know when I am going to 7-out so my bets are almost always OFF when I 7-out. I also hop the 7's when I am about to 7-out so I am usually up significantly on my rolls during my craps session. I lose because I bet like a freaking moron on damn near every shooter.

I don't want to hijack this thread so I'll stop now.



If you usually know when you are going to seven out, why wouldn't you take your bets down and just lay the 6 or 8 for a bunch of money and win every time? Craps players have such selective memories it is ridiculous. Any time a shooter sevens out and says "I knew I was going to throw that", why didn't they just bet the other side? If you are so confident that a seven is coming any time the dealer plays with the dice, the feeling isnt right, a new player puts down a bet mid-roll, or a male new to the game steps up to the table, how can you lose? Are you just that stubborn that you refuse to lay numbers and are willing to lose your own money just to get angry and blame the casino out of spite for your losses? Just curious.
CrapsForever
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June 16th, 2012 at 8:36:19 PM permalink
Quote: duckmankilla

If you usually know when you are going to seven out, why wouldn't you take your bets down and just lay the 6 or 8 for a bunch of money and win every time? Craps players have such selective memories it is ridiculous and any time a shooter sevens out and says "I knew I was going to throw that" is an idiot for not betting the other side. If you are so confident that a seven is coming any time the dealer plays with the dice or the feeling isnt right or a new shooter puts down a bet or a male new to the game steps up to the table, how can you lose? Are you just that stubborn that you refuse to lay numbers and are willing to lose your own money just to get angry and blame the casino out of spite? Just curious.



Reading is Fundamental. Turning my Bets "OFF" and Hopping the 7's pays more than laying the 6 or 8. Re-read what I wrote.
Craps is the most "Jekyll and Hyde" casino game ever invented!
mrjjj
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June 16th, 2012 at 9:39:17 PM permalink
Quote: buzzpaff

Once again you are confused. NO, I am not ,nor ever have I stated that I was !




Thats fine (no problem) but thats who the question was for.

Ken
SOOPOO
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June 17th, 2012 at 4:33:04 AM permalink
Quote: mrjjj

I thought about this while posting in another thread.
The question is for all the AP guys except for roulette. Do you feel a person can obtain an edge (AP) in roulette?
OR...no way.Ken



Only if you can identify a biased wheel. Or something that would temporarily make one number more prevalent than another, such as 'goo' in a slot. Or if you have a dealer who is cheating for/with you, by overpaying or not properly clearing a losing bet.
I do not know how comps are awarded at roulette, but also perhaps there are some 'bonus days' or the like where you can mitigate your losses with comp winnings, but I doubt it.
But there is no system or method that will allow AP at an unbiased wheel.
mrjjj
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June 17th, 2012 at 7:07:44 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Only if you can identify a biased wheel. Or something that would temporarily make one number more prevalent than another, such as 'goo' in a slot. Or if you have a dealer who is cheating for/with you, by overpaying or not properly clearing a losing bet.
I do not know how comps are awarded at roulette, but also perhaps there are some 'bonus days' or the like where you can mitigate your losses with comp winnings, but I doubt it.
But there is no system or method that will allow AP at an unbiased wheel.




"I do not know how comps are awarded at roulette" >>> Nor do I.

Ken
Ibeatyouraces
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June 17th, 2012 at 7:22:45 AM permalink
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EvenBob
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June 17th, 2012 at 7:38:40 AM permalink
Quote: mrjjj

"I do not know how comps are awarded at roulette" >>> Nor do I.

Ken



I've never tried, but I know they're hard to get at
roulette. Most people don't play long enough to get
rated and the pit is very lazy in keeping track. You
have to keep on them all the time, tell them what
your average bet is and how long you've been playing
and even then you won't get squat. When they ask
me for a players card, many times I say whats the point,
you don't pay diddly in comps for roulette. Never
once have I got an argument and most of the time
they agree with me.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
Tiltpoul
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June 17th, 2012 at 7:52:42 AM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

I've never tried, but I know they're hard to get at roulette. Most people don't play long enough to get rated and the pit is very lazy in keeping track. You have to keep on them all the time, tell them what your average bet is and how long you've been playing and even then you won't get squat. When they ask me for a players card, many times I say whats the point, you don't pay diddly in comps for roulette. Never once have I got an argument and most of the time they agree with me.



Casinos treat roulette like Blackjack. There are a LOT of AP's out there on roulette, so determining the HE on roulette is nearly impossible. Each bet on roulette carries a different weight, and an AP uses variations on the wheel and movements to cut that HE to a player advantage. I couldn't possibly begin to understand how an AP gets an advantage on roulette, and the casinos don't want to reward players too much.

Ask any pit boss which table game gets the highest comp ratings for players...
"One out of every four people are [morons]"- Kyle, South Park
Ibeatyouraces
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June 17th, 2012 at 8:10:32 AM permalink
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FleaStiff
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June 17th, 2012 at 8:57:47 AM permalink
Quote: Ibeatyouraces

At one place its Casino War.

Yeah, it makes sense to comp that very well. Its for idiots and newbies to a casino... those are the ones a Casino Manager would want to get well lubricated and flattered.

Now as for this Brooklyn Bridge thing...
I know you make money at it but that does that make you an Advantage Player or just a Lucky Player?

An advantage player has to be at a positive edge for some reason... but how does one surmount a 5.26 percent roulette House Advantage? By seeking Comps??
Ibeatyouraces
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June 17th, 2012 at 9:57:37 AM permalink
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MauiSunset
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June 17th, 2012 at 12:56:20 PM permalink
I've noticed that AP folks are kind of like Ron Paul folks - they really believe in what they believe; to the point of being scary.

Personally I don't buy into AP but I've often wondered if I've every sat next to an AP Roulette player and never realized it!

At least AP folks acknowledge that beating Roulette with math is a waste of time - no amount of money management nor crazy combination of bets will get you past the House Advantage of 5.26% for American wheels. No amount of waiting for "triggers" or until 38 numbers are spun will help you get past the HA.

So all you AP Roulette gamblers out there what does an evening with you sitting next to me at a Roulette table look and feel like?

>Do you take notes?
>Do you keep track of a particular wheel by identifying a mark or scratch and know the statistics to that wheel?
>Do you have an App for your iPhone that you enter the spins and it forecasts the next number?

Honestly I have no idea what you do to prepare for a night at a super busy Roulette table. Occasionally a weird looking dude will hover around the table taking notes for a while and then play while keeping track of every spin. Normally the dealers know the guy and he leaves penniless - I've just assumed he was an AP aficionado; maybe not?

Do you double your bankroll every hour, or every 2 hours or every 4 hours - just what do you feel is "normal" for AP players in a 4 hour session of 100 spins lets say.

Thanks for any input...........

P.S.

I was in Vegas a month ago and played at the Bellagio and they don't care anymore if you have your cell phone running any App you want - they used to be touchy at that but apparently don't care anymore. I don't know about recording the sessions - privacy and all that, but they have no qualms about you opening your cell phone and punching in data. I asked the dealers if they were afraid of folks beating Roulette with a computer - they just laughed....
Boney526
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June 17th, 2012 at 1:26:55 PM permalink
Only through physical means.

(Wheel clocking, Wheel Bias, etc.)

Although I barely consider myself an AP. I don't gamble except with an advantage, so I guess that makes me an AP, but I also rarely gamble because of that. I don't make a living off of it, nor do I have the bankroll to start playing to make a living (or anywhere near). If I can beef up that bankroll over time, maybe I'll start hitting the casinos hard playing poker and blackjack. The only other reason I haven't is because I don't feel I'm skilled enough yet at either game (I think I'm above average at both, but seriously doubt that I have a real advantage yet. Maybe against really bad Poker players, but I'd rather know that I'm very good before I play rather than just above average, because there's a rake to overcome.)



As for the comment about Ron Paul folks (lol I just had to say something about it) I guess I kind of actually agree. I'm a Paul supporter, but I actually read some of the same authors as him, and have a very similar philosophy. I don't hate when people who support him do so blindly, if only because every candidate has those people, but the Ron Paul supporters who are simply dis-enfranchised do make us look nuts. They don't understand the issues, but they so vehimently support them that I can see why we look crazy from the outside.

Not all of us are like that, hell I disagree with Paul often enough (on small issues) and I understand the word compromise a lot better than most of his supporters. I won't compromise my values, but I will compromise with people who have different values. That's why I'm not mad at Rand Paul, like a lot of Ron's supporters. They are different people, and Rand is much more likely to compromise as long as his side gets something big out of it, too. (That's why Ron's budget proposals are either balanced, or cutting at least 1 trillion dollars in a year. Rand's were cut 500 billion or 200 billion. He wanted something to get done, and wanted to show that it could be done relatively easily)


But I do see the parallel. Real APs are APs because they understand the math. "Real Libertarian" Paul supporters support him because they understand and agree with the policies. Other "APs" know the math exists, and other Paul supporters know the policy differences exist.

In both cases it's a matter of study and understanding vs some small amount of reading.
Ibeatyouraces
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June 17th, 2012 at 3:59:09 PM permalink
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Boney526
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June 17th, 2012 at 7:33:12 PM permalink
Quote: Ibeatyouraces

You don't need to know the math to be an AP. All you need to learn are the proper strategies for that particular game. Obviously the easiest example is a flashing dealer at 3cp. The strategy is even on WoO and gives the player up to a 3.48% advantage. How is that hard to understand? You just cannot do these types of things on roulette. Numbers have the same damn chance of coming up every spin unlike in blackjack. If I haven't seen in ace since the shuffle, now it IS more likely I will see one.



Yeah, I misspoke. You don't need to know the math, just the strategies. Someone, or some computer, had to do the math at some point, but you just need to know the strategy which is based on math.
jc2286
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June 18th, 2012 at 8:29:40 AM permalink
Quote: FleaStiff

An advantage player has to be at a positive edge for some reason... but how does one surmount a 5.26 percent roulette House Advantage? By seeking Comps??



Is someone who plays a negative EV$ game, but is able to extract more value from the comps given than money lost, considered an AP? An AP would be anyone who can mathematically net a profit through the casino, not necessarily exclusively through gaming, right?
MauiSunset
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June 18th, 2012 at 8:32:52 AM permalink
Quote: jc2286

Is someone who plays a negative EV$ game, but is able to extract more value from the comps given than money lost, considered an AP? An AP would be anyone who can mathematically net a profit through the casino, not necessarily exclusively through gaming, right?



You get my gold star of the day - I am, after all, an AP player.

Who knew?????
QuadDeuces
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June 18th, 2012 at 8:42:34 AM permalink
Quote: jc2286

Is someone who plays a negative EV$ game, but is able to extract more value from the comps given than money lost, considered an AP? An AP would be anyone who can mathematically net a profit through the casino, not necessarily exclusively through gaming, right?



I feel that this is certainly the case if the comps are worth cash. It's more subjective when the comps are other things. If the player calculates the loss plus the comps is a mathematical net gain to him, and he wouldn't play if that wasn't the case, then I'd consider him an AP.
MathExtremist
MathExtremist
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June 18th, 2012 at 8:43:51 AM permalink
Quote: jc2286

Is someone who plays a negative EV$ game, but is able to extract more value from the comps given than money lost, considered an AP? An AP would be anyone who can mathematically net a profit through the casino, not necessarily exclusively through gaming, right?


That's an awfully loose definition. By that definition, someone who judiciously clips coupons and gets cans of soup at the grocery for less than retail is an AP too. I think AP isn't the right phrase there -- I think "bargain hunter" might be more appropriate. Are you really an AP if you lose $100 on roulette and get a $150 steakhouse comp out of it? Didn't you really just save $50 off your meal? You might have a full belly but you still have $100 less in your wallet than you did when you walked in.

I think if you're going to consider yourself a professional, you need to be getting paid. If you spend all your time in casinos and all you get out of it are free rooms and food, that's a nice free vacation but it's not a living.
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
jc2286
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June 18th, 2012 at 8:46:52 AM permalink
Quote: MathExtremist

That's an awfully loose definition. By that definition, someone who judiciously clips coupons and gets cans of soup at the grocery for less than retail is an AP too. I think AP isn't the right phrase there -- I think "bargain hunter" might be more appropriate. Are you really an AP if you lose $100 on roulette and get a $150 steakhouse comp out of it? Didn't you really just save $50 off your meal? You might have a full belly but you still have $100 less in your wallet than you did when you walked in.

I think if you're going to consider yourself a professional, you need to be getting paid. If you spend all your time in casinos and all you get out of it are free rooms and food, that's a nice free vacation but it's not a living.



For the specific case I'm thinking of (which I do weekly), I'm actually able to convert my comps into more cash than I lose at the table in order to earn them... so it's actually a net positive cash flow.
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