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6 members have voted

ALG
ALG
Joined: Feb 8, 2021
  • Threads: 1
  • Posts: 4
February 10th, 2021 at 9:22:21 PM permalink
Local casino offering jackpot bonuses promo for all hand pays. $1200+ pays $150 all the way up to $30K pays $3000.

The easiest way I came up with to determine value was to use $5 DDB so all 4OK would be hand pays and get extra bonus. Example 4 5 thur kings pays $1250 + $150 bonus = $1400/25 = $56. 4 Aces would be $170 etc.

The 9-6-4 DDB return is 100.8%

9-5-4 DDB would be 99.71%.

Casino has generous cash back and conservatively playing $25 hands @ 600 hands/hr would be $20-100/hr cash back based on tier level.

What bankroll per hour would you be comfortable playing $5 DDB?

Question for the math gurus. Is it possible to determine return table for say $1 multi-play Powerhouse or Super Times where multipliers would increase the chance of hand pays? For example $1 10 play Powerhouse would be $100/hand and generate more hand pays than single line DDB. Problem w/ return table is not all 4OK would be hand pays but flush or full hours on the deal would pay extra bonus.

This isn't about W2s and taxes or personal net income. That isn't relevant to the return on this play.
DRich
DRich
Joined: Jul 6, 2012
  • Threads: 75
  • Posts: 7006
February 11th, 2021 at 8:04:58 AM permalink
That sounds too good to be true.
Living longer does not always infer +EV
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
  • Threads: 108
  • Posts: 7505
February 11th, 2021 at 11:53:01 AM permalink
Quote: ALG

Local casino offering jackpot bonuses promo for all hand pays. $1200+ pays $150 all the way up to $30K pays $3000.

The easiest way I came up with to determine value was to use $5 DDB so all 4OK would be hand pays and get extra bonus. Example 4 5 thur kings pays $1250 + $150 bonus = $1400/25 = $56. 4 Aces would be $170 etc.

The 9-6-4 DDB return is 100.8%

9-5-4 DDB would be 99.71%.

Casino has generous cash back and conservatively playing $25 hands @ 600 hands/hr would be $20-100/hr cash back based on tier level.

What bankroll per hour would you be comfortable playing $5 DDB?

Question for the math gurus. Is it possible to determine return table for say $1 multi-play Powerhouse or Super Times where multipliers would increase the chance of hand pays? For example $1 10 play Powerhouse would be $100/hand and generate more hand pays than single line DDB. Problem w/ return table is not all 4OK would be hand pays but flush or full hours on the deal would pay extra bonus.

This isn't about W2s and taxes or personal net income. That isn't relevant to the return on this play.



Welcome to the forum ALG! I can assure you that you will be getting PM’s begging you to name the place! I’m sure someone here will soon be able to do the math and give you an answer!

My question to add on..... would this additional pay for ‘high paying hands’ result in a change in the ‘basic strategy’ you need to use?

And ALG.... taxes/tips are real life events that should be considered, right?
DRich
DRich
Joined: Jul 6, 2012
  • Threads: 75
  • Posts: 7006
February 11th, 2021 at 12:18:46 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO


My question to add on..... would this additional pay for ‘high paying hands’ result in a change in the ‘basic strategy’ you need to use?

And ALG.... taxes/tips are real life events that should be considered, right?



Yes, I used to play a lot of high denom video poker for such occassions like this and you definitely make strategy changes. One year I got very sloppy with my W2G's and got punished by the IRS for not claiming all of them (I missed about 30 of them).
Living longer does not always infer +EV
rdw4potus
rdw4potus
Joined: Mar 11, 2010
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February 11th, 2021 at 3:23:02 PM permalink
Are you sure this works on all jackpots? Are you sure the games are that good? The flyer I got reads like it pre-supposes that it is only possible to get one jackpot during the promo period. And, VP ev is capped below what you're saying. I guess maybe 2 casinos are running identical promos at the same time. But the one that sent me info is less good than you're saying.
Last edited by: rdw4potus on Feb 11, 2021
"So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett
ALG
ALG
Joined: Feb 8, 2021
  • Threads: 1
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February 11th, 2021 at 8:26:10 PM permalink
Quote: DRich

That sounds too good to be true.



Like all things usually are. So the fine print.

This is a promo only offered for select times. It isn't available 24/7 grind option.

Then the extra bonus is paid if form of free play eligible only to be used at a different time.

I think the best VP odds at this casino is 9-5-4 DDB. The best JOB they offer is 8-5 to put in perspective.
ALG
ALG
Joined: Feb 8, 2021
  • Threads: 1
  • Posts: 4
February 11th, 2021 at 8:38:52 PM permalink
Quote: rdw4potus

Are you sure this works on all jackpots? Are you sure the games are that good? The flyer I got reads like it pre-supposes that it is only possible to get one jackpot during the promo period. And, VP ev is capped below what you're saying. I guess maybe 2 casinos are running identical promos at the same time. But the one that sent me info is less good than you're saying.



No and No.

But I think this is something different game then you are talking about.
Mental
Mental
Joined: Dec 10, 2018
  • Threads: 1
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Thanks for this post from:
ALG
February 12th, 2021 at 4:47:08 AM permalink
Quote: ALG

Local casino offering jackpot bonuses promo for all hand pays. $1200+ pays $150 all the way up to $30K pays $3000.

What bankroll per hour would you be comfortable playing $5 DDB?



This is from code I wrote 17 years ago, so I can't vouch for how perfect the results are. I included results for a coin-flip game as a sanity check. I know I truncated the distribution at some large number of bins.

The way you read the table is for a number of flips/hands, I give the ending bankroll for nine different percentile points. The column on the right is the percent gain/loss (return) at the given percentile. For a coin flip, I give the 50th percentile, and the median return is zero for all numbers of games. For DDB, I give the 1st percentile, so 99 times out of 100 you will have a better return after the given number of hands.

COIN FLIP, 0, 2
+------- +-------------------------------------------------------+
| # \ % | 1% 5% 10% 20% 50% 80% 90% 95% 99% | %-tile 50
+------- +-------------------------------------------------------+
| 4 | -3 -3 -2 -2 0 2 2 4 4 | +0.000
| 16 | -10 -6 -6 -4 0 4 6 6 10 | +0.000
| 64 | -18 -14 -10 -6 0 6 10 14 18 | +0.000
| 256 | -38 -26 -20 -14 0 14 20 26 38 | +0.000
| 1024 | -74 -52 -42 -26 0 26 42 52 74 | +0.000
| 4096 | -148 -106 -82 -54 0 54 82 106 148 | +0.000
| 16384 | -298 -210 -164 -108 0 108 164 210 298 | +0.000
| 65536 | -596 -422 -328 -216 0 216 328 422 596 | +0.000
| 262144 | -1192 -842 -656 -430 0 430 656 842 1192 | +0.000
|1048576 | -2382 -1684 -1312 -862 0 862 1312 1684 2382 | +0.000
+------- +-------------------------------------------------------+


DOUBLE DOUBLE BONUS POKER, 0, 1, 3, 4, 5, 9, 50, 80, 160, 400, 800
+------- +-------------------------------------------------------+
| # \ % | 1% 5% 10% 20% 50% 80% 90% 95% 99% | %-tile 1
+------- +-------------------------------------------------------+
| 4 | -3 -3 -3 -3 -2 1 3 6 46 | -75.000
| 16 | -13 -11 -10 -8 -4 1 5 12 75 | -81.250
| 64 | -36 -30 -27 -23 -13 3 34 58 159 | -56.250
| 256 | -101 -87 -78 -67 -33 29 91 146 414 | -39.453
| 1024 | -288 -242 -214 -173 -70 84 218 370 778 | -28.125
| 4096 | -770 -628 -543 -429 -162 217 474 702 1179 | -18.799
| 16384 | -1965 -1580 -1355 -1062 -427 314 745 1122 1884 | -11.993
| 65536 | -4950 -4011 -3486 -2826 -1487 -46 749 1428 2753 | -7.553
| 262144 |-13050-10985 -9858 -8468 -5733 -2895 -1371 -91 2362 | -4.978
|1048576 |-37736-33412-31082-28232-22688-16912-13578-10074 29032 | -3.599
+------- +-------------------------------------------------------+

These are not worst-stuck numbers. After 65K hands of 9/5/4 DDB, the 1st percentile is a loss of 4950 bets (-7.553%), but you could have been stuck more bets than that at some point. Note that you can be ahead after 1M hands of this sub-98% ROI game.

The DDB result takes less than 4 seconds to calculate using java.
Quote: ALG


Question for the math gurus. Is it possible to determine return table for say $1 multi-play Powerhouse or Super Times where multipliers would increase the chance of hand pays? For example $1 10 play Powerhouse would be $100/hand and generate more hand pays than single line DDB. Problem w/ return table is not all 4OK would be hand pays but flush or full hours on the deal would pay extra bonus.

This isn't about W2s and taxes or personal net income. That isn't relevant to the return on this play.



Of course, it is possible if you have an accurate game model. I have code to calculate the W2-G return for N-play video-poker. I use monte carlo simulation, but you could get exact numbers by looking at the weighted outcome of each draw of each possible N-play starting hand. MC simulation is just quicker to code and fairly accurate. You need the STP probabilities for each multiplier. I thought we only were given the average multiplier.
rdw4potus
rdw4potus
Joined: Mar 11, 2010
  • Threads: 80
  • Posts: 7209
February 12th, 2021 at 12:25:35 PM permalink
Quote: ALG

No and No.

But I think this is something different game then you are talking about.



Might be the same. Seems unlikely that two similar promos would happen at the same time. Have you considered $1 10 hand UltX DDB? That was my plan, but my thought didn't really go beyond "I'm gonna sit there for a minute or two anyway..."
"So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett
Mental
Mental
Joined: Dec 10, 2018
  • Threads: 1
  • Posts: 112
February 12th, 2021 at 2:24:49 PM permalink
Quote: rdw4potus

Might be the same. Seems unlikely that two similar promos would happen at the same time. Have you considered $1 10 hand UltX DDB? That was my plan, but my thought didn't really go beyond "I'm gonna sit there for a minute or two anyway..."



I don't know the structure of the payout. I used to play a lot of one-time jackpot coupons for a small fixed bonus like $150. $10 JB matched this payout structure the best. 10-play has a whole spectrum of W2-G payouts. These may not be efficient, depending on the structure of the promo.

In the spoiler, I put a MC sim result for the number of bets returned for 10-play 9/5 DDB on 259,896,000 starting hands. If you paste this into a spreadsheet, you can sum the probabilities below 240 bets (less than $1200 on a $1 5-coin game). You can also replicate it for multi[pliers in STP if you know how often 2x payout, etc. If you have other trigger points for bigger bonus payouts, it should be easy to figure those probabilities in separate sums. For example. 3.1% of deals lead to a zero payout and 7.6% pay 10 bets (a push unless you are playing STP).

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1630, 0.0000000077
1631, 0.0000000038
1633, 0.0000000038
1651, 0.0000000038
1652, 0.0000000038
1655, 0.0000000269
1656, 0.0000000154
1657, 0.0000000077
1658, 0.0000000038
1659, 0.0000000115
1660, 0.0000000385
1661, 0.0000000154
1662, 0.0000000077
1663, 0.0000000077
1664, 0.0000000231
1665, 0.0000000115
1666, 0.0000000192
1667, 0.0000000077
1668, 0.0000000077
1669, 0.0000000038
1670, 0.0000000038
1671, 0.0000000038
1672, 0.0000000038
1675, 0.0000000038
1704, 0.0000000038
1705, 0.0000000038
1712, 0.0000000038
1713, 0.0000000038
1840, 0.0000025048
2080, 0.0000038438
2320, 0.0000034860
2401, 0.0000000154
2402, 0.0000000115
2403, 0.0000000077
2405, 0.0000000231
2406, 0.0000000385
2407, 0.0000000077
2408, 0.0000000115
2409, 0.0000000038
2410, 0.0000000346
2411, 0.0000000385
2412, 0.0000000192
2413, 0.0000000154
2414, 0.0000000192
2415, 0.0000000154
2416, 0.0000000115
2417, 0.0000000115
2418, 0.0000000038
2419, 0.0000000077
2420, 0.0000000038
2421, 0.0000000038
2422, 0.0000000038
2428, 0.0000000038
2460, 0.0000000077
2464, 0.0000000038
2560, 0.0000020239
2800, 0.0000009927
3040, 0.0000002270
3205, 0.0000000038
3206, 0.0000000077
3207, 0.0000000077
3280, 0.0000000500
3520, 0.0000000115
4000, 0.0000046172
8000, 0.0000015391


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