Predictions for 2011

CB Richard Ellis is a global real estate investment firm. They recently released a 100 page detailed report on the gaming business in Las Vegas and stated that they don't believe a comeback is imminent in the next year. The report is very detailed and is not available to the general public.

Several factors have been perceived as very positive. The strip gaming revenue seems to have bottomed last October 2009. There have been some stellar months in 2010 including February (Chinese New Year's) and August (last month to report as of today). Sands reported a very positive 3rd quarter including being back in the black on their Las Vegas properties.

A news article about the report was in the Las Vegas Sun written by Liz Benston .

I think it is significant that MGM Resorts are not showing improvement in either their 1st quarter and their 3rd quarter report. With gaming revenue up, you would expect at the very least, that the MGM Resorts would show more leveling off of total revenue.

Wynn will report 3rd quarter on this Tuesday. Naturally the big news will all be in Asia, but hopefully Wynn Las Vegas will at least have bottomed out.

There was an article in the New York Post that says that Carl Icahn is unloading furniture to linens from the Fontainbleau . The only reason to do that seems to be that he is going to flip the project to another developer.

Quote: pacomartin

There have been some stellar months in 2010 including February and August.
Sands reported being in the black.
I think it is significant that MGM Resorts are not showing improvement.

I wonder. We often use the term "Vegas" in a sense meaning "casino revenue in general". Now we all know that casinos do vary. Dotty's is not included in what most newspaper readers think of as "Vegas". We all realize there are various tiers involving the mega casinos. We all know individual performance will in fact vary but in general I think that "Vegas Revenue" should be comparable within a tier.

All casinos have a mix of customers, all casinos compete. Not very many would think that the Venetian competes directly with Terribles, but in general I think the major players should have revenue figures that more or less move in sync.

If this is not happening, I would suggest accounting "footnotes" be consulted. If the Venetian has turned the corner, so too should Wynn. Harrahs and MGM should be comparable revenue figures. I did not say identical. Numbers of casinos vary, tiers vary, player's whims vary, Baccarat Whales vary... but in general I would expect that there is indeed something called "Vegas Revenue" and that if one-half of the monopoly prospers, the other half should prosper also.

I don't believe the LV gaming problem has even come close to seeing the bottom yet. And places like Cosmopolitan do not help.

Ignoring debt, are there many single casinos not in the black? aka, is Luxor making money or are they just losing money and it would be better to shut down. Loans still need to be paid if they shut down, so this would just mean losing less per month.

Quote: pacomartin

Wynn will report 3rd quarter on this Tuesday. Naturally the big news will all be in Asia, but hopefully Wynn Las Vegas will at least have bottomed out.

If Wynn Resorts' recent NASDAQ activity is any indicator, tomorrow's report will be very postive. The stock price jumped from $104 to $108 on October 28, and has continued to hold steady, peaking at $110 today. Either someone knows something, or there are some very positive thinkers out there.

Here's a prediction for ya: the casinos, acting collusively, will make some major casino game significantly worse in some way: maybe 11 will be a push on the comeout, or there will be a third zero on the roulette wheel, or the dealer won't lose if she makes 22. Whatever change does happen will be rapidly implemented, as if by magic, at just about every Strip casino simultaneously.

And the slimeball casino corporations will continue to lose money like a concentration camp inmate loses weight. Bankruptices will be declared. It will all be blamed on the economy (not, for example, on ludicrously incompetent management).

Quote: Ayecarumba

If Wynn Resorts' recent NASDAQ activity is any indicator, tomorrow's report will be very postive. The stock price jumped from $104 to $108 on October 28, and has continued to hold steady, peaking at $110 today. Either someone knows something, or there are some very positive thinkers out there.

I view any jump in the market as more reflective of the fact that there's a lot of money out there all dressed up with no place to go, now that corporate debt is so risky, government debt pays virtually nothing, and only a crazy person would buy real estate.

This is not to say that you couldn't make money by taking advantage of that. I would just make sure I was prepared to pull the ripcord at any time.

Quote: mkl654321

the dealer won't lose if she makes 22

Just FYI, this rule is already part of at least two different blackjack variants.

Quote: mkl654321

Here's a prediction for ya: the casinos, acting collusively, will make some major casino game significantly worse in some way: .

Nope. There are way too many casinos in the country now, they would ALL have to change and thats not gonna happen. If Vegas changes a game, nobody will play it, they'll just wait till they get home. If anything, Vegas will loosen up a game to get people to come and play it.

Quote: EvenBob

Nope. There are way too many casinos in the country now, they would ALL have to change and thats not gonna happen. If Vegas changes a game, nobody will play it, they'll just wait till they get home. If anything, Vegas will loosen up a game to get people to come and play it.

I take EvenBob's side in that prediction.

Quote: MathExtremist

Just FYI, this rule is already part of at least two different blackjack variants.

I know. And both 6:5 and 1:1 on blackjacks were part of silly carny variations of BJ long before they became commonplace. The prevailing wisdom was, "What sane person would put up with getting underpaid on a blackjack?" And you know the rest of the story....

Quote: EvenBob

Nope. There are way too many casinos in the country now, they would ALL have to change and thats not gonna happen. If Vegas changes a game, nobody will play it, they'll just wait till they get home. If anything, Vegas will loosen up a game to get people to come and play it.

I wish that were true. If it was, 6:5 blackjack tables would be empty. The video poker in Vegas wouldn't stink, while the VP in Reno is excellent. There wouldn't be $25 minimum crap tables every night on the Strip. The thing is, Vegas markets itself as something unique, and a lot of people buy into that. In other words, you may be getting raped, but you're getting raped in VEGAS, baby.

Quote: mkl654321

I wish that were true. If it was, 6:5 blackjack tables would be empty.
.

Are there other BJ games besides 6/5 available in Vegas? Sure there are. Are you sure you want to stick with this example to make your point? Nobody offered 6/5 and got together with all the other casinos to say thats the only BJ game they would offer.

Quote: EvenBob

Are there other BJ games besides 6/5 available in Vegas. Sure there are. Are you sure you want to stick with this example to make your point?

Of course. But if that were a factor, the 6:5 games would be empty, and the others would be full. So yes, my example proves that many people play in Vegas simply because it's Vegas, without the (bad) odds offered being a factor.

Quote: mkl654321

Of course. But if that were a factor, the 6:5 games would be empty, and the others would be full. So yes, my example proves that many people play in Vegas simply because it's Vegas, without the (bad) odds offered being a factor.

It proves that some people are idiots and don't know any better. This is hardly an example of all the casinos banding together and changing a game, far from it. You can find all kinds of BJ in Vegas.

Quote: EvenBob

Nope. There are way too many casinos in the country now, they would ALL have to change and thats not gonna happen. If Vegas changes a game, nobody will play it, they'll just wait till they get home. If anything, Vegas will loosen up a game to get people to come and play it.

In some states, Colorado for one, the rules and payoffs for table games are set by law.

I'm surprised all the big players on the Strip (and most of northern Nevada) have stayed at 345x odds on craps through the recession. OTOH casinos in several other markets have bumped up their odds substantially in the past couple of years. I don't think there's a casino in the Chicago market that's less than 20x nowadays, and I undersand ALL the Indiana casinos around Chicago are at 100x.

Quote: 7outlineaway

I'm surprised all the big players on the Strip (and most of northern Nevada) have stayed at 345x odds on craps through the recession. OTOH casinos in several other markets have bumped up their odds substantially in the past couple of years. I don't think there's a casino in the Chicago market that's less than 20x nowadays, and I undersand ALL the Indiana casinos around Chicago are at 100x.

It does seem to be a conspiracy that not one strip casino has broken ranks. There is only one table at the Casino Royale with 100x odds for the entire strip. Yet the Stratosphere (inside the Vegas city limits), and many of the casinos around town and downtown offer higher odds.

Craps revenue on the strip is at $235 million per year right now, down from $319 million three years ago (a loss of $84 million or 26%).

It is not as disastrous as the blackjack decay from $1,079 million per year down to $710 million (a loss of $369 million or 34%).

My unproven theory is that the strip negotiated an agreement with the Gaming Commission for the 345 odds. If they raise the odds, the Commission will require that they keep more cash in the cage (which costs the casino interest). The other casinos around town do a much smaller craps business and they run very little risk by increasing their odds. The craps games in Clark County for casinos not on the strip bring in about $81 million per year. Otherwise I would think one of the strip casinos would break ranks.

The other unproven theory is that the corporations on the Strip have simply decided not to compete on House Advantage. They think that everyone would lose. You see very little advertising about slot machine payback or anything to do with rules. Advertising is normally based on room quality and amenities. Yet this kind of advertising is very common for off strip casinos. For instance the El Cortez casino downtown prominently features an ad that their slots are 30% looser than the Clark County average, and they back it up with an independent auditing agency.

I personally do not understand the allure of baccarat, since craps at even 345 odds has a significantly lower HA.

Quote: pacomartin

It does seem to be a conspiracy that not one strip casino has broken ranks. There is only one table at the Casino Royale with 100x odds for the entire strip. Yet the Stratosphere (inside the Vegas city limits), and many of the casinos around town and downtown offer higher odds.

Craps revenue on the strip is at $235 million per year right now, down from $319 million three years ago (a loss of $84 million or 26%).

It is not as disastrous as the blackjack decay from $1,079 million per year down to $710 million (a loss of $369 million or 34%).

My unproven theory is that the strip negotiated an agreement with the Gaming Commission for the 345 odds. If they raise the odds, the Commission will require that they keep more cash in the cage (which costs the casino interest). The other casinos around town do a much smaller craps business and they run very little risk by increasing their odds. The craps games in Clark County for casinos not on the strip bring in about $81 million per year. Otherwise I would think one of the strip casinos would break ranks.

The other unproven theory is that the corporations on the Strip have simply decided not to compete on House Advantage. They think that everyone would lose. You see very little advertising about slot machine payback or anything to do with rules. Advertising is normally based on room quality and amenities. Yet this kind of advertising is very common for off strip casinos. For instance the El Cortez casino downtown prominently features an ad that their slots are 30% looser than the Clark County average, and they back it up with an independent auditing agency.

Interesting opinions. On the 3-4-5 odds, I think that's probably collusion on the strip more than anything. A crap table is a crap table, and the only difference you'll see in the main strip casinos is a variation in the field bet pay offs and the horn bets. For example, how much extra cash would you need to keep in the cage for 10x, or 5x across the board? The 21 action on the strip exceeds the crap action three to one while the bacarrat action is about four to one. I just can't see it being a big factor.

I'm with you on the other theory. But there are only four corporations really on the strip who are competing (Harrah's, MGM, Sands, Wynn), and none of them really stand out to add substantial value to the player experience. Harrah's comp system is vastly different than anyone else's but when you walk into the casino, the games are all pretty much the same, with a few variants here and there.

Three card did seem to change all at once from 1-4-6 to 1-4-5, and 6:5 blackjack is around, but only to offer a low limit game to the young folk who don't know any better.
I personally do not understand the allure of baccarat, since craps at even 345 odds has a significantly lower HA.