Amount of Splits/Doubles Payout
I saw that the game had about a 2 percent house edge, but considering that the bet cannot possible win if there is a facecard in your hand, and an ace reduces the odds a lot (can only win if dealt another ace), I was wondering if a certain negative true count would move the odds into the players favor? (Using hi-Lo 2-6: +1, 7-9:even, and 10-A: -1)
One other thing I like about the bet is that you can bet more on the sidebet than the hand(so you can still bet minimum when the count is negative).
When I played recently, I'd occasionally throw out a bet whenever the true count was below -2 and was holding my own. Let me know if anyone can crunch the numbers and what the trigger count would be for when to bet it(and possible the odds)! Thanks!
Do you actually HAVE to double or if you are dealt any 9,10, or 11 thatís good enough?
There will of course be strategy changes that will raise the house edge on the main game... youíll split deuces against a face card..... then double (if allowed) both hands, etc....
See pay table 2:
Pot of Gold ó Pay Table 2
TOKENS PAYS PROBABILITY RETURN
7 100 0.000002 0.000203
6 100 0.000027 0.002713
5 100 0.000194 0.019445
4 50 0.000847 0.042333
3 30 0.003866 0.115973
2 12 0.013488 0.161861
1 3 0.148155 0.444466
0 -1 0.833420 -0.833420
Total 1.000000 -0.046426
4.6% house edge. Not sure what splitting fours would add
I have seen the article, but do you know if there is a card counting system that can be used to beat the sidebet similarily to the "lucky lucky" sidebet? That one is vulnerable by using a card counting system that assigns a count of -2 to each Ace, 6, and 8... a -3 to each 7... and a +1 to every other card. That sidebet is at advantage for the player when the true count is +3. Just wondering if anyone knows a system for the "pot of gold" as well.
I don't have the numbers for you, but off the top of my head I'd say hi-lo would have a pretty good inverse correlation with this bet, especially on the double side. Lower cards and fewer aces mean more hard 9 10 11 totals, fewer soft hands. Also slightly more odds of pairs which are not tens.
This page confirms our initial guess.
You want to look at the bottom chart, splits/no index and DDs/no index. That's more representative of how often you get the chance to split/DD, not how often you actually do it. Ignore the other plots.
If the initial HE is 4% this would be quite vulnerable to hi-lo. Since your actions are gonna be different than what a basic strategy player would do, the only way to find out exactly by how much is to run a simulation.