ShineyShine
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December 22nd, 2014 at 9:03:19 PM permalink
Half Time - Full Time™ Baccarat


A new Baccarat side bet (patent pending).

Like betting on a soccer match, players can bet on the half time - full time result in a round of Baccarat.

Half time will be considered as the initial four cards that are dealt.

Full time will be considered as the end result of the round if either the Bank or Player, or both, have drawn a third card.

Players must correctly predict both the half time and full time result to win... e.g Bank to be winning at half time, then Player to win at full time. There are nine possible combinations to bet on, as detailed below.

Bets must be placed before any cards are dealt.

Bets will lose on naturals, or when there is no third card dealt to either Bank or Player.



Pay table

Half - Time Full - Time Pays
Bank Bank 4-1
Player Player 4-1
Player Bank 10-1
Bank Player 11-1
Player Tie 35-1
Tie Player 35-1
Tie Bank 35-1
Bank Tie 40-1
Tie Tie 60-1
21Flip
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December 22nd, 2014 at 10:20:14 PM permalink
It's a clever idea, I admit.

I have two immediate critiques that come to mind.

First, it requires NINE (think about it - nine!) betting spots for EACH player - in addition to the three spots already in play. That layout is going to be very "busy". And that also creates game protection issues.

Secondly, it is a pure uninformed decision. Now, you can sometimes get away with an uninformed decision bet, but you have to create the illusion of information. Roulette is a prime example - before the tally board, roulette was a dead game. It was rarely played, and the ones who did kept their own "pattern cards".

Your bet has NINE independent outcomes, and no pattern for a player to follow to decide which to bet.

Unless you can create a "tally board" showing some "pattern" from the previous events, I fear your idea will be challenged in getting traction.
ShineyShine
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December 22nd, 2014 at 10:37:59 PM permalink
Quote: 21Flip

It's a clever idea, I admit.

I have two immediate critiques that come to mind.

First, it requires NINE (think about it - nine!) betting spots for EACH player - in addition to the three spots already in play. That layout is going to be very "busy". And that also creates game protection issues.

Secondly, it is a pure uninformed decision. Now, you can sometimes get away with an uninformed decision bet, but you have to create the illusion of information. Roulette is a prime example - before the tally board, roulette was a dead game. It was rarely played, and the ones who did kept their own "pattern cards".

Your bet has NINE independent outcomes, and no pattern for a player to follow to decide which to bet.

Unless you can create a "tally board" showing some "pattern" from the previous events, I fear your idea will be challenged in getting traction.



Hi Flip, thanks for the feedback.

I agree, getting it on the layout is going to be a challenge. I've thought about it a lot, and have sketched numerous layouts on felts with some chalk. It's probably not going to be nine bets for each player, but nine betting spots with space for 3 or 4 bets on each, running horizontally across the layout. I'll be giving my amateur layout design efforts to a professional, and see what they can do with it.

On your second point, that may well be the case, only time will tell on that once (IF!) it ever gets into a casino. I'm hoping it captures the imagination of sports bettors, or any players looking for higher payouts. As i said, who knows, time will tell.
21Flip
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December 22nd, 2014 at 10:53:55 PM permalink
I would like to make a suggestion, if I may: your core idea is excellent - focus on simplifying the concept?

For example, what if there was one bet, that had a paytable based on the initial draw/final hand concept? The odds would have to be lower, but it would be HUGELY more simple.

Secondly, I have a quick thought for you: Can you give an example of a long-term successful game/sidebet that is purely uninformed decision? Dragon gets close, but it is mostly played as a hedge.
ShineyShine
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December 22nd, 2014 at 11:10:01 PM permalink
Quote: 21Flip

I would like to make a suggestion, if I may: your core idea is excellent - focus on simplifying the concept?

For example, what if there was one bet, that had a paytable based on the initial draw/final hand concept? The odds would have to be lower, but it would be HUGELY more simple.

Secondly, I have a quick thought for you: Can you give an example of a long-term successful game/sidebet that is purely uninformed decision? Dragon gets close, but it is mostly played as a hedge.



Good questions, and good food for thought.

Off the top off my head, i could just reduce the amount of bets available to simplify it. So instead of all nine combinations, just a few of them. e.g Bank-Bank and Player-Player, pays 4-1. But i want it to mirror the soccer bet, and those odds are not that exciting for a side bet imo. Maybe that could be version 2.0 if this one doesn't work out.

I guess this could also be played as a hedge...if someone is betting big on Bank, but decides to hedge on Bank-Player.

In my absolute ideal dream world, a whole new pattern system mythology would evolve around this side bet, similar to the main game, but i admit that's a pipe dream.
DJTeddyBear
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December 23rd, 2014 at 6:31:17 AM permalink
Nine betting spots is bad enough, but the rules already suggest two more bets: Natural and no third card.

Interesting idea in concept, but I think terrible on felt. Maybe the answer is online casinos?
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Wizard
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December 23rd, 2014 at 6:54:52 AM permalink
I give the game all due credit for simplicity, which is usually where I fault them. However, it loses points for adding eight betting spots to the layout per player, which will clutter up the felt. It will also slow down the game as the dealer has to score each hand twice.

Better than average idea but in this business you need at least a 9 on the 0 to 10 scale to have any hope.
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RonC
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December 23rd, 2014 at 7:33:02 AM permalink
Everyone is talking about the extra spots on the felt and the extra time for the dealer scoring...could this be an idea that would fair better in the online/video world? I'm thinking you only need to "see" one "betting area" in either one of those so the number of options on the table is not as distracting. The calculations being automated would negate the extra time per hand issue.
miplet
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December 23rd, 2014 at 8:22:42 AM permalink
HalfFull TimePaysCombinationsProbabilityReturn
No Third Card18937356114585600.378868491
BB48875470567956480.177566294-0.112168531
PP48497510421872640.170004669-0.149976657
PB104130077052477440.082628011-0.091091884
BP113909190169436160.078208857-0.061493714
PT351238260393205760.024773144-0.108166823
TP351323063259996160.026469745-0.047089193
TB351341559069327360.026839779-0.033767943
BT401081187130163200.021630672-0.113142453
TT60650308576012800.013010339-0.206369302
Total49983982755033601
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21Flip
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December 23rd, 2014 at 8:36:35 AM permalink
Quote: miplet

HalfFull TimePaysCombinationsProbabilityReturn
No Third Card18937356114585600.378868491
BB48875470567956480.177566294-0.112168531
PP48497510421872640.170004669-0.149976657
PB104130077052477440.082628011-0.091091884
BP113909190169436160.078208857-0.061493714
PT351238260393205760.024773144-0.108166823
TP351323063259996160.026469745-0.047089193
TB351341559069327360.026839779-0.033767943
BT401081187130163200.021630672-0.113142453
TT60650308576012800.013010339-0.206369302
Total49983982755033601



How do you generate this?
miplet
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December 23rd, 2014 at 8:50:31 AM permalink
Quote: 21Flip

How do you generate this?


In a spread sheet. bachalf.xlsb
This includes lots of baccarat side bets. It's at the bottom.
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21Flip
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December 23rd, 2014 at 9:01:42 AM permalink
Quote: miplet

In a spread sheet. bachalf.xlsb
This includes lots of baccarat side bets. It's at the bottom.



Heh. Well, you did answer my question.

I guess I should be more specific: I would like to learn how to calculate all the possible outcomes of a game. However, I don't have the knowledge to do so. What method do you use to do so? Is there software out there that can calculate different possibilities of card combination?
ShineyShine
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December 23rd, 2014 at 9:08:11 AM permalink
Quote: 21Flip

Quote: miplet

In a spread sheet. bachalf.xlsb
This includes lots of baccarat side bets. It's at the bottom.



Heh. Well, you did answer my question.

I guess I should be more specific: I would like to learn how to calculate all the possible outcomes of a game. However, I don't have the knowledge to do so. What method do you use to do so? Is there software out there that can calculate different possibilities of card combination?



Try this...
Last edited by: unnamed administrator on Aug 8, 2024
ShineyShine
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December 23rd, 2014 at 9:09:07 AM permalink
Quote: miplet

HalfFull TimePaysCombinationsProbabilityReturn
No Third Card18937356114585600.378868491
BB48875470567956480.177566294-0.112168531
PP48497510421872640.170004669-0.149976657
PB104130077052477440.082628011-0.091091884
BP113909190169436160.078208857-0.061493714
PT351238260393205760.024773144-0.108166823
TP351323063259996160.026469745-0.047089193
TB351341559069327360.026839779-0.033767943
BT401081187130163200.021630672-0.113142453
TT60650308576012800.013010339-0.206369302
Total49983982755033601



Your figures are spot on.
ThatDonGuy
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December 23rd, 2014 at 9:30:51 AM permalink
Quote: 21Flip

I guess I should be more specific: I would like to learn how to calculate all the possible outcomes of a game. However, I don't have the knowledge to do so. What method do you use to do so? Is there software out there that can calculate different possibilities of card combination?


If you want to take specific deck sizes into account, then the only way I know of is the way I do it - with a computer program. My current "language of choice" is C# - probably because (a) you can write Windows apps with it, and (b) there's a free version available (Microsoft Visual C# Express).

There's no existing software that can handle every game as you have to be able to program the rules of the game into it.
RS
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December 23rd, 2014 at 10:13:33 AM permalink
Half time / full time seems like a very football or sportsy name for a side bet. Especially in a very Asian game, where I suspect* most players aren't into sports.

To make it more simple, it could just be ONE spot to bet, and the player only wins on the BP, PB, & TT combinations (or maybe include TP & TB, or BT & PT).
thecesspit
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December 23rd, 2014 at 3:26:16 PM permalink
Quote: RS

Half time / full time seems like a very football or sportsy name for a side bet. Especially in a very Asian game, where I suspect* most players aren't into sports.

To make it more simple, it could just be ONE spot to bet, and the player only wins on the BP, PB, & TT combinations (or maybe include TP & TB, or BT & PT).



Asian players are big soccer bettors, I am led to believe, based on what I have seen about Asian Handicaps : http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asian_handicap
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ShineyShine
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December 23rd, 2014 at 5:05:42 PM permalink
Quote: thecesspit

Asian players are big soccer bettors, I am led to believe, based on what I have seen about Asian Handicaps : http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asian_handicap



Yeah, in my experience Asians are heavily into soccer and sports betting.

I imagine it won't be that recognisable to U.S players, but half time - full time betting is pretty popular and common outside the U.S. We tried out a few names, and i agree it doesn't roll off the tongue too well, but we wanted the theme of the bet to be instantly recognisable from the name.

Thanks for the feedback everyone.
21Flip
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December 23rd, 2014 at 7:28:05 PM permalink
Quote: ShineyShine

Yeah, in my experience Asians are heavily into soccer and sports betting.

I imagine it won't be that recognisable to U.S players, but half time - full time betting is pretty popular and common outside the U.S. We tried out a few names, and i agree it doesn't roll off the tongue too well, but we wanted the theme of the bet to be instantly recognisable from the name.

Thanks for the feedback everyone.




My thoughts for a name would be "soccer field positions" related, or soccer strategy related. What's it called when a game is tied at the end, and they take turns kicking it at each other? A shootout?

Something like: "Midfield and Goal", or "Bacc Socc", or even "Soccer-rat".

There is something to the element of halfway, then all the way.

I just don't know enough soccer lingo to be effective in helping you.
ShineyShine
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December 23rd, 2014 at 7:42:54 PM permalink
Quote: 21Flip

My thoughts for a name would be "soccer field positions" related, or soccer strategy related. What's it called when a game is tied at the end, and they take turns kicking it at each other? A shootout?

Something like: "Midfield and Goal", or "Bacc Socc", or even "Soccer-rat".

There is something to the element of halfway, then all the way.

I just don't know enough soccer lingo to be effective in helping you.



No probs, thanks for the suggestions anyway.

A penalty shootout is at the end of the game when it's a draw, in a cup competition. 'Shootout' or 'Shootout Baccarat' isn't bad, but i'm happy enough with the existing name for now.
ShineyShine
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December 23rd, 2014 at 8:19:52 PM permalink
Regarding the crowded layout issues, does anyone have, or know where i can find, images or photos of the UR Way Egalite side bet layout? This has 10 separate bets, so i'd be interested to see what they did with it from a layout design perspective.
ShineyShine
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February 26th, 2015 at 5:10:35 PM permalink
ShineyShine
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February 26th, 2015 at 5:14:01 PM permalink
Quote: ShineyShine

http://i.imgur.com/v5zy45c.png[/img]



Ok...that obviously didn't work. I was trying to upload an image of the prototype layout we've had done. I thought i'd followed all the steps correctly, apparently not. Could use some help from the Mods if possible.
ShineyShine
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February 26th, 2015 at 5:27:13 PM permalink
beachbumbabs
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February 26th, 2015 at 7:34:28 PM permalink
Quote: ShineyShine

Quote: ShineyShine

http://i.imgur.com/v5zy45c.png[/img]



Ok...that obviously didn't work. I was trying to upload an image of the prototype layout we've had done. I thought i'd followed all the steps correctly, apparently not. Could use some help from the Mods if possible.



You just had some extra code in there. All the image info goes into the brackets, youtube posts work the same way.

bracket IMG=(your link) close bracket
bracket youtube=(your link) close bracket

Edit: I see you figured it out. Good job!
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
ShineyShine
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February 26th, 2015 at 7:43:58 PM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs

Quote: ShineyShine

Quote: ShineyShine

http://i.imgur.com/v5zy45c.png[/img]



Ok...that obviously didn't work. I was trying to upload an image of the prototype layout we've had done. I thought i'd followed all the steps correctly, apparently not. Could use some help from the Mods if possible.



You just had some extra code in there. All the image info goes into the brackets, youtube posts work the same way.

bracket IMG=(your link) close bracket
bracket youtube=(your link) close bracket

Edit: I see you figured it out. Good job!



Yeah managed to figure it out in the end, cheers anyway.

A few people mentioned some issues with the layout earlier in the thread, so i thought i'd put this up to see what they think. It's not the finished article, just an initial prototype.
ShineyShine
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May 7th, 2015 at 8:29:45 AM permalink
We'll be exhibiting this game at the Grosvenor New Games Showcase tonight in Coventry. If any WoV members are going, feel free to drop by our table and say hello.
charliepatrick
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May 14th, 2015 at 3:52:42 PM permalink
Good to see you - I've stumbled across this thread. fwiw The layout of the semi-circle (dealer dealt) Punto Banco tables which take Tie Bets for specific totals tend to have two sets of 0 thru 9 ties, one for each half of the table. I couldn't find a clear picture but this one shows the idea.

Typically players hand their bets for the dealer to place - so I guess there's room for your bet in the same way (or even both!).
ShineyShine
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May 15th, 2015 at 9:16:47 AM permalink
Quote: charliepatrick

Good to see you - I've stumbled across this thread. fwiw The layout of the semi-circle (dealer dealt) Punto Banco tables which take Tie Bets for specific totals tend to have two sets of 0 thru 9 ties, one for each half of the table. I couldn't find a clear picture but this one shows the idea.

Typically players hand their bets for the dealer to place - so I guess there's room for your bet in the same way (or even both!).



Thanks charliepatrick... We used the Ur Way Egalite layout as a guide when designing our layout, so this could definitely be an option for us in the future.
teliot
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May 15th, 2015 at 9:36:13 AM permalink
Have you considered advantage play against this bet yet?
Climate Casino: https://climatecasino.net/climate-casino/
ShineyShine
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May 15th, 2015 at 9:57:05 AM permalink
Quote: teliot

Have you considered advantage play against this bet yet?



We have, Charles Mousseau did a full vulnerability analysis on it.
teliot
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May 15th, 2015 at 11:31:39 AM permalink
Quote: ShineyShine

We have, Charles Mousseau did a full vulnerability analysis on it.

Which bet did he report as most vulnerable? I'll redo that one for you gratis.
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ShineyShine
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May 15th, 2015 at 1:00:37 PM permalink
Quote: teliot

Which bet did he report as most vulnerable? I'll redo that one for you gratis.



The Tie-Tie bet. We had to reduce the payout from 70-1 to 60-1.

That would be great if you did another analysis, thanks very much.
charliepatrick
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May 15th, 2015 at 6:20:30 PM permalink
It looks as if Tens, Nines and Eights affect the last two bets. This seems reasonable since if the dealer and player start with 4 or 5 and the player draws a ten it remains a draw, or other small totals where they both draw tens. Look at the huge change it makes to the House Edge when you just remove one nine from an eight-deck shoe. A similar effect happens when you add one ten (HE=20.154%). I can guess using some counting system, based on this might yield results, but there's a large House Edge to overcome.
No cards removed
HalfFullOddsPermsReturnHE
BB488754705679564888.783 147%11.217%
PP484975104218726485.002 334%14.998%
PB1041300770524774490.890 812%9.109%
BP1139091901694361693.850 629%6.149%
PT3512382603932057689.183 318%10.817%
TP3513230632599961695.291 081%4.709%
TB3513415590693273696.623 206%3.377%
BT4010811871301632088.685 755%11.314%
TT606503085760128079.363 070%20.637%
Lose1893735611458560
Total4998398275503360

One Nine removed
HalfFullOddsPermsReturnHE
BB487705942170931289.017 960%10.982%
PP483982961334451285.239 286%14.761%
PB1040760214515379291.013 908%8.986%
BP1138573300805222493.960 791%6.039%
PT3512229745725337689.371 396%10.629%
TP3513077945116928095.569 789%4.430%
TB3513240151827993696.755 148%3.245%
BT4010693678599014488.999 917%11.000%
TT606440632066726479.751 148%20.249%
Lose1859260271063760
Total4926305992683600

Effect of removing one card
None RemovedTen Removed1 Removed2 Removed3 Removed4 Removed5 Removed6 Removed7 Removed8 Removed9 Removed
17.757%17.733%17.737%17.745%17.752%17.757%17.760%17.768%17.767%17.815%17.804%
17.000%16.976%16.979%16.986%16.992%16.996%17.008%17.017%17.014%17.061%17.048%
8.263%8.274%8.271%8.266%8.260%8.255%8.244%8.244%8.246%8.261%8.274%
7.821%7.831%7.831%7.825%7.817%7.809%7.806%7.806%7.807%7.817%7.830%
2.477%2.480%2.475%2.473%2.473%2.474%2.473%2.474%2.476%2.483%2.483%
2.647%2.644%2.642%2.642%2.642%2.645%2.646%2.654%2.654%2.655%2.655%
2.684%2.681%2.683%2.683%2.682%2.685%2.683%2.689%2.689%2.687%2.688%
2.163%2.167%2.157%2.155%2.156%2.159%2.160%2.162%2.161%2.172%2.171%
1.301%1.293%1.304%1.304%1.304%1.300%1.300%1.307%1.307%1.308%1.307%

Adding One Nine
HalfFullOddsPermsReturnHE
BB489813046280140888.549 138%11.451%
PP485976217647872084.766 304%15.234%
PB1041846334134220890.766 379%9.234%
BP1139615359045580893.738 878%6.261%
PT3512536774936371288.994 515%11.005%
TP3513384478522777695.012 089%4.988%
TB3513592639083264096.489 753%3.510%
BT4010930921392742488.372 174%11.628%
TT606566216555750478.980 512%21.019%
Lose1928747717406720
Total5071367593393920
teliot
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May 15th, 2015 at 6:26:00 PM permalink
Quote: charliepatrick

It looks as if Tens, Nines and Eights affect the last two bets. This seems reasonable since if the dealer and player start with 4 or 5 and the player draws a ten it remains a draw, or other small totals where they both draw tens. Look at the huge change it makes to the House Edge when you just remove one nine from an eight-deck shoe. A similar effect happens when you add one ten (HE=20.154%). I can guess using some counting system, based on this might yield results, but there's a large House Edge to overcome.


Since the bet loses on a natural, it follows that removing 8's and 9's is highly favorable to the player. I would guess that T/P is the most vulnerable. Based on your work, you might just want to consider a complete EOR analysis for T/P.

My computer is hard at work on analyzing hole-card play against UTH, or else I would do this.
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Ibeatyouraces
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May 15th, 2015 at 6:54:58 PM permalink
Quote: teliot

..My computer is hard at work on analyzing hole-card play against UTH, or else I would do this.


I already know the strategy 0 :-)
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
teliot
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May 15th, 2015 at 7:08:14 PM permalink
Quote: Ibeatyouraces

I already know the strategy 0 :-)

For the Tie/Player, use the following system:

A, 2, 3 = -2
4, 5, T, J, Q, K = -1
6, 7, 8, 9 = +3

This has betting correlation 0.990592

Then, with an 8 deck shoe, cut card at 14 cards, a simulation of 20M shoes gave:

Trigger true count = +6
Bet frequency = 14.00%
Average edge = 4.48%
Win (in units) per 100 hands = 0.63

Given that this is just one of 9 options on this side bet, it appears that a team approach might be fun for the APs.

These results are q&d, no guarantees.

[edit -- found bug, results above were fixed]
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Ibeatyouraces
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May 15th, 2015 at 7:17:05 PM permalink
Quote: teliot

For the Tie/Player, use the following system:

A, 2, 3 = -2
4, 5, T, J, Q, K = -1
6, 7, 8, 9 = +3

This has betting correlation 0.990592

Then, with an 8 deck shoe, cut card at 14 cards, a simulation of 20M shoes gave:

Bet frequency = 11.68%
Average edge = 5.30%
Win (in units) per 100 hands = 0.62

Given that this is just one of 9 options on this side bet, it appears that a team approach might be fun for the APs.


I meant for UTH.
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teliot
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May 15th, 2015 at 7:23:49 PM permalink
Quote: Ibeatyouraces

I meant for UTH.

For UTH, I have Grosjean's strategies in CAA and his edges for Dealer+Flop and Dealer+River he notes there (to 2 decimal place accuracy).

I am sure you know that in CAA, Grosjean doesn't give the edge for Dealer H/C only (my computer is about 1/2 way through this computation). He only gives the strategy for this. Through a private communication I was told it is in the 12% range -- I'm curious to find the exact answer. Moreover, Grosjean's preflop (Check, 3x, 4x) strategy is not quite right. So, I am going to post all this pretty soon -- Edge and perfect preflop strategy, along with a few fascinating statistics.

Then, I'm going to do all the other things as time goes on ... it's a huge game to analyze, and every little part of it takes another 5 days. This is where access to "cloud computing" would come in handy -- Stephen How gets it done in 2 hours on a couple hundred cores. I only have 8 cores available.

In CAA there is no indication that Grosjean actually did complete computations for UTH (at least, his exposition isn't in its usual crisp fashion). Aside from his "known card" edges, everything else looks simulated.
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Ibeatyouraces
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May 15th, 2015 at 7:28:58 PM permalink
Quote: teliot

For UTH, I have Grosjean's strategies in CAA and his edges for Dealer+Flop and Dealer+River he notes there (to 2 decimal place accuracy).

I am sure you know that in CAA, Grosjean doesn't give the edge for Dealer H/C only (my computer is about 1/2 way through this computation). He only gives the strategy for this. Moreover, his preflop (Check, 3x, 4x) strategy is not quite right. So, I am going to post all this pretty soon -- Edge and perfect preflop strategy, along with a few fascinating statistics.

Then, I'm going to do all the other things as time goes on ... it's a huge game to analyze, and every little part of it takes another 5 days. This is where access to "cloud computing" would come in handy -- Stephen How gets it done in 2 hours on a couple hundred cores. I only have 8 cores available.

In CAA there is no indication that Grosjean actually did complete computations for UTH (at least, his exposition isn't in its usual crisp fashion). Aside from his "known card" edges, everything else looks simulated.


It will definitely be interesting to compare. Very tough to find a "good" UTH game.
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beachbumbabs
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May 15th, 2015 at 10:22:17 PM permalink
Quote: teliot

For UTH, I have Grosjean's strategies in CAA and his edges for Dealer+Flop and Dealer+River he notes there (to 2 decimal place accuracy).

I am sure you know that in CAA, Grosjean doesn't give the edge for Dealer H/C only (my computer is about 1/2 way through this computation). He only gives the strategy for this. Through a private communication I was told it is in the 12% range -- I'm curious to find the exact answer. Moreover, Grosjean's preflop (Check, 3x, 4x) strategy is not quite right. So, I am going to post all this pretty soon -- Edge and perfect preflop strategy, along with a few fascinating statistics.

Then, I'm going to do all the other things as time goes on ... it's a huge game to analyze, and every little part of it takes another 5 days. This is where access to "cloud computing" would come in handy -- Stephen How gets it done in 2 hours on a couple hundred cores. I only have 8 cores available.

In CAA there is no indication that Grosjean actually did complete computations for UTH (at least, his exposition isn't in its usual crisp fashion). Aside from his "known card" edges, everything else looks simulated.



I'm really looking forward to reading any of this you decide to publish, whether you charge for it or post it on apheat. I'll be appending it to AAP.

I have a laptop I'm not using, circa 2009, Windows Vista. You want it to work with? Intel 2 Duo CPU T6500 @ 2.1GHz, 4GB RAM.
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ShineyShine
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May 15th, 2015 at 11:24:54 PM permalink
Thanks for all the work teliot and charliepatrick.

teliot; you're right, the Tie-Player bet is the most vulnerable, after we reduced the payout on the Tie-Tie bet.

We will be recommending the use of a separate cut card to reduce the games vulnerability, about 1.5 - 2 decks. I've never seen these used, does anyone know how the regular players react to them? Is it something they just accept, or does it alienate them?
charliepatrick
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May 16th, 2015 at 12:02:16 PM permalink
A quick run of 1m shoes and using the $ per 100 hands for a $100 bet in favourable situations measure
BetPenetrationHouse EdgeProfit
T P83%4.795%$33.12
T P95%4.740%$60.85
T B83%3.366%$16.58
teliot
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May 16th, 2015 at 12:28:03 PM permalink
Quote: charliepatrick

A quick run of 1m shoes and using the $ per 100 hands for a $100 bet in favourable situations measure

BetPenetrationHouse EdgeProfit
T P83%4.795%$33.12
T P95%4.740%$60.85
T B83%3.366%$16.58



Our results on T/P are fairly close. But, when you say 95% penetration, baccarat has a fixed cut card. Are you using a fixed cut card with normal burn card rules for baccarat? If not, can you clarify what 95% means?
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charliepatrick
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May 16th, 2015 at 12:59:12 PM permalink
Sorry I was out all today (Southampton beat Aston Villa) and quickly added a Punto Banco part to my Blackjack simulator. Thus I totally ignored any first card etc. rules and started with an 83.3333% value (I did change the number of decks to 8, but left the penetration asis). The program keeps a count of cards gone and total cards in the deck(s) so shuffles up at the end of a hand where the percentage has been reached. When looking at Blackjack I found the 83% number most interesting and thought 95% would be close to 15 cards from the end plus any taken off at the start. Obviously 1m shoes isn't enough but I'm still in the stone ages of using HTML scripting!
teliot
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May 16th, 2015 at 1:35:36 PM permalink
Quote: charliepatrick

Obviously 1m shoes isn't enough but I'm still in the stone ages of using HTML scripting!

1M shoes is about 7 seconds on my Ubuntu box, with the program written in C++.

HTML scripting? What do you mean? PHP?
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charliepatrick
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May 16th, 2015 at 1:54:21 PM permalink
It's when you put code into an HTML page or use a script. It takes just over 32s.
<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.01 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><! Parameters SEED=number>
<HEAD>
<META NAME="description" CONTENT="Punto Banco Simulation" />
<META NAME="keywords" CONTENT="Calculations">
<TITLE>Run Punto Banco - multiple shoes</TITLE>
<link rel=STYLESHEET href="css/mycss.css" type="text/css">
<script language="javascript" src="scripts/runpbsim.js"></script>
</HEAD>
...etc...
x=runpbsim(seed,noofshoes,ndx,charlie,charliepays,tracevalue,percentpenetration,playerstrategy,dealerstops,maxhandssplit);
....
function runpbsim(passedseed,noofshoes,ndx,charlie,charliepays,tracevaluepassed,percentpen,strategychosen,dstop,maxsplits) {
It's one of my to-dos to work out how to run c++ on my PC.
teliot
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May 16th, 2015 at 2:54:36 PM permalink
Quote: charliepatrick

It's when you put code into an HTML page or use a script. It takes just over 32s.

The program is written in javascript (it appears). Javascript can be run in many different environments. For example, you can run javascript from the command line in Ubuntu Linux.
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teliot
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May 18th, 2015 at 10:16:07 AM permalink
Quote: Ibeatyouraces

It will definitely be interesting to compare. Very tough to find a "good" UTH game.

My article on one dealer hole-card in UTH is complete -- Grosjean's strategy gets it right on the pre-Flop decision about 96.6% of the time, but there are a couple of rough edges.
Last edited by: unnamed administrator on Aug 8, 2024
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teliot
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May 18th, 2015 at 10:24:37 AM permalink
Quote: charliepatrick

It's one of my to-dos to work out how to run c++ on my PC.

Install "Cygwin." It is a free Linux environment, with all the compilers and languages you want to install, that you can use from Windows. This was the main environment I used for years until I bought my first dedicated Linux box back in 2009.

https://www.cygwin.com/
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