The loss rebate at Molly's casinos, Las Vegas
May 16th, 2023 at 10:03:47 PM
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I just posted a new article on Wizard of Vegas which thoroughly analyzes the loss rebate at Molly's casinos, also listing its expected value under different scenarios:
https://wizardofvegas.com/articles/the-loss-rebate-at-mollys-las-vegas/
https://wizardofvegas.com/articles/the-loss-rebate-at-mollys-las-vegas/
Last edited by: FiliusBruce on May 16, 2023
May 17th, 2023 at 10:45:01 AM
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Very thorough article. One thought, without going deep into the effect of W2Gs on EV:
Instead of the variation mentioned here:
> You may have noticed that my proposed strategy results in extremely volatile outcomes. You would be doubling up everything, including $8,000 royal flushes! There’s a chance you are among the people who cannot stomach doubling up an $8,000 royal flush and possibly go home with nothing. That’s why I also considered a more conservative strategy: double-up, unless you have already hit a W-2G. With this strategy, you don’t double-up your $8,000 royal flushes, you double-up your $800 Four Aces only once (for a $1600 W-2G), you double-up your $400 Four Deuces only twice (for another $1600 W-2G), and so on. The expected value of this conservative strategy for Bonus Poker 7/5 is $18.51, only two cents less than the hard-to-stomach double-up-if-you-can. The win limit remains the same, $510.
What would the EV loss be if instead your strategy was to never double something that would take you INTO W2G territory? And for the sake of heart health not doubling anything already there :). Basically don't double anything >= $600. This seems less arbitrary and more intuitively smart. Especially if the loss of EV is still a few cents only.
Instead of the variation mentioned here:
> You may have noticed that my proposed strategy results in extremely volatile outcomes. You would be doubling up everything, including $8,000 royal flushes! There’s a chance you are among the people who cannot stomach doubling up an $8,000 royal flush and possibly go home with nothing. That’s why I also considered a more conservative strategy: double-up, unless you have already hit a W-2G. With this strategy, you don’t double-up your $8,000 royal flushes, you double-up your $800 Four Aces only once (for a $1600 W-2G), you double-up your $400 Four Deuces only twice (for another $1600 W-2G), and so on. The expected value of this conservative strategy for Bonus Poker 7/5 is $18.51, only two cents less than the hard-to-stomach double-up-if-you-can. The win limit remains the same, $510.
What would the EV loss be if instead your strategy was to never double something that would take you INTO W2G territory? And for the sake of heart health not doubling anything already there :). Basically don't double anything >= $600. This seems less arbitrary and more intuitively smart. Especially if the loss of EV is still a few cents only.
May 17th, 2023 at 3:52:39 PM
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Quote: MukkeWhat would the EV loss be if instead your strategy was to never double something that would take you INTO W2G territory? And for the sake of heart health not doubling anything already there :). Basically don't double anything >= $600. This seems less arbitrary and more intuitively smart. Especially if the loss of EV is still a few cents only.
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Good idea! I ran this, and I came up with an EV of $18.4857 for Bonus Poker 7/5, with an exit point of +$500.
May 17th, 2023 at 4:04:02 PM
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Quote: FiliusBruce
Good idea! I ran this, and I came up with an EV of $18.4857 for Bonus Poker 7/5, with an exit point of +$500.
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I just updated the article with this information.
