Progressive Question
40,000 spins x 5 x $0.25 = $50,000 coin-in. 98.0% payback = $1,000 loss -Royal pays $1,000
40,000 spins x 5 x $1.00 = $200,000 coin-in. 99.0% payback = $2,000 loss -Royal pays $4,000
40,000 spins x 5 x $5.00 = $1,000,000 coin-in. 99.5% payback = $5,000 loss -Royal pays $20,000
There's a particular online casino that gets top ratings in the US(yeah I know it's online so anything goes) that's so greedy their Auto hold is absolutely atrocious and there's no way to turn it off, obviously, you can override the auto hold.Quote: CrystalMathI don’t know the answer, but you can always override the auto hold. If you get familiar with the bad auto holds, you can play very fast and just watch out for the bad ones.
Deuces Wild. Here's just a few examples: It will Auto hold hold two deuces over adult straight flush. With three Deuces it will auto hold the dealt straight flush, It will hold a dealt straight with 4 to the royal(yep, I want my 10 coins over a 4 card Royal draw, on Deuces Wild multi-line no less).
What's even more greedy of them, they actually have autoplay that will play and hold your hands for you, how nice of them to include autoplay.
When I was on another forum, we had a member who both he and his wife had not hit a royal flush in 10 years of play. The question is how many hands did they play? Not that many I suspect. The number of royals you receive is a factor of the number of hands you play. We play about 200K-300K hands of single line VP a year. Our royals vary from 2-3 to as many as eight a year.Quote: TomGThere are people who have gone over 100 years without hitting a royal flush. There are other people who hit them every week.
There is no law or internal programing that says a machine must hit a royal in any number of hands. I am sure there are machines out there that have never hit one. There is also no pay schedule for playing computer perfect. Perhaps there should be. To verify this for yourself, look at the pay schedule. Do you see a jackpot that says "WINNER! You played 100% perfect!"
Seriously, what positive odds and perfect play do is give you more chances at a jackpot with the same money. There is nothing that says you will or will not make a profit at anytime or on any machine. Video poker is gambling. Gambling involves risk. As long as you understand that, you are good to go.
As far as how I play video poker is concerned, I play video poker for entertainment. I play the way that gives me the most entertainment for my money. I do not have the games, skill, motivation or discipline of an AP. It does not entertain me any more to play a positive game over a negative game. My entertainment is derived from trying to beat the casino on a daily basis. When that day is done, the game starts over. If you play for VP profit, do what the experts tell you to do.
I don't like to talk about the market on these forums. This is a gambling forum, not an investment forum. That said, there is a huge difference between long term investing and short term trading. Short term trading is a casino. It's no different than what will happen when I go to the casino later today.Quote: TomGI wonder if there has ever been someone who has bought stock and not become a millionaire. If such a person were to ever exist, would you grant them permission to play video poker differently than you do?
When an AP plays video poker he/she is in it for the long term. They have skill, discipline and confidence and are willing to wait for the return. Long term investors do the same thing. The problem most people have with the markets is they don't know what they are buying and when things get tough they panic and get out. When times are good like they are now, everyone is winner. When times are bad like they were in 2008, it's not so easy.
There are people who have lost millions in the stock market. There are people who have lost millions in a casino too. If it was easy, everyone could do it.
You are like a broken record, and now I am too.Quote: SingleCoinVP
There is no law or internal programing that says a machine must hit a royal in any number of hands. I am sure there are machines out there that have never hit one. There is also no pay schedule for playing computer perfect. Perhaps there should be. To verify this for yourself, look at the pay schedule. Do you see a jackpot that says "WINNER! You played 100% perfect!"
You keep leading back to being able to play computer perfect continually adding it in so you can prove some kind of point and it's a major fail each time you toss it in it shows you're desperately grasping at straws.
I'll say it again, there is no need to be able to play computer perfect in order to gain Advantage when playing + EV video poker. If you're playing a situation where you have to play 100% computer perfect to gain an advantage then you're probably doing something wrong. For the most part, most Advantage players don't bother with plays like that unless they are trying to earn some comps or just messing around, but situations like that are not their bread and butter.
Your mistakes only have to cost you less in the long run than what your advantage is. Assuming you take a little time and effort to look for better situations they are not all that hard to find. Assuming you have 1.5 % advantage or better on video poker you can actually make quite a few mistakes and still have a decent advantage(I'm not saying you can play like a complete idiot).
If you consider Advantage slot and keno plays it's almost impossible to mess it up.
Kind of reminds me of something a member here recently said when we were on a very valuable slot play when he mentioned the only way we could f*** this up was to accidentally bet one coin and hit the jackpot. In reality even if that happened the only value you would have actually lost when doing that would have been $0.15 hitting it would not have had any bearing on the value of the play. It would have been mentally taxing for the person I accidentally but one coin hit it.
That's why I like slots so much better than VP. If the math is correct it's pretty hard to mess it up and you can crank out a s*** ton of spins without much effort at all. You can can play with your eyes closed, take a zen nap, go on the internet with your phone, drink, you can get distracted watching hot girls, you can eat food etc.
How do you tell if a slot is an advantage play when the odds are not on the machine?Quote: AxelWolfThat's why I like slots so much better than VP. If the math is correct it's pretty hard to mess it up and you can crank out a s*** ton of spins without much effort at all. You can can play with your eyes closed, take a zen nap, go on the internet with your phone, drink, you can get distracted watching hot girls, you can eat food etc.
Quote: SingleCoinVPHow do you tell if a slot is an advantage play when the pay schedule is not on the machine?
Hey SCVP.... now that is a good question! And here is where I agree with you about one of the glaring weaknesses of this forum...... no one will tell you! They feel putting their plays out in the open means a casino will read this and close the loophole.
But I can give a few simple examples! If a progressive jackpot exceeds a certain amount the game turns +EV. Apparently it is not too difficult to figure out the break even point. You would then need to determine when it is worth it for you to try. Of course, just a +EV as you have said many times is not reason enough to play a machine, but you need to factor in variance, bankroll, time, etc.
There are smaller "must hit" jackpots, I think called mega and major and minor, that all have a defined number they must pay out before going over. So if a Major must pay by $1000, and it is at $999, it is a play for sure. Those familiar can tell if it becomes a play at $950, $975, or $990.
Then there are loss rebate opportunities. Read about those here. They tend to work better on high variance games.
Then there are 'comp point multiplier' days.
Yikes.... I missed the main part of your question. I think with a given paytable members here can figure out the percentage payback. Some one else will answer that better than I can.
Quote: SingleCoinVPHow do you tell if a slot is an advantage play when the odds are not on the machine?
there is literally an entire thread concurrently running about advantage play slots.
I wont ruin it for you. think of the middle east and the riddle of the sphinx for the name of the slot.
its a "golden" opportunity
There are multiple different ways. A guy like you who has supposedly made millions in the stock market should be able to figure that out with some research.Quote: SingleCoinVPHow do you tell if a slot is an advantage play when the odds are not on the machine?
Sometimes you can even just make an educated guess and you'll still be certain that you have an advantage.
Quote: darkozthere is literally an entire thread concurrently running about advantage play slots.
I wont ruin it for you. think of the middle east and the riddle of the sphinx for the name of the slot.
its a "golden" opportunity
But he had no interest in vulturing Ultimate X, so I doubt he would want to do this either. But, yes advantage play is work. If it was easy, casinos would be in real trouble.
Quote: tringlomaneBut he had no interest in vulturing Ultimate X, so I doubt he would want to do this either. But, yes advantage play is work. If it was easy, casinos would be in real trouble.
so here is the old religious joke time to trot out. forgive me if you heard this one before.
Massive storm, flooding. A priest is on a hill besieged, water up to his knees.
Along comes a rowboat. "FATHER FATHER HOP IN. WE WILL SAVE YOU"
"NO, THANKS. MY FAITH IS IN THE LORD. HE WILL SAVE ME."
water up to his chest, along comes a 2nd rowboat with the same result.
water up to his neck and a third rowboat passes, and again the priest says he has faith in the lord to save him.
the water finally rises over his head and the priest goes to heaven.
when he arrives he sees the Lord and asks "Lord, why did you forsake me? I believed in you!"
And the Lord replies, "Are you insane? I sent you three rowboats"
Generally, I only play slots when I grow tired of VP. Someone recently claimed to have calculated the house edge on the Florida Hard Rock slots. He claimed it to be around 10%. Our VP is around 97-99% depending on the denomination. By playing the way we do, we hold our annual cost to play VP to less than $5,000. Add in a dozen comped rooms, free play and some food and it's cheap fun. For sure, we would like to make money playing the game. Who wouldn't?
Quote: SingleCoinVPGood story. I'll do some research and check out that Thread. I always assumed slots were the worst loser in the casino. I have hit a few nice slot jackpots out of pure luck. Hit and run has been my best slot strategy.
Generally, I only play slots when I grow tired of VP. Someone recently claimed to have calculated the house edge on the Florida Hard Rock slots. He claimed it to be around 10%. Our VP is around 97-99% depending on the denomination. By playing the way we do, we hold our annual cost to play VP to less than $5,000. Add in a dozen comped rooms, free play and some food and it's cheap fun. For sure, we would like to make money playing the game. Who wouldn't?
well, there is your first mistake.
Hit and run is not a strategy! Or if you insist it is, it is a losing strategy.
Also playing 97% VP without some other linked play that turns it positive is also a losing strategy.
Being an AP is not just finding the opportunity but refusing to play the losing strategies as well.
I get it! I love roulette. I have played for fun. But I haven't played in a long time because it is not an AP move.
So first lesson to you, as painful as it is, if you dont see any AP opportunity, then just dont play
I have long suspected that APs don't play as I imagine they do. I go to the casino to play games, not walk around looking for one hand opportunities. Unfortunately, I am 15 years too late and live in the wrong end of the country.Quote: darkozSo first lesson to you, as painful as it is, if you dont see any AP opportunity, then just dont play
Is there a casino game that I can play all day with an advantage? Other than full pay quarter games in Vegas, I have never seen one myself. As I am not moving to Vegas any time soon, the best I can hope for is to pay less to play.
Quote: SingleCoinVPThanks for the information. I have only played Keno a few times. I have never seen a Keno progressive. Is this a Montana thing or do they have them elsewhere? What I have seen are video poker progressives. I can clearly understand that a progressive can grow large enough to make it an advantage game. Where we play the casinos reduce the odds on the progressive machines. The Tampa Hard Rock has a 97% dollar royal progressive. I check it once in a while and have never seen it over $5,000. I always wonder how large it would have to be before this games turns positive?
Use the WoO game calculator to determine the return of the game with an 800-FOR-1 Royal. Determine the percentage difference as compared to 100%. Determine how much would have to be added to the royal, without changing strategy, to make it breakeven. If you change strategy, then it is something ever so slightly lower than that. Here's an example, let's do 98.91% Deuces:
https://wizardofodds.com/games/video-poker/tables/deuces-wild/
Okay, so the Royal pays 800 coins and comprises 1.8423% of the return. You need 1.09% to be added to the return, so you do:
.0109/.018423 = 0.59165173967
The Royal must be increased by that percentage of coins, so:
800*0.59165173967 = 473.32, so let's call it 474. Now, we go to thew game calculator and plug in 1274 for the royal:
https://wizardofodds.com/games/video-poker/strategy/calculator/
1274-200-25-15-9-4-4-3-2-1
Result: 1.000727
Again, it's a little higher because we rounded up and because there are strategy changes you could make that improve the return. Even rounding down to 1273 yields a positive return with a modified optimal strategy, but the simple method I just showed you is how to determine positive if you know regular optimal strategy for the game and do not want to make any adjustments.
Quote:Where we play video poker advantage games are extinct. There may be a few still lurking somewhere. This does not keep me from playing video poker. The vast majority of the time I play max coins. I do this for two reasons, I like the comps and I like hitting $1,000 royals. I do play a small amount of dollar video poker. I do this at the end of the day, so I don't feed my winnings back into the machines. I can't change the games at the Hard Rock, but I can hold my cost to play to a reasonable level.
Your cost is however much you want to lose, regardless of how much you are betting. It sounds like you value time on device, nothing wrong with that if it is your primary goal.
Quote:None of what I do has anything whatsoever to do with making a profit. There is no possible way anyone can beat the games we play long term. I don't get paid for playing advantage games computer perfect. When I get paid, it's for being lucky.
There probably is, but you would have to think outside of the game itself.
Yes, "time on device" is my primary goal. Bob Dancer has always told me I have positive opportunities available to me, but I won't do what is required. I can see now what he has been talking about. Positive opportunities exist, they just don't hang around long.Quote: Mission146It sounds like you value time on device, nothing wrong with that if it is your primary goal.
Thanks for the thorough explanation. I will calculate the royal value required to make a 97% game positive. According to my VPW software a 10,000 coin royal progressive would be 101% on these games. Perhaps I will see one that large some day?
Quote: SingleCoinVPYes, "time on device" is my primary goal. Bob Dancer has always told me I have positive opportunities available to me, but I won't do what is required. I can see now what he has been talking about. Positive opportunities exist, they just don't hang around long.
One of the first lessons I received in film school:
Its called show BUSINESS! Emphasis on Business.
plenty of film makers first entering the field do it to do nothing but create art. then they are schooled on the business side.
they find out they CANT do what they would prefer but must adhere to business constraints.
AP is similar.
You want to find a way of playing all day?
You want to do that because you want to have fun and fun and winning to go together
start thinking of AP as a gambling BUSINESS and you will realize this isnt about having fun. Its about doing WORK to turn a profit.
Quote: SingleCoinVP
Thanks for the thorough explanation. I will calculate the royal value required to make a 97% game positive. According to my VPW software a 10,000 coin royal progressive would be 101% on these games. Perhaps I will see one that large some day?
I use a simple approximation. If the Royal is double its normal 4000 coins it is worth about 2%. So every 2000 coins is worth about 1%. A 97% game would need to be up about 6000 coins to be positive. Obviously it varies slightly by paytable but it is a reasonable approximation.
It's not all bad. We enjoy the casino as a cheap hobby. We have added to our bankroll over the years. It gives us another incentive to save. It's currently much more than we will ever need to play the game. This isolates us from the swings of the game. Even playing quarters, they can be in the thousands. We enjoy our casino mini vacations and road trips. We have seen the country and visited a lot of casinos.
Odds and math are important to us as well. It lets us know the differences between games. We choose our games by their entertainment value and the ability to play longer with our money. What's annoying about these forums is they don't normally allow players like us to be part of the discussion. This eliminates 98% of the players out there. We all have an interest in how an AP beats the casino. We all don't want to work that hard.
Suppose one is playing a 9-6 Jacks or Better progressive where the current jackpot is 6000 coins. Proper play gives an EV of 1.006513 with the probability of hitting a Royal at 0.0000301253. When you take out the EV contribution of the Royal, the EV is 0.825801. The reason I mention this is the progressive is different from normal VP in that it is a winner-take-all and the jackpot resets, often to a value far less than the normal Royal payout (e.g., Playtech’s Megajacks resets to 1625 coins, at least it did back in the day.)
Let’s assume two people can’t hit the Jackpot at the same instance. When someone finally hits the jackpot, the losers were effectively playing a 0.866129 EV game (this adds back a Royal at the reset point – using 1625 as an example). And as the number of players increases, the chance of any one person hitting the Royal first decreases.
Has anyone quantified this to get the actual EV of chasing a progressive as a function of the number of players involved?
Great question. Here's another way of asking it. Suppose there are two casinos in the same town with an identical progressive. One of the casinos is always full of players. The other has less players. Is it better to go for the progressive at the busy casino or the nearly empty one?Quote: GaryJKoehlerHas anyone quantified this to get the actual EV of chasing a progressive as a function of the number of players involved?
Quote: SingleCoinVPGreat information. I doubt I'll ever see one that large. If I do, it will be nice to know I'm playing an advantage game for once. Maximizing machine time and positive return is something I can only dream about. If I lived down the street from Red Rock or South Point, this may be possible. As it is, I have to pay more attention to the cost of play. On our machines, every additional dollar played adds to the casino's bottom line.
It's not all bad. We enjoy the casino as a cheap hobby. We have added to our bankroll over the years. It gives us another incentive to save. It's currently much more than we will ever need to play the game. This isolates us from the swings of the game. Even playing quarters, they can be in the thousands. We enjoy our casino mini vacations and road trips. We have seen the country and visited a lot of casinos.
Odds and math are important to us as well. It lets us know the differences between games. We choose our games by their entertainment value and the ability to play longer with our money. What's annoying about these forums is they don't normally allow players like us to be part of the discussion. This eliminates 98% of the players out there. We all have an interest in how an AP beats the casino. We all don't want to work that hard.
Good, thoughtful post. Remember, though, many of those games turn +EV for you well before the ACTUAL game turns +EV. Especially for you, who seems to value the comps you get, If the GAME is break even then you are doing well by just adding comps.
In a previous post you lamented that you will never see a progressive with payouts high enough to get you over 101%. Possibly true, because once it gets that high, then factor in comps, the AP's will be all over it!
Enjoy your games!
We use our room comps as travel vacations. Our retired friends are taking cruses or traveling around the world. We play video poker. Between the Hard Rocks, Caesars and MLife, we can stay free in most major cities. We play during the week when the casino is slow. The Florida Hard Rock comps are especially good for us. They expire quickly which benefits locals. They charge us zero taxes on our rooms, something no other casino does.
There was a time that I thought comps had no value. Not any more. One thing that is unique is the way they handle comps at the Mohegan Sun in Connecticut. The machines are labeled. You can choose between better odds and full comps. I think more casinos should adopt this practice.
It's better for an AP to play whatever location you're playing at since you'll probably be playing one coin contributing to the meter movement and you will never have the opportunity to take the progressive down. Thank you very much.Quote: SingleCoinVPGreat question. Here's another way of asking it. Suppose there are two casinos in the same town with an identical progressive. One of the casinos is always full of players. The other has less players. Is it better to go for the progressive at the busy casino or the nearly empty one?
What do you do when you are faced with a 97% video poker game? You say you don't play. Fair enough. I play the game small enough so I don't care what happens. You may walk across the street and play a $5 progressive with a positive EV. I hope you win. If not, I'll be thousands of dollars ahead of you that day.Quote: AxelWolfIt's better for an AP to play whatever location you're playing at since you'll probably be playing one coin contributing to the meter movement and you will never have the opportunity to take the progressive down. Thank you very much.
You will then say, "What happens today doesn't matter!". I hope you live long enough to verify that statement. What the math says is you will win in the long term. No one knows how long that is. I asked Bob Dancer that question once. He told me I might get hit by a bus on the way to the casino. Will you die a winner or a loser? Only God can answer that question.
Some of the stuff you say is just kind of silly. I guess that's understandable since you know nothing about Advantage Play or the math behind it.Quote: SingleCoinVPWhat do you do when you are faced with a 97% video poker game? You say you don't play. Fair enough. I play the game small enough so I don't care what happens. You may walk across the street and play a $5 progressive with a positive EV. I hope you win. If not, I'll be thousands of dollars ahead of you that day.
You will then say, "What happens today doesn't matter!". I hope you live long enough to verify that statement. What the math says is you will win in the long term. No one knows how long that is. I asked Bob Dancer that question once. He told me I might get hit by a bus on the way to the casino. Will you die a winner or a loser? Only God can answer that question.
Here's the thing, you think somehow it takes the ultimate long run to gain a profit. There's formulas and simulations that can give you a degree of confidence that you'll be ahead(or down if you're playing - EV) over X number of hands. There are lots of factors that go into that of course. All Advantage players operate differently, but for the most part, I would say the vast majority of them usually play things where it's extremely likely they will be ahead at the end of the year.
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You mentioned that non Advantage players have a hard time talking about entertainment play but that's just not true, there are plenty of people that talk about via trip reports and various other things all the time and no one even comes close to shaming them. Why are people singlecoining you out? Because, we're not stupid and your innocent act isn't working on us. It's obviously you're not really here to talk about that you're here attempting to agitate and annoy Advantage Players with nonsense. Quit trying to convince everyone your way of playing is the bee's knees. I'm sorry to say, but there is not much admiration for someone rattling on about the best way to lose less money, especially how to spend 300000 hands worth of time in a casino playing one quarter out of time for an all but guaranteed loss at the end of the year.
Quote: AxelWolfWhy are people singlecoining you out?
Awesome.
I rated the thread 5 stars, but may drop down to 1 if I lose too much time on it.
There were two snorkelers/deep sea divers. One loved to see the fish and sea life in their natural habitat. The freedom of the ocean was everything to him.
The other was specifically on a mission every time he dived to locate buried treasure.
The recreational diver spent a lot of money on his hobby and one day asked the treasure hunter how it could be done for profit.
The treasure hunter explained advantage diving required lots of preparation, study of maps, historical tomes and wind and sea current mathematical computations. By the time an opportunity was deemed worthwhile months could go by. Then traveling to the sight and hoping the opportunity bore fruit or was not plundered already by another treasure hunter.
Upon hearing this the recreational Diver scoffed. That was too much work and took away from the enjoyment of diving. There was seemingly little chance to profit over time and such work cost money. Unless the opportunity required little travel and hardly any research the recreational diver had no interest in diving for treasure.
"There appear to be no opportunities so I am going back to having fun diving and viewing the little fishies" upon which the recreational diver went back to spending money with no hope of ever making s profit and continued to scoff at the treasure seeker
The treasure hunter shrugged and hung up his cellphone, and returned to prepping his Oxygen tank and scuba gear for his dive into the Egyptian Fleetship at the ocean floor bottom where his sonar showed thoussnds of gold coins.
"Thank you, Golden Egypt," he said and dived in.
Before I put up my hard earned money, I need more than words. For example, Procter and Gamble has paid a quarterly dividend since 1890. They have increased their dividend each time. The stock has split six times. The current annual yield is 3.6%. This return does not require skill, intelligence, physical endurance, mental effort or luck. It's as close to a guarantee as you can get.
Why would I risk my money in a casino when an opportunity like this exists? When I go to a casino, I am not under any illusions of getting rich. I prefer to believe they are going to clean out my wallet, so I play as small as possible. If I make money, it's a complete surprise. As long as they give me my money's worth, I will continue to play their game. If they stop, so will I.
Obviously, I enjoy going to a casino or I wouldn't go. Trying to gain an edge on a multi billion dollar industry that holds all the cards is not pleasant. If you continue to beat your head against the wall, eventually you will feel the pain.
Quote: SingleCoinVPI am not attempting to convince anyone to play like I do. I am a quarter player who plays video poker for the enjoyment it provides regardless of profit. The only thing I know about Advantage play is what I read and what other's tell me. They say if I play only when a positive opportunity exists, I will beat the casino. I ask them to give me an example of a positive opportunity. They tell me it's a secret. I ask how many players beat the casino? They say not many. I ask if there is any guarantee they will win. They say no, but they assure me they do. I'm OK with those answers.
Before I put up my hard earned money, I need more than words. For example, Procter and Gamble has paid a quarterly dividend since 1890. They have increased their dividend each time. The stock has split six times. The current annual yield is 3.6%. This return does not require skill, intelligence, physical endurance, mental effort or luck. It's as close to a guarantee as you can get.
Why would I risk my money in a casino when an opportunity like this exists? When I go to a casino, I am not under any illusions of getting rich. I prefer to believe they are going to clean out my wallet, so I play as small as possible. If I make money, it's a complete surprise. As long as they give me my money's worth, I will continue to play their game. If they stop, so will I.
Obviously, I enjoy going to a casino or I wouldn't go. Trying to gain an edge on a multi billion dollar industry that holds all the cards is not pleasant. If you continue to beat your head against the wall, eventually you will feel the pain.
I can see why you like doing the same thing over and over even though it's a loser for you.
I don't consider the money I give to the casino as a loss. I consider it a cost of admission.Quote: MaxPenI can see why you like doing the same thing over an over even though it's a loser for you.
Quote: SingleCoinVPI don't consider the money I give to the casino as a loss. I consider it a cost of admission.
Like everybody here doesn't know that already.😂
How I play video poker allows me to enjoy the casino at a discount. I play all the video poker I want without any regrets. It took me many years to learn that a losing game is the same at 25 cents a hand and $5 a hand. The only difference is the cost to play. I am representative of the majority of recreational players who don't have the skills and opportunities of a Bob Dancer. All we want is some entertainment that does end in empty pockets 9 out of 10 times.
If that's the case we should be brain dead by now after playing 300k hands of VP a year.Quote: SingleCoinVPIf you continue to beat your head against the wall, eventually you will feel the pain.
Given the fact that you keep banging your head against the forum walls repeating basically the same thing leads me to believe you're extra special.
I don't think so. There are millions of players like me. The difference is they don't post on gambling forums. I realize what I post annoys a few gamblers. No one likes to be told they are fighting a losing battle. They want to believe they can beat the odds. If you knew for certain that you were going to lose long term, would you still play? If you chose to play, would you play bigger or smaller? I believe you would say you don't play bad games and you would be right. I do the next best thing by playing so small my cost is negligible. Why this seems to infuriate some people is beyond me.Quote: AxelWolfGiven the fact that you keep banging your head against the forum walls repeating basically the same thing leads me to believe you're extra special.
So why do I talk about playing negative VP games? Because the majority of us do. Typically these forums are dominated by AP discussions. Wouldn't discussing the games the majority of us play be more relevant?
Quote: mcallister3200JFC it’s amazing, 112 different ways to make a post have the exact same content.
Now now, Phil did talk about the Villages for a few posts here, and I thought that was pretty insightful.
But this is what mostly happened at videopoker.com, and multiply that by a factor of 20 ot so. He was told repeatedly to stop rehashing the same topics, he refused to listen, and got a 6 month suspension out of it. Forum traffic there is down significantly since his suspension because debating his "recreational play" thoughts or his criticisms of Bob Dancer is currently unavailable.
Hopefully he is at least really 72.Quote: AxelWolfIf that's the case we should be brain dead by now after playing 300k hands of VP a year.
Given the fact that you keep banging your head against the forum walls repeating basically the same thing leads me to believe you're extra special.
There isn't much more that can be said about advantage play or Bob Dancer that hasn't already been said on these forums thousands of times. What I talked about that got me in trouble was limiting losses. These websites cost a lot of money to build and administer. Videopoker.com is ultimately paid for by machine manufacturers, casinos and industry sponsors. None of them benefit from talk of losing. They prosper when players believe they can be winners while casinos continue to cut the odds and comps.Quote: tringlomaneForum traffic there is down significantly since his suspension because debating his "recreational play" thoughts or his criticisms of Bob Dancer is currently unavailable.
Forum traffic is down because players see what's happening to their results and are tired of being told it's their own fault. When all the casino games in the world are 97% or worse, will you quit going to the casino? A majority of us are already there.
JFC??Quote: tringlomaneNow now, Phil did talk about the Villages for a few posts here, and I thought that was pretty insightful.
But this is what mostly happened at videopoker.com, and multiply that by a factor of 20 ot so. He was told repeatedly to stop rehashing the same topics, he refused to listen, and got a 6 month suspension out of it. Forum traffic there is down significantly since his suspension because debating his "recreational play" thoughts or his criticisms of Bob Dancer is currently unavailable.
I'm sure it would play OCCASIONALLY for entertainment in the same way I might put a quarter into a video game. I mess around with negative EV stuff once in awhile, especially if I'm sitting down someplace waiting for someone or I want to get a drink and I'm just messing around. I certainly wouldn't play 300,000 hands a year.Quote: SingleCoinVPI don't think so. There are millions of players like me. The difference is they don't post on gambling forums. I realize what I post annoys a few gamblers. No one likes to be told they are fighting a losing battle. They want to believe they can beat the odds. If you knew for certain that you were going to lose long term, would you still play? If you chose to play, would you play bigger or smaller? I believe you would say you don't play bad games and you would be right. I do the next best thing by playing so small my cost is negligible. Why this seems to infuriate some people is beyond me.
So why do I talk about playing negative VP games? Because the majority of us do. Typically these forums are dominated by AP discussions. Wouldn't discussing the games the majority of us play be more relevant?
No one cares if you play negative expectation games or how much time you spend playing them, it's how you come across. I'm not even sure if I can explain more than I have already. You are passive aggressive towards Advantage Players.
I am sorry if I come across that way. It's difficult to express your true feelings in a post. If you knew me, you would know I am not aggressive towards anyone.Quote: AxelWolfNo one cares if you play negative expectation games or how much time you spend playing them, it's how you come across. I'm not even sure if I can explain more than I have already. You are passive aggressive towards Advantage Players.
There was a time when I felt I had a small chance of at least breaking even playing video poker. Even Biloxi had 9/6 Jacks or Better. I was a serious dollar player in those days. I did well and received a lot of mailers and offers. My wife and I took advantage of many of them. Most likely, that's why we still get so many. After the financial crisis, things changed. 9/6 games became 9/5. A year later they became 8/5. Now they are 7/5. The Tampa Hard Rock recently down graded all their quarter to dollar games to 97%. I should quit the game and find something else to do with my time. Instead, I play as small as possible to limit the damage.
In the Southeast video poker as a profit producer is dead. This is obvious to anyone who has checked the odds in the last few years. How you play now is more about how much you are willing to pay. I have nothing against APs. They have a tough road ahead of them. I suspect many of them have already switched to other opportunities. I am not concerned about them either. They are smart enough to figure out what's next.
I'm OK with a 1% house edge. When I find those games, I play max coins. As long as greedy casinos want more than that, I'll stick with one quarter at a time.
Quote: SingleCoinVPI am not attempting to convince anyone to play like I do. I am a quarter player who plays video poker for the enjoyment it provides regardless of profit. The only thing I know about Advantage play is what I read and what other's tell me. They say if I play only when a positive opportunity exists, I will beat the casino. I ask them to give me an example of a positive opportunity. They tell me it's a secret. I ask how many players beat the casino? They say not many. I ask if there is any guarantee they will win. They say no, but they assure me they do. I'm OK with those answers.
Before I put up my hard earned money, I need more than words. For example, Procter and Gamble has paid a quarterly dividend since 1890. They have increased their dividend each time. The stock has split six times. The current annual yield is 3.6%. This return does not require skill, intelligence, physical endurance, mental effort or luck. It's as close to a guarantee as you can get.
Why would I risk my money in a casino when an opportunity like this exists? When I go to a casino, I am not under any illusions of getting rich. I prefer to believe they are going to clean out my wallet, so I play as small as possible. If I make money, it's a complete surprise. As long as they give me my money's worth, I will continue to play their game. If they stop, so will I.
Obviously, I enjoy going to a casino or I wouldn't go. Trying to gain an edge on a multi billion dollar industry that holds all the cards is not pleasant. If you continue to beat your head against the wall, eventually you will feel the pain.
Trying to gain an edge on a multi billion dollar industry..... There are a dozen or so members here who SUCCEED at that EVERY DAY. It may not be right for YOU, but it is clearly right for them. They feel NO PAIN!
As far as stocks, I agree with you. Requires almost no skill. But does require fortitude to weather down markets (gee, kind of like an AP has to weather bad variance!) By the way, you need severe math help. P and G is around $120, and pays less than $3 dividend. Comes out to around 2.5% dividend.
Depends on how you figure. As of Friday's close P&G was $120.54. Last year at this time their stock was $90.97. Annual dividend 2.98%. Dividend yield 2.28%. A slightly better return than video poker?Quote: SOOPOOP and G is around $120, and pays less than $3 dividend. Comes out to around 2.5% dividend.
Quote: SingleCoinVPDepends on how you figure. As of Friday's close P&G was $120.54. Last year at this time their stock was $90.97. Annual dividend 2.98%. Dividend yield 2.28%. A slightly better return than video poker?
Assuming every dollar you have can only go towards a single video poker hand per year, then must be placed into a ziplock bag, that bag placed in a duffel bag, that bag placed in a safe, that safe buried in your backyard, to be dug up in a years time to repeat the process, then you are correct.
well said for the most part(quit while you're 'ahead'), however, you admit that you know very little about Advantage play so I don't know how you can't even attempt to make a determination about what the future looks like.Quote: SingleCoinVPI am sorry if I come across that way. It's difficult to express your true feelings in a post. If you knew me, you would know I am not aggressive towards anyone.
There was a time when I felt I had a small chance of at least breaking even playing video poker. Even Biloxi had 9/6 Jacks or Better. I was a serious dollar player in those days. I did well and received a lot of mailers and offers. My wife and I took advantage of many of them. Most likely, that's why we still get so many. After the financial crisis, things changed. 9/6 games became 9/5. A year later they became 8/5. Now they are 7/5. The Tampa Hard Rock recently down graded all their quarter to dollar games to 97%. I should quit the game and find something else to do with my time. Instead, I play as small as possible to limit the damage.
In the Southeast video poker as a profit producer is dead. This is obvious to anyone who has checked the odds in the last few years. How you play now is more about how much you are willing to pay. I have nothing against APs. They have a tough road ahead of them. I suspect many of them have already switched to other opportunities. I am not concerned about them either. They are smart enough to figure out what's next.
I'm OK with a 1% house edge. When I find those games, I play max coins. As long as greedy casinos want more than that, I'll stick with one quarter at a time.
Perhaps you hear things, I've been hearing people claiming AP is dying for years and you realize it's stronger than ever. For instance, when they were chopping pay scales, taking out good progressive and cutting back on promotions they started giving out large amounts of free play, some Advantage Players were doing better than ever. To top it off, all the casinos started running 100% loss rebates. The Advantage players who didn't adapt canoe things faded away I took a hiatus during the time it was actually juicy.
I'm not too worried about Advantage play dying before I do. AAMOF I'm sure it'll be good long after I'm gone.
The what's new.... is what's new in Advantage Play.
I've been hearing for a long time game manufacturers were going to stop making games you could vulture, and yet, those types of machines seem to be catching on like wildfire, they are just in a different design than the ones we had previously. I don't do much vulturing so I can't even keep up with it.
It looked like online opportunities we're going to die, but that wasn't the case you just had to go about it a different way. Online opportunity seem to be making a strong comeback, especially with cryptocurrency options. I could go on and on, but I think you get the point. There will always be enough opportunities to make a living, especially since they keep building more and more casinos. My biggest fear is there isn't enough money to keep all these casinos in business.
It doesn't make much sense, does it? Last year we played for a week in A/C and Connecticut. A/C was dead. The stores and restaurants in the Mohegan Sun were empty. We could play any machine we wanted. Solution? Build more casinos!Quote: AxelWolfThere will always be enough opportunities to make a living, especially since they keep building more and more casinos. My biggest fear is there isn't enough money to keep all these casinos in business.
There are places that could use some competition. The South is one of them. Bilxoi had a casino with decent VP a few years ago. The Margaritaville casino was great. Biloxi odds got better because of them. The other casino owners got together and kept them from opening a hotel. This put them out of business and the odds are worse now than ever. If Texas and Georgia ever put in casinos, heaven help them.
As long as gamblers continue to fund bad games, they will proliferate. On my weekly trips to Tampa, I am amazed when I see players play 8/5 dollar DDB. This is a $100 an hour loser on a good day. They pay tax on every W2-G besides. Crazy...
I think taking up a seat playing 25 cent a hand VP is an entertainment bargain. My biggest fear is they will block the coin button to force a maximum bet. They tried that in Tampa a few years ago and it didn't last. Some people ask me if I fear hitting a $62.50 royal flush? I don't because I don't pay $3-5K to hit one for $1,000.
Quote: SingleCoinVPDepends on how you figure. As of Friday's close P&G was $120.54. Last year at this time their stock was $90.97. Annual dividend 2.98%. Dividend yield 2.28%. A slightly better return than video poker?
Do you realize how asinine a question this is? For you (and me!) we have money that we are HAPPY to get our 5 or 8 or 12% return on money that will otherwise NOT be available to us. My saving up this money and investing it this way will allow me to just live on the dividends and hopefully capital gains. The APs however, do not have a bankroll that will allow them to be happy making a single digit percent on over the course of a year. They may find an opportunity that nets them a couple percent but it only takes them one day to get it! And they can do it over and over again! So if you take the initial bankroll of let's say $20,000, they may be able to use it to generate $100 a day. I can pretty assuredly generate $400 from that 20,000, but it takes me a whole year.
Please tell me you can see the difference between investing money, and using the money over and over again to generate more money?
