Going on tilt and losing / regaining heart (seeking a good read)
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceSure, Bob. I keep forgetting that you know everything about everything.
Now you're catching on. Keep that attitude
and things will be fine. Remember:
There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio,
Than are dreamt of in your philosophy.
- Hamlet (1.5.167-8), Hamlet to Horatio
Quote: BuzzardJohn Patrick is the Wizard's mentor.
This line is so outrageously funny that I'm sure the Wizard got a big laugh out of it too.
Quote: mickeycrimmThis line is so outrageously funny that I'm sure the Wizard got a big laugh out of it too.
So you're saying it's not true? (uh oh, did I go too far?)
You appear well informed, considering you have no idea what it is I'm doing.Quote: AxiomOfChoiceHowever, countless studies have shown that baccarat is NOT one of those games. Effect of removal of cards is minimal; having an edge is extremely rare. There is a reason that they give you a pen and paper at the baccarat table but not at the blackjack table.
Ridiculous? You make too many assumptions. Firstly you can not expect to come out ahead playing Baccarat flat betting or betting positive most of the time. A negative progression is required, there is no way around it, however my progression is unique as I designed it my myself, it is more of a concept than any after a loss you bet this much then this much. I'm well versed with most probably with all betting progressions that have been invented over the last century, they are in the main useless, however the Star & Garcia system's are pretty neat.Quote:The OP is using some ridiculous betting system with some sort of a negative progression, that allows him to book winning sessions most of the time. Whenever he is ahead by his goal, he stops.
Such as 27 winning sessions on the bounce playing a negative expectation game were the longer you play the more likely you are expected to lose. I quit most days due to fatigue, I could actually rake more money if I stayed longer, when is this quoted HE supposes to actually kick in, what is the long term for somebody playing 7 days per week, 50~60 shoes on average?Quote:So, he wins most sessions. He calls this "grinding out money". Unfortunately, these betting systems don't work -- you have occasional large losses which wipe out all your wins and then some. When he has one of these large losses he attributes it to "tilt" and posts to some forum about "how to avoid tilt".
I don't lose due to my bet selection or money management, with the former that is the dynamics of the game, every conceivable bet selection anybody could invent resolves to a 50-50 state, there is no escape from this period, I known this and accept it, there is no edge to be found for any given hand, so you deal with what you are dealt. Consequently I don't bet every hand, IMO it is a damn sight easier to win a bet within a series of hands than win every bet within the same given series of hand, even though everything resolves equally. What is the probability of guessing 10 out of 10 decisions correctly, compare to trying to guess one correctly in the same number of outcomes? Sure there are times you won't guess any out of 10, then it comes down to how you handle those 10 guesses wrong.
My losing sessions are in the main a result of going on tilt, not the bet selection isn't working (an oxymoron because everything is equal and independent regardless ), shit happens sometimes & the casino beat my odds in a short cluster, which is what happened yesterday, however over the long term, something like 15 shoes played, I turned a rebuyin into a 400% profit out of necessity. Tilt is a result of mental fatigue, playing too long, frustrating session which ends up with ones normal game plan and composure going out the window. Unfortunately for people like yourself you have a blinkered view of the game, that's not really my issue, nor am I arsed, you stick to your negativity, I'll solider on to continue pulling 20k per month from the Baccarat tables, so long as I can avoid TILT in those difficult sessions, which I reminded myself to not do so & stick with it during the wee hours of last night. Don't ever ever under estimate composure, speak to the majority of players in any casino, they mostly tell you the same thing, I lost control. If you are prone to not keeping your head during difficult times you will get undressed. It is a rare event for me to go on tilt, it sometimes happens, hence this thread.
Have yourself a good day.
Quote: EvenBobSo you're saying it's not true? (uh oh, did I go too far?)
Watch this 1 minute video and make your own judgement, mickey !
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sMRlBIScEUg
Quote: egaliteFirstly you can not expect to come out ahead playing Baccarat flat betting or betting positive most of the time.
That part is true.
Quote:A negative progression is required
Yeah, that doesn't help. No betting system can overcome a negative expectation game. This is a simple mathematical theorem; well known and easily proven. I'm pretty sure that I learned enough math in high school to prove this.
Quote:however my progression is unique as I designed it my myself
Oh! You designed it yourself! Well then the laws of mathematics don't apply. See, the laws of mathematics only apply to all the other betting systems that all the other people invented.
My mistake.
Quote:My losing sessions are in the main a result of going on tilt
See, this is your mistake. Your large losing sessions are not the result of going on tilt; they are the result of simple mathematics. This is how all negative progressions work. You win most of the time. Then you have a large losing session and lose it all back, and then some. If it were not for those large losing sessions, then all negative progressions would work and the casinos would all have been bankrupt long ago.
I don't deny that you win most of the time. With a negative progression and a large difference between min and max bets (which baccarat generally provides) you can win A LOT of your sessions. But winning most sessions does not make you a winning player. Because, once in a while, you have that MONSTER losing session and lose it all back, and then some.
It's not tilt. It's simple mathematics.
Anyway, if you don't want to believe that, that's fine. Keep fighting against the laws of mathematics. You'll go broke just like all the other betting progression players before you, and all the ones after you.
Quote: egaliteDon't ever ever under estimate composure, .
Staying calm under pressure is the secret to
any gambling career. Without it you lose your
concentration and your ability to make the
right decisions.
"A man has got to know his limitations."
Dirty Harry Callahan
Quote: BuzzardWatch this 1 minute video and make your own judgement, mickey !
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sMRlBIScEUg
OMG this is hilarious
I mean, seriously, I learned about negative progressions and why they are bullshit in GRADE SCHOOL.
I do not understand how there are adults who believe in them so fervently.
You didn't learn about my concept because it is unique. After I did an evaluation of issues that you always run into with those you find littering the internet. It is still a negative progression, minus the bullshit stipulations of "this is what you bet next".Quote: sodawaterI can't believe there are 16 pages of replies for the most common tripe in gambling: the negative progression bettor believing he has a way to beat the game.
I mean, seriously, I learned about negative progressions and why they are bullshit in GRADE SCHOOL.
I do not understand how there are adults who believe in them so fervently.
I posted in another thread, that I have never lost playing "casino war", believe or not (not that I care), record stand via the use of a negative progression. This avro I skipped the $25 tables and went straight to the VIP club level 7, picking up another $5k inside 6.5 shoes (believe that or not, ditto I care not). Switching between two very simple mechanical betting systems that when tested resolve to a 50-50 state, each brilliant pattern capturing techniques (i.e present a narrow pattern window to which the player loses a series, we're talking percentages here). Base bet $100, I took 52 units and over 100% of my buyin, which puts me up a tad over $11k in the last 4 session, via the use of a scornful negative progression applied to a negative expectation game, which has been constructed not to take you to the cleaners if you lose many hands in a row against a game of random outcomes, in which case you use common sense, back-off and go into a mini-recoup mode. I'm still anxiously waiting for the 1.06% / 1.24% to eventually kick in, along with another casino in Oz.
Baccarat is a wonderful game, I earn 'my crust' from playing it, once you rid yourself of the blinkered view, deal with what you do and don't know, such as being able to predict the next outcome and know how to approach the game.
Quote: sodawaterI can't believe there are 16 pages of replies for the most common tripe in gambling: the negative progression bettor believing he has a way to beat the game.
I mean, seriously, I learned about negative progressions and why they are bullshit in GRADE SCHOOL.
I do not understand how there are adults who believe in them so fervently.
Because the money you win is so tempting.
Quote: egaliteYou didn't learn about my concept because it is unique
Hmmm, just some dude making wild claims, getting people going, then laughing his ass off.
Me, on the other hand, still killing them.
hint #4
Quit trying to say I don't use any math. Take a gander at this!
Is he he naked?Quote: IbeatyouracesVisions of rob singer dance in my head.
Typical negative progression delusion. THIS time it will be different! THIS time I won't have the big loss where I lose everything and then some!
Quote: AxiomOfChoice
Typical negative progression delusion. THIS time it will be different! THIS time I won't have the big loss where I lose everything and then some!
This is a great thread, because you talk about
eagalite like you really understand what he's
doing, and you don't have a clue. You just think
you do and are huffing and puffing with authority.
There's no curiosity, no real interest,
just your limited experience to guide you. I wouldn't
have it any other way, it's delightful.
Quote: EvenBobThis is a great thread, because you talk about
eagalite like you really understand what he's
doing, and you don't have a clue. You just think
you do and are huffing and puffing with authority.
There's no curiosity, no real interest,
just your limited experience to guide you. I wouldn't
have it any other way, it's delightful.
I understand exactly what he is doing. He said he is playing a negative progression betting system.
In fact, I knew that he was playing a negative progression system before he admitted it. It was obvious from his results. Usually have winning sessions, but sometimes blow off a bundle which loses all your winnings and then some? That has to be a negative betting progression. That's just how they work. The math is not complicated. If you have any friends who ever passed a high school math class, ask one of them to explain it to you.
Quote: EvenBobThis is a great thread, because you talk about
eagalite like you really understand what he's
doing, and you don't have a clue. You just think
you do and are huffing and puffing with authority.
There's no curiosity, no real interest,
just your limited experience to guide you. I wouldn't
have it any other way, it's delightful.
Evenbob, you might think that your
intentionally obtuse and ambiguous
verbiage is cunning and cute. In
reality though, you just come
off as a pathetic troll, trying
to get a rise out of people
by spouting off voodoo
nonsense, then trying
to spin it as AP
speak. You use
many words
to convey
nothing.
Quote: sabreEvenbob, you might think that your
intentionally obtuse and ambiguous
verbiage is cunning and cute. In
reality though, you just come
off as a pathetic troll, trying
to get a rise out of people
by spouting off voodoo
nonsense, then trying
to spin it as AP
speak. You use
many words
to convey
nothing.
P
er
son
ally I
find it
amusing
Quote: michael99000OP has found a way to beat a game that's been around for a little over 500 years (baccarat invented in 1490). Countless experts, statisticians, math whiz's have taken there shot for half a millennium, yet somehow egalite has finally figured out a way. Now it's just a matter of cleaning the casinos out one by one.
That shows what "street smarts" can do!
Quote: michael99000OP has found a way to beat a game that's been around for a little over 500 years (baccarat invented in 1490). Countless experts, statisticians, math whiz's have taken there shot for half a millennium, yet somehow egalite has finally figured out a way. Now it's just a matter of cleaning the casinos out one by one.
Math is idiotic, didn't you know? How do you hope to win if you don't listen to your gut?
Quote: michael99000OP has found a way to beat a game that's been around for a little over 500 years
He doesn't beat the game, he just wins at
it. He doesn't have the edge, yet he wins
more than he loses. I know that hurts your
head. It's all about knowing when to bet
and when not to bet. This thread makes me
miss GG, I forgot how entertaining the
know-it-all's can be.
Quote: EvenBobHe doesn't beat the game, he just wins at
it. He doesn't have the edge, yet he wins
more than he loses. I know that hurts your
head. It's all about knowing when to bet
and when not to bet. This thread makes me
miss GG, I forgot how entertaining the
know-it-all's can be.
This would
be way less
amusing if
I didn't think
that Bob was
seriou
s.
Quote: EvenBobHe doesn't beat the game, he just wins at
it. He doesn't have the edge, yet he wins
more than he loses. I know that hurts your
head. It's all about knowing when to bet
and when not to bet. This thread makes me
miss GG, I forgot how entertaining the
know-it-all's can be.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YIwDogUsg8s
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceThis would be way less amusing if
I didn't think that Bob was serious.
I'm absolutely serious. You can beat a game
without having the edge. Can you do it forever?
No. But you can for sure do it for a lifetime,
or decades. It all depends on how good you
are.
Quote: EvenBobI'm absolutely serious. You can beat a game
without having the edge. Can you do it forever?
No. But you can for sure do it for a lifetime,
or decades. It all depends on how good you
are.
lol
Quote: strictlyAPI think bob got exposed in this thead
Nobody wants to see that
Beating the casino doesn't necessarily mean playing at an advantage, just like you wouldn't say "I beat the casino" after a particularly advantageous blackjack shoe that you lost twenty bets on. Obviously the OP is a semi-troll, knowingly saying things that will agitate people on this forum, but that doesn't mean his experiences are untrue. Even if they are, somewhere in the realm of results lies a person like him.
Quote: tongniYou can bring down the house edge in most of these games to razor thin margins. Depending on how you structure your play, it can basically be 0%. I don't see why it's unreasonable to think someone working against a small house edge can go on a long sustained run...Having a disadvantage is no guarantee of losing... The "long run" can be a very long time, even on a low variance game like baccarat. Just depends on how you structure your play and wagers.
.
The voice of reason, somebody who actually
knows something. Any game can be exploited
if you put enough time into it. You'll never
have the mathematical edge, but you sure
can bob and weave around it to win sometimes.
Why would somebody who's put years into
learning this share it with strangers on a forum.
There's nothing in it for him.
Quote: IbeatyouracesI wouldn't want it. It's a losing system
It's not a system. You wouldn't be able to do
it, it's not something you learn in a weekend
class.
Quote: EvenBobIt's not a system. You wouldn't be able to do
it, it's not something you learn in a weekend
class.
Yes you have to understand that only Bob and Egalite know how to do it. They are "special".
I would never make the claim, I've beaten the game, nor have an edge. I know the game I play, I know it well, therefore can state the game is unbeatable, this doesn't exclude the fact that you can consistently take money from it.Quote: michael99000OP has found a way to beat a game that's been around for a little over 500 years (baccarat invented in 1490). Countless experts, statisticians, math whiz's have taken there shot for half a millennium, yet somehow egalite has finally figured out a way. Now it's just a matter of cleaning the casinos out one by one.
Mathematicians, statisticians don't necessarily make good gamblers, zero table experience and looking at the game from a naked purist view. No doubt they probably looked for some edge in the game. I could have told them there isn't any to be found as far as I'm aware. I accept what I know to be true, accept and deal with it, plus there is a ton of emotional BS that you have to handle.
Had a good shoe? Now you need to beware of complacency kicking in, the next shoe could be awful, how do you mentally react to being ahead and now having to re-buyin? How is the casino reacting to your style of play, do they send in speedy Gonzalez or make you feel your in a gold fish bowl to unsettle you.
Baccarat is not about predicting, or thinking which side is going to win next, rather it is a money management game, it hinges on how you manage your cash against a coin flip. Yes you can encounter betting many wrong sides in succession, it is also comes down to how you handle / react to that possibility, what you going to do after that happens.
While this is not how I play (will explain why), here is something similar. Imagine what can happen in a Baccarat shoe, in terms of streak lengths, you could have; singles "X" , doubles "XX" , three streaks "XXX" four streaks "XXXX", five streaks "XXXXX" and beyond "XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX". You also have a mixture of the above, a three streak followed by a single, followed by a four streak, followed by a few repeating doubles, basically it can be chaotic, get the picture?
Now if I were to say to you, it doesn't matter one iota what the shoe produces in terms of streak lengths or combinations thereof, I could give you a bet selection that will return a win in any given scenario of chaotic randomness, which the exception of 16% occurrence of a 6 streak as an example. This means for any given streak of six, you will grab a win 84% of the time. Yes six streak can be frequent, however you will grab a win against 84% of them, streaks of 7 or more are not an issue.
Or take it further and make your nemesis pattern 7 streaks, these should occur less frequently than streaks of 6, but hey the game is random and anything can happen right? So now our nemesis pattern is only 14% of seven streaks that we have to avoid. 86% of the time we will snare a win against a streak of 7 and everything else in-between or beyond. You could play many shoes and not see a single 7 streak, on the other hand you could play a shoe which produces many, however only 14% of those will give us grief.
For a game of un-predictable random events, to be able to sit at a table with the foresight, I don't care in the slightest what the shoe produces. I will beat anything and everything with the exception of 14% occurrences of streaks of 7. Christ I would be on that game any day of the week and take my chance, because the 87.5% of Baccarat decisions (the bulk) are streak lengths of 3 or less, but you can never know in advance what will happen!!!
Unfortunately I do not play this way, simply because it is too difficult to design any form of staking plan to fit either above "very narrow losing windows" scenarios, you are now dealing with a different animal than say simply betting the opposite of the prior decision and therefore making each and every occurrence streaks of 6 or 7 as your nemesis. A Grand Martingale (to compensate of the B tax) would handle it, but that is not for me, I like to cater for 'Murphy's Law'. I would be surprised if those non-playing mathematicians & statisticians viewed the game from the eyes of a seasoned pro.
In fact I know a few at the top of their field, civil engineers, math lecturers, who have looked at this game, inside and out and come up blank. I keep telling them, it boils down to the amount you bet, stop trying to figure out which side is going to win next, this is what you need to focus on, any forever increasing progression will one day take your shirt, keep thinking outside the box fella's.
I'm doing it, how about you? <wink>.Quote: strictlyAPLol. Just literally lol
That's why I used to run my own web site "Professional Baccarat", a few ex-members are on WoV.Quote: AcesAndEightsI would like to re-state my opinion that egalite is a troll. He writes way too well for someone who would actually buy in to that crap.
Troll or not, I do actually play, my success at the mo' is unprecedented, I do detect a degree of envy here <wink>.
Quote: AcesAndEightsI would like to re-state my opinion that egalite is a troll. He writes way too well for someone who would actually buy in to that crap.
Maybe. But possibly not. There are lots of otherwise intelligent people who just don't have a clue about mathematics. If you're terrible at math (and many well-written people are), I can see how you can be suckered into the negative progression betting nonsense. After all, you win almost all the time! It would not be hard to put together a system where you have a pretty good chance of playing every day for a couple of months and winning every day! Someone who gambles less frequently could go YEARS taking in small wins until the inevitable happens.
You need not be stupid to fall into this trap.
Quote: IbeatyouracesI'll believe this nonsense works when PGDan comes to this thread and starts complaining.
lol
very apt you said that, because somebody be-friended me at one place (a clueless constant loser, who laughed at the thought of there existing a professional Baccarat player). He with my permission did this for two weeks. He not only recouped everything he lost to this particular casino, but now has more money of theirs than they have of his, he made a minimum a grand per day, some days over 2K. This for somebody who has to work for two weeks for make the same amount was rapped. He can't wait for me to return to my base location. Some do mirror my bets at the tables (that happened last night and the guy won 2 x $100 bets, thanked me, shock my hand then left, a daily regular who has observed me for some time). they think I know which side is going to win? I haven't a clue which side is going to win, but it feels good all around when I do, I don't want to shattered their illusion by telling them is it the amount you bet is the key in this game.Quote: IbeatyouracesIt "IS" a system and all I'd have to do would be to mirror his bets. I'm just not that stupid to do so though.
While you can get lucky for any given hand (winning 9-8 or 1-Baccara on the player side), it requires more than luck to win consistently. I am well aware of the HE & that it is a negative expectation game (the longer one plays, the more likely you will lose, crap), however probability for a given series of bets is paramount.
