Poll

7 votes (36.84%)
12 votes (63.15%)

19 members have voted

MathExtremist
MathExtremist
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September 8th, 2010 at 12:48:38 PM permalink
Reposted from the other forum (that thread is dead now...)

"Hard Pass"

The Hard Pass bet is a craps side bet made on the shooter's come-out roll. The bet wins if the shooter:
(a) comes out on a hardway point number (hard 4, 6, 8, or 10) and
(b) the shooter makes the point with the hardway number.

If the shooter doesn't come out on one of the four hard point numbers, the bet loses. If the shooter establishes a point with a hardway but either 7s out or makes the point with an easy number, the bet loses.

The chances to win this bet are exactly 1 in 89.1.
When it wins, it pays 80-to-1 for a 9.09% house edge (same as the hard 6/8).
Alternately, it can pay 85-to-1 for a 3.48% house edge.

The dealer procedure is easy - the bet is booked by the stick in a dedicated area of the prop box. The bets go up before the come-out roll, so when the stick is hawking Yo or Horn bets, they'll hawk this one too. If the shooter doesn't roll one of the four hard points, the bet comes down immediately. That means if the bet is still there after the come-out, the puck indicates which hard point needs to be hit to win.

Before giving any additional details or adding my commentary, what do you think? Would you play it?
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
MathExtremist
MathExtremist
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September 8th, 2010 at 12:55:09 PM permalink
Quote: DJTeddyBear

Are you saying that it plays if the shooter's come out roll is ANY hard point? And that it wins if that point is hit hardway?



Yes, that's exactly it. The opening roll establishes the hard point (if one is rolled), and the shooter has to make that hard point in order to win.

Quote:

Care to show your math? I've come up with a 1 in 63 chance of winning:

1 / ( ( 4 / 36 ) * ( 1 / 7 ) ) = 63



4/36 is correct for the chances of establishing a hard point, but the next term isn't right.
if you rolled a 6 or 8, the chance of rolling the hardway before the easy way or the 7 is 1/11. If the hard point is 4 or 10, it's 1/9. So:

1/18 * 1/11 + 1/18 * 1/9 =
1/18 * 9/99 + 1/18 * 11/99 =
1/18 * 20/99 =
1/9 * 10/99 = 10/891 = 1/89.1
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
DJTeddyBear
DJTeddyBear
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September 8th, 2010 at 1:54:42 PM permalink
Oh. Duh.

But it looks like you're adding the chance of achieving the hard 6/8 to the chance of achieving the hard 4/10....

I gotta look at the algebra for a while....
I invented a few casino games. Info: http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ 覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧 Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
MathExtremist
MathExtremist
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September 8th, 2010 at 1:59:39 PM permalink
You could break it down further, 1/36 for each, but since the chances of making the point are the same I just combined them into 2/36 (or 1/18).
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
Wizard
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Wizard
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September 8th, 2010 at 2:38:07 PM permalink
Not bad, but I don't think it would get much play. The purpose is too similar to the existing hard way bets. In my opinion, a side bet in craps should have the possibility of paying something really big, like the Fire Bet.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
TIMSPEED
TIMSPEED
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September 8th, 2010 at 2:47:37 PM permalink
To me, it sounds no different than say..
Working a Hard 6 on the come out, comes out on a Hard 6, and parlaying it, and it hitting again when he makes the point.
$1 turns into $10 total, which turns into $100 total.
Gambling calls to me...like this ~> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Nap37mNSmQ
Paigowdan
Paigowdan
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September 8th, 2010 at 2:52:09 PM permalink
ME,

No! This WAY is different than trying to work and track down a cumbersome combination of hardways bets..this is really elegant! Nobody works this all out on a live game, to do this during a busy crap game...but this one bet does it all. You can also set up bets to simulate the FIRE bet (by parlaying pass line and odds bets in a peticular way), but that bets does it automatically for you, hence its great value and worth. Same here.

That's a GREAT f*cking side bet idea for craps. BRILLIANT ! M.E. ! I didn't know that sharp game designers were mixed in with pedestrian gamblers here at this site...- FIRE BET MY ASS! - and that bet took off making some serious money. [The bust-up bet discussion must have gotten your juices flowing...] but you're making it too hard for the shooter to nail BOTH a point hardways and to RE-NAIL the SAME point hardways. What are you going to pay on a win? 500:1?

[Disclaimer - because it is a great basic idea: I assume you have a provisional patent on this idea, because you have now publicly disclosed it here. I do assume that you do - and will recommend to you some gaming distribution ideas for it. contact me throught the sites messaging..]

I would make the bet as follows:

1. Pays on the hardway come-out point, with a pushing "no action" on a come-out natural such as 7, an 11, or a crap number - so that it is automatically still up, like a World bet when a 7 is thrown, a great crap-playing convenience! It can pay 8:1 as a one-roll bet, - but crap players would have to re-load the bet on anything but a hard point establishing, making it annoying for your future customers. So...best design...ONLY A COME-OUT POINT NUMBER THAT GETS ESTABLISHED (4,5,6,8,9,or 10) DECIDES a WIN OR LOSE - with a hardways 4,6,8,10 winning 3 for 1 and still up (or really 2:1 with one unit still an alive bet for hitting the point hardways) and an easy point establishment a bet loss. Okay!

2. Because it pays "3 for 1" and still up on establishing a hardways point, the players are still up to hit the point hardways automatically if they make it - KEEPING THEM IN THE GAME ON YOUR NEW BET - where it would pay 5:1 on the even point made hardways (4,6,8, or 10), or losing on a seven out or the point hitting easy.

Shit, MathExtremist, that's a really goooood new fucking BET! I hope to Christ you have a provisional patent on it, now that you've puclicly disclosed it, because many gaming execs troll this site, expecially because it's Mike Shackleford's site.
Beware of all enterprises that require new clothes - Henry David Thoreau. Like Dealers' uniforms - Dan.
DJTeddyBear
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September 8th, 2010 at 2:53:13 PM permalink
I'm gonna ignore the math for a moment, and just assume you're right.

The Wiz make a valid point: There's nothing unique here.

The first part of the bet is that the next roll is a hard point, or loses. This is equal to hopping the 4 hard numbers for 25% of the bet. The second part is like taking the proceeds of the hop and parlaying it on the hard number.

While it's an interesting idea, there's nothing unique about it. Any player who wishes to achieve similar results (or maybe better results) can simply hop and parlay.

Hmmm.... Now THERE'S some math I can wrap my head around - except I have to leave now for my in-laws for dinner....
I invented a few casino games. Info: http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ 覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧 Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
Wizard
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September 8th, 2010 at 3:07:35 PM permalink
Paigowdan and I obviously disagree about the merits of the bet, but I do agree that if you should at least get a provisional patent on it if you wish to pursue selling it. I'm no lawyer, but if you didn't already do so, you may wish to somehow prove you posted the idea here and on what date. That could be used to invalidate a patent, should someone else see it here and try to steal it. If you're serious about selling it, I would recommend a full blown patent, but that debate has already been done. You might also consider just selling the idea to Paigowdown, since he likes it so much, and he is in the new casino games business.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
Paigowdan
Paigowdan
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September 8th, 2010 at 3:25:36 PM permalink
Hold on...

I disagree with Mike...There is something really unique and valuable here going on...and that is easy and convenient. Crap players could emulate the hardways bet by making hardways hop bets all the time on EVERY ROLL until THAT bet hits but they don't. And it would KILL crap game operations if it were done that way, because that does NOT "elegantize" the game the way a single hard-8 bet does. Same here!

They can also emulate the FIRE bet through complex ways that they have not thought of doing also - and so don't do. Math-E had, though.

So...This is really a completely novel crap game bet - in that it handles an entire betting strategy with in a single and easy bet.

The bet DOES have great worth, and is patentable, and is marketable, and is commercially viable, and makes the GAME BETTER AND EASIER.

Keep in mind that the HORN bet also is a collection of the 2,3,11, and 12, and the World bet is a horn bet plus a 7 bet. Crap players bet them and use them because it helps organize their favorite game for them - as does the fire bet.

It gives the crap players brand-new and easy options, it speeds up the game, and makes players bet more with the chance to win more it it works out for them - which is what a good side bet is supposed to do.

There's a lot that's both unique and elegant going on here, and if it sells, it'll prove some experts wrong. Because this is what players USE, and this is what casinos USE, so it may be what SELLS and makes a name for itself in gaming.

Math Extremeist - very sharp - ignore the nay sayers.

I was told two things about Comission-free EZ Pai Gow Poker:
1. That it is nothing unique, and won't see casino action, and they were WRONG!
2. If Anyone could find a clean way to get rid of the commission on both Pai Gow and Baccarat - they'll re-define those games and make some serious money. THEY were right.

A lot of game designers come to me with their "inventions" as a successful game inventor, and MOST of the time I say, "Sorry, man, I think your game idea really sucks ass, nice guy that you are, better for you to get a day time job and let your wife pay the bills, let's get real over here." When they try to pitch it to Shufflemaster, Galaxy, DEQ, Gaming Network, they get told exactly the same thing. If I say otherwise, it's because there's real merit and potential that should at least be followed up on.

So sometimes, I SEE a real sharp game idea that I MYSELF wished that I had come up with, and both Bust-up BJ and your "point-number hardways parlay" fall into that category - meaning that it "should" make it, if you did your patent work right, did your correct layout artwork, did your math work with Mike or someone else, and contacted enough industry guys to get you a showing. I've seen a LOT of stuff that wasn't worth a thing. Your side bet does for the hardways bettor what the FIRE bet does for the pass line bettor who wants an easy and convienient bet.

If you do the math, the patent, and the marketing right, it will sell. IMHO.

And Mike is right about this: if the game DOES HAVE PROMISE, THEN GET A FULL UTILITY ON IT. The provisional allows you to market the game to see if it has...and if it does, you do the patent conversion.
Beware of all enterprises that require new clothes - Henry David Thoreau. Like Dealers' uniforms - Dan.

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