Meegs
Meegs
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February 18th, 2013 at 8:17:34 AM permalink
On a full table, 6 deck shoe, I dealt 5 blackjacks in a single hand last month. Everyone told me that was incredibly rare. Then, last night, I did it again. Just how rare is this?
poiklp
poiklp
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April 3rd, 2013 at 12:08:52 PM permalink
you have a 2.41 chance of getting a black jack... so .0241^5=.00000000796

which is the same as saying... if you deal 100 million hands, that should occur 796 times
tringlomane
tringlomane
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April 3rd, 2013 at 12:47:35 PM permalink
Quote: poiklp

you have a 2.41 chance of getting a black jack... so .0241^5=.00000000796

which is the same as saying... if you deal 100 million hands, that should occur 796 times



This isn't quite right. OP said a "full table", which can be up to 8 people if you include the dealer as well. Also, you should consider changing BJ games if the probability of a blackjack is 2.41%. For an infinite deck it's 2*(1/13)*(4/13) = 0.47338 = 1 in 21.125.

From this we can use the binomial distribution to figure out how likely it is to get 5 (or more) blackjacks from 8 hands. It is roughly once every 85k rounds or so at a full table. If you get 60 rounds/hr at a full table, then you'll see it happen once every 1400 hours or so on average.

Card removal probably ups it to about 1 in 2000 hours of play for a 6-deck game on average, but I don't want to get into all of that at the second.
Ibeatyouraces
Ibeatyouraces
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April 3rd, 2013 at 7:40:21 PM permalink
deleted
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
poiklp
poiklp
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April 4th, 2013 at 12:39:11 PM permalink
yeah... your right i didn't really read it clearly
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