poiklp
poiklp
Joined: Jan 30, 2013
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April 3rd, 2013 at 11:58:57 AM permalink
I figured i'd try it just to try it, yeah i know it's stupid and not supposed to win, but what casino's are there that would allow like... 7 double ups?
Ayecarumba
Ayecarumba
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April 3rd, 2013 at 12:11:52 PM permalink
Quote: poiklp

I figured i'd try it just to try it, yeah i know it's stupid and not supposed to win, but what casino's are there that would allow like... 7 double ups?



Starting with a $10 base bet, you would only be at $1,280 after seven doubles:

10
20
40
80
160
320
640
1280

Every strip casino, and most downtown properties would be happy to accept your action.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
poiklp
poiklp
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April 3rd, 2013 at 12:17:48 PM permalink
alright thanks
AcesAndEights
AcesAndEights
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April 9th, 2013 at 2:27:51 PM permalink
I don't understand the Martingale. All that pain to win one unit if it even works.
"So drink gamble eat f***, because one day you will be dust." -ontariodealer
FinsRule
FinsRule
Joined: Dec 23, 2009
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April 9th, 2013 at 2:46:29 PM permalink
Quote: poiklp

alright thanks



Let us know how much you win! Odds are that you will.
Nareed
Nareed
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April 9th, 2013 at 3:33:52 PM permalink
Quote: Ayecarumba

Starting with a $10 base bet, you would only be at $1,280 after seven doubles:



Just check that the table supports those limits.

But, seriously, I'd be happy to exchange your $640 for $10 any time you feel like it. That's a 50% discount! ;)
Donald Trump is a fucking criminal
Mission146
Mission146
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April 9th, 2013 at 5:23:00 PM permalink
Quote: AcesAndEights

I don't understand the Martingale. All that pain to win one unit if it even works.



The best way to think about the Martingale is in the sense of Laying Money on a huge favorite in a sporting event. For example, let's say that I have USC taking on West Liberty University in College Football, now you've probably never heard of West Liberty University, so let me assure you that it would a ridiculous match-up. If I lay some bones on U.S.C. and win, I'm going to have to lay an absurd amount of money to win $100, but if I lose (unlikely), then I will lose an absurd amount of money.

In this sense, I look at someone committed to the Martingale System as making one bet. I have no idea why, but Roulette seems to be one of the most popular games in which to play the Martingale.

Let's say you're going to start with $10 and you are committed to a six-step Marty, so $10-$20-$40-$80-$160-$320. If you win at any point in this Marty chain, then you are ahead $10.

Now, the probability of losing in Single-Zero Roulette is 19/37 on an Even-Money Bet. You would have to lose six of those in a row for your Marty to fail, and the odds of that happening are: (19/37)^6 = 0.018336281232080496

Therefore, you have a 1 - 0.018336281232080496 = 0.9816637187679195 chance of winning $10 and a 0.018336281232080496 chance of losing $630.

-630 * 0.018336281232080496 = -11.551857176210713

10 * 0.9816637187679195 = 9.816637187679195

-11.551857176210713 + 9.816637187679195 = -1.7352199885315187 EV of Six-Step Marty

The Expected Value as relates the House Edge is going to be a function of the average bet, which is not going to be $630 in total bets (obviously).
-1.7352199885315187/0.02702702702702703 = -64.20313957566618

It appears (if my logic is right, and it may not be) that your average bet should be about $64.20.

I should also add that you have to have 63 successful Martingale attempts prior to losing one in order to be Even. Based on the probability of a successful six-step Marty run on Single-Zero Roulette:

1 - (0.9816637187679195)^63 = 0.6883604024402588 or a failure rate of 68.836%

If your average bet is $64.2 and you go for 63 attempts, then the total amount bet is -64.20313957566618 * 63 = -4044.7977932669696

If the Expected loss of the Six-Step Marty is -1.7352199885315187 per 63 attempts, then 63 * -1.7352199885315187 = -109.31885927748567

If you divide 109.31885927748567/4044.7977932669696 = 0.02702702702702703 which is the House Edge of single-zero Roulette.

Coincidence? Absolutely not.

Conclusion

I would imagine that all but the most determined would drop four or five in a row and then bail. I know I certainly would because you and I both understand the independence of future results to the past results. Obviously, if you have lost five in a row and are doing a six-step Marty, the Odds of failure are no longer 0.018336281232080496, but are now 19/37.

In any case, though, if someone is truly committed to a six-step Marty, then I look at is as one bet comparable to Laying the Favorite (Huge favorite!) in Sports Betting. You're betting $630, though not all at once, to win $10 and you have a 98.17% chance of success.

There are only two reasons to run a Martingale:

1.) Someone is under the misguided impression that it should be a long-term winner.

AND

2.) Someone just likes to play Roulette that way.

If someone is doing it for reason #2, and is not risking money that is needed for essentials, (i.e. playing with entertainment money) then that's just fine because it doesn't make the long-term expectation of the game any better or worse.

That is why The Wizard says that all gambling systems are worthless. The important thing to note about the term, "Worthless," is that the term does not necessarily denote negative value, it denotes no positive or negative value whatseover, mathematically.

However, there can be a subjective value to gambling systems insofar as they may or may not increases one's entertainment/enjoyment value. If they do that, then while they are still worthless in the mathematical sense, they have a positive entertainment value for the player. If the player is going to expose x bankroll to a negative expectation game, then he may as well play in whatever manner he most enjoys.
Vultures can't be choosers.
AlanMendelson
AlanMendelson
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April 9th, 2013 at 6:50:38 PM permalink
Depending on your bankroll for your "try" you want the casino that has the highest betting limits.

I think you will find the highest limits at Bellagio, Wynn, Caesars. I think Caesars has a $50,000 limit on the pass/don't pass at craps. That's pretty good limits for a martingale with the minimum bet $25.
rdw4potus
rdw4potus
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April 9th, 2013 at 7:11:48 PM permalink
If it could only be one property, maybe something like Golden Nugget would be good? They have limits as low as $5 and as high as several thousand (you'd stay in the building but change tables).

If I went to Vegas to try this, I'd start at Jokers Wild on a $2 game (do they still have that table?) and keep track of the series that had extended to the house max. Then, at some interval, i'd go to a high-limit table with liberal strip rules and play the hands that i "owed" myself.
"So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
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April 10th, 2013 at 12:38:41 AM permalink
Quote: poiklp

I figured i'd try it just to try it, yeah i know it's stupid and not supposed to win, but what casino's are there that would allow like... 7 double ups?



Determine ahead of time that without question you will not balk at the big bet end. You will find your opportunity to risk the 7th double up will come right away, possibly first session.

Quote: AcesAndEights

I don't understand the Martingale. All that pain to win one unit if it even works.



Yep, then poiklp will be back to where he started, and needing a shower.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder

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