Going on tilt and losing / regaining heart (seeking a good read)
January 7th, 2014 at 4:31:40 PM
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Quote: egaliteNot with me playing there. They aren't particularly thrilled when I rook up down-under,
They can't kick you out for winning in AU? What
can they kick you out for.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
January 7th, 2014 at 4:31:42 PM
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Why does this book come to mind...must be the section on money management
http://books.google.com/books?id=N7yf5QEKHXsC&pg=PP7&lpg/&source=bl&ots=o2w4ZpDhzV&sig=c2ytpXc0FNy8UyRCdp5hsP4n9G0&hl=en&sa=X&ei=iJnMUr_bPMearQGE4oHABA&ved=0CEoQ6AEwAg#v=onepage&q&f=false
http://books.google.com/books?id=N7yf5QEKHXsC&pg=PP7&lpg/&source=bl&ots=o2w4ZpDhzV&sig=c2ytpXc0FNy8UyRCdp5hsP4n9G0&hl=en&sa=X&ei=iJnMUr_bPMearQGE4oHABA&ved=0CEoQ6AEwAg#v=onepage&q&f=false
Part of it went on gambling, and part of it went on women. The rest I spent foolishly.
-George Raft
January 7th, 2014 at 4:31:47 PM
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Quote: egaliteNot with me playing there. They aren't particularly thrilled when I rook up down-under, because they know I'm not another run of the mill table chump, I might lose the odd time, but I'll take a hell of a lot of money from you first, which you won't get back. Anyway dream on.
RFB for you, my friend
January 7th, 2014 at 4:33:31 PM
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Quote: TranscendWhy does this book come to mind...must be the section on money management
http://books.google.com/books?id=N7yf5QEKHXsC&pg=PP7&lpg=PP7&dq=j/o/h/n/baccarat1/&source=bl&ots=o2w4ZpDhzV&sig=c2ytpXc0FNy8UyRCdp5hsP4n9G0&hl=en&sa=X&ei=iJnMUr_bPMearQGE4oHABA&ved=0CEoQ6AEwAg#v=onepage&q&f=false
Is John Patrick your hero?
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
January 7th, 2014 at 4:35:57 PM
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Quote: EvenBobIs John Patrick your hero?
I'm still waiting for a reply to my other post that you so easily grazed over. I have no idea who John Patrick is, that is what a google search turned up with a few terms.
Part of it went on gambling, and part of it went on women. The rest I spent foolishly.
-George Raft
January 7th, 2014 at 4:39:47 PM
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Quote: TranscendI have no idea who John Patrick is,
Best line of the day! I should make it my sig
for awhile.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
January 7th, 2014 at 4:44:49 PM
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Quote: EvenBobBest line of the day! I should make it my sig
for awhile.
Be my guest because I honestly have no idea who he is, I am very new to the AP gambling thing...hence why I am here and trying to learn.
What I don't understand is why your post contain nothing but personal attacks and nothing of sustinence? I have asked you very simple questions that you seemingly ignore and decide instead to comment on something with no bearing. Every time you do, that thread you pushed so hard for me to read keeps coming to mind and I can't help but think you are the epitome of the people you say not to wise up.
Part of it went on gambling, and part of it went on women. The rest I spent foolishly.
-George Raft
January 7th, 2014 at 4:50:38 PM
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deleted
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
January 7th, 2014 at 4:52:18 PM
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Quote: TranscendBe my guest because I honestly have no idea who he is, I am very new to the AP gambling thing...hence why I am here and trying to learn.
What I don't understand is why your post contain nothing but personal attacks .
Please show where I attacked somebody. Thanks.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
January 7th, 2014 at 4:53:27 PM
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No pal, I've no idea what is coming next, this is impossible, so I don't base my game plan around it, every hand is a random non-correlated outcome, didn't you know that, I certainly do. I also accept I can predict jack shit, so I don't base my game around that either. You deal with what you know (or don't as the case maybe) and move on. I've been playing this game for a long time, there has been lots of lots of trials and tribulations to reach this point, no doubt I view the game very differently that most on this board. The negativity astounds me, all you people think about is the HE, I doubt many of you have even played this game to any degree, other than try and guess what is coming next, which is stupid.Quote: strictlyAPI'm just dumbfounded - so basically your friend is the smartest man on the planet. he knows what is coming out and when to sit out before it happens- basically you are saying that he can predict the cards and has seen patterns- there is absolutely zero logic here or anywhere in this thread from bob or his internet buddy- I'm about to start a thread voting on the logic here
January 7th, 2014 at 4:59:51 PM
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Quote: egaliteother than try and guess what is coming next, which is stupid.
No more stupid than thinking that money management can overcome a negative expectation game.
Now, if you are getting loss rebates or something, then, fine, those can be abusable if the person who set up your deal isn't too bright. And I suppose you might call stopping at the optimal time to maximize the value of your loss rebate "money management". I would probably use a different phrase.
January 7th, 2014 at 5:03:21 PM
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Dress code, being drunk or abusive, fool mouthed, playing longer than 24 hours. If you start winning more than 10k per day, they will make you feel uncomfortable by posting security behind you, who will talk about you loudly, pit crew & staff try and unsettle you, deal extremely fast, then you have to be thick skinned to handle it. Or use reverse physiology by complementing your play to instill a false sense of security, been there experienced it all.Quote: EvenBobThey can't kick you out for winning in AU? What
can they kick you out for.
My motto generally is, think how the casino want or expect you to react and do the total opposite. I.E forever keep increasing your bets after you lose a few hands cos you can't predict jack or read patterns, which what people here think is required to win.
January 7th, 2014 at 5:05:56 PM
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Quote: EvenBobPlease show where I attacked somebody. Thanks.
So you are claiming ignorance to the fact that you directing to your previous post about not wising up chumps...twice no less...is not an attack towards a person saying they are a chump? Rather than simply answer a question you chose to ignore it completely and instead act like you are wasting your time with a "chump." You debate like a politician you say a whole lot of nothing about more nothing with the occasional chide thrown in at the opposition. You lack the finer points of forming an argument when you have no case. I am not saying Egalite does not know what he is doing or that it is not working, I haven't seen it and all he has done is allude to it...for all I know it could work. But your posts do nothing but derail from the thread and honestly hold nothing worth reading. You post vague musings and when someone points out how what you say could be taken a different way you vehemently ignore it and go off on another tangent than recognize you may have worded something poorly , not even that when given the chance to clarify your standpoint you ignore the opportunity.
Part of it went on gambling, and part of it went on women. The rest I spent foolishly.
-George Raft
January 7th, 2014 at 5:17:48 PM
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Quote: TranscendSo you are claiming ignorance to the fact that you directing to your previous post about not wising up chumps...twice no less...is not an attack
Directing someone to a thread is not an attack
by any stretch of the imagination.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
January 7th, 2014 at 5:21:02 PM
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At least your open minded about it, which is a good start.Quote: TranscendI am not saying Egalite does not know what he is doing or that it is not working, I haven't seen it and all he has done is allude to it...for all I know it could work.
January 7th, 2014 at 5:22:40 PM
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Quote: EvenBobDirecting someone to a thread is not an attack
by any stretch of the imagination.
Again ignoring the bulk of a post and only focusing on one tiny point that of which you are wrong because yes I could direct you to a thread as well and it would not be seen as an attack...it all depends on the topic of the thread if I directed you to a post named "Why I think you are ignorant" would you not take it as me calling you that indirectly? Just because you do not wish to acknowledge the truth does not mean it is not there.
Part of it went on gambling, and part of it went on women. The rest I spent foolishly.
-George Raft
January 7th, 2014 at 5:30:14 PM
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Quote: egaliteAt least your open minded about it, which is a good start.
Someone always knows something you don't. I am always open to learn something new, I may not take it on faith but I will take the time to learn whatever it is and see it in action and make my own judgments on it and decide whether I believe it or not.
Part of it went on gambling, and part of it went on women. The rest I spent foolishly.
-George Raft
January 7th, 2014 at 5:39:53 PM
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Quote: TranscendAgain ignoring the bulk of a post.
Because the bulk of it was irrelevant. You said
I attacked you and I obviously didn't.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
January 7th, 2014 at 5:44:06 PM
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John Patrick is the Wizard's mentor.
Shed not for her
the bitter tear
Nor give the heart
to vain regret
Tis but the casket
that lies here,
The gem that filled it
Sparkles yet
January 7th, 2014 at 5:47:27 PM
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Quote: EvenBobBecause the bulk of it was irrelevant. You said
I attacked you and I obviously didn't.
Ignorance is bliss. To put it in your own words... I'm through "trying to wise up a chump."
Part of it went on gambling, and part of it went on women. The rest I spent foolishly.
-George Raft
January 7th, 2014 at 6:00:54 PM
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I can' post picture if 750k cash and chips and have a friend who routinely posts picture if 10 million in chips not sure what those pictures prove
The bet will not be paid- not now not ever
January 7th, 2014 at 6:13:36 PM
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Quote: strictlyAPI can' post picture if 750k cash and chips and have a friend who routinely posts picture if 10 million in chips not sure what those pictures prove
Let me give you a hint: He doesn't care if
you believe it or not. What are you to him.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
January 7th, 2014 at 10:52:29 PM
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I would give methought a if you and most if what you post in here but I'll keep it friendly. But my honest opinion is that you don't know him as some other people implied and are vouching for him for what reason I have no ifea
The bet will not be paid- not now not ever
January 8th, 2014 at 12:22:45 AM
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Quote: strictlyAPI would give methought a if you and most if what you post in here but I'll keep it friendly. But my honest opinion is that you don't know him
These conversations are so odd. I'm in my 60's
and some stranger is telling me who I know and
don't know. You must be joking or drunk.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
January 8th, 2014 at 1:14:59 AM
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If you are going to take the time to post up some pics, it would be nice if you took the effort to hand write a note with the date,time and a message to WOV member's. We have no idea where, when or how the photos were obtained. Even then... this dose not prove you make money playing.Quote: egalite
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
January 8th, 2014 at 1:26:47 AM
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What if he were to take a picture with a few hundred thousand in chips, maybe half million, at a Baccarat table, except he's the one standing behind it wearing a cumberbund?
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
January 8th, 2014 at 12:14:36 PM
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So true.Quote: EvenBobLet me give you a hint: He doesn't care if
you believe it or not. What are you to him.
The UK pics, were taken some time ago, yeah sure I know people who have thousands of pounds of casino chips lying around in their home, I've said I'm currently at Jupiters, the chips are from Jupiters, what more do you want? Wait a second, I don't really care.Quote: AxelWolfIf you are going to take the time to post up some pics, it would be nice if you took the effort to hand write a note with the date,time and a message to WOV member's. We have no idea where, when or how the photos were obtained. Even then... this dose not prove you make money playing.
Just to set the record straight, there is no system which somebody can play and think, hey I'm gonna make all the money I want today, it will be as easy as convincing the math-heads I'm legit playing some negative expectation game. Some days to have to 'work' for it. Like I said cherubs, this thread was started for the intent of seeking links of avoiding tilt and recovering from going on tilt. It now seems to be focused on my Baccarat play.
Yesterday afternoon I sat at the $25 tables and got murdered, losing 7 bets in a row, so I stopped betting, recommenced after a few hands and proceeded to lose another 6 in a row, continually losing hands by 1 point, 8-7 etc, I quit this table. This is the nature of the beast, I know scenarios like this can happen, after all we are dealing with random outcomes and Baccarat can be a bitch sometimes, this arvo she was a whore. After a mild break I made my way to the VIP area, performed a "chip gear" change and over the course of the next 15 hours, despite going up and down like a yoyo, I "grinded" my forced re-buyin to a 400% profit margin, profiting $3k, a hell of a lot more had I not been slapped early (I continually round up or add on for the buggeration factor). I still utilized my usual "maths odds based" mode of play with the inclusion of another "solid pattern capturing technique".
If your thinking, "hey all you have to do is select ABC and bet XYZ, there is a lot to it than that, which is why those that I have either watched me, could not replicate what I do, simply because they are not me. I am constantly looking for ways to keep bets low, as the odds never change no matter how much you bet, lot of it comes down to tenacity, savvy if you like.
For those giving me grief, I've just pulled over a month and half salary (when I used to work), in three days, obviously I need to avoid those tilt moments as rare as they may be. what got me through undoubtedly was my money management techniques, it is the only way you can approach this game, because each hand is non-correlated and you can't predict zilch. It was a rather tough session, all sessions won't be like this and they haven't been, the job was done while doubling my usual goal target, if they make me work harder than usual, I try to make the required effort worth my while.
January 8th, 2014 at 12:24:47 PM
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I will never understand why people insist on believing that "money management" can overcome a negative expectation game. It's mind-boggling.
January 8th, 2014 at 12:37:36 PM
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Quote: AxiomOfChoiceI will never understand why people insist on believing that "money management" can overcome a negative expectation game. It's mind-boggling.
It's hilarious that you read all that and all you
see is MM. He doesn't use MM for bet selection,
how would that be possible. He uses MM and
BS together, like any pro player does. It's
the weekend amateurs that can't be bothered
with either.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
January 8th, 2014 at 12:40:04 PM
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Quote: EvenBobIt's hilarious that you read all that and all you
see is MM. He doesn't use MM for bet selection,
how would that be possible. He uses MM and
BS together, like any pro player does. It's
the weekend amateurs that can't be bothered
with either.
I certainly don't doubt that he is using lots of BS
January 8th, 2014 at 12:50:56 PM
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Well, as I said, it's ME who is killing the casinos with my MM, BS, and PD [that last standing for Pattern Detection]. Of course, I can only drop hints as to why it works, because those dudes visit here and they will learn my secrets.
Hint #3
Hint #3
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
January 8th, 2014 at 1:30:52 PM
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DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
January 8th, 2014 at 2:15:34 PM
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Quote: IbeatyouracesRight, and it's not basic strategy. That and money management don't add up to a hill of beans and not one professional that beats casinos play this way.
So you think pro's don't use correct bet selection
and MM. That's all there is, except voodoo, maybe.
Is that what you use?
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
January 8th, 2014 at 2:25:37 PM
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Quote: EvenBobSo you think pro's don't use correct bet selection
and MM. That's all there is, except voodoo, maybe.
Is that what you use?
When you have an edge you bet. When you don't, you don't. That's all there is to it. In the end your results will be the edge times the volume of bets made. If every bet has a house edge then you lose in the long term. It doesn't matter what "money management" or "bet selection" you use.
It may be that the casino make some mistakes and gives you back more than your expected losses (eg, poorly-designed loss rebates). But the only way to make money at the game itself is to bet with an edge. This is not rocket science; anyone who has passed a high school math course knows this. If all the bets carry a negative expectation, it doesn't matter which one you select. Either way you are selecting to make a bet that loses money in the long term.
BS, indeed. A whole pile of it.
January 8th, 2014 at 2:45:06 PM
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Quote: AxiomOfChoiceWhen you have an edge you bet.
That's actually true. What most people don't
realize is that, yes, the edge is constant in
the long run, but in some games it moves
around in the extreme short term and the
game is exploitable at those times. You have
to be able to recognize those times, however,
that's the rub. It's somewhat like the mileage
in your car. You get 38mpg on the highway
overall, but not on every stretch of highway.
Driving in mountains will reduce it for short
periods when you climb. It's not a steady
constant.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
January 8th, 2014 at 3:04:15 PM
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DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
January 8th, 2014 at 3:06:35 PM
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Quote: IbeatyouracesHole carding, card counting, etc. What you use is voodoo. An edge doesn't happen in baccarat, period!
That's exactly what I told Phil Ivey !
Shed not for her
the bitter tear
Nor give the heart
to vain regret
Tis but the casket
that lies here,
The gem that filled it
Sparkles yet
January 8th, 2014 at 3:07:17 PM
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Quote: EvenBobThat's actually true. What most people don't
realize is that, yes, the edge is constant in
the long run, but in some games it moves
around in the extreme short term and the
game is exploitable at those times.
Yes, it does. This is not exactly a secret. This is how card counting at blackjack works. When you have the edge you bet big; when you don't have the edge you don't bet, or bet small. Nothing new here.
However, countless studies have shown that baccarat is NOT one of those games. Effect of removal of cards is minimal; having an edge is extremely rare. There is a reason that they give you a pen and paper at the baccarat table but not at the blackjack table.
Of course you might be able to get an edge another way. If you have complete information of what card is coming next (through a flashed card, or through spotting a card during the "ribbon spread" procedure) your edge can be MASSIVE for that hand. If you have partial next-card information (say, though edge-sorting) you have a pretty good edge. Again, none of this is a secret. Also, none of this has anything to do with money management. Perhaps you could refer to sizing your bet correctly for the size of your edge and the variance (ie, Kelly betting) to be "money management", but most people would not use this term for that.
You might also be able to make a profit another way. A casino might comp you too much (more than your expected losses) or they might give you a poorly-designed loss rebate whose value can exceed your expected losses if you bet optimally. Again, this is not "bet selection", nor is it "money management".
I am well aware that there are a lot of ways to beat casinos, and, with the right conditions, any game can be beaten. But not through "money management", and not though "bet selection" A game (any game) can only be beaten by having enough information that you are able to wager with the edge, or by getting the casino to give you more outside of the game than your expected losses in the game.
It is extremely clear to me what is happening here. The OP is using some ridiculous betting system with some sort of a negative progression, that allows him to book winning sessions most of the time. Whenever he is ahead by his goal, he stops. So, he wins most sessions. He calls this "grinding out money". Unfortunately, these betting systems don't work -- you have occasional large losses which wipe out all your wins and then some. When he has one of these large losses he attributes it to "tilt" and posts to some forum about "how to avoid tilt". Gee, he would be a winning player, if only he didn't have these massive losses. Yes, it would be easy to win if only you could violate the laws of mathematics. If only...
January 8th, 2014 at 3:12:25 PM
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Quote: AxiomOfChoice
However, countless studies have shown that baccarat is NOT one of those games. .
Let the studies run your life, then, I
think that's best for you. For others
it's not quite good enough. I have
little interest in discussing this in
depth, those days are far behind me.
My 'wising up' days are over.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
January 8th, 2014 at 3:15:29 PM
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Quote: EvenBobLet the studies run your life, then, I
think that's best for you. For others
it's not quite good enough. I have
little interest in discussing this in
depth, those days are far behind me.
My 'wising up' days are over.
It's simple math, Bob. I could write and run a computer simulation that would prove this in a day or so. It's not difficult.
January 8th, 2014 at 3:19:56 PM
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Quote: AxiomOfChoiceIt's simple math, Bob. .
Yes, the math is an excellent tool to use when
figuring out how a game can't be beat. For
figuring out how to beat a game, though, it's
pretty useless most of the time. You have to
discover that on your own and verify it with
math later.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
January 8th, 2014 at 3:21:26 PM
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Quote: EvenBobYes, the math is an excellent tool to use when
figuring out how a game can't be beat. For
figuring out how to beat a game, though, it's
pretty useless most of the time. You have to
discover that on your own and verify it with
math later.
Wow, that's completely inaccurate.
January 8th, 2014 at 3:23:12 PM
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Quote: AxiomOfChoiceWow, that's completely inaccurate.
Wow, no it isn't. Because you have no idea what
I'm talking about. And I'm about done talking...
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
January 8th, 2014 at 3:25:11 PM
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Quote: EvenBobWow, no it isn't. Because you have no idea what
I'm talking about.
Bob, I know exactly what you're talking about.
Quote:And I'm about done talking...
I'll believe that when I see it.
January 8th, 2014 at 3:25:20 PM
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Quote: TranscendWhat I don't understand is why your post contain nothing but personal attacks and nothing of sustinence? I have asked you very simple questions that you seemingly ignore and decide instead to comment on something with no bearing. Every time you do, that thread you pushed so hard for me to read keeps coming to mind and I can't help but think you are the epitome of the people you say not to wise up.
Welcome to the EvenBob experience!
"So drink gamble eat f***, because one day you will be dust." -ontariodealer
January 8th, 2014 at 3:31:35 PM
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Quote: BuzzardJohn Patrick is the Wizard's mentor.
30 days for Slander... (if I was a moderator)
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
January 8th, 2014 at 3:43:10 PM
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Quote: thecesspit30 days for Slander... (if I was a moderator)
I always that that truth was the best defense against slander. But, I have Aceofspades on retainer, you know, just in case some
zealous DA is running for re-election.
Shed not for her
the bitter tear
Nor give the heart
to vain regret
Tis but the casket
that lies here,
The gem that filled it
Sparkles yet
January 8th, 2014 at 3:46:05 PM
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Quote: AxiomOfChoiceBob, I know exactly what you're talking about.
And obviously from your responses, you have
no idea. Stop kidding yourself.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
January 8th, 2014 at 3:46:48 PM
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DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
January 8th, 2014 at 3:47:15 PM
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Quote: EvenBobAnd obviously from your responses, you have
no idea. Stop kidding yourself.
Sure, Bob. I keep forgetting that you know everything about everything. No book lurnin' needed for you!
