What's the risk of ruin?
March 31st, 2011 at 9:11:09 PM
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Can anyone calculate the risk of ruin in single hand deuces wild with the following values?
-Natural RF pays 55,000:5
-4 Deuces pays 12,500:5
-No other hand pays
-80,000 units (of 5 coins) bankroll
-Natural RF pays 55,000:5
-4 Deuces pays 12,500:5
-No other hand pays
-80,000 units (of 5 coins) bankroll
March 31st, 2011 at 9:19:19 PM
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Quote: clarkacalCan anyone calculate the risk of ruin in single hand deuces wild with the following values?
Why are the deuces wild?
March 31st, 2011 at 9:23:55 PM
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Because nobody can tame them ?
March 31st, 2011 at 9:59:54 PM
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Is this too easy or too hard?
April 1st, 2011 at 2:02:42 PM
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2.96%, but I'm very curious why you're asking.
April 1st, 2011 at 4:50:28 PM
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Quote: fivespot2.96%, but I'm very curious why you're asking.
the better question is why woud you want to play a game that only pays out on 2 hands?
April 1st, 2011 at 11:32:26 PM
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Quote: nullzero00the better question is why woud you want to play a game that only pays out on 2 hands?
If such a game existed as described, it would return over 112%. And it'd certainly be easy to play!
April 2nd, 2011 at 12:20:56 AM
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Quote: fivespot2.96%, but I'm very curious why you're asking.
Really? That doesn't sound right, how did you get that?
April 2nd, 2011 at 2:10:48 PM
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Quote: fivespotIf such a game existed as described, it would return over 112%. And it'd certainly be easy to play!
yes, because royal flushes happen sooooo frequently.
as an average player (read: not the 80,000 credit bankroll specified) you would probably lose a good chunk of money waiting for a paying hand to hit, especially since there are no "regular" payoff hands like 2 pair, 3 of a kind, etc.
April 2nd, 2011 at 4:23:26 PM
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Quote: clarkacalReally? That doesn't sound right, how did you get that?
Plugged it into off-the-shelf VP software. If this were an actual game and I were actually considering playing it, I'd double-check the figure. Still curious why you're asking. :)
April 2nd, 2011 at 4:29:03 PM
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Quote: nullzero00yes, because royal flushes happen sooooo frequently.
as an average player (read: not the 80,000 credit bankroll specified) you would probably lose a good chunk of money waiting for a paying hand to hit, especially since there are no "regular" payoff hands like 2 pair, 3 of a kind, etc.
Well, yes. It plays more like lottery tickets than any regular sort of video poker. It doesn't sound like fun.
If you're looking for fun, this wouldn't be a good game. If you're looking for profit but don't have a large bankroll, this wouldn't be a good game. That said, it does have a substantial player edge, and I would happily play it, if the stakes were right.
April 3rd, 2011 at 12:52:21 AM
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Putting it in a VP software I get a return of 112.7384% and a variance of 6545.90571! Playing optimal strategy you would get a natural royal flush once every 25,075 hands which would account for 38.91% of your return and you would get 4 deuces once every 3,630 hands which would give you the other 61.09%. You would have a 50% chance of not seeing any paying hand after 2205 hands, 25% chance of not seeing a paying hand after 4410 hands and a 1% chance of not seeing a single paying hand after 14650 hands!
