Wizard on LiveStream

Episode #58
Stream Date: 06-17-2021
Length: 01:02:02
Topic: Ask Me Anything

Subjects
Wizard's hair
Boating on Lake Powell
Father's Day trivia (throughout show)
Blackjack: Jack Jack
Slots: Tracking progressives
Correcting other player's play
Slots: Reel mapping
Should designers add a jackpot?
Where to cool off in Vegas
Craps: Dice control
Using promo chips
Favorite video games
"Weird Al" Yankovic
Heather's hair
Flag Day
Gambling math concepts
Advantage play for a living
Chess: Human vs computer
Juneteenth holiday & working
Favorite board games
Gambling math & programming
Slots: Bonus round math
IQ, Mensa, and puzzles
Blackjack: Card counting
Blackjack: Math or simulations?
Craps: Horn numbers
Sports: Parlay boost
Future livestream formats
The Wizard in casinos


-------------------------------------------






-------------------------------------------

Next LiveStream: 07-01-21

QUESTION: Do have any recommendations on where to play Pai Gow Tiles in Vegas or, perhaps, where not to play?

QUESTION: BetMGM online sports betting again

They sometimes offer what they call "risk free bets", which actually have some risk. If you win, you get the winnings plus your wager back, as normal. If you lose, you get a free-bet back for the same amount that, however, does not allow you to keep the wagered amount, only the winnings. You can bet on anything sports.

I figure if it was flipping a fair coin, 50% of the time you win, 25% of the time you break even, 25% of the time you lose. Seems like player advantage to take the bet even if it is not a fair coin. I crunched some numbers against a 10% edge and probably did it wrong, but still seems advantage to player.

Is this a good offer to take?

Quote: odiousgambit

QUESTION: BetMGM online sports betting again

They sometimes offer what they call "risk free bets", which actually have some risk. If you win, you get the winnings plus your wager back, as normal. If you lose, you get a free-bet back for the same amount that, however, does not allow you to keep the wagered amount, only the winnings. You can bet on anything sports.

I figure if it was flipping a fair coin, 50% of the time you win, 25% of the time you break even, 25% of the time you lose. Seems like player advantage to take the bet even if it is not a fair coin. I crunched some numbers against a 10% edge and probably did it wrong, but still seems advantage to player.

Is this a good offer to take?

It is and you should just have someone offset your bet who is simultaneously doing the free bet promotion. There might be better ways, but that's just the one that popped into my head instantly. You will want to create your accounts at different times, not be related and not be in close physical proximity (geotracking) when you do it.

Basically, each player could select opposing sides of a -110 half point run line. One of you would win the bet (and get the money) whilst the other would lose and get the rebate. At that point, you'd just have to make enough to cover the juice on the winning side of the bet and anything over that would be profit.

Quote: Mission146

It is and you should just have someone offset your bet who is simultaneously doing the free bet promotion. There might be better ways, but that's just the one that popped into my head instantly. You will want to create your accounts at different times, not be related and not be in close physical proximity (geotracking) when you do it.

Basically, each player could select opposing sides of a -110 half point run line. One of you would win the bet (and get the money) whilst the other would lose and get the rebate. At that point, you'd just have to make enough to cover the juice on the winning side of the bet and anything over that would be profit.

so far I've noticed they pay no attention to off-setting votes bets, so I could just do it myself

'votes' ... lol.... was just commenting at DT

if you mean both of us need to be in on the promotion, is this a matter of controlling variance?

Quote: odiousgambit

if you mean both of us need to be in on the promotion, is this a matter of controlling variance?

Guaranteed profit, depending on the playthrough requirement of the rebate...which is often only 1x anyway.

Quote: odiousgambit

QUESTION: BetMGM online sports betting again

They sometimes offer what they call "risk free bets", which actually have some risk. If you win, you get the winnings plus your wager back, as normal. If you lose, you get a free-bet back for the same amount that, however, does not allow you to keep the wagered amount, only the winnings. You can bet on anything sports.

I figure if it was flipping a fair coin, 50% of the time you win, 25% of the time you break even, 25% of the time you lose. Seems like player advantage to take the bet even if it is not a fair coin. I crunched some numbers against a 10% edge and probably did it wrong, but still seems advantage to player.

Is this a good offer to take?

Good question. I assume you can also use the "risk free bet" on anything as well as the "free bet."

My advice would be to bet on a big longshot on the money line with both bets.

Let's take the Alabama/Miami (FL) college football game on 9/4/21, for example:

Alabama -1000
Miami (FL) +575

If we assume the same house edge either way, the probability of Miami winning is 14.01%. If they lose, then bet a similar game with the Free Bet.

The following table shows the three possible outcomes after both games.

Event	Pays	Probability	0.00%
Win first game	5.75	14.01%	80.57%
Win second game	4.75	12.05%	57.23%
Lose both	-1	73.94%	-73.94%
Total		100.00%	63.87%

The bottom right cell shows this Risk Free bet is worth 63.87% of face value, based on this game. It would be worth more on a bigger longshot.

wow, thanks, that is shocking

there is something being promoted all the time. Much of it clearly is not to get excited about at all, while this type you have to check around for and wait and hope for

I doubt it is only betMGM doing it but I want to bet using my laptop; many of these outfits are set up expecting you to use your smartphone. Don't have or want one.

PS i note that losing both in your example is around 74% probability. So there's that too to ponder

Just have seen it on youtube too, thanks

I should add 2 things about it. There is generally a limit , last one I saw was $25 being the max to bet, if remembered right

the other thing is that the initial bet was restricted to which event they wanted to promote. This last one was to bet on the first game of the stanley cup. No restriction as to odds on first bet, can't remember if it had to be on the moneyline.

If you lose and you make your second bet with their money, the only restriction is that it can't be more than -200 odds. I said that right, they don't want you to go for the sure thing it seems. So if it was -210 or something, can't do that. That's ironic considering what you said, and also if you win you get peanuts and they keep their portion . They have it backwards

But on this second bet, you can bet on 'any sports'