Anyone see this?
December 3rd, 2010 at 9:12:06 PM
permalink
Quote: mkl654321No, YOU never said or implied that. In fact, the casino rates players on "theo", not on actual results, so aside from periodically checking its wallet, as you say, the casino doesn't really care about anything BUT "theoretical" results.
I've found that a good way to illustrate this is to think about the bell curve, with the EV determining the arithmetical value of the mean. You can still wind up anywhere under the bell curve no matter what, but the more positive (or the less negative) your EV is, the more of your results are going to be >0.
Man are you way off base (putting it nicely). Not all casinos rate players on theo, and some do rate on actual results. The #1 is Wynn/Encore. In fact, some won't ever tell you how they rate you. I ask all the time and the real world is much different than the assumed, or asserted, world.
December 3rd, 2010 at 9:13:57 PM
permalink
Quote: thecesspitIt's a highly variable game though... You'd hit the
magic quint-sixes once every 32.4 hours (on average). Your standard
deviation is 10,000...
That means on 10,000 rolls, your expected value is $2,861 +/- $10,000
(1 S.D)
After 100,000 rolls, $28,613 +/- $31,623 (1 S.D).
Enjoy.
This would be BIG time gambling.
at 10,000 rolls: only an 72.36% chance of a $1 profit or more.
36.82% chance of a $10002 profit or more.
or more / relative frequency / $ profit
100.00 / 27.6349% /-10000
0.7236511 / 35.5433% /1
0.3682183 / 22.8551% /10002
0.1396671 / 9.7966% /20003
0.0417012 / 3.1491% /30004
0.0102103 / 0.8097% /40005
at 100,000 rolls: ($100,000 bankroll) chances at different profit levels
Ouch, only an 82.47% chance of a $10 profit or more. That is gambling!
or more / $ profit
0.8247630 10
0.7361258 10011
0.6324974 20012
0.5214394 30013
0.4115758 40014
0.3106577 50015
0.2241377 60016
0.1545984 70017
0.1019952 80018
or less / $ loss
0.0011720 -69997
0.0041337 -59996
0.0117518 -49995
0.0280815 -39994
0.0580838 -29993
0.1063155 -19992
0.1752370 -9991
December 3rd, 2010 at 9:30:23 PM
permalink
Quote: JerryLoganNot when you say that immediately before saying this: "How many people do you know that make $65/hour or better?" Are you now saying that does not imply the gambler is "making" ~$68.67/hr.?
On average, that's precisely what I'm saying. The mean/average/EV hourly gain is $68.67. The volatility is very high, but that's the average. Over the course of a year, if you look at the player's results, he'll be up by somewhere in the vicinity of $68.67/hour or, more directly, 28% per bet.
This is exactly the same concept as saying that you lose an average of 2/38 per bet playing 00 roulette. You don't actually lose 2/38ths of each bet (unless you cover all 38 spots) but that's the average result over time.
My point, which is apparently being lost in the numbers discussion, is that the premise behind advantage play is making the bets when you have the best of it, and not making the bets when you don't. That's why there's such a big difference between bet A and B. Bet A is +EV. Bet B isn't. Some gamblers, including yourself, don't see a meaningful difference between the two. After all, they're both massive long-shots to win. The difference is that when you do win, Bet A is much, much more likely to cover the losses since the last win. Put another way, after a year where one player bets Bet A and another player bets Bet B based on the same dice throws, player A will have far more money than player B.
You might think "hey, it's all gambling, I don't care what the house edge is." That's fine, especially if you're in it for the fun and not so much for the money. But many people prefer needing less luck to come out ahead, and looking for opportunities like Bet A (and avoiding Bet B) is how to do that.
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice."
-- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
December 3rd, 2010 at 10:07:47 PM
permalink
Quote: MathExtremistIt's still gambling even if you have the edge. Any AP who says otherwise isn't being accurate.
I'm realizing that may not have been a good hypothetical so here's another more related to the idea of the double-royal-flush payout:
A) You bet $1 and throw 5 six-sided fair dice. If they all come up 6s, you win $10,000, otherwise you lose. Do you make the bet?
B) You bet $1 and throw 5 six-sided fair dice. If they all come up 6s, you win $5,000, otherwise you lose. Do you make the bet?
Gambling is Gambling.
You have an edge, you can still lose your shirt.
I would be like 98steps and his "Craps Investment Opportunity" and get my investors to put up the cash, I take a cut for the actual play and do not need to mortgage my house for the initial seed.
See, I learned something from this forum. Now, what casino has this bet? LOL!
This reminds me of a game some years ago called "Casino Yahtzee". Who remembers that one!?
7 winner chicken dinner!
December 3rd, 2010 at 10:25:35 PM
permalink
Quote: JerryLoganQuote: rdw4potusQuote: JerryLoganQuote: rdw4potusI rolled my 5 dice, and got [6,6,3,4,1]. You owe me $1.
Give me a name and address here and I'll send you the cash. Now let me propose a bet: $2 says you won't peek out of your shield of anonymity.
Roll 2 [6,4,4,2,1]. Another $1 win for me. You now owe me $4. Please send that $$ (and any optional forward payment on future rolls) to:
Ross Weber
C/O U.S. Energy Services
605 North Highway 169
Suite 1200
Plymouth, MN 55441
Two problems with that, already. First, you didn't wait until the 45th minute for the second roll, so it has to be disqualified. Now we're at $3. All I require now is proof of roll. Did you YouTube it, and who was your witness?
Your post with instructions was at 2:10 PST. The results of my second roll were posted at 2:57. 57-10>45, so yes I did infact wait for the second roll. Also, I really do have 5 D6 dice in my office at work, and while I am not serious about the money exchange I really did roll the dice and those really were the results. My coworkers like to second guess things, and they lack foresight (now there's a combination!) so when they come in asking how many units we should give a customer, I'll roll the dice and tell them to arrange them into a number that they'd like to use. Now they have other uses in the office as well. We had a wicked game of Liars Dice at lunch the other day. I'll start another thread about it.
"So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett
December 3rd, 2010 at 10:28:49 PM
permalink
Quote: 7winnerGambling is Gambling.
That's sort of like saying, "a car is a car", or, "happiness is happiness". It's a tautological statement, in other words.
There are good gambles and bad gambles. I've heard every variation of the stupid statement "That's why they call it gambling" from people who are trying to justify making a foolish bet. The fact of the matter is that EV is the way to evaluate whether a bet is good or bad. Of course you can lose when you have the edge. of course you can win when you are at a disadvantage. But that does NOT, as so many people seem to think, mean that there is no functional difference between +EV and -EV.
The fact that a believer is happier than a skeptic is no more to the point than the fact that a drunken man is happier than a sober one. The happiness of credulity is a cheap and dangerous quality.---George Bernard Shaw
December 3rd, 2010 at 10:39:02 PM
permalink
Quote: mkl654321It's a tautological statement,
Actually, its not. Tautology uses different words that mean the same thing, not the same words over and over.. Tautology depends mostly on redundency. Repetition of the same 'sense' using different words.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
December 4th, 2010 at 1:18:06 PM
permalink
Quote: MathExtremistOn average, that's precisely what I'm saying. The mean/average/EV hourly gain is $68.67. The volatility is very high, but that's the average. Over the course of a year, if you look at the player's results, he'll be up by somewhere in the vicinity of $68.67/hour or, more directly, 28% per bet.
The easy way out. Your statement is exactly why Singer tells us previously confused vp players that the only long run is experienced by the casinos and each individual machine. He goes on to say no player reaches it, they only approach it, and during their lifetime they will never attain it.
That is as clear and clean an advisement as I've ever heard from the vp gurus. Your "over the course of a year" is so theoretical that any casino manager would laugh at it, and then go on to remind you that ALL of his promotions are aimed at bringing in as many advantage players as he can possibly get to come in, since they are the ones who'll bring in the most money to lose on their short term tries, whereas the casinos ALWAYS hold the edge.
December 4th, 2010 at 1:37:54 PM
permalink
Quote: mkl654321The casino rates players on "theo", not on actual results, so aside from periodically checking its wallet, as you say, the casino doesn't really care about anything BUT "theoretical" results.
That fails completely to explain why the floor supervisors are always checking my chips when I color up and why they come up with total losses and winnings at year's end.
December 4th, 2010 at 3:36:56 PM
permalink
Quote: SanchoPanzaThat fails completely to explain why the floor supervisors are always checking my chips when I color up and why they come up with total losses and winnings at year's end.
Reread: "aside from periodically checking its wallet". The casino does count its money, and of course it wants to know how much PROFIT it makes, and counting the money is ONE of the ways that it evaluates that. However, it doesn't get too concerned about the individual results in any one period. It knows that it'll come out ahead in the long run.
The reason why the floor supervisors "check your chips" (I assume that you are referring to the dealers' announcing "color up, black out" or something similar), is more to protect the house from cheating by the dealers than anything else.
The fact that a believer is happier than a skeptic is no more to the point than the fact that a drunken man is happier than a sober one. The happiness of credulity is a cheap and dangerous quality.---George Bernard Shaw
December 4th, 2010 at 4:13:07 PM
permalink
Quote: mkl654321However, it doesn't get too concerned about the individual results in any one period. It knows that it'll come out ahead in the long run.
That really depends on the casino. I've had three different conversations with casino operators (one land-based, two online) who were worried about their monthly numbers. In one case, the GM was worried about a 0.1% discrepancy in their slot win numbers. In my experience, the question of whether the floorpeople sweat the money is directly related to how much heat the GM takes from the ownership group on monthly or quarterly numbers. This usually doesn't happen with big, corporate-owned properties, but the smaller regional ones tend to get twitchy when they have a big winner.
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice."
-- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
December 4th, 2010 at 4:45:23 PM
permalink
Quote: MathExtremistThat really depends on the casino. I've had three different conversations with casino operators (one land-based, two online) who were worried about their monthly numbers. In one case, the GM was worried about a 0.1% discrepancy in their slot win numbers. In my experience, the question of whether the floorpeople sweat the money is directly related to how much heat the GM takes from the ownership group on monthly or quarterly numbers. This usually doesn't happen with big, corporate-owned properties, but the smaller regional ones tend to get twitchy when they have a big winner.
Well, "one land-based, two online" equals one real casino; besides, an online casino could be dramatically underfunded, possibly forcing The Big Guava to sell his Gulfstream jet if somebody hits the big progressive.
I was working in Reno many years when the Riverside died. The story was (as reported in the local rag) that two people hit $25,000 Keno tickets in the same week. They could barely handle the first one; the second killed them. As I recall, they were able to pay the second guy off, but the result was that they fell way below the minimum cash-on-hand requirement imposed by the Gaming Board. Normally, the smaller casinos would give each other short-term loans to help with such a problem, but the owner of the Riverside didn't get along with most of the other casino owners, so they didn't throw him a lifeline. The place never reopened.
I doubt that cash-on-hand is ever a problem for any but the smallest casinos nowadays. If there is a big winner, they smile, hand him an oversized cardboard check, and take his picture. Maybe they then take the slot manager downstairs and electrocute him, but I doubt it.
The fact that a believer is happier than a skeptic is no more to the point than the fact that a drunken man is happier than a sober one. The happiness of credulity is a cheap and dangerous quality.---George Bernard Shaw
December 4th, 2010 at 4:50:19 PM
permalink
I am not in the casino industry, but I know those who are. I suspect some people sweat the daily and weekly numbers, others worry about theo, and yet others worry if the drink girls are bringing around beverages quick enough. I don't think Theo is King in the world of a casino.
Theo can't be the only thing they want... for instance a single $100,000 is not amenable as 100 $1,000 bets for the casino, even though the theoretical is the same. Variance must be part of the equations the bean counters are using, as they want to know if their take is good or bad compared to the average. They have to, not least if the actual deviates wildly from the predictions... this could indicate problems. They will concern themselves with hold (see those guys talking about designing their own games), and marketing, and the dealer on the night shift who always seems to pay out big bonus hands in 3 card poker.
And this is exactly what I suggest for playing games, and where a lot of my interest is in this board. What will results look like over the mid-term? I could design a game that has a theo of +50% that APers wouldn't play, as it takes too long between "spins".
Theo can't be the only thing they want... for instance a single $100,000 is not amenable as 100 $1,000 bets for the casino, even though the theoretical is the same. Variance must be part of the equations the bean counters are using, as they want to know if their take is good or bad compared to the average. They have to, not least if the actual deviates wildly from the predictions... this could indicate problems. They will concern themselves with hold (see those guys talking about designing their own games), and marketing, and the dealer on the night shift who always seems to pay out big bonus hands in 3 card poker.
And this is exactly what I suggest for playing games, and where a lot of my interest is in this board. What will results look like over the mid-term? I could design a game that has a theo of +50% that APers wouldn't play, as it takes too long between "spins".
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
January 24th, 2011 at 10:12:31 AM
permalink
To try to get this thread back on topic, here is the court order that states Jerry's Nugget can not trespass a player for advantage play alone.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
January 24th, 2011 at 10:32:06 AM
permalink
Good opinion. Unfortunately it is by a muncipal court judge in North Las Vegas and is not binding any where else. You can be sure if the casino appeals this, it will be overturned.
"Dice, verily, are armed with goads and driving-hooks, deceiving and tormenting, causing grievous woe." -Rig Veda 10.34.4
