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123BroRick123
123BroRick123
Joined: Sep 18, 2018
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October 15th, 2018 at 12:43:38 PM permalink
Is this how to post a thread?

What's wrong with this craps strategy?

ONE ROLL ONLY
$10 on 5, $12 on 6, $12 on 8, $7 on Field
Every number but 7 wins $7 Wins 30 times, Loses 6 times. (W7, L41)

TWO ROLLS ONLY
$10 on 5, $12 on 6, $12 on 8, $7 on Field, $100 on either Lay4 or Lay10
Every number but 4 wins $7 Wins 33 times, Loses 3 times. (W7, L93)

THREE ROLLS ONLY
$10 on 5, $12 on 6, $12 on 8, $7 on Field, $146 on either Lay4 or Lay10, $21 on Hard4
Every number but an easy4 wins $7 Wins 34 times, Loses 2 times. (W7, L160)

If you are Betting 5 times this or more, then Buy the 5.

Bro. Rick
odiousgambit
odiousgambit 
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October 15th, 2018 at 3:18:19 PM permalink
what's wrong? you are only listing bets that have negative epectation. It is impossible, then, for this to be worth considering for any other reason than whether you find it fun to play.

you have to weigh outcomes with probability. Listing outcomes without weighing them is silly math that no one here will waste their time with.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
GWAE
GWAE
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October 15th, 2018 at 3:26:25 PM permalink
So on your first one you are putting out $41. You will win $7 for 30 rolls which is $210. You will lose 41 6 times which is $246. So after 36 rolls you are down $36

Second one you win 231 and lose 279

3rd one you win 238 and lose 320

Good luck
Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed. I AM NOT PART OF GWAE RADIO SHOW
123BroRick123
123BroRick123
Joined: Sep 18, 2018
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October 15th, 2018 at 9:39:42 PM permalink
On the first one I said ONE ROLL ONLY, not 36 rolls.
On the second one I said TWO ROLLS only, not 36 rolls
On the third one I said THREE ROLLS ONLY, not 36 rolls.

On the first one you have to redo your math with the expectation of ONE ROLL ONLY with a 7 coming up (6 times) versus the other 30 numbers. ONE ROLL ONLY

On the second one you have to redo your math with the expectation of TWO ROLLS ONLY with a 4 coming up (3 times) versus the other 33 numbers, two times. TWO ROLLS ONLY

On the third one you have to redo your math with the expectation of THREE ROLLS ONLY with an Easy4 coming up (2 times) versus the other 34 numbers, three times. THREE ROLLS ONLY

Obviously ONE ROLL ONLY is best for all 3 variations:
1st one, ONE ROLL ONLY, wins 83.3 per cent
2nd one, ONE ROLL ONLY, wins 91.6 per cent
3rd one, ONE ROLL ONLY, wins 94 per cent!

So, please tell me what you think the odds on if I put up 100x the bets on the 3rd One and play ONE ROLL ONLY.

Bro. Rick
GWAE
GWAE
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October 15th, 2018 at 11:17:01 PM permalink
If doesnt matter if you do 1 roll or 3 million rolls. That is the average over time. You may won 83 percent but what about that 17 percent. That 17 percent is going to kill you.

Anyways, who the hell wants to play craps for 1 roll?
Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed. I AM NOT PART OF GWAE RADIO SHOW
7craps
7craps
Joined: Jan 23, 2010
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October 16th, 2018 at 10:33:11 AM permalink
Quote: 123BroRick123

What's wrong with this craps strategy?

if you like to play this way, nothing is wrong with that strategy. The dice will NEVER roll out a perfect distribution for every 36 rolls so
why care about 1 roll?

the only reason I can see as you mix lots of different type bets together
is what is the average result in real money with this system and can it be compared to other systems?

I get, without any math shown, an AVERAGE LOSS PER ROLL of about 42 cents.(Field bet needs to have 2 or 12 pay 3 to 1 or it is higher)

really do not like that
as one can not lose 42 cents on any one roll
the weasel word here is 'average'

as even YOU do not know what that dice will roll on the very next roll
specifically that is
Quote: 123BroRick123

ONE ROLL ONLY
$10 on 5, $12 on 6, $12 on 8, $7 on Field
Every number but 7 wins $7 Wins 30 times, Loses 6 times. (W7, L41)

but you plan on taking DOWN every bet until when?

what is the trigger for making the 2nd roll. the 2nd roll does not have to be right after the first roll
unless you think it does make a difference.
then play for fun
or another one roll and down

what a great way to wear out your Dealers too

enjoy
Last edited by: 7craps on Oct 16, 2018
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
discflicker
discflicker
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October 16th, 2018 at 12:41:44 PM permalink
Hello Bro Rick, are you playing on a table that pays 3x for 12 (or the 2) in the Field bet?
The difference between zero and the smallest possible number? It doesn't matter; once you cross that edge, it might as well be the difference between zero and 1. The difference between infinity and reality? They are mutually exclusive.
discflicker
discflicker
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October 16th, 2018 at 3:33:35 PM permalink
I went ahead and programmed the one-roll strategy into NailsULA just for kicks...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QLoqkgSuOyg&list=PL5sNoUTU2sjyC6lwqPpFApQuDEJZDgRHV
(about 12 minute playlist)

(late edit) After 800 rolls, your balance is $9,449, not too bad, I must say! But after 1000 rolls, it went down under $9,000. During this test, the longest string of consecutive rolls without a 7 was 26.

QUESTION:
If you take your bets down, do you then have to pay the VIG on your buy bets?? If so, nix that idea, and just stick with strategy #1. In Tunica, Miss., they allow buy bets and don't charge the VIG until you win the bet, which is AWESOME, but I think even they will charge you the VIG if you take the bet down.

(second later edit)...

I went and ran side-by-side sims varying the amount of the field bets... turns out, the field bet hedge does not help... the more you bet in the field, the more you lose, even when you place the 5, 6, and 8 points with proper amounts of $10, $12, and $12 respectively.
Last edited by: discflicker on Oct 16, 2018
The difference between zero and the smallest possible number? It doesn't matter; once you cross that edge, it might as well be the difference between zero and 1. The difference between infinity and reality? They are mutually exclusive.
DeMango
DeMango
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October 16th, 2018 at 5:07:27 PM permalink
The above not making any sense. How do you make 9K off of a losing bet???
When a rock is thrown into a pack of dogs, the one that yells the loudest is the one who got hit.
discflicker
discflicker
Joined: Jan 1, 2011
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October 16th, 2018 at 5:37:23 PM permalink
Quote: DeMango

The above not making any sense. How do you make 9K off of a losing bet???


In the video playlist, he starts off with $10,000.
The difference between zero and the smallest possible number? It doesn't matter; once you cross that edge, it might as well be the difference between zero and 1. The difference between infinity and reality? They are mutually exclusive.

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