Another Nail in the Coffin

I think many of you are looking at this from the wrong angle. The casino might identify a guy playing a 98% VP machine table, but his play is so bad it is now a 94% RTP for him. They notice he plays every Tuesday. If smart (no snickers please) the casino offers him some free play to be used any Wednesday or Thursday. Entice him to come an extra day. Offer him twice what a smart guy playing the 98% machine is offered.

Let’s also say you identify a guy who with mailers/promotions would average +$100 for an 8 hour session. The casino does not just lose that $100. They lose 1/200 of a security guard’s salary. 1/100 of a cocktail waitresses salary. $10 in the host of free drinks. Hand sanitizer, toilet paper, electricity, etc….The guy eking out a few dollars is not spending $$$ at the restaurants, blowing $$$ at the gift shop, or even allowing his wife to drop $$$ on some other casino adventure.

I am NOT saying identifying and removing or even limiting these guys is worth the added costs of the technology or personnel needed, but if it was FREE, I’d be identifying anyone who I believed consistently played close to break even or better.

Quote: SOOPOO

I am NOT saying identifying and removing or even limiting these guys is worth the added costs of the technology or personnel needed, but if it was FREE, I’d be identifying anyone who I believed consistently played close to break even or better.

the problem with that is maybe this guy, playing breakeven VP or even slightly winning, or slightly +EV blackjack has a spouse or companion that loses 5, 10 times as much on the slots. Or maybe this guy playing break even or slight winning VP, also plays roulette, craps, or is a horse race bettor that loses 10 times any small amount he may win with slight +Ev on one game.

The casino industry and REAL casino guys, USED to understand that sometimes you spend a little or lose a little to get a much bigger overall return. Today's business grad pencil pushers, have lost that casino business model mentality they look at every single thing as if it is isolated, when it really is all tied together.

Another example, unrelated, but along the same lines: As has been discussed Station casinos has decided to not re-open buffets. The very words in the statemnet from the CEO, or CFO, I forget which said "they have been losing money on the buffets for years". Well guess what, when buffets were put in, the real casino guys understood that was a losing propition. But providing a cheap place for a decent meal would result in players staying and playing 6 hours instead of 3. So you don't measure buffet profits by what the buffet brings in. Real, casino people got this, "give a little" to get a bigger return" These new crop of business schoool pencil pushers just says "the buffet is losing money".

Booting low level advantage players is like not letting anyone over 205 lbs eat the buffet, or kicking out a grocery shopper who buys more than one item with a coupon. If you did that to them some of their close friend and family wouldn’t shop with you either and you’re not losing much to them. At a certain threshold obviously the math is a little different.

Not letting 6/5 blackjack players have even money on blackjack is another one of those things I think. Can’t let the player have any momentary edge even if they’re playing a 3% losing game + side bets at 60+ hands per hour. I’ve seen players who had zero complaints about 6/5 get up after not being able to take even money.

I think some low level wannabe APs actually are unpaid ambassadors for the casinos.

Apparently what a lot of people do not understand is there are laws and then there are policies and then there is enforcement.

Enforcement corresponds with the laws. If the official agencies within each jurisdiction will not enforce the laws, then there's no reason to push for it. There is also certain things and I cannot say what, will be chosen to be enforced because the official agencies demand us to do that and has put pressure on us and we are nothing but the go-between.

So at certain points it is like we are singling someone out, but we are not. We are in a bad situation because of the enforcement action by the official agencies that's responsible what they choose to enforce under the laws.

Then there are policies which we have to write to make the licensing agencies happy (satisfied) which are the gaming boards, that we are doing our part with the enforcement. I guess it would be similar to that of serving a drunk at a bar and continuously taking his money and allowing him to become more intoxicated and then get into his car and go out onto the highway in a clear indicated state and kill somebody.

Marcus Clark
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Quote: AxelWolf

How difficult would it be for this program to detect perfect play in all the different variants of video poker they have or may come up with? That doesn't sound very feasible.

actually that isn't difficult at all. I agree though, let them waste their resources on that.

Notice the casinos rarely target the games all the suckers play. They roll out the red carpet, give them generous comps and let them bet however they want.

Quote: AxelWolf

Notice the casinos rarely target the games all the suckers play. They roll out the red carpet, give them generous comps and let them bet however they want.

Sometimes they operate as if they want to make money.

Quote: billryan

Sometimes they operate as if they want to make money.

Those bastards!!!

Unfortunately, the limitations on this discussion is neither the APs nor the casinos know the real numbers.

Sure, the casino has the money count at the beginning of the day and the end, but they still have to guess whether they’re only dealing with normal variance or some people playing advantage in the overall totals as to know just what the effect is on the bottom line.

Quote: rxwine

Unfortunately, the limitations on this discussion is neither the APs nor the casinos know the real numbers.

Sure, the casino has the money count at the beginning of the day and the end, but they still have to guess whether they’re only dealing with normal variance or some people playing advantage in the overall totals as to know just what the effect is on the bottom line.

Variance is huge for individual players but wouldn't getting a few thousand butts in seats bring it much closer to the norm.

Quote: rxwine

Sure, the casino has the money count at the beginning of the day and the end, but they still have to guess

A few clever spreadsheet macros could tell them things with reasonable correlation, or at least suggest which small handful of players may merit further review.

There are likely several data patterns which are common to several types of advantage play.