Wizard as a 6 figure professional gamber (from Wizard of the Venetian)
Quote: EvenBobSo you were planning on the real estate going up in value faster than the $100K a year you could earn off the $350K? Then sell and make a big profit. Is that right?
When I was in California from 1998-2007 nearly everyone in the group had one degree, if not two. But two secretaries were cleaning up by buying multiple homes (4 apiece). I wonder how they eventually made out?
Without knowing any of the Wizard's specifics (and I don't want to know), the decision is usually more complex than what EvenBob is making it out. You have to factor in the family feelings. You also have to factor in the idea of spending thousands on rent while your mother in law is telling you how much money everyone else is making. Plus AP gaming has it's inherent ups and downs which is harder to do when you have children.
But homes in California were certainly going up by more than $100K per year. In some cases two to three times that amount.
Hopefully in sharing all this somebody will learn something. Maybe it is also therapeutic for me to talk about it.
Quote: pacomartin
But homes in California were certainly going up by more than $100K per year. In some cases two to three times that amount.
We had a hotshot kid in MI who was the number
1 real estate agent in the country for 2 years in a row.
Since the 80's he invested millions in rental property.
When the bottom dropped out in 2008, he lost millions
on paper. He stopped making improvements, was late
on mortgages. He was cited and fined a bunch of
times and last year, at age 50, he ended it all with
a gun. He never thought things could get this bad.
Not in America.
Well, if you believe in karma (wasn't there a thread about that?), those Sands stock options should increase to about exactly $350K. ;) (I'm kidding of course).Quote: WizardIn 2009 I thought of the spending my 350K bankroll towards a house as a loan to myself, which I would pay back with future revenue elsewhere. However, after the beating I took in real estate I felt I had to punish myself, put my nose the grindstone, and at least try to keep my house above water by paying down extra principle. The fact of the matter is I can make a lot more consulting than I can gambling, even with a large bankroll. I'd rather be playing, but when you have three kids in private school and a million dollar mortgage you prioritize differently, and what you want to do takes a backseat to what you have to do. Call me old fashioned, but I feel a real man pays his bills and makes sure his family is taken care of.
Hopefully in sharing all this somebody will learn something. Maybe it is also therapeutic for me to talk about it.
Thanks for sharing. That's admirable. Some people only gloat when their risks pay off, but conveniently leave out the downsides.
Quote: WizardThe fact of the matter is I can make a lot more consulting than I can gambling, even with a large bankroll. I'd rather be playing, but when you have three kids in private school and a million dollar mortgage you prioritize differently, and what you want to do takes a backseat to what you have to do. Call me old fashioned, but I feel a real man pays his bills and makes sure his family is taken care of.
Hopefully in sharing all this somebody will learn something. Maybe it is also therapeutic for me to talk about it.
I am guessing that your crime was moving into a different house in 2009. Maybe with more bedrooms, nicer parks, better schools. Something our parents would have done for us.You may have to do your second choice for a career, to provide them stability. Good parents have been making that choice for decades.
But it is so ironic that it actually looks like being a professional gambler was the safer choice, then buying a single family home. Something is whack!
Quote: WizardIn 2009 I thought of the spending my 350K bankroll towards a house as a loan to myself, which I would pay back with future revenue elsewhere. However, after the beating I took in real estate I felt I had to punish myself, put my nose the grindstone, and at least try to keep my house above water by paying down extra principle. The fact of the matter is I can make a lot more consulting than I can gambling, even with a large bankroll. I'd rather be playing, but when you have three kids in private school and a million dollar mortgage you prioritize differently, and what you want to do takes a backseat to what you have to do. Call me old fashioned, but I feel a real man pays his bills and makes sure his family is taken care of.
Hopefully in sharing all this somebody will learn something. Maybe it is also therapeutic for me to talk about it.
+1 on your priorities Wizard. Self sacrifice comes with the man card's family plan. I am encouraged that you are doing right by them.
Quote: AyecarumbaWould the Sands allow you to run classes or seminars for a fee? With the proper marketing, I think you could do quite well "coaching" a few days or weekends each month.
Quote: WongBoyeah, the Sands wants to better educate the public so they can do better at casino gambling...
sounds like a plotline from "fantasy island"
The reason I made this suggestion is that many potential table gamers are intimidated, so they don't even bother to learn, and will just widow shop, play slots, or stick to the same BS blackjack they have been using since college. I believe there is a market that will pay for the professional coaching, (covering everything from rules for "exotic" games (Pai Gow, Big Table Baccarat, Craps), to advantage play) that the Wizard can uniquely provide.
The unknown is whether is new employer would allow him to pursue the venture. It could be seen as not in their best interest, since graduates of the Wizard's academy would stay away from sucker bets, but a case could be made that having a player sit down and play a 2% HE game, is always better than having them just walk on by.
Quote: AyecarumbaThe unknown is whether is new employer would allow him to pursue the venture. It could be seen as not in their best interest, since graduates of the Wizard's academy would stay away from sucker bets, but a case could be made that having a player sit down and play a 2% HE game, is always better than having them just walk on by.
I disagree. A casino has 1%, 2%, and 8% house edge games. It doesn't matter to them if a player is only playing 1% games, as long as he is betting big money. The point is to win the war, not the battle. Although Mike can't say what he is doing, I would imagine that it would be very profitable for the Sands to have him educate big money players as to the best plays. The Wizard has a sufficient reputation that big players may go to the Sands for personal instruction.
Sands 3000 slot machines in Pennsylvania made $76 million last quarter, they paid a whopping $41 million in tax, leaving $35 million for operations.
Sands 3000 slot machines in Nevada made $41 million last quarter, they paid a tiny $3 million in tax, leaving $38 million for operations.
To make up for the huge tax in Pennsylvania, they have a guarantee of no competition within 50 miles.
The same with low house edge. What matters is how much the expectation is per hour.
If we see the Sands Corporation table game drop go up by $100 million next quarter, maybe that is Mike working his magic.
Quote: kewljPoker seems to be another avenue many card counters have drifted towards. I haven't. I am not all that comfortable with taking money directly from other players, many who obviously can't afford it.
You aren't taking money directly from them, you're taking it indirectly from them, just as you are indirectly taking money from other players when you wong into their games or spread to multiple squares in high counts -- both of which I assume you do as a successful blackjack AP?
... and on the main subject of this thread: I have no doubt it is possible to still be a successful AP. In my opinion, anyone with the skill, desire, dedication, discipline and bankroll to make $X a year with an expected long run of Y hours could take all that and put it into any of a myriad other businesses and make a much bigger X with a much smaller Y. Having said that, if that's really what you like to do, then do it, and don't let any one else's moral judgments bring you down.
The biggest challenge of all for the AP is how to keep doing it year after year without turning into an odious human being. Some APs do it. Others turn into complete sociopaths. The stench of negativity that wafts off of a sizable proportion of gamblers wafts through the air and gets into everything and everyone, including APs -- the longer you hang around it, the worse it gets.
Nevada is a sparsely populated state in the Mojave desert. Pennsylvania is densely populated and teeming with money-laden gamblers. Pennsylvania is also close to NYC which is even more densely populated and teeming with even more gamblers clamoring for the opportunity to be sheared.
It is a matter of getting them in the door. After that, it really doesn't matter too much to the casino how they vary their gambling habits as long as they are wagering at something! That is why most casinos provide a mix of slots, common table games and the more obscure table games. The casino provides the atmosphere and the particular diversions that are desired.
If Pennsylvania politicians were not so greedy would the economy there be better or worse? Would the casinos be larger? More numerous? Is a fifty mile zone of no-competition really beneficial much less necessary to induce investment in a casino?
Steve Wynn is said to have just left Foxboro Massachusetts with his tail between his legs. Is it that other casino firms are simply better at dealing with politicians?
Quote: kewljI am in my ninth year of supporting myself solely from AP. The vast majority of my income has been from card counting, but have branched into a bit of other elementary stuff this year. (more on that in a minute) I have yet to have a hundred thousand year, although this is the third consecutive year I have hit the half way point at some point in the first 6 months and have finished upper five figures in the previous 3 years, so it is not out of the realm of possibility. My first few years I was playing low limit games to a small bankroll and wasn't even dreaming of 6 figures. I was happy to be able to pay the rent. Eventually my bankroll was able to grow and I relocated from east coast to Vegas. I now have the bankroll to safely play the stakes required to have a reasonable chance to hit that goal, BUT there are other issues that are likely to prevent me from doing so.
I also have recently just finished up playing over 600 low limit matchplay coupons at one property in a 10 week period. I check a number of sites to keep up to date on all the bonuses and promotions that various casinos are running and try to take advantage of as many as possible. There is 'hidden" value in this type of play that you might not initially realize. This year I have won an automobile and $1000 free play in drawings that I was in as a result of this machine play.
Long time reader here. Who is this yahoo? A guy shows up out of the blue claiming to be Mr Pro Blackjack player and no one questions him? Can anyone vouch for this member? I don't beleive a professional player is going to spill details like this. How do you go about playing 600 matchplay coupons from one property? If you did manageto score this number, are they really going to let you play this many? Someone that plays enough slot machines and poker machines to qualify for and win a car sounds like a degenerate gambler spending his welfare check at the slot machine to me.
Please do not insult me and my fellow degenerates who also happen to gamble our welfare money.Quote: BJmanSomeone that plays enough slot machines and poker machines to qualify for and win a car sounds like a degenerate gambler spending his welfare check at the slot machine to me.
Now, I admit... much of your post points out certain defects inherent in the internet... I believe there are a few expressions and a quite a few cartoons floating around in cyberspace that will humorously support the defects inherent in a lack of identity check and lack of consequences for exaggerated statements.
Long, long ago I discovered a Twitter account belonging to someone who had a history of posting a string of Table Game victories around town punctuated by a few losses. His track record was very good and he never offered seminars or asked for money. After a few frustrating searching-sessions I found that under a different ID he sold training seminars and individual coaching but never had any of his many, many winning sessions witnessed or authenticated. So I figured he was a liar. Its not hard to conclude such things.
It is possible that he has dozens of different IDs and opens dozens of accounts at various casinos but keeps all accounts mildly active so as to obtain a few dozen mailers. Multiple mailers, multiple IDs, perhaps even multiple shills, and its not too hard to travel around town using up match play coupons. Now whether its more likely 60 than 600, I don't know. I too am doubtful of the 600 figure but in the days of computers and Mail Boxes Etc. its not all that hard to play at a casino all day long but have several identities. Its not to hard to drive to another casino and play there as twelve different people also. Match plays don't always require a drivers license as well as a players card. It would be a nuisance to keep track of all the IDs, shifts used, etc. but is possible though 600 sure seems a difficult figure to obtain. Its like the guy who doesn't work, he just sits in a bar drinking beer and women give him money. It may be hard to believe but once you see him just sitting there calmly drinking his beer and licking his eyebrows, you realize there are always extreme cases.
Quote: BJmanLong time reader here. Who is this yahoo? A guy shows up out of the blue claiming to be Mr Pro Blackjack player and no one questions him? Can anyone vouch for this member? I don't beleive a professional player is going to spill details like this. How do you go about playing 600 matchplay coupons from one property? If you did manageto score this number, are they really going to let you play this many? Someone that plays enough slot machines and poker machines to qualify for and win a car sounds like a degenerate gambler spending his welfare check at the slot machine to me.
I believe there are people who can vouch for this member if they choose to do so but it will take more than a riled up first time poster for that to happen.
Tell us why you are so upset.
Nice first post! And yes, I can vouch for KJ. He's been in the community for many years, and he does indeed make his living from blackjack. Although I think he may want to tone down the very specific details!Quote: BJmanLong time reader here. Who is this yahoo? A guy shows up out of the blue claiming to be Mr Pro Blackjack player and no one questions him? Can anyone vouch for this member? I don't beleive a professional player is going to spill details like this. How do you go about playing 600 matchplay coupons from one property? If you did manageto score this number, are they really going to let you play this many? Someone that plays enough slot machines and poker machines to qualify for and win a car sounds like a degenerate gambler spending his welfare check at the slot machine to me.
Quote:Someone that plays enough slot machines and poker machines to qualify for and win a car sounds like a degenerate gambler spending his welfare check at the slot machine to me.
With all due respect, I don't think that statement is fair to anybody.
My regular casino had a car giveaway promotion on a random Saturday night. You could buy an entry for $10, but with your Player's Club card, you got an automatic entry for every $100 wagered on the slots...and something for tables...more than $100...but I forget what.
In any event, it was a Ford Focus, or something, but it was new and advertisements for a local Ford dealership were all over the place. You had to be present at 10:00p.m., or someone else's name would have been drawn.
I saw everything for this the night before. I would not have been able to be there at 10:00p.m. that Saturday.
In any event, I bet the casino got a discount on that car (if they paid anything at all) for all of the ads for the Ford place, and the Ford place ate a few bucks on the car for the advertising risk.
The funny thing is that this casino doesn't even have a ton of competition. There's another casino 30 miles North, another one 30 miles East and across a State border, and another one about 70 miles Northeast across the same border.
I guarantee they made money on the playing volume they got that night. Like I said, it wasn't a Maserati or anything.
Quote: LonesomeGamblerNice first post! And yes, I can vouch for KJ. He's been in the community for many years, and he does indeed make his living from blackjack. Although I think he may want to tone down the very specific details!
If you have watched the documentaries, nothing he said is any great secret, anymore. The problem is that many AP's have come out and told their full stories because they're not doing it anymore (I assume) and apparently don't give a crap about their fellow professionals. It still makes for a really good documentary, though.
Maybe you're referring to KC? Different guy.Quote: Mission146Quote: LonesomeGamblerNice first post! And yes, I can vouch for KJ. He's been in the community for many years, and he does indeed make his living from blackjack. Although I think he may want to tone down the very specific details!
If you have watched the documentaries, nothing he said is any great secret, anymore. The problem is that many AP's have come out and told their full stories because they're not doing it anymore (I assume) and apparently don't give a crap about their fellow professionals. It still makes for a really good documentary, though.
Most professionals aren't concerned about the advancement of AP. There's a finite amount of money that can be made from certain opportunities, and every additional player who knows about it costs you—personally—a chunk of that money. If a new game pops up that's obviously beatable, I start to analyze it myself and turn to a close group of friends with stronger analytical skills than I possess to figure it out. I don't discuss it publicly to promote advancement within the community. I admit that this is a selfish activity, but profitable APs, especially full-time professionals, learn to be selfish very quickly in this business.Quote: calwatchAnd so what? I look at AP like the practice of magic. There are certain basic tricks which are published in books and on the Internet that are good enough to get amateurs started, but the advancement of magic is continuing through the professional community, developing new illusions, just like Grosjean and the like continue to develop new methods, calculating those odds, and sharing them through their thousand dollar plus books sold only to those who have the secret handshake. Meanwhile you have burned out professionals who want to raise the level of amateur understanding by disclosing their techniques through forums and commercially-available books. By having professionals spill the beans once in a while, it enables the advancement of AP gambling. APs should not be expected to have a monopoly on a play forever.
Incidentally, I bought my copy of that "thousand dollar book" for $250 when it was first published—a personal purchase that has undoubtedly cost fellow APs many, many dollars in the years that followed (there's only so much to go around). I selfishly hope that it becomes even harder to obtain as time goes on. I promise I'm really a nice guy, though!
Furthermore, as in magic, there are "secret" techniques that will hurt everyone when put into the hands of an amateur. Just as the Magician's Code forbids one from performing an illusion that they have not thoroughly practiced and subsequently mastered, APs are careful sharing techniques with players who will not have the experience and professional insight to make them as invisible as a skilled magician makes their illusion. For both the magician and the skilled professional player, this represents a tangible blow to their livelihood.
Quote: CRMousseauThe stench of negativity that wafts off of a sizable proportion of gamblers wafts through the air and gets into everything and everyone
Casinos are loaded with negativity. First there's
the greed of the average player who wants
something for nothing. Then there's the desperation
of chasing losses thats everywhere you turn. Throw
in anger and frustration and you have a toxic mix.
Look at the effect it has on dealers. After just a
couple years, many of them have the attitude
prison guards get because they have to deal with
so much negativity every day. Charming..
Quote: WizardIn 2009 I thought of the spending my 350K bankroll towards a house as a loan to myself, which I would pay back with future revenue elsewhere. However, after the beating I took in real estate I felt I had to punish myself, put my nose the grindstone, and at least try to keep my house above water by paying down extra principle.
Do you consider your real estate beating in housing a good bet but bad outcome? In retrospect do you think your bet size vs risk was properly proportioned?
I was kinda wondering about the realm of what might be called "almost sure thing" bets. (more people have probably been broken by the almost sure thing bets by betting big, I suspect) Though I don't know if this qualifies.
Quote: rxwineDo you consider your real estate beating in housing a good bet but bad outcome?
You always hear that true value is only what people are willing
to pay. Its really driven home when you buy something and it
drastically goes down in value. You start to realize what an
illusion money really is. It only exists as a concept, it its only
what we all agree it is. Makes you realize why for most of our
history man didn't use money to trade with, we used things
we could see and feel and grab onto. Food and furs and lumber
and spices.
Quote: rxwineDo you consider your real estate beating in housing a good bet but bad outcome? In retrospect do you think your bet size vs risk was properly proportioned?
It is easy to say it was a bad buy in retrospect. However, I'm not mad at myself for it. It was a calculated risk that just went bad. To be successful in business and life you have to take a risk, sometimes big ones, at times to get ahead over the long run. Same with professional gambling.
Quote: WizardIt is easy to say it was a bad buy in retrospect. However, I'm not mad at myself for it. .
If it was me that did it, I wouldn't have to be
mad at myself, my wife would be mad enough
for both of us. I would never hear the end of it
and I mean never...
Quote: EvenBobI would never hear the end of it and I mean never...
It was my wife that was the driving force behind it. So at least she can't blame me for that.
Quote: WizardIt was my wife that was the driving force behind it. So at least she can't blame me for that.
Kudo's, then. In life if we could only make mistakes
that were our wives idea, there would be so much
domestic peace in the world. I know a guy who
bought a time share in FL in the 80's and can't get
rid of it, he's been trying for 20 years. Sometimes
his wife will go an entire week without mentioning
it.
Quote: EvenBobCasinos are loaded with negativity. First there's
the greed of the average player who wants
something for nothing. Then there's the desperation
of chasing losses thats everywhere you turn. Throw
in anger and frustration and you have a toxic mix.
Look at the effect it has on dealers. After just a
couple years, many of them have the attitude
prison guards get because they have to deal with
so much negativity every day. Charming..
In years as an AP and recreational gambler, I have sharply reduced my willingness to put up with crybabies. I have had planned all-night gambling sessions turn into 30 or 60 minute quickies simply because of frustration at my inability to find a table not loaded with these nattering nabobs of negativity. It's frustrating. I don't hate them on a personal level, I don't know them on a personal level, but even when they aren't directly attacking me, they are making me hate the thing that I love, and that is completely unconscionable.
Part of the reason I fly to small market towns to gamble is because I can either get an explicit or implied private table for a quarter minimum or less. It's a beautiful thing.
Quote: CRMousseauIt's frustrating. I don't hate them on a personal level, I don't know them on a personal level, but even when they aren't directly attacking me, they are making me hate the thing that I love,
They say you become the thing that you do, whether
you want to or not. And "When you dance with the
devil, the devil doesn't change. The devil changes
you."
Negative places is where the devil lives. It cant help
but rub off on you, a casino is for sure the devils
backyard. Its run by greed, and sustained by greed
and disappointment. Its best to do your thing and
spend as little time there as possible.
Quote: EvenBobThey say you become the thing that you do, whether
you want to or not. And "When you dance with the
devil, the devil doesn't change. The devil changes
you."
Nietzsche is a far better choice: "He who fights with monsters might take care lest he thereby become a monster. And if you gaze for long into an abyss, the abyss gazes also into you."
Quote:Negative places is where the devil lives. It cant help
but rub off on you, a casino is for sure the devils
backyard. Its run by greed, and sustained by greed
and disappointment. Its best to do your thing and
spend as little time there as possible.
Thank you for your feedback.
Quote: CRMousseau"He who fights with monsters might take care lest he thereby become a monster."
The hero in a book or a movie is the guy who
doesn't let himself get sucked down to the
level of the 'monster'. Thats why superhero's
like Batman and Superman were invented,
they never resort to the tactics of the evil villians
they fight.
Greed is the villian in the casino. They want
all your money, not just a small part or their
'fair share', whatever that is. If you have
discipline, and don't let them drag you down
to their level, thats 90% of the battle.
Quote: EvenBobThe hero in a book or a movie is the guy who
doesn't let himself get sucked down to the
level of the 'monster'. Thats why superhero's
like Batman and Superman were invented,
they never resort to the tactics of the evil villians
they fight.
Greed is the villian in the casino. They want
all your money, not just a small part or their
'fair share', whatever that is. If you have
discipline, and don't let them drag you down
to their level, thats 90% of the battle.
Funny, I've seen APs that exhibit that exact same attitude. You ever see someone spreading $25 to 7x$500 on a game with a 1% player edge off the top and keep the silvers in tip-resistant $2.50 piles to cash in at the end?
No, but I have to wonder if you have. We're ostensibly talking about a counter here, and one who can afford a 7x$500 max bet, so I have to wonder why this counter would bother spreading in a +1% off the top game? The information as presented does not ring true.Quote: CRMousseauFunny, I've seen APs that exhibit that exact same attitude. You ever see someone spreading $25 to 7x$500 on a game with a 1% player edge off the top and keep the silvers in tip-resistant $2.50 piles to cash in at the end?
I do agree with the rest of the recent discussion, though—it's important to not let the casino environment get a hold on you. It's even worse with APs at times, because in addition to the general negative energy of the casino, you're also treated like a criminal and a scumbag if the casino realizes that you're using your brain more than they feel is fair. I constantly find myself having to make a conscious change in mental attitude when I'm in casinos; it's important to avoid letting the negativity rub off on you.
1) Now that the Wizard is committed to the Venetian, is he allowed to gamble on their properties?
2) In previous places, the Wizard has mentioned that he didn't count cards at blackjack as a form of professional courtesy since those casinos were a source of his income. However, now that those other casinos (other than the Venetian) are no longer part of his income, will he feel free to count cards at those non-Venetian casinos?
Quote: konceptum1) Now that the Wizard is committed to the Venetian, is he allowed to gamble on their properties?
2) In previous places, the Wizard has mentioned that he didn't count cards at blackjack as a form of professional courtesy since those casinos were a source of his income. However, now that those other casinos (other than the Venetian) are no longer part of his income, will he feel free to count cards at those non-Venetian casinos?
1) I won't speak for Wiz, but we here in NY aren't allowed to gamble at sister properties. I think I remember reading here that many Vegas places don't hold this restriction to their employees.
2) Again, just me personally, but if I get nicked for casino hijinks ANYWHERE, I lose my job. Doesn't matter if it's our immediate rival down the highway or some card club across the country, if I get caught, I get gone. Granted, I'd have to do something pretty special for it to go that far (getting into any number of the surveillance databases, BOLO, OSN, Griffin, etc), but the risk is there.
I'm glad you asked, because I almost asked him myself. Really to any casino employee - other than getting drunk at your place of work (which we all know is not a good look) how do you feel about being an employee and a customer at the same place? Good, bad, or indifferent?
But if you're not an employee, and just a contractor / outside consultant, do the same rules apply?Quote: Face1) I won't speak for Wiz, but we here in NY aren't allowed to gamble at sister properties. I think I remember reading here that many Vegas places don't hold this restriction to their employees.
Even for things that aren't illegal, just frowned upon?Quote: Face2) Again, just me personally, but if I get nicked for casino hijinks ANYWHERE, I lose my job. Doesn't matter if it's our immediate rival down the highway or some card club across the country, if I get caught, I get gone. Granted, I'd have to do something pretty special for it to go that far (getting into any number of the surveillance databases, BOLO, OSN, Griffin, etc), but the risk is there.
Quote: konceptumBut if you're not an employee, and just a contractor / outside consultant, do the same rules apply?
No. We've had training with consultants that, as part of our trainings, had played on our tables. Some were even AP's who conducted AP play on our tables and brought back to us info on weaknesses. This policy only applies to those directly employed. As an aside, if you work in the Class II Bingo/Slots halls, you CAN gamble at the Class III facility, but that's the only exception.
Quote: konceptumEven for things that aren't illegal, just frowned upon?
Like counting? Indeed. If, say, I were to jaunt down to Presque Isle and count some cards, chances are nothing will happen. If I were to do good, probably still nothing. If I did good enough to get 86'd, maybe still nothing. But if, for whatever reason, one of their people decided I showed enough skill or potential to be a threat and plopped my name into the BOLO (Be On Look Out) list, that list would make its way to my place of employment and I'd be fired.
My apologies. After re-reading your previous post, I understand now. Essentially, anything that makes you do reflects upon your employer, so if something you do is "bad enough", then the employer would not like it. So, count cards with small betting and minor spread, probably nobody cares. Bet large and major spread, and word gets back to the boss.Quote: FaceLike counting? Indeed. If, say, I were to jaunt down to Presque Isle and count some cards, chances are nothing will happen. If I were to do good, probably still nothing. If I did good enough to get 86'd, maybe still nothing. But if, for whatever reason, one of their people decided I showed enough skill or potential to be a threat and plopped my name into the BOLO (Be On Look Out) list, that list would make its way to my place of employment and I'd be fired.
I noticed this on my recent trip to Laughlin. While there, I stopped and played bingo, mainly because one of the girls working there was extremely attractive. I played the minimum I could while striking up conversation with her. After bingo was over, her and I went to the main casino floor where we played some slots for a bit while conversing. Things progressed after that. It wasn't until later that I realized I had never seen an employee actually gamble in their place of employment before.Quote: FaceNo. We've had training with consultants that, as part of our trainings, had played on our tables. Some were even AP's who conducted AP play on our tables and brought back to us info on weaknesses. This policy only applies to those directly employed. As an aside, if you work in the Class II Bingo/Slots halls, you CAN gamble at the Class III facility, but that's the only exception.
Quote: pacomartinBut it is so ironic that it actually looks like being a professional gambler was the safer choice, then buying a single family home. Something is whack!
You think that's funny... In the late 90's I was real-estate rich but cash-poor, frustrated at watching the stock market explode while I had no money to invest in it. So I sold my real estate, cleared about $200k I think, and promptly put it int the stock market, and maxed out on margin. Then of course the market crashed and I lost just about everything, well over six figures. I remember calculated that if I'd gone to Vegas and played blackjack for $100 a hand, 40 hours a week, for a year, without counting cards, just playing basic strategy, I'd have more money left over at the end of the year than I did from my stock market investment. When people frown on gambling as foolishly throwing away money, I tell them I lost more in the stock market than I've ever lost gambling.
After rebuilding my fortune, I refused to put another dime in the stock market and stuck only to real estate. Fortunately I've fared better than the Wizard. And about that...
I'm glad the Wizard mentioned that it was his wife who wanted the new house, because I didn't want him to have to take the heat for the fallout of the purchase, but I was biting my tongue because I knew the details but didn't think it was okay to say publicly, but he laid it out himself, so there you go. The Wizard knows I tend to discourage unnecessary luxury but I can't fault him for placing his family's feelings over mine. :) Right after the purchase I did mention the possible silver lining, and that's really what I wanted to write about here:
Real estate math is kind of a specialty of mine, but I find that most people don't really understand it all that well. For example, most people seem to think that the big advantage of buying a home is that you stop "throwing your money away on rent". But if you buy, you "throw your money away" on expenses like taxes, insurance, and maintenance, none of which build any equity. The real advantage in buying a home is that you freeze your monthly payments for 30 years, vs. renting when your rent constantly goes up with inflation. (And so buying doesn't work well in places like Japan that don't have inflation, by the way. There you buy just so you don't have to live in an apartment, and so you can do what you want with your home.)
Appreciation can also turn a home into a good investment, but I don't think anyone should buy a home expecting it to appreciate faster than inflation, because in the long-term appreciation and inflation are closely matched. But if your appreciation outpaces inflation enough than a curious thing happens: It's not just a good investment, your home is actually *free*. It cost you *nothing* to buy it. That is, the gain from appreciation is more than all the expensed money you put into it. It's actually a little better than free, you actually got *paid* to live in your home! The magic number is around 5% appreciation in most cases. So when the Wizard bought the mansion, I told him that the good news was that he needed only 4.5% appreciation for his particular case to make the house "free" for him. I would have crossed my fingers for him but he would have smacked me for being superstitious.
Then of course the real estate market in Vegas continued to plummet.
On the other hand, this is just a paper loss, since he still owns the house. It's not unthinkable that the market will recover, and if it does, then it didn't really matter that he showed a loss on paper during the early years. All that matters is how much it's worth at the point he wants to sell it. And if he never sells, it doesn't really matter much at all.
To see the power of minor differences in the appreciation rate in action, play around with the appreciation rate settings in my Rent vs. Buy Calculator.
Oh, and about the Wizard not counting cards in Vegas: It wasn't so much professional courtesy to clients as the fact that as someone who writes about gambling, he needs access to the casinos and didn't want to risk getting barred from a property. He made an exception to this a few years back when he and I made a wager to see which of us could get kicked out of a casino faster for counting, and we picked a casino that he didn't care if he got bounced from. (Before you ask, it was a tie, because neither of us could get kicked out, even though I think I definitely made the better show of it. And before the AP's want to know where, keep your panties on, because the table max was only $50 at the time, and they don't even have table games there any more.) I should have told stories about things like that when I did the interview on the Wizard's radio show, rather than the lame interview I actually gave. Apologies to both the Wizard and listeners on that one.
Thanks, MichaelBlueJay, I knew I got a killer deal!
Quote: Mission146Thanks, MichaelBlueJay, I knew I got a killer deal!
But do you know that whatever appreciation rate you put into the calculator will hold? That was kind of my point.
To answer the question fairly, I changed the appreciation rate to zero and got, "Buying becomes profitable in year 20."
I'll take it, I see what the rents are doing around here with all the natural gas drilling/fracking going on. At best, my previous landlord (I bought my house in September, 2010) would not have renewed my lease when it would have been due in February of this year, at worst, they'd have found some joke of a pretense to evict us to switch from $475/month rent to $1,000/month rent.
Quote: LonesomeGamblerNo, but I have to wonder if you have. We're ostensibly talking about a counter here, and one who can afford a 7x$500 max bet, so I have to wonder why this counter would bother spreading in a +1% off the top game? The information as presented does not ring true.
Since you're happily calling me a liar (pardon me, implying that I'm a liar), there's clearly no harm in spilling the beans (pardon me, further exciting my imagination) as the game is also now long dead; it was (allegedly) at Legends Casino in Toppenish, Washington, and it was in play around 3-4 years ago. They had a promotion where suited blackjacks paid a bonus equal to your original bet, to a maximum of $50, in addition to the standard 3:2. Even if the dealer also got a blackjack, I might add. So you're basically tacking 1.2% onto a 6 deck game with very good rules. Oh, pardon me, I guess it's only about 0.8% off the top. Liar, liar, pants afire am I!
Notice how the value of this rule also decreases as your bet increases, thus requiring spreading in sufficiently high counts to extract maximum value.
Notice how the value of this rule also decreases as the count decreases, thus requiring dropping to a minimum bet if you wanted to play-all through it.
Also of interest (pardon me, also to imagineer corroborative detail to add verisimilitude to an otherwise bald and unconvincing narrative), they had a sign right next to the table limit stating that "Tipping the dealer is both allowed and appreciated". Normally I would bridle at such chutzpah, but I can see where it came from.
Incidentally, our local casino in Winnipeg, MB just went to half-shoeing their six-deck game pretty much due entirely to one counter who flagrantly spread $25-7x$500 and tipped precisely $0, again making tip-resistant $12.50 BJ caps. I can tell you the detail including the name of the counter in question and the full address of the casino if you want to further publicly question my integrity.
Needless to say, I stand by my original claim.
Quote: MichaelBluejay
I'm glad the Wizard mentioned that it was his wife who wanted the new house, because I didn't want him to have to take the heat for the fallout of the purchase, but I was biting my tongue because I knew the details but didn't think it was okay to say publicly, but he laid it out himself, so there you go.
Back in the late 80's my wife talked me into buying a time
share in FL. I was dead set against it because I listened to
Bruce Williams all the time on the radio and he said you
were insane if you bought a time share. It turns out I was
insane. But women never let you alone if they want something,
thats why I did it. Luckily I was able to unload it in the mid 90's,
or I would still have it today. I know several guys who kept
their's and boy are they sorry.. My wife even admitted it was
a bad idea, a big leap for her.
Couldn't it be traded?
Anything is a good value if the price is right, but timeshares are way, way, way, way overpriced. It's that simple. You can get a better deal on the aftermarket (supply greatly exceeds demand, let me tell you), but even then, the savings usually isn't that much compared to simply booking a luxury hotel or condo a la carte when you travel. And that way is a lot more flexible, too.
