Discussion II about the Suspension List

Quote: kewlj

Unfortunately I don't think I am able to respond to Missions "beautiful" post without adding to my 97 days of vacation time in the last 5 months. But I will try to make a couple points. lol.

Speaking of no one inparticular, if a player is claiming to win 100's of thousands of dollars, a half million dollars, playing a -EV game, i don't think it is unreasonable to push back and push back HARD on that. I will push back on that whether it be a video poker player, claiming he wins by progressive wagering and "special" (less optimal) plays, or whether it be a a bacarat player, or whatever.

And furthermore if someone where to hypothetically claim to being comped all sorts of highend stuff, inclduing high end suites, for going on half a year, while winning half a million, I am going to push back saying "that is not the way Las Vegas works".

Rules, insults, protections of what you can or can't say isn't going to matter to me.

That is all I am going to say.

Well, the rules of meeting MDawg were the rules of meeting MDawg and were agreed to by MDawg, Wizard and the party shelling out the money (DarkOz) to make it happen. If you don't like the rules, then see how much you can shell out to make a similar meeting happen with rules that you do like.

For my part, if I had been enlisted to verify MDawg's claims and it was my sole objective to attack them from every angle, then I'd have asked to see all of his hotel folios after he blacked out (with a sharpie) any sensitive information. Even on a comped room, there should still be hotel folios that would prove that he was in whatever casino/room(s), for whatever length of time and that the stay was fully comped. Even if other evidence could be gimmicked, there would be no way to gimmick that, especially since MDawg would have no idea that I would have asked to see that until the moment that I did it.

But, I really wouldn't care to discredit MDawg because one person's claims are irrelevant to me. Naturally, I'd have went out there and, "Investigated," if someone was paying me to do it.

You can push back on whatever you want to and argue it with the underlying math. Unfortunately, by your own admission in your own posts, your gambling math isn't as strong as that of some other people, so you might have trouble quantifying a probability of a particular person's results. That being the case, as with others, your idea of, "Pushing back," seems to be directly calling someone a liar or someone's tales lies, which is something that cannot be done here.

If someone said to me, "Mission146, there are no games available to you where you are absolutely guaranteed to profit or breakeven, at will, on every single play you are willing to take," then that statement would be calling me a liar...perhaps worse if they used the word, 'Liar.' Of course, not naming any names, but I wouldn't go PM'ing Wizard directly begging him to ban someone for saying that.

Instead, I could provide video proof that I can choose to do nothing but win or breakeven 100% as long as I can find a play. The opportunities are limited, so I can promise it doesn't add up to anything impressive.

But, the point is, I would prove my claim TRUE. However, that's my choice if I want to do that. I would post a video demonstrating the play...which means I would take a video and send it to someone on Facebook and ask them to figure out how the hell to make it appear on here.

Unfortunately, I think there is too much challenging that goes on with these forums, in general. For that reason, I tend not to speak any claims anymore that I would not want to absolutely prove true, if challenged. Consequently, I talk about a lot less than I otherwise might. That's a shame, too, because my information would be useful to people who are not high-limit Baccarat players.

As far as, "That is not the way Las Vegas works," didn't Teliot analyze a high-limit comped player who was seemingly doing nothing but winning on an unrelated occasion and conclude, "Just lucky?" I tend to think casinos are willing to comp to a pretty extreme point as long as they at least believe you are playing at an expected loss.

I'd rather just take it for granted that people can read things critically for themselves and decide whether or not to believe certain claims. I generally don't call out the claims of an individual person for that reason; I just quietly decide for myself whether or not I believe those claims. You can attack claims with questions and mathematical facts to your heart's content...then it is up to the reader to decide which side seems more credible, on balance.

The only thing calling someone a liar accomplishes is that it proves that you are too frustrated with trying to prove them wrong with reasoned argument to continue.

Quote: darkoz

I think you just broke a few people hearts!

Doubtful. Anyone whose heart would be broken by that post doesn't believe it anyway.

I also strongly agree with Mission's post.

1. If Phil Ivey had gotten on this site and bragged about crushing a table game without disclosing that he was edge carding, should we have denounced him and then nuked him? Of course not.

2. People that claim to be winning constantly are either:
- lucky (there are so many gamblers that it is statistically likely that some are life-long winners)
- using an undisclosed AP play (In which case I'd personally like to hear more, not less)
- have selective memory (there really is such a thing)
- delusional
- lying (for any of several reasons)
- writing fiction (Ring Lardner was a baseball reporter for newspapers who hung around the ball players. Eventually, he started writing fictional stories about baseball and today he is remembered principally for his fictional stories and not for his journalistic reportage about things that really happened. Fifty or a hundred years from now, historians might comb through the WOV forums and does any of us truly know what they will deem as valuable and historically interesting? Will it be the bickering and hectoring posts that so many of you specialize in? Or will it be Mdawg's descriptions of the life-style of a high-stakes baccarat player - irrespective of whether he truly wins all the time or not. I question whether any of us really know what a notional future historian will think is of value.)

In any case, none of the above (being lucky, using an AP play and not disclosing it, having unreliable memory, lying, or writing fiction) is against the forum's rules. And it is not against the forum rules for members to express skepticism and make statistical arguments about the improbability of those claims.

Quote: Mission146

Doubtful. Anyone whose heart would be broken by that post doesn't believe it anyway.

That might be the post of the year.

They'll be writing their own posts in 50 years.

Quote: Mission146

As far as, "That is not the way Las Vegas works," didn't Teliot analyze a high-limit comped player who was seemingly doing nothing but winning on an unrelated occasion and conclude, "Just lucky?" I tend to think casinos are willing to comp to a pretty extreme point as long as they at least believe you are playing at an expected loss.

Yes, Eliot did share his experience of being one of the experts that was called in. I forget the details...was it a number of weekends of play dating back a year? What ever it was it doesn't add up to the length of time we are now talking about almost half a year, without interruption. AND THAT IS ONLY THIS TRIP!

As for the liar and lying comments in the same post, I never called anyone a "liar". Never used that word. I was suspended for using "fiction". lol

Quote: Mission146

Thanks for the compliment, but since it was more than fifty words long, I expect that the two of us and KewlJ will be the only ones to read it and there will be at least five complaints about my verbosity.

I read every word! 😜

Honestly, the math and statistics agree that long term players are expected to be down the house edge. If some players are way, way down, that means some players are indeed lifetime winners. Some more standard deviations away than the others. Its definitely not impossible!

Anytime any of us play any -EV we are just hoping to be on the unexpected side of that EV!

If 1,000,000 players used the martingale trying to win $100/day for a year a few will bust out quickly and a few may never bust out! Thats the cool part about math and statistics!

Quote: kewlj

Yes, Eliot did share his experience of being one of the experts that was called in. I forget the details...was it a number of weekends of play dating back a year? What ever it was it doesn't add up to the length of time we are now talking about almost half a year, without interruption. AND THAT IS ONLY THIS TRIP!

As for the liar and lying comments in the same post, I never called anyone a "liar". Never used that word. I was suspended for using "fiction". lol

I can't agree with the, "LOL," at the end. If someone is proposing that a thing is true, in fact, and someone else describes it as, 'Fiction,' then that's essentially the same thing as calling the first person a liar.

Quote: kewlj

Let me ask you this then? Why was there an agreed restriction placed on you about reporting what you witnessed? I beleive it was so that you wouldn't say what you just did, which really clarifies things for many of us.

You should ask mdawg that. However, it would violate your truce if you did so here, so please ask elsewhere.

Quote: kewlj

Unfortunately I don't think I am able to respond to Missions "beautiful" post without adding to my 97 days of vacation time in the last 5 months. But I will try to make a couple points. lol.

Speaking of no one inparticular, if a player is claiming to win 100's of thousands of dollars, a half million dollars, playing a -EV game, i don't think it is unreasonable to push back and push back HARD on that. I will push back on that whether it be a video poker player, claiming he wins by progressive wagering and "special" (less optimal) plays, or whether it be a a bacarat player, or whatever.

And furthermore if someone where to hypothetically claim to being comped all sorts of highend stuff, inclduing high end suites, for going on half a year, while winning half a million, I am going to push back saying "that is not the way Las Vegas works".

Rules, insults, protections of what you can or can't say isn't going to matter to me.

That is all I am going to say.

I hate to suspend you again so shortly after your return, but this post violates the terms of your truce. It is quite clear who you are talking about. This is your second warning today. There will not be a third.

Quote: Wizard

I hate to suspend you again so shortly after your return, but this post violates the terms of your truce. It is quite clear who you are talking about. This is your second warning today. There will not be a third.

In fairness to KewlJ, though he's not getting suspended for this one anyway, I was the first one to mention MDawg by name. I had actually forgot that KewlJ wasn't supposed to reference him in any posts, or I wouldn't have done it. KewlJ's response is (though indirectly) 100% my fault.

Quote: Wizard

You should ask mdawg that. However, it would violate your truce if you did so here, so please ask elsewhere.

Isn't this a little silly? seriously?

Now speaking of this truce. I would like to formally request this truce be ended. I don't think it is fair. It is the second time this kind of restriction has been placed on me. I should be able to comment the same as any other member on any subject as long as I don't violate other rules like personal insults. I am not asking for special treatment....I am requesting the same treatment as every other member.

Well, I guess my taking the blame for that was pointless.

Quote: Mission146

Well, I guess my taking the blame for that was pointless.

What? I am not allowed to discuss? This is supposed to be the thread to discuss?

Nope, not it. I'm not an Admin. I'm outtie. See everyone tomorrow.

Quote: Mission146

KewlJ's response is (though indirectly) 100% my fault.

No, it is 0% your fault. You're allowed to talk about mdawg and he isn't. That he can't is not your problem.

Quote: kewlj

I would like to formally request this truce be ended.

Fine with me, if mdawg agrees. Otherwise, the truce stands.

Quote: Wizard

No, it is 0% your fault. You're allowed to talk about mdawg and he isn't. .

The truce does NOT say that. it says.

I am not allowed to post in the Mdawg thread, nor comment on it. I see no reference to not being allowed to talk ABOUT anyone.

Quote: Wizard

An agreement has been negotiated between MDawg and Kewlj. Here are the terms, which both parties have agreed to.

1. This thread has been moved to the "Betting Systems" category.
2. Kewlj will stay out of this thread. He may not comment on it in other threads. If Mdawg posts in another thread, Kewlj may address that post only wherever it may be located.

I will be enforcing this agreement. However, I trust both parties to be men of their words and go their separate ways.

Just let it go kewlj.

Voice your frustrations to me in PM if you have to.

I dont wanna see you go over something so trivial.

In the same field stand both a mighty oak tree and a willow tree. The willow tree envies the power and strength that the oak tree possesses. One day a storm, with whipping winds and torrential rain, makes its way through the field. After the storm passes, the willow tree notices that the oak tree has fallen over in the storm. In a state of confusion, she asks the farmer what happened to the oak tree. The farmer tells the willow tree that although the oak was mighty and solid, it was also rigid and inflexible and when the winds were too much for it to resist, the oak tree collapsed under the pressure. The willow thought about herself for a minute. She realized that her ability to survive the storm was due to her flexibility and adaptability as she was able to bend with the wind to weather the storm.

Quote: darkoz

I think you just broke a few people hearts!

Was that the part Mike edited out? I have been saying that since the beginning. Whatever Mike eluded to in his report of a possible advantage, I have no doubt it was somthing so insignificant that it would be a huge stretch of the imagination to actually call it an advantage.

For instance: If I were to play a machine with a HA of 99% and I got back just slightly over 1% in overpriced high-end comped rooms, it would be a stretch to call that an advantage.

Quote: Mission146

Quote: Wizard

I hate to suspend you again so shortly after your return, but this post violates the terms of your truce. It is quite clear who you are talking about. This is your second warning today. There will not be a third.

In fairness to KewlJ, though he's not getting suspended for this one anyway, I was the first one to mention MDawg by name. I had actually forgot that KewlJ wasn't supposed to reference him in any posts, or I wouldn't have done it. KewlJ's response is (though indirectly) 100% my fault.

Everything is always your fault Mission.

Quote: AxelWolf

Whatever Mike eluded to in his report of a possible advantage,

He never alluded to any advantage.
Somebody imagined that he did due to confirmation bias.

Quote: kewlj

There is something to be said for free speech, even for system players making claims that defy gambling math and principals. BUT there HAS to be push back allowed, by members, players and math experts and the emphasis shouldn't be if some small insult was involved. T

THAT results in a protection of the person making these goofy claims, and results in him/her essentially using and manipulating this forum's good name and Mike's good name as gambling math expert to further their agenda....whatever that may be? One person is running around on other forums, calling his claims and play "Wizard verified". If Mike is ok with that, whatever, but I object to that on Mike's behalf.

There is a lot of information to cover in the above quote that I feel should be discussed here. Starting with the term "Wizard verified"
First, I do not think anyone who is making claims of success in whatever field of choice should not be responsible for what is said by any supporters of his/her claims. Now the person or persons who are making those claims of Wizard verified are not lying. They are just using a term that can easily be interpretational. Someone who is trying to be cunning would be hoping that the term Wizard verified carries more weight than the terms of the actual agreement that took place. People who pay attention realize that the Wizard observed and verified the terms of the agreement nothing more.

Now for KewlJ, to make the argument that the person making the "goofy claims" has protection and is manipulating this forum's good name and Mike's good name as a gaming math expert to further their agenda is actually attempting to do what he is accusing someone else of. KewlJ, further stating that he objects to the term Wizard verified on Mike's behalf is the ultimate disingenuous hypocrisy that frankly my head is spinning. I do not say this lightly as there is a long history to go by. Not to mention KewlJ, actually looking out for someone else first and not himself especially the Wizard of all people is just possibly him in the early stages of schizophrenia.

I will gladly take any punishment that is given to me for giving a different perspective on this matter.

Quote: coachbelly

He never alluded to any advantage.
Somebody imagined that he did due to confirmation bias.

Sure he did.

If someome can quote The Wizard's post where he talks about Mdawg's play, I would appreciate it, I have no clue where to find the adventures of MD since being banished to the hidden realm.

Quote: BoSox

Not to mention KewlJ, actually looking out for someone else first and not himself especially the Wizard of all people is just possibly him in the early stages of schizophrenia.

I will gladly take any punishment that is given to me for giving a different perspective on this matter.

I don't know if it matters but I am going to request that BoSox not be suspended for the above nasty remark. I don't know what has gotten into him lately that he is filled with such hate towards me, but if getting this off his chest helps him, I would like to do my part to help him move forward.

Quote: kewlj

I don't know if it matters but I am going to request that BoSox not be suspended for the above nasty remark.

(emphasis mine)

Noted. Pistols at dawn are highly discouraged.

Quote: Dieter

Quote: kewlj

I don't know if it matters but I am going to request that BoSox not be suspended for the above nasty remark.

(emphasis mine)

Noted. Pistols at dawn are highly discouraged.

And just when you were getting to be less WMOATish.


Unfortunately, that's earned you a grade demerit.

Quote: AxelWolf

Quote: Dieter

Quote: kewlj

I don't know if it matters but I am going to request that BoSox not be suspended for the above nasty remark.

(emphasis mine)

Noted. Pistols at dawn are highly discouraged.

And just when you were getting to be less WMOATish.


Unfortunately, that's earned you a grade demerit.

Okay I feel left out of the loop.

What does WMOAT stand for?

I keep seeing it mentioned.

Worst Moderator of All Time. A much coveted status.

Quote: OnceDear

Worst Moderator of All Time. A much coveted status.

Hmph!

I'm going to see if it's worthwhile to have a Wittiest Mountaineer trophy made up for your collection.
A small one.

I understand the rule that the Wizard reminded the membership about this week pertaining to members not being allowed to cut and paste posts from other forums onto this forum. However, when lying is taken place on an extremely very real dirty level the person being spoken about should be able to use those outside quotes in some private way or manner to establish his/her credibility regarding proving his own accusation made. Thank you.

Quote: BoSox

I understand the rule that the Wizard reminded the membership about this week pertaining to members not being allowed to cut and paste posts from other forums onto this forum. However, when lying is taken place on an extremely very real dirty level the person being spoken about should be able to use those outside quotes in some private way or manner to establish his/her credibility regarding proving his own accusation made. Thank you.

The obvious reason, both practically and legally, for not importing quotes from other forums is that very few people have copyrights on their forum names, so a handle on one account could be the same handle's brother, wife, extended family, or arch enemy on another account.

For example, I just rotated through a bunch of sign up procedures (using the handle BoSox) for GamblingForums.com, a fan club for Big Bottom Women, and the DeviantArt Sheep Lovers' Club. I had no problem trying to sign up for GamblingForums, where there's a Bosox but not a BoSox, or the Big Bottom Fan Cub, but somewhat surprisingly the Sheep Lovers' Club already had a BoSox. And no, I'm not making this up.

If I wanted to sabotage somebody using their anonymous handle, what's to stop me from "being them" whenever and wherever I want? And that's why importing quotes from other forums is problematic at best.

It's also why real names with real addresses are the province of grown-ups these days, and grown-ups are in short supply.

Quote: redietz

The obvious reason, both practically and legally, for not importing quotes from other forums is that very few people have copyrights on their forum names, so a handle on one account could be the same handle's brother, wife, extended family, or arch enemy on another account.

For example, I just rotated through a bunch of sign up procedures (using the handle BoSox) for GamblingForums.com, a fan club for Big Bottom Women, and the DeviantArt Sheep Lovers' Club. I had no problem trying to sign up for GamblingForums, where there's a Bosox but not a BoSox, or the Big Bottom Fan Cub, but somewhat surprisingly the Sheep Lovers' Club already had a BoSox. And no, I'm not making this up.

If I wanted to sabotage somebody using their anonymous handle, what's to stop me from "being them" whenever and wherever I want? And that's why importing quotes from other forums is problematic at best.

It's also why real names with real addresses are the province of grown-ups these days, and grown-ups are in short supply.

I have to agree with this.

My sole reason for signing up at a particular gambling forum was because there was accusations I was posting under another handle.

It's problematic to assume anyone with a similar or same handle is the same person.

As for big bottoms and sheep lovers on the web, hmmmm!

Quote: Dieter

Quote: kewlj

I don't know if it matters but I am going to request that BoSox not be suspended for the above nasty remark.

(emphasis mine)

Noted. Pistols at dawn are highly discouraged.

"8:00. I do my killin' after breakfast."-Marty McFly

Quote: OnceDear

Worst Moderator of All Time. A much coveted status.

I win running away. You guys are just playing for second place.

Quote: Mission146

I win running away. You guys are just playing for second place.

OD has had it locked down for a long time. I’m not sure why some of these mods/former mods seem to cover it.

Quote: mcallister3200

OD has had it locked down for a long time. I’m not sure why some of these mods/former mods seem to cover it.

Healthy competition brings out our best performance.
Also, time isn't over yet, so there's a chance.

Quote: OnceDear

Worst Moderator of All Time. A much coveted status.

I have 5 words for you.

Quote: darkoz

Quote: AxelWolf

Quote: Dieter

Quote: kewlj

I don't know if it matters but I am going to request that BoSox not be suspended for the above nasty remark.

(emphasis mine)

Noted. Pistols at dawn are highly discouraged.

And just when you were getting to be less WMOATish.


Unfortunately, that's earned you a grade demerit.

Okay I feel left out of the loop.

What does WMOAT stand for?

I keep seeing it mentioned.

It's a title I originally bestowed on OnceDear.


Don't worry, I can give you the WAPOAT title.

A moderator should use his power moderately!

Quote: Dieter

Healthy competition brings out our best performance.
Also, time isn't over yet, so there's a chance.

m
The hubris. We are talking ALL TIME!!!!

Quote: AxelWolf

I have 5 words for you.

I question your abilities as a counter - that's six.

Quote: Dieter

I question your abilities as a counter - that's six.

One of them was actually a number!

(That is how Axel throws off the casinos keeping track of his counting)

Part of the terms of the darkoz challenge was that I, as the witness, could report only that the terms of the challenge were met and could not specify any details on the play itself. A remark I made yesterday was allegedly in violation of said non-disclosure agreement. While admitting no guilt, I agreed to settle the complaint with the following actions:

1. Wizard retracts the removed sentence.
2. Immediate release of MDawg from WoV jail, which cut 11 days off a 14-day sentence.
3. Wizard to serve a four-day suspension from Aug 26 to 29, for reason of violating confidentiality.
4. Other than this statement, Wizard may not address this issue publicly, other than to refer to this agreement.
5. Further discussion of MDawg's session I witnessed, should anyone wish to discuss it further, should be confined to the Adventures of MDawg thread.

Quote: Wizard

Part of the terms of the darkoz challenge was that I, as the witness, could report only that the terms of the challenge were met and could not specify any details on the play itself. A remark I made yesterday was allegedly in violation of said non-disclosure agreement. While admitting no guilt, I agreed to settle the complaint with the following actions:

1. Wizard retracts the removed sentence.
2. Immediate release of MDawg from WoV jail, which cut 11 days off a 14-day sentence.
3. Wizard to serve a four-day suspension from Aug 26 to 29, for reason of violating confidentiality.
4. Other than this statement, Wizard may not address this issue publicly, other than to refer to this agreement.
5. Further discussion of MDawg's session I witnessed, should anyone wish to discuss it further, should be confined to the Adventures of MDawg thread.

I have heard of AP plays needing to be kept secret but lucky plays?

Quote: Wizard

Part of the terms of the darkoz challenge was that I, as the witness, could report only that the terms of the challenge were met and could not specify any details on the play itself. A remark I made yesterday was allegedly in violation of said non-disclosure agreement. While admitting no guilt, I agreed to settle the complaint with the following actions:

1. Wizard retracts the removed sentence.
2. Immediate release of MDawg from WoV jail, which cut 11 days off a 14-day sentence.
3. Wizard to serve a four-day suspension from Aug 26 to 29, for reason of violating confidentiality.
4. Other than this statement, Wizard may not address this issue publicly, other than to refer to this agreement.
5. Further discussion of MDawg's session I witnessed, should anyone wish to discuss it further, should be confined to the Adventures of MDawg thread.

Well, I object. The person in question was suspended for a violation against me. Now he has used a mistake made by you as leverage to bypass that penalty. How does that make me whole?

And on top of that, any discussion of the matter is supposed to take place in a thread I am restricted from.

Jailbreak!