Just a coincidence?
The second pattern while playing that I notice is that when you get close to running out of credits, the machine suddenly starts to spit out a bunch of smaller-sized winning hands before finally taking it all back. It's almost as though it has been somehow hardwired into the program to give you those smaller winning hands before losing it all so as to give you hope and encourage you to put more money in. Which of course they want you to do anyway.
I tend to play very fast. Nervous energy I guess. So, it is much easier to observe how dramatic these questionable fluctuations are. I have seen these patterns of play time and time again. Is it merely a coincidence? Is it really totally random even though it appears otherwise? Or, is there something sus going on here?
Quote: ChumpChangeGame King will always be sus to me. But I find the most obvious things to be I'll discard a 4 of something and get a 4 of something else back, that kind of thing. Is the RNG just that bit deep to only find the next suit down?
link to original post
If you're holding two cards and discard one four:
nCr(3,1)*nCr(44,2)/nCr(47,3) = 0.1750231267345051
You will receive exactly one four 17.5% (approx) of the time.
And a pair of fours:
nCr(3,2)*nCr(44,1)/nCr(47,3) = 0.0081406105457909
About 0.814% of the time.
Between the two possibilities, that's more than 18.3%, or close to one in five hands, that you would expect that to happen. You could also get trip fours, but it's not very likely.
Naturally, the probability of seeing another four increases if you hold either zero or one cards.
Quote: RisottoI frequent the 7-11 which is a short walk from my home and has Game King machines that offer video poker options. My favorites are Duces Wild and Joker Poker. I have noticed what I believe are a few unusual patterns to the hands dealt. For example, I am hitting a pair of kings or better and three-of-a-kinds. Then lose a hand or two. Basically, keeping even at a steady pace. Then, if and when I hit a straight flush or a royal with a duce, this is followed by a run of very poor hands totally devoid of any decent cards to hold which promptly sucks back that decent win; and then some.
The second pattern while playing that I notice is that when you get close to running out of credits, the machine suddenly starts to spit out a bunch of smaller-sized winning hands before finally taking it all back. It's almost as though it has been somehow hardwired into the program to give you those smaller winning hands before losing it all so as to give you hope and encourage you to put more money in. Which of course they want you to do anyway.
I tend to play very fast. Nervous energy I guess. So, it is much easier to observe how dramatic these questionable fluctuations are. I have seen these patterns of play time and time again. Is it merely a coincidence? Is it really totally random even though it appears otherwise? Or, is there something sus going on here?
link to original post
The second paragraph is confirmation bias. Most of the hands that you win are small-sized wins because those are the most probable hands that are simultaneously winning results. If you will kindly look here:
https://wizardofodds.com/games/video-poker/tables/deuces-wild/
I just picked a paytable, so it's probably not the same, but let's add up the probabilities of getting any winning hand that pays as much, or less, than a 4OaK.
0.064938+0.021229+0.016784+0.056070+0.284690 = 0.443711
With that, you win roughly 44.3711% of hands with a four of a kind, or less. You lose roughly 54.6897% of hands. That leaves only 0.9392% of hands that can have any other result.
Given those probabilities, the most likely result with four, or so, total bets on the machine remaining is that you will win a few smaller hands before ultimately busting out. If you had only four more hands worth on the machine, you'd actually be less than 10% likely to lose all four of those hands without winning any.
you should see ALL of the patterns no matter what. Patterns exist in life without human intervention right?
these manufacturers know that they will be able to provide you with the CORRECT range of hands and all of those hands will contain cool or easily noticable patterns all the time. A pattern could be that you dont get good hands... yada yada. These hands happening in succession makes you believe theye are all a part of "one" session when in reality the numbers that are picked (in fully random machines) can (its improbable) repeat or never repeat.
As long as there is no way to predict what the numbers are going to come out its considered "fully random"
I think one would have a difficult time finding IGT at their local 7-11 not in Nevada. Perhaps other state-regulated states might have IGT VP in their 7-11's but I haven't noticed it anywhere other than NV. Mostly Las Vegas.Quote: heatmapone thing i think i should mention... depending on the jurisdiction ... if these are fully random ...
you should see ALL of the patterns no matter what. Patterns exist in life without human intervention right?
these manufacturers know that they will be able to provide you with the CORRECT range of hands and all of those hands will contain cool or easily noticable patterns all the time. A pattern could be that you dont get good hands... yada yada. These hands happening in succession makes you believe theye are all a part of "one" session when in reality the numbers that are picked (in fully random machines) can (its improbable) repeat or never repeat.
As long as there is no way to predict what the numbers are going to come out its considered "fully random"
link to original post
If you're interested in VP I suggest not playing in 7-11's unless they have a good promotion or they send good incentives. What's the 5-coin paytable? What if any players club system are they using?Quote: RisottoI frequent the 7-11 which is a short walk from my home and has Game King machines that offer video poker options. My favorites are Duces Wild and Joker Poker. I have noticed what I believe are a few unusual patterns to the hands dealt. For example, I am hitting a pair of kings or better and three-of-a-kinds. Then lose a hand or two. Basically, keeping even at a steady pace. Then, if and when I hit a straight flush or a royal with a duce, this is followed by a run of very poor hands totally devoid of any decent cards to hold which promptly sucks back that decent win; and then some.
The second pattern while playing that I notice is that when you get close to running out of credits, the machine suddenly starts to spit out a bunch of smaller-sized winning hands before finally taking it all back. It's almost as though it has been somehow hardwired into the program to give you those smaller winning hands before losing it all so as to give you hope and encourage you to put more money in. Which of course they want you to do anyway.
I tend to play very fast. Nervous energy I guess. So, it is much easier to observe how dramatic these questionable fluctuations are. I have seen these patterns of play time and time again. Is it merely a coincidence? Is it really totally random even though it appears otherwise? Or, is there something sus going on here?
link to original post
Perhaps it's just more of a convenience thing, if that's the case, I suggest looking at some local bars near you to see what they have to offer, you'll probably get a better deal, perhaps some ok promotions, club incentives, comped food, and possibly better pay tables.
You can check out places like Jackpot Joanie's, I believe they often times offer a small promotion for video poker players who hit any natural 10-13 four-of-a-kinds.
With 30 days to complete. It's not much, I think it's only a hundred bucks, but they'll send you some mail and they have various other things going on. If you find the right VP pay table I guess it could be slightly plus EV, but nothing to write home about. I'm fairly certain you have to be playing a $1.25 or more.
If you're going to play anyway you might as well try to get something more out of it. Just don't let those things suck you into paying more than you normally would if it's negative EV.
As to your original question, it's almost certainly confirmation bias.
1) Going for 6 Quickhits.Quote: AxelWolfAs to your original question, it's almost certainly confirmation bias.
link to original post
I get lucky and hit 7QH but keep playing because 6QH is +EV.
I lose all the $ from the 7QH and a little more before hitting the 6QH.
I would have made more $ if i stopped at 7QH.
2) Chasing 5QH, I hit the Bonus round and get 25 free games w/3x mult. I get a re-trigger so now 50 free games.
After it's over, i keep playing because 5QH is +ev.
Lose everything from the free games and then some before hitting the 5QH.
This happens more times than not for me.
After a big win from left field, i lose it all before hitting my intended play. (And not just in QH)
The worse was winning a 300x bet handpay then the machine turns cold and i lose it all and waaay more before hitting. I ended up losing $ on the play. (Yup, 400+ unit swing)
The only thing stopping me from wearing a Professor Slots tinFoilHat and quitting after the unexpected big win is knowing that the casino is in a regulated jurisdiction and that it's the RNG hating me that's causing this.
Also, how are new posters allowed to create threads?
Thought they needed 10posts first?
Quote: 100xOdds
Also, how are new posters allowed to create threads?
Thought they needed 10posts first?
link to original post
New forum members are allowed to create a limited number of threads and make a limited number of posts until their initial probation period is satisfied.
Once in a while, this does bring an interesting discussion into existence.
