10% cashback
Quote: nyuhoosierGood question! How can the casino afford to offer this?
I'd gather that 1) most people gambling at that Casino don't lose more than $500 in a 24 hour period and 2) some of the ones that do either don't know or don't take advantage of the promotion. However those of us on this board are more observant than most, so we would take advantage of it!
To boil down what I originally posted, I guess the way to look at it is you are placing a $900 bet that pays $1000 on an even money win.
Second, if you only made one bet in blackjack, then the overall player advantage would be about 5%. That is because there is about only a 50% chance of collecting the 10% rebate. If it were not for the max bet, a good strategy would be to parlay your winnings about four times, or go bust trying.
Third, they have offered this promotion for at least two years I think. My webmaster of my Odds site used to play this promotion almost every day for a few months.
However, I don't endorse such blatant promotion abuse. If you're going to play that promotion, my advice is smooth it over a bit.
Assuming the casino is blind as a post and dumb as dirt, each player bets $500 per hand until each either loses all or wins $1000.
Personally I couldn't take advantage of such promotions. My whole trip budget is $1000.
It is always better to make ONE bet of your entire bankroll rather than face that house edge over and over again. Its not always fun though, particularly when that one bet loses.
Quote: gamblerIt sounds like a great way to make money until two big guys in cheap suits escort you to the back room and break your knee caps...
Except that the Wizard's Webmaster did it for months and apparently suffered no ill effects. I figured you were being over the top with your comment, but I would think that play like that would at least get you kicked out after a couple of weeks.
I think that most of Terrible's customers couldn't take advantage of such a promotion... thats probably why they offer it.Quote: NareedPersonally I couldn't take advantage of such promotions. My whole trip budget is $1000.
Quote: WizardIf it were not for the max bet, a good strategy would be to parlay your winnings about four times, or go bust trying.
Would Terrible's allow you to make two concurrent $500 bets? Would that change the overall player advantage of about $5?
Quote: WizardHowever, I don't endorse such blatant promotion abuse
It seems a little strong to call that promotion abuse. I assume your webmaster was playing within the rules laid out for the promotion by the casino. If he had forged copies of a coupon or misrepresented himself, I would go along. Nobody expects gamblers to be guardians of the casinos' bottom line, just as no one expects the casinos to back off someone gambling away his kid's college fund. One party is trying to profit from the other legally.
Regards,
Rob
Quote: nyuhoosierWould Terrible's allow you to make two concurrent $500 bets? Would that change the overall player advantage of about $5?
It seems a little strong to call that promotion abuse. I assume your webmaster was playing within the rules laid out for the promotion by the casino. If he had forged copies of a coupon or misrepresented himself, I would go along. Nobody expects gamblers to be guardians of the casinos' bottom line, just as no one expects the casinos to back off someone gambling away his kid's college fund. One party is trying to profit from the other legally.
You don't need a coupon for this promotion, it is available upon request. I was told there was no minimum action required, so two, or just one, bet would be allowed. However, if your intent is to do this every day, I wouldn't be so obvious about it. My webmaster I think made the opposite mistake of overplaying, to the point where expected loss to the house edge was more than what was gained from the promotion. We had some heated debates about it.
Quote: RobmorrowMaybe I am not calculating the odds correctly, but it seems under this promotion basically, you have roughly 11% player edge over the house, as it's basically a $900 bet paying $1000. What's the point of betting $1000 every day, again, and again if there is no cap on the rebate amount. Couldn't a player just bet for example $50,000 all in one day?
No. To keep this simple, let's say they have a bet on the toss of a coin that pays 1-1. You bet $1,000. You have a 50% chance of winning $1,000, and a 50% chance of losing $900. The player advantage is (.5*1000 + .5*-900)/1000 = 50/1000 = 5%. Some might argue you should divide by 900, because that is all you're putting at risk, which would make the answer 5.55%, but I hate to confuse the issue with that. Also, the max bet there is $500, so nobody is going to get rich on it.
Loved you in Northern Exposure by the way. You ruined the show when you left.
Unfortunately, not the same Rob Morrow you're thinking of.
Rob
When I read that it is 10% cash back for losses over $1000 , I interpret that to mean if you lose $1800 you will receive $80 rebate. You are obviously interpreting it to mean you get $180 rebate. Are you sure that is the correct way to read the rules?
Quote: pacomartin
When I read that it is 10% cash back for losses over $1000 , I interpret that to mean if you lose $1800 you will receive $80 rebate. You are obviously interpreting it to mean you get $180 rebate. Are you sure that is the correct way to read the rules?
Yes, if you lose $1,800, then you would get $180. I personally lost $1100, and they gave me $110. They emphasize the $1000 because the 10% kicks in at that point. For losses of $500-$999 the rebate is 5%. Interestingly, if your loss was $947.37, you have nothing to lose by betting another $52.63. Your net after the rebate would be -$900 without the extra bet, and either -$850 or -$900 with the bet, giving the player a 47.5% advantage (assuming a fair coin flip bet).
Rob
Quote: RobmorrowI think the reason to cap the loss at $1000 per day can be explained this way. For example, if the max bet was $1000, and you lose the first hand, you would have lost $1000 and can collect the $100. However, if you play again the same day another $1000 hand, and win, now you're even, and won't get the $100 bonus any more.
Rob
Rob, I don't think that the motivation for the 24 hour rule was ever in doubt.
My best guess is that Terrible's makes over 85%-90% of their revenue from slots.
Perhaps the number of players who systematically exploit the promotion are so few that they have decided to keep it operative. It actually takes some balls to make $500 plays. If they were $10 bets, then the player grind would balance out the rebate.
Maybe they find that the table game players bring friends or spouses that play slots,
Personally, I would think that the intelligent thing to do would be to limit the cash back to once every 24 hours, and 6-8 times per month. It would slow down the rate of systematic exploitation of the promotion.
I'm not certain its really exploitation and I'm not certain that its even taking place. Lets face it: most casino promotions are of little real value, they are at most teasers. Some are obviously worthless or nearly so, such as a key chain or a pair of dice. Some are a bit more useful to certain gamblers but in general the promotions don't really amount to that proverbial hill of beans.Quote: pacomartinIt would slow down the rate of systematic exploitation of the promotion.
I really doubt Terribles customers stuff a grand's worth of quarters down a slot machine in a day. It may attract the attention of gamblers who are close to losing a grand and decide they might as well stick it out and recoup that ten percent, but I think the offer is largely illusory. Most of the Terribles clientele simply don't qualify.
If they lose a grand in one day, they would most likely be gambling at a place that has better food and drink service.
Quote: FleaStiffI really doubt Terribles customers stuff a grand's worth of quarters down a slot machine in a day. It may attract the attention of gamblers who are close to losing a grand and decide they might as well stick it out and recoup that ten percent, but I think the offer is largely illusory. Most of the Terribles clientele simply don't qualify.
If they lose a grand in one day, they would most likely be gambling at a place that has better food and drink service.
I don't think the slots qualify for the 10% rebate. If you read the ad, it looks like it is only for table games.
I don't think Terribles publishes their numbers. Hooters does, and they make $50K per day, of which 37% is table games. Terribles Casino has more slot machines, but about half as many tables. My guess is that their table revenue is closer to 15% of overall revenue, and their daily gaming revenue is roughly $75K . Maybe they only rebate a few hundred a day, and they believe they are building their client base. They are , after all, just emerging from bankruptcy.
Terribles 965 slots, 9 table games, Sports, and Bingo
Hooters 613 slots, 24 table games, Sports, and 3 poker tables
Quote: pacomartinPersonally, I would think that the intelligent thing to do would be to limit the cash back to once every 24 hours, and 6-8 times per month. It would slow down the rate of systematic exploitation of the promotion.
The more restrictions or rules that are placed on a promotion, the fewer people will use it. Sometimes that's the point, of course, but sometimes the effect is to drive potential customers away. Finding the balance can often be difficult.
Quote: jburgessHow do they accurately track your play? Do they pay back based on your comp rating? If you are making just one $500 bet it’s pretty easy to keep track of. But what if you bought in for $3,000 and made a bunch of $100 bets. It could take you a long time to lose $1000.
As I wrote in my Terrible's review, they rated me accurately, and was told the promo would be good for as little as one bet.
Quote: pacomartinSo it is $1000 on the nose (and not over $1000). If you place $500 on the blackjack table and then double and lose they will return $100? Your whole time spent in the casino could be 5 minutes.
You can lose over $1000 and still get the 10%. In your example, yes, you would get the $100. They may say that next time they will expect more play.
The minimum win is $200 if the point is 4/10 and it 7's out with a loss of $2k.
The max win would be $350 if the point is made and the don't player loses $3500.
of course to implement this plan you would need to walk in with $6500.
Quote: RobmorrowSo what if 12 rolls?
If 12 rolls on the come out the pass loses but the don't pushes. So you lose $500. The odds of this are pretty slim if you are only playing 1 "roll" - which means probably 1 or 2 come out rolls (where 12 would hurt you) even with 3 come out rolls the odds are <10% of it coming up.
If you really want to hedge yourself the pass line player could bet $17 on the 12 for each come out roll. Probably a good idea but it would lower your possible win. Also if the pass line player ultimately loses (which is more probable than the don't pass player losing) then you would be rebated on the $17 bets too (although I really doubt you'd make more then 3 of them).
I might give it a shot next time I go - I read somewhere it says at the pits discretion but if neither of us has a players card from there and have never done the promo before they might go for it if it seems we are unrelated and just hate eachother and want to bet against eachother. The likely win is ~$300 - 17*2 - and the worst it will cost is a couple of lost $17 bets to see if they honor it.
Quote: WizardAs I wrote in my Terrible's review, they rated me accurately, and was told the promo would be good for as little as one bet.
Just saw this thread today. I still don't unbderstand how they come up with it. Do they use theoretical loss or is a pit boss watching your stack at buy-in and color-up? Because if it is based on theoretical loss, could you not actually have a small (or large?) win and still get the rebate?
Quote:
Q:
I’m a little confused about the $100 Terrible’s rebate on losses. How do you determine if and when you reach the loss level? Is it total coin-in regardless of coin-out? Is it total coin-in less any winnings? For example, let’s say you put in a hundred-dollar bill and win $500. Do you take out the $500, put $400 in your pocket, put the original $100 back in, lose it, and consider that the loss of the $100 and get the $100 in free-play from the casino? Or does it work differently? Who determines if, when, and how you’ve lost your original $100?
A:
Yeow! It sounds like you may have been yanked around by deals like this in the past. This type of offer is always vulnerable to fine-print finagling, but that's not the case here. Simply stated, you keep what you win and get a refund on what you lose. We'll discuss below how good this offer really is, but first we need to explain what this question is about.
Las Vegas Advisor members get special offers that we negotiate for them. Most are in our Member Rewards Book (MRB), which contains 130+ coupons for savings on everything from buffets to rooms. But we also release MROs (which stands for "Member Rewards Online"), and a recent online offer from Terrible's that rebates slots or video poker losses over a 24-hour period up to $100 is what's being discussed here. Despite the fact that this is a fantastic play with an expected value of between $37 and $84 (depending on how you play it), there's been quite a bit of confusion about how it works.
The common misunderstandings are thinking that you're allowed to play $100 through only one time (e.g., 80 hands at $1.25 each), that you have to lose the full $100 to get a rebate, and that you should get a rebate on your losing hands even when you cash out a profit. All of these assumptions are incorrect.
This is a straight loss rebate up to $100. That means you can put any amount of money into the machine and play as long as you like. There's no counting winning hands, losing hands, or anything for that matter -- if you lose, you get your money back; if you win, you keep the profit.
The power of this promotion is in the freeroll on losses, in that you get several opportunities to hit something big without risk. Think about how it typically works when you play video poker. You either lose your money, or you hit something big that makes you a winner for that session -- a quad, multiple quads, or even a royal. It works the same way here, only you get your money back if the good result doesn't materialize.
One way to simplify things (and make the accounting easy) is to put exactly $100 into the machine. Then only three things can happen: 1) You lose the entire $100; 2) you lose a portion of the $100, or 3) you win. In the first case, you return to the booth and get back $100 (in free-play). In the second, you return to the booth and get back the amount below $100 that you lost. In the third, you walk away with your $100 intact, plus the extra that you won. It's a powerhouse offer.
So now that you know how to play it, here's how to play it to your best advantage.
The most important thing is to make sure that if you lose, you lose the entire $100. The power of this promotion is in taking it to the limit for the rebate. But how you lose the limit requires a decision. Way back in 1998, the gambling mathematician (and author of our books The Theory of Blackjack and Extra Stuff) Peter Griffin provided an excellent analysis of this proposition. It doesn't apply perfectly here, because the promotion he analyzed allowed only one hour of play (it's 24 hours at Terrible's), but it's close enough. The analysis shows that playing the highest possible denomination yields the greatest expected return, but also reduces your chances of making any profit at all.
The difference is significant. The expected profit for playing 25¢ video poker is $37.50, compared to $84 for playing at the $5 level. However, the probability of finishing ahead (as opposed to just getting the rebate) drops from 41% at quarters to only 13% at $5. It comes down to what's more important to you: time on game or maximizing expected return. Most players are more interested in the former, so it makes sense to play this offer for your normal stakes.
Again, the important thing is not to get caught in the middle of the rebate. If you're playing quarters and find yourself down $60 or $70, switch to dollars for a better chance to hit big or lose it all. And don't forget to stop playing and get your rebate once you're down $100.
This is an excellent deal with very little risk and a very high upside. You can get it, along with many addtional casino-related perks, by becoming and LVA member. Click this link to read more about LVA membership and to sign up for a subscription at ShopLVA.com.
Quote: teddysMore info about the Terrible's promotion:
I would caution anyone attempting to take advantage of this promotion is that Terrible's has a "terrible" reputation for reneging on promotions, canceling them without notice, changing the rules in midstream, and declaring certain players "ineligible" out of the blue. They are dishonorable, unreliable, and untrustworthy, to an extent not seen in Vegas casinos, or indeed, any other business that has existed in the last fifty years.
Quote: mkl654321I would caution anyone attempting to take advantage of this promotion is that Terrible's has a "terrible" reputation for reneging on promotions, canceling them without notice, changing the rules in midstream, and declaring certain players "ineligible" out of the blue. They are dishonorable, unreliable, and untrustworthy, to an extent not seen in Vegas casinos, or indeed, any other business that has existed in the last fifty years.
Now how would you know that--you don't even live there and you have no clue as to what they do on a daily basis.
1. Name the number of & name of the promotions they "reneged" on and identify the dates.
2. Name the number of & the name of the promotions they "cancelled" and identify the dates.
3. Identify and confirm the promotions where the rules were changed midstream, then identify the rule changes and dates of action.
4. Name the players who were "declared ineliglble" then name the promotions involved along with the dates.
5. Now explain why they're still in business with all the savvy locals around that you seem to admire, when they do nothing right, they're unreliable, dishonorable and untrustworthy.
You're such an idiot.
Quote: DocWow! I think those previous two posts may be the closest I have ever seen JerryLogan and mkl654321 come to agreeing on anything! Now if we could only get EvenBob to chime in similarly, it might be a sign of the Apocalypse.
Apparently, Doc, you spoke way too soon. You have to remember that JL REFLEXIVELY (as in, without thinking) disagrees with me. Thus, when he saw my post, above, that appeared to share his opinion, he immediately switched horses.
Quote: mkl654321I would caution anyone attempting to take advantage of this promotion is that Terrible's has a "terrible" reputation for reneging on promotions, canceling them without notice, changing the rules in midstream, and declaring certain players "ineligible" out of the blue. They are dishonorable, unreliable, and untrustworthy, to an extent not seen in Vegas casinos, or indeed, any other business that has existed in the last fifty years.
While I have no personal evidence to disagree with you, We have the Wizard and JBs assurance that the promotion was played EVERY DAY for an extended period of time without any hassle. I think I'll go with their ruling on this one.
Quote: cclub79While I have no personal evidence to disagree with you, We have the Wizard and JBs assurance that the promotion was played EVERY DAY for an extended period of time without any hassle. I think I'll go with their ruling on this one.
They could easily have reformed; the dishonesty I was referring to was up to a couple of years ago, when I resolved never to play there again. I've since heard a few horror stories from friends who continued to play there, though. I know they received a TON of negative feedback, so maybe they have decided to be more forthright in their dealings with customers. I applaud any change, and believe the Wiz's and JB's reports, but I would not be at all surprised if they pulled the plug without warning once again.
Quote: mkl654321They could easily have reformed; the dishonesty I was referring to was up to a couple of years ago, when I resolved never to play there again. I've since heard a few horror stories from friends who continued to play there, though. I know they received a TON of negative feedback, so maybe they have decided to be more forthright in their dealings with customers. I applaud any change, and believe the Wiz's and JB's reports, but I would not be at all surprised if they pulled the plug without warning once again.
Translation: I GOT CAUGHT WITH MY PANTS DOWN AGAIN AND I CAN'T BACK UP OR IDENTIFY A SINGLE STUPID ASSERTION THAT I WISH I HADN'T MADE.
Yes, indeed, I do that some time. I knew that I had to act quickly to get my comment posted though, because the "in agreement" status just had to be immensely unstable. I've been watching for it for weeks. It was like trying to take a photo of a balloon in mid-burst without a synch-triggered flash.Quote: mkl654321Apparently, Doc, you spoke way too soon.
On the surface, it originally appears to me to be a profitable and potentially exploitable opportunity. I was ready, willing, and able to make reservations and hop a flight.
But on closer examination, and if my math is “right”, it does not appear to be profitable in the long run. I know my math is not correct for this scenario (written below) but have included my thoughts anyway.
Here is what I originally thought would be the “correct” math, if played on the 0.47% double deck Blackjack table. Table limit is $500.00 maximum bet. For simplicity, I used $1,000 bets, seeking one decision per 24 hour 01 minute time period to qualify if a loss is incurred. After 100 trials, my very rough and most likely inaccurate calculations were:
47 winners @ $1,000 = $47,000.00
53 losers @ $900 = 47,700.00
Net: – $700 over 100 trials @ $1,000 per trial.
I don’t think I am correct, but is may be roughly accurate.
Is this offer, long term, really a loser for the player, assuming perfect play?
Since the maximum bet allowed is $500.00, this bet size should be used to calculate the long term results with the following parameters:
The 100 trials will fall exactly on mathematical expectation. If necessary for computing the results, a larger number of trials could be used. My definition of “trials” in this message is the daily session, whether one hand or many until the daily goal is reached, every 24+ hours to be eligible for the rebate.
I would expect some “daily” trials could involve many individual hands if the results are choppy. Other considerations would include pushes, dealer and player simultaneous naturals, etc.
The player will stop for 24 hours once a $1,000+ winner goal, or $1,000+ stop loss is reached.
Considering splits and doubles, a win or loss could be $2750.00 ($2,000 on second wager with split and double, following a natural 3-2 payoff win on first trial.) It is probably more, as I did not consider potential results on re-splits and doubles. Again, I am only looking for “expectation”.
What are the anticipated results, deviation, and ROR using $500 wagers, and 100 trials? Would the expectation be different for 50 trials? 10 trials? I do realize the ROR will change drastically of fewer trials.
Maybe someone with better math abilities and understanding will come along and provide accurate information on the EV of this scenario. How profitable, or how big a loser is it really?
I just do not know, and would truly like to know.
Thanks for your input.
No.Quote: aluisioMy question can sound innocent, but here it is: is there baccarat at terrible's?
